Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Palmetto Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Palmetto Championship
The 2021 Palmetto Championship Fantasy Preview
Ordinarily, we’d be celebrating the fruits of two winners in as many weeks, although rejoicing at Patrick Cantlay’s victory at the Memorial Tournament felt fortuitous to say the least.
Jon Rahm was leading by six shots at the 54-hole stage, and the Spaniard would almost certainly gone on to complete a successful defense of his title but for testing positive for Covid in an astonishing turn of events on Saturday.
That left the door ajar for Cantlay and Collin Morikawa – who were joined briefly by Scottie Scheffler – at the top of the leaderboard, and they served up an entertaining duel in the Ohio rain.
Both had chances to convert the win in regulation time and neither could manage the feat, and so it was off to a playoff hole to determine the victor.
Cantlay missed the green by a country mile at the extra hole, but he scrambled well and – with a surprise iron play blemish from Morikawa – the pair were left with similar length putts to make par.
The 2019 Memorial Tournament champion drained his in clutch style, and watched on with surprise as Morikawa missed a six-footer to end the contest at the first time of asking.
Both will be feeling pretty good about their game heading to Torrey Pines for the U.S. Open next week – one more so than the other, perhaps, given their Sunday finale, but in the meantime we have one more PGA TOUR engagement to go with the one-and-done Palmetto Championship at the Congaree Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
WINNER-WINNER! With the unfortunate WD from Jon Rahm, it opened the doors for our horse pick of the week, Patrick Cantlay, to take home the trophy
Patrick marks our 7th winner picked on the season and in case you missed last week’s segment, here is what we said about PC going into the event:
It seems highly likely, to us at least, that Viktor Hovland will win again soon, and Muirfield Village is a good spot for him to do just that.
But we’re going to leave the Norwegian on the shelf as there is value in picking two from the top this week, so we’ll get started with former Muirfield champion Patrick Cantlay.
With a smattering of missed cuts lately, Cantlay is something of a sleeper play amongst the heavyweights that take top billing this week, but a much better ball-striking showing at the PGA Championship suggests he’s trending in the right direction.
A lover of Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens, Cantlay also has a happy knack of performing well on Jack Nicklaus designs, so there’s a confidence that he can go well this week at a previously happy hunting ground.
The 2021 Palmetto Championship Field
When you have a major in California the week after, maybe don’t host the warm-up event on the east coast?
It’s just an idea, but one that perhaps explains the weakness of the field that will head for the one-off look at Congaree.
Dustin Johnson will have one last chance to find some form, while Brooks Koepka will get a chance to flex his recovering knee – and probably his social media muscle – before another tilt at a major.
Otherwise….well, there’s an ‘eclectic’ bunch, shall we say diplomatically. Those of a betting persuasion will be able to find the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im and Harris English at sub 30/1 prices, and that gives a flavor of the strength of the field.
Some of the more interesting names comes from lower down the pecking order. Davis Thompson, the former best amateur in the world, makes his first professional PGA TOUR start, while dual Fred Haskins and Ben Hogan Award winner John Pak also makes his maiden TOUR appearance.
This Week’s Course Preview
This may or may not be our last look for a long time at Conagree Golf Club, although those that have seen it have intimated that it could become a PGA TOUR regular.
Those who fear that modern golfers are able to simply over-power real estate will be pleased – Conagree plays an astonishing 7,655 yards for its Par 71, with three gigantic Par 5s (up to 620 yards!) and three Par 4s that measure over 500 yards.
Lucas Glover, a regular at the venue, has made some interesting observations. He believes that even shorter hitters can prevail if they play clever bump and run style shots, and there are a number of Links style analogies to be made with the firm and fast conditions.
The Bermuda greens will run at 12 on the stimpmeter – weather allowing, and there are numerous hazards around including some sizable lakes and ponds.
Here’s a unique touch – Conagree doesn’t have rough but instead features stacks of sandy waste areas, and the emphasis will be on avoiding those. With generously proportioned fairways, that shouldn’t be too much of an issue but this isn’t going to be an out-and-out bomb track.
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Weather Forecast for Ridgeville, SC
Actually making generalized predictions about the weather is an impossibility this week.
The Ridgeland forecast suggests that there could be rain from Tuesday right through to Sunday, although the quantity and regularity of these showers is not known.
The words ‘isolated’ and ‘scattered’ have been used to describe the thunderstorms that may or may not hit the venue from Thursday onwards, and the sultry temperatures – the mercury could hit 91˚F – and humidity make for an uncomfortable set of conditions for some.
There won’t even be much of a breeze to cool the players down – 8mph on Friday could be as stiff as the wind gets all week.
Last Year’s Results from the Palmetto Championship
There’s not a great deal to write about in this section, to be honest.
PGA TOUR officials have confirmed that this will be the one and only edition of the Palmetto Championship, with the regular Canadian Open – Covid allowing – returning to the schedule in 2022.
The Canadian hasn’t been played since 2019 now, when Rory McIlroy went out and obliterated the field – even threatening a round of 59 on his crowning Sunday.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Palmetto Championship this Week
On an unknown course and a week shy of a major, well, these aren’t ideal conditions for DFS enthusiasts. But fear not, because we have some trends and ideas to help with your selections this week, and if nothing else your fellow gamers will be groping around in the dark building their lineups too!
- PGA $300k Drive the Green: Let’s keep things nice and tight with our staking this week, and use a higher-yield contest (details below) to cover our entries in this beauty. For $5 a team, we get a shot at the $50k top prize and lots of other bankroll-boosting payouts ahead of the U.S. Open.
