Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
The 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview
The funny thing about daily fantasy golf and betting on the sport is that you can spend hours trying to handicap the field and find a tournament winner, and yet all the time they were right under your nose.
Rory McIlroy absolutely loves life at Quail Hollow, but a complete lack of form lately suggested that his latest run at the Charlotte venue would be nothing more than a nostalgia trip.
But there we go committing a crucial mistake – writing off a guy who has proven time and time again that he possesses an extraordinary amount of talent that, aside from a few wobbles here and there, is never far away.
And so a trip to Quail Hollow was, perhaps, an opportunity for the Irishman to show off the hard work he has been putting into his short game.
Boy did it show last week. McIlroy gained strokes on the field in every round of the Wells Fargo Championship, including an astonishing +3.14 on Saturday when all around him were struggling to make a score.
That, in the end, was perhaps the difference maker, because as Keith Mitchell and Gary Woodland faded away on Sunday, Rory was very much still there – making putts to frank his undoubted tee-to-green magnificence.
The win takes Rory level with Ernie Els on 19 and one behind Greg Norman in the rankings of most PGA TOUR wins by an overseas player. Amazingly, that number – 19 – is the number of fairways that McIlroy hit all week at Quail Hollow….the lowest ratio for a PGA TOUR event winner since 1983!
Onwards we go and with the PGA Championship just days away, we first stop off in Texas for the Byron Nelson Championship.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Pretty crazy week when your TOP PICK makes the cut, flies home, then flies back to finish T9!
Bryson did just that for us last week, along with some other great finishes on our Tuesday Sleeper report.
Keith Mitchell proved to be a solid sleeper pick for the price finishing T3 with some explosive fantasy points!
The 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Field
There’s a couple of returning stars heading to TPC Craig Ranch for its first turn as the Byron Nelson Championship host.
Hideki Matsuyama, fresh from a Masters victory lap in his native Japan in which he was received by the Prime Minister, will teed it up for the first time since clinching the green jacket.
And another major champ, Brooks Koepka, will also make his long-awaited return after struggling with his knee at Augusta.
The likes of Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and Daniel Berger are teeing up after a three-week break of their own, and they will be hoping to hit the ground running ahead of the year’s second major next week.
Bryson DeChambeau, presuming he doesn’t fly home erroneously, will also be sticking around as will Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm.
Sam Burns, the Valspar Championship winner, has thrived at TPC Craig Ranch in the past and will be a ‘chalk’ pick this week, while there are some interesting exemptions/invitations in the likes of Taylor Strafaci, Thomas Pieters and John Catlin, an American who has won three times on the European Tour in the past eight months.
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s out with the old and in with the new this week.
Trinity Forest has been deemed a bit too easy a course for a PGA TOUR event, and so that layout will make way for TPC Craig Ranch to take on hosting duties.
The Dallas track was designed by Tom Weiskopf and has only hosted a couple of noteworthy events – the Nationwide Tour Championship on the Korn Ferry TOUR in 2008 and 2012, and also the KFT’s Q-School tournament.
So it’s something of a leap into the unknown, although two factors immediately stand out when analyzing the layout – firstly, it’s a whopping 7,438 yards for its Par 71, which means that there are only three Par 5s (and thus some lengthy Par 4s). Secondly, the fairways are described as ‘generous’, and so this may be a week for the bombers to thrive.
However, Rowlett Creek – an expanse of water that features throughout the course – is said to be a factor on as many as 14 holes, and so hitting bombs off the tee without some care may not be advised.
Note too that the grass is unusual for a Texan track – the fairways are the rare Zoysia breed while the greens are pure Bentgrass, which is something of a surprise.
Some of the holes are exposed to the elements, whereas others are sheltered by thick tree lines, and so picking which holes to attack and which to be more conservative on will be crucial you suspect.
Weather Forecast for McKinney, TX
There are some rain showers and thunderstorms forecast for early in the week in Dallas, however those should clear in time for the start of the tournament.
Thursday will dawn cool and dry, according to the early forecast, with sunny spells ensuring the mercury reaches 75˚F by the close of play.
Friday is much the same with sunny spells and cloud, while the action peaks on Saturday – hot sun will take the temperatures up to a toasty 82˚F.
Sunday could see a fairly chaotic conclusion. The words ‘isolated thunderstorms’ have been published in some weather reports, and wind speeds of 1 mph and stronger will hardly help matters either.
Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Byron Nelson
With the 2020 edition wiped out by the pandemic, it’s back to 2019 we go for the last edition of the Byron Nelson Championship.
It was at Trinity Forest that Sung Kang captured his sole PGA TOUR title, a victory made possible by a second round of 61 that could have seen the Korean join the 59 club.
To offer some context as to why this event was moved, Kang didn’t shoot worse than 68 all week and won with -23 – two shots clear of Scott Piercy and Matt Every in T2. Some sixteen players finished at -15 or lower.
The pressure was mounting on Kang on Sunday – he played his first seven holes in level par, and the field was starting to close in on a player that hadn’t won anywhere for six years and who was seeking his maiden PGA TOUR triumph.
But three consecutive birdies across the turn settled the nerves, and the Korean cut loose with further birdies from 14-17 to cement his triumph.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Byron Nelson this Week
With no real knowledge of TPC Craig Ranch, gamers have two choices this week – batten down the hatches and grind out a profit from low fee contests, or go big and assume their greater research will pay the ultimate dividends. We’ve gone for one of each here….
