European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – Australian PGA Championship

2018 Australian PGA Championship Preview

At this time of year in the golfing calendar, some of the best golf anywhere in the world can be found in Australia, and arguably that’s the case once again this week.

Make no mistake, for Antipodeans the Australian PGA Championship is their fifth major, and it’s no surprise to see the best Aussies in the business – albeit Marc Leishman’s name is missing from the trophy – getting the job done here.

Indeed, the support of the European Tour has helped bump up the prize fund as well, and that perhaps explains why the likes of Rickie Fowler and, bizarrely, Harold Varner III have been convinced to travel to the other side of the globe in the past.

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There’s a strong European presence this week in Queensland, while the likes of HVIII and Barbasol Championship winner Troy Merritt will be looking to represent the PGA TOUR in style.

There is a unique skillset that seems to come up trumps at the Royal Pines Resort, which will host this event for a sixth time this week.

Typically, those who can give it a bit of a bump off the tee (six of the first eight home last year averaged 295+ yards) while staying fairly straight (70% of fairways) have an advantage, and oddly GIR isn’t a stat to get too hung up on.

These baked Bermuda greens are slick and contoured, and with shaved run-off areas it is hard to keep landing your approaches in the middle of the dancefloor and holding on.

Instead, those with creative chipping games and who can scramble tend to prosper, and of course a hot hand with the putter never goes amiss: seven of the first eight in 2017 ranked top-20 for Putts per Round.

And so really we’re expecting short game masters to get the job done; perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the talented youngster Cameron Smith took the spoils 12 months ago? He really is excellent with wedges in hand, and is also a player expected to win plenty of silverware on the PGA TOUR in years to come.

When you look at the field, he and Leishman are light years ahead of the rest of their company, and so one or t’other has to be selected in your draft this week.

Otherwise, it would appear that backing the home favorites is the way to go. Varner III won here in 2016, but the Aussies generally tend to have their way, winning four of the five renewals at Royal Pines and 17 of the last 18 in all!

So, with all of this in mind who makes our draft for the 2018 Australian PGA Championship? Let’s take a look…

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This Week’s Australian PGA Championship Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Australian PGA Championship Fantasy Picks

Cameron Smith – $11,500 – As mentioned, he and Leishman are a class apart in this field, and while his compatriot has obvious chances as an elite player, it is Smith who holds our interest.

He has a brilliant short game – ranking 38th on the PGA TOUR for both Scrambling and SG: Around-the-Green last season, and a fondness for hitting little bump-and-runs will serve him very well at Royal Pines.

Three top-10s in his last four visits to Royal Pines highlights his love of the layout and his suitability, and as a young man still making his way in the golfing world the hunger to defend his title here will be very much in the offing.

Third in two of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup events, T7 at the CJ Cup and T10 in the Australian Open, all in the past few months, confirms that Smith has the form in the bag to retain his trophy this week.

As if that wasn’t enough, this is a young talent that is really going places.

Adrian Otaegui – $10,000 – It is something of a risk going for a top-heavy strategy in your draft, but Adrian Otaegui looks too good to miss this week.

The Spaniard is slowly establishing himself as one of the most reliable players on the European Tour, and in 2018 alone he has served up 13 top-25 finishes of which six were top-10s or better.

One of those was his second European Tour title at the Belgian Knockout; the second matchplay event he has won. Now the time has come for him to add a strokeplay trophy to his collection.

The omens are good with T3, T16 and T4 finishes in his last three starts in Turkey, South Africa and Dubai, and that confirms that while he won’t have played much golf in Australia, this is a guy whose form travels.

Ranking third last season for Scrambling on the European Tour, Otaegui has the form and the short game to compete at Royal Pines.

Jordan Zunic – $7,600 – After a pretty poor 2018 by his standards, business has really picked up lately for Jordan Zunic.

He won the Queensland Open from out of nowhere a couple of weeks ago, and then flew off to Spain to try and gain a European Tour card at Q School.

That didn’t quite work out, so he flew straight back to Oz and took part in the Australian Open, where he sat T6 at the halfway stage following a brilliant round of -6 on the Friday.

Zunic faded away from there, citing fatigue, but he should be well rested and ready to go this week.

The fact that he has two top-10s in three visits to Royal Pines – including a fantastic staying on T2 last year – only adds to the intrigue.

Nick Cullen – $7,300 – This Aussie first burst onto the scene in winning the BetMasters event on his home PGA TOUR of Australasia back in 2014 – holding off Adam Scott, no less, by one shot.

It’s been a nomadic existence as a golfer since, but after a solid enough campaign flitting between the European Tour and the Challenge Tour, Cullen returns home in good spirits.

That’s because he has just gained full European Tour playing rights; finishing T13 after six grueling rounds at the famous Lumine club in Spain.

So, confidence is high ahead of a trip to a course where he has never missed the cut, although a return of 31-38-25-22 hints at comfort, rather than huge potential.

Bu knowing his full-time employment is secured for 2019 might just Cullen the boost he needs to improve upon his Royal Pines record.

Steven Jeffress – $6,900 – It’s been a decent few months for Steven Jeffress.

The Aussie has had a good season on the PGA TOUR of Australasia, with some consistently strong efforts particularly in the last few months.

T11 in the Fiji International – co-sanctioned with the European Tour – is a nice sighter that he is able to mix it with more elite opposition, and that was followed by a solo third in the Queensland Open at the start of November.

A steady T26 at the New South Wales Open was followed by a more-than-respectable T23 at the Australian Open, where he fired two rounds under par in typically tough conditions.

A T14 finish here a few years ago hints at a suitability for Royal Pines, too.

Josh Geary – $6,800 – Decisions, decisions.

There are a few other players on our radar with our last pick – the gnarly old veteran Greg Chalmers, who won here in 2014, and skillful Challenge Tour pro Michael Hoey, but in the end we’ve opted for Josh Geary.

It’s been a tough season for the Kiwi, but just recently he has shown flashes of form by winning the second stage of Q School qualifying in his quest for a full European Tour card.

He missed out agonizingly by one stroke at Lumine, but he again played well and that is appetizing ahead of a return to the southern hemisphere.

Indeed, missing out on a card might be a godsend for Geary, who now has the bit between his teeth to prove his doubters wrong. At a layout where he has served up a trio of top-30 finishes, he could well outperform his meager salary here.

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