Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Hero World Challenge
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Hero World Challenge
Hero World Challenge Fantasy Preview
Here we go then: the last ‘real’ golf of 2021.
There’s still the QBE Shootout to come, but that’s even more of a jolly up than this week’s Hero World Challenge – a chance for 20 golfing stars, many of them good friends, to buddy up under the Bahamas sun for one last jaunt this year.
It feels like an eternity ago since Talor Gooch finally broke his PGA TOUR title duck at the RSM Classic, and he did it in fine style – pretty much leading from wire to wire amid some horrendous weather conditions. His -22 winning score was outstanding given the breeze, and Gooch is a player to have on your shortlists in 2022.
Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa was off pillaging the European Tour for riches, winning their DP World Tour Championship by three shots. The kid is an absolute winning machine….
Morikawa will have the chance to add yet another trophy to his collection at the Hero World Challenge, but he’ll be surrounded by a pretty classy bunch of opponents to overcome.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
With no PGA TOUR event last week our last picks segment was for the RSM Classic.
Our top pick that week was Webb Simpson, who although finishing T8, still managed to fire up some solid fantasy points with his four sub-70 rounds.
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Hero World Challenge Field
There will be good times aplenty on New Providence Island for some old buddies.
He likes of Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler and Daniel Berger might be getting a little older these days, but there will still be a frat pack feel to the event in this corner of the Bahamas.
You could probably add someone like Viktor Hovland into that company too, although with a point to prove Rory McIlroy might prefer to keep himself to himself.
Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka will renew their rivalry from The Match, while the likes of Morikawa, Sam Burns and Abraham Ancer might sense an opportunity to add to their growing trophy cabinets.
This Week’s Course Preview
If you’re going to convince the best in the business to tee it up one last time before Christmas, you’d better make the conditions as amenable as possible.
And that was the mission of designer Greg Letsche when he set to work on the Albany course on New Providence Island, and the history books suggest it’s one he’s accomplished with winning marks regularly in the twenties or late teens under par.
Helpful on that front is the fact that the Albany layout features five Par 5s – that will always help to keep the scoring nice and low, although to counteract that somewhat there is a quintet of Par 3s too.
Otherwise, this is your classic resort Par 72, with a Links-style feel and little in the way of tree cover. But even so, the scoring here suggests that the exposure to the ocean breeze is little more than an annoyance, rather than having any impact upon the outcome of the event.
The layout has been influenced by the sandbelt courses of Australia, and so there are plenty of bunkers and even sand dunes to consider, but with no rain and little moisture in the air its unlikely these will succumb to plugged lies and the like.
All in all, this is a pretty nice way to spend your week in the sun while many of your peers shiver as the winter weather takes hold.
Weather Forecast for New Providence, BAH
If you had to draw up the textbook week in the Bahamas in November, you’d probably come up with something like this.
Lots of sunshine, little chance of rain and standard humidity make for a very pleasant week on New Providence, with a top temperature of 78˚F more than agreeable.
Other than Friday, when it could reach 12mph, the wind should provide little trouble either at around the 9 mph mark.
Last Year’s Results from the Hero World Challenge
The pandemic put paid to the 2020 edition of this event, and so we roll back to 2019 to find a rather surprising name on the winner’s trophy.
It’s been a tough couple of years for Henrik Stenson, the former major champion who looks a shadow of his former self. But it all came together for the Swede at Albany back in 2019.
Stenson overcame Jon Rahm by one shot, and that secured his first win on the PGA TOUR since 2017’s Wyndham Championship.
It was a trademark three-wood that sealed the deal, the former British Open champion blasting his version of the big stick 259 yards to eight inches on the Par 5 fifteenth, and that ultimately proved to be the difference maker on a stacked leaderboard in an unpredictable final round.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Hero World Challenge this Week
With just 20 players in the field, you don’t need us to tell you that it’s a tough old week for DFS gaming. That said, there’s still opportunities to be had in single-entry contests….
- PGA $50k Driver: If you want to end the year on a high, how does a $10k jackpot strike you? You’ll need to beat the other 276 players in this $200 contest to win it, but what a fine way to end 2021 that would be.
- PGA $50k Drive the Green: Whisper it, but this week’s slate is perhaps worth taking with a pinch of salt, so you might as well have fun with a lottery ticket of sorts – for $5 a turn, you could throw some darts at this contest which pays the winner a cool $10k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Hero World Challenge
If we look at the roll call of Hero World Challenge winners since the event moved to Albany in 2015, we have a clear template for who might succeed.