- PGA $200K Driver: Here’s your one dart this week – a $200 entry contest that will pay out a top prize of $50k….and you’ll only have to best 1,111 players to get your hands on it.
- PGA $300k Drive the Green: For a low barrier contest, take your chances in this $3 tournament in which the winner will bank 450k. This contest is more about accumulating a decent ROI, so it’s a good way to saddle up with multiple lineups.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
When we have no evidence to work with from prior tournaments, we simply have to stick with the basics when shortlisting our picks.
We’re expecting TPC Craig Ranch to play very long, and with wide enough fairways this could be a second straight week in which the bombers hold sway.
The green complexes look fairly straightforward on the radar images, and so approaching from as close as possible should facilitate plenty of birdie putts – those comfy on Bentgrass are, of course, favored.
The wind could well pick up over the weekend – that’s another angle to consider, but otherwise it’s a case of making educated guesses as to who could thrive at TPC Craig Ranch until we see the course first hand.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Top Tier Pick #1:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 87.6, GPFP: 95.53 Salary: $11,200)
What quite went through Bryson’s head when he flew home to Dallas from North Carolina on Friday evening, assuming he had missed the cut, only he knows.
Back on home soil and hearing he had made the weekend, DeChambeau decided to fly back to Quail Hollow rather than WD’ing – what a choice that was.
He went from barely scraping into the top-70 to finishing T9, and it was noticeable just how much his iron game improved over a weekend he may have otherwise spent pumping iron.
Few played the final 36 holes at Quail Hollow as well as Bryson, and his extra length – aided by some wide-open fairways – bodes very well in what is something of a ‘home’ game for him.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 1st
- Scoring Average – 1st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
Top Tier Pick #2:
Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 68.6, GPFP: 54.90 Salary: $9,400)
Big drives and mid-range approaches are the bread and butter of Scottie Scheffler’s game, and he continues to knock on the door of his maiden PGA TOUR title.
In fact, the sheer notion that he has reached world number 22 status without winning is crazy, and shows how consistently good he has been for a couple of years now.
A finalist of the WGC Match Play, other highlights on Scheffler’s recent resumé include a top-20 at The Masters and solo fifth at the WGC Workday – the Dallas native certainly has enough form in the tank to suggest a victory is nigh.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
- Greens in Regulation – 33rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 52.0, GPFP: 41.60 Salary: $8,000)
Big Keith Mitchell did exactly as we expected him to at the Wells Fargo – he hit the ball miles and eliminated some of the weaknesses on his game.
His putting improves immeasurably on Bermuda, and while we switch away from that surface this week there were enough pleasing signs at Quail Hollow – including some excellent iron play – to suggest he can go well once again.
Indeed, his prodigiously long driving – if matched by the same precise approach play – will create plenty more birdie opportunities this week for Mitchell, who at 66/1 is an excellent price given that he held the 54-hole lead at Quail Hollow.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 3rd
- Total Driving – 25th
- Scrambling – 44th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Patton Kizzire (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 67.4, GPFP: 59.30 Salary: $7,300)
Another player who has been knocking on the door of better performances lately is Patton Kizzire.
T9 at the Texas Open, he opened with a round of 66 at the Valspar Championship and a disappointing final round of 77 at the Wells Fargo prevented Kizzire from building on a promising start.
When he connects four rounds together, Kizzire should go close, and TPC Craig Ranch could be an ideal venue for the two-time PGA TOUR champion.
He is long but erratic off the tee – some extra room might help – but he is strong when dialed in with his irons and always seems to putt well, so Kizzire looks to be a more-than-fair price.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 23rd
- Birdie Average – 46th
- Driving Distance – 63rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Wesley Bryan (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 52.5, GPFP: 41.97 Salary: $7,100)
Excruciatingly frustrating for those who draft him, there is definitely a big performance in the locker of Wesley Bryan.
Long, but wild, off the tee, Bryan should enjoy the expanses of fairway at TPC Craig Ranch, and if he can hit the short stuff more often than not then his efficient iron game can thrive.
Four of his last eight rounds have been played at 68 or better, so Bryan is doing plenty right at the moment and looks to be a value proposition.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 59th
- Birdie Average – 65th
- SG: Approach – 78th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Cameron Champ (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 52.9, GPFP: 42.29 Salary: $8,000)
It’s a surprise that Cameron Champ hasn’t teed up since the Zurich Classic given that his form was seeing an upswing at the time.
T34 at the Texas Open, Champ followed up with a very handy T26 at The Masters, and so the indication is that he is getting back to the kind of form that saw him land a pair of PGA TOUR titles in barely a year at the start of the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
Packing the requisite length off the tee, maybe now is the time for Champ to return to the winners’ circle.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
- Birdie Average – 49th
SG: Approach – 92nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Sung Kang (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 36.8, GPFP: 29.42 Salary: $6,500)
While we wouldn’t advise cramming all of your lineups full of Sung Kang plays, the $6,500 pick does have one very strong theme going for him this week.
TPC Craig Ranch is the Korean’s home course, and he will have an intimate knowledge of a venue that most in the field will never have seen before.
How much of an edge is that? Perhaps not much, but it might be enough of a catalyst to propel the defending champion to a better performance – at his best, Kang can really play.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 113th
- Driving Distance – 151st
SG: Putting – 176th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