- PGA $15k Mulligan: You can enter three lineups into this $8 contest, and the object is to snare a couple of winners against the 2,205 strong field. The winner trousers $1,500.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Palmetto Championship
The insights of Lucas Glover might prove invaluable when making our draft this week.
There’s one element we’d query – surely those who drive the ball sub-295 yards are going to struggle in the thick end of things, but otherwise there’s some helpful information to work with.
Clearly length off the tee is an advantage, and on approach there are different options – a soft landing from above or a low bumping roll onto the putting surfaces. We always prefer the former, particularly as the Bermuda greens feature tightly shaved run-off areas and will run fast as long as there’s not a bombardment of rainfall.
In true Links fashion, we always like innovators around the greens – those that are able to utilize different ball flights and spins to get their ball where they want it, and so a value-adding short game is also on the agenda.
And then we’re looking for pure Bermuda green performers, and if we can nail all of these elements above then hopefully we will have a strong roster to cheer home in South Carolina.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Palmetto Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Palmetto Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 74.3, GPFP: 59.44 Salary: $10,200)
The words of Lucas Glover immediately led us to Tyrrell Hatton as our main guy this week.
We have to question how motivated and focused Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are going to be a week shy of the U.S. Open – the former lives in South Carolina but his mind will surely be in California, while you know how Brooks gets when he has a major on the horizon.
Hatton, on the other hand, is a different animal. He’s ultra-competitive and still ‘young’ in his PGA TOUR career, so make no mistake he will be laser-focused for the win this week.
Something of a Links specialist, the Brit won’t mind if conditions play firm and fast, and success at places like St Andrews only comes about if you have imagination around the greens.
T3 at Fazio’s potentially correlating Shadow Creek earlier in the season, Hatton also banked a top-20 at Augusta in recent times so we know he has the form to take the advantage of a layout that should suit.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 11th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 29th
- Birdie Average – 34th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 60.0, GPFP: 51.60 Salary: $9,500)
A long and straight driver of the ball, Tommy Fleetwood also has a nice touch and feel around the greens.
The Englishman generally saves his best putting performances for Bermuda greens too, so the hope is that all of the facets of his game come together this week.
Like Hatton, Fleetwood is another who would snap your hand off for a PGA TOUR win of any kind right now, and so the U.S. Open should not provide too much of a distraction.
As a former British Open runner up, we know that he should like the look and feel of Congaree too.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
- Driving Distance – 82nd
- Birdie Average – 84th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 52.9, GPFP: 42.34 Salary: $8,800)
The king of Bermuda should really fancy his chances this week at a course that will suit his big bombs off the tee.
It’s amazing how Keith Mitchell comes alive on Bermuda greens, but the facts speak for themselves – case in point, weeks of nothingness followed by T3 out of the blue at the Wells Fargo in May.
His season-long stats make for dismal reading, but give Mitchell a Bermuda-laid track where he can free his arms off the tee and he often comes up with the goods.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 31st
- Birdie Average – 67th
- Driving Accuracy – 43rd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Danny Lee (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 40.0, GPFP: 47.20 Salary: $7,000)
We were keeping a close eye on Danny Lee at Muirfield Village last week – an opening round of 80 was not exactly what we had planned to see.
He had struck the ball beautifully from tee to green at Colonial the week prior, and so a continuation of that was expected.
Alas, a missed cut duly followed, but we think that back on Bermuda and at a course where shot shaping is a priority, Lee should not be discarded so readily despite the evidence on show in Ohio.
Key Stats:
- Sand Save Percentage – 31st
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 55th
- SG: Approach – 98th
Low-Tier Pick:
Tyler McCumber (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 47.9, GPFP: 38.22 Salary: $6,800)
At a bargain bucket price, Tyler McCumber is an interesting proposition this week.
He is massive off the tee, and yet T22 at TPC Sawgrass for the PLAYERS Championship proves that he has some nuance and feel in his game too.
McCumber has enjoyed plenty of success in South America both on the Tours down there and on the Korn Ferry Tour’s outings to the continent, and one thing that is guaranteed in Latin America is heat and firm, fast conditions.
At $6,900, there’s certainly enough interest to take a shot on him, anyway.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 16th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 38th
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 79th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Palmetto Championship
Vincent Whaley (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 61.1, GPFP: 48.90 Salary: $7,700)
Drafting a guy that is yet to win as a professional might seem like a rash move, but the consistency of Vincent Whaley’s game is remarkable.
Since the Puerto Rico Open in the spring, he hasn’t finished any lower than T36 – that’s a span that includes quality events like the Valspar Championship, the Wells Fargo and the Charles Schwab.
In this wretched company that is particularly eye-catching, and a graduate of the Texan youth scene alongside Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler, Whaley won’t mind if Congaree plays firm and fast.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 75th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 75th
- Greens in Regulation – 79th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Palmetto Championship
Sung Kang (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 40.7, GPFP: 32.56 Salary: $6,900)
There was a much better tee-to-green showing from Sung Kang at Muirfield Village last week, and a cold putter prevented him from building on his T32 return.
A hapless season thus far is starting to give way to green shoots of recovery, with a solid T47 at the Byron Nelson preceding a middle 36 holes at the Charles Schwab Challenge that were played in -9.
But it’s fast Bermuda layouts where Kang tends to come to the fore, as evidenced by his victory at Trinity Forest back in 2019. It seems the faster the better for the Korean, who has set home in Texas – he knows a thing or two about these slick Bermuda surfaces.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 225-250 yards – 31st
- Sand Save Percentage – 106th
- SG: Putting – 145th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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