We’ve got a British Open champion (Stenson), a British Open runner-up (Rickie Fowler) and a US Open winner (Rahm), a victor in the windy and sandy Phoenix Open (Hideki Matsuyama), and Bubba Watson whose….well, he’s just Bubba.
But there’s a clear template for success in this event, and we’re looking for those wind-loving, sand-surfing, birdie-making types who have that hunger to succeed in a week that might otherwise become a bit of a vacation given Albany’s status as one of the most exclusive resorts on the planet.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 96.3, GPFP: 122.24 Salary: $10,800)
By his own admission, 2021 has been a write-off for Rory McIlroy.
A triumph for him as a family man, the Irishman has paid the price for over-thinking his golf, employing new coaches and tinkering with his technique.
But the Ryder Cup defeat proved revelatory for McIlroy, who admitted that the heavy loss for Europe gave him a hefty dose of perspective. And so he got back to basics….and went and won the CJ Cup in his very next start.
That desire to re-establish himself at the top of the sport should serve Rory well this week against a field who might enjoy the hospitality a little too much….
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
- SG: Putting – 2nd
- Birdie Average – 3rd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Viktor Hovland (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 102.4, GPFP: 119.76 Salary: $9,900)
There’s definitely a chance that Viktor Hovland is going to enjoy his week in the sun a little too much….
The Norwegian seems like the kind of guy you’d still find bombing into the pool and enjoying a light refreshment or two, despite the fact he is now one of the best golfers on the planet.
But if his team can help to keep his eye on the ball, conditions at the windy, coastal Albany will definitely suit a guy who tends to thrive when he’s close to the ocean. The fact he won last time out at Mayakoba also helps.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 2nd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
- SG: Putting – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 69.9, GPFP: 80.42 Salary: $7,300)
It will be a debut at Albany for Abraham Ancer, but he’s a player who has made giant strides in 2021 and will be looking to end the year on a high.
The Mexican, who spends much of his downtime in Texas, won’t mind the wind if it does pick up, and it’s worth noting that he is also a former Australian Open champion – Albany is loosely based on the famous sandbelt courses of that Oceanic country.
The WGC St Jude champion finished inside the top-10 last time out at Mayakoba with four rounds of 68 or better, and so he looks well primed to go well this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 25th
- SG: Putting – 29th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 49th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 75.9, GPFP: 85.00 Salary: $6,600)
There’s a lineage of winners at Albany that have previously thrived in the desert, be it Arizona for the Phoenix Open or on the European Tour’s myriad Middle Eastern jaunts.
Matt Fitzpatrick has won twice in the desert, and he added to his trophy collection at the Andalucia Masters in 2021.
An out-and-out birdie fest is perhaps not his natural habitat, but the Brit will love the conditions on New Providence Island, and as an ‘outsider’ presumably won’t get sucked into the frat pack vibe.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 9th
- Greens in Regulation – 65th
- Birdie Average – 95th
Low-Tier Pick:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 67.7, GPFP: 76.49 Salary: $6,400)
The form of Patrick Reed isn’t anywhere near his best, but you have to respect a player working so hard on his game after battling a major illness.
And he was T2 at the Bermuda Championship, so things do seem to be moving in the right direction for a player who last time out was sampling the desert conditions of Dubai.
Reed loves it at Albany, never missing a trip yet, and with a trio of top-three finishes in that spell he’s all business while the party is going on in the background – a metaphor for his life, you suspect.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 58th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 92nd
- Birdie Average – 102nd
Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge
Sam Burns (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 105.2, GPFP: 125.19 Salary: $7,500)
Since the start of 2021, Sam Burns has won two events and lost in the play-off of another, so he’s quickly building a reputation as an elite-level player.
In finishing T5 at the CJ Cup and T7 at the Houston Open, Burns seems to have a hunger to go with his talent, and while he might amenable to the hospitality on New Providence Island, so far he has shown a desire to be taken very seriously by golf’s top tier.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 4th
- Birdie Average – 5th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge
Webb Simpson (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 87.8, GPFP: 110.57 Salary: $6,700)
A winner and a runner-up at the Phoenix Open, Webb Simpson is another who has thrived in the correlating event and he’s unlikely to be wrapped up in the action at the nineteenth hole.
A top-10 on his sole outing to Albany is confirmation of the fact, and last time out Simpson produced his customary top-10 on Sea Island.
In this company, he will fly under the radar – very handy indeed for discerning DFS gamers.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 45th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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