Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Sony Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Sony Open
The 2021 Sony Open Fantasy Preview
Winning your first PGA TOUR title in eight years must be sweet enough, but to do so in the manner that Harris English took down the Tournament of Champions last week will have been all the tastier.
Heading into the final round as the joint-leader, English showed understandable nerves on the front nine as he looked to end an almighty win drought. But something clicked on the back nine, and he birdied four of the opening six holes to roar back into contention.
With Joaquin Niemann finishing like a steam train and a bogey at 16, the 31-year-old’s hopes appeared to be diminishing but he rallied, making an outstanding birdie on the Par 5 eighteenth after hitting his second shot to ten feet.
On a high, it always seemed likely that English would prevail in the playoff against a disconsolate Niemann, and so it proved as he again birdied the eighteenth on the first extra hole to clinch a long-awaited victory.
Should we have been surprised? Maybe not. In the past year alone, English has served up six top-10s on the PGA TOUR, including high-quality turns in the U.S. Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational and the relatively comparable events at Mayakoba and Sea Island. He’s up to 17 in the OWGR, and that is no coincidence.
English, like many in the Tournament of Champions field, will stick around for another week on Hawaii – and why wouldn’t you!? – for the Sony Open.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Despite a bit of controversy for some of his comments being caught on a hot mic, our horse pick Justin Thomas still finished the week in 3rd place, which overall wasn’t too shabby.
Sprinkle in Morikawa, Im, and Palmer, and that gives us 4 of our 7 picks making the Top 7 in Kapalua.
The 2021 Sony Open 2021 Field
While some of the big guns from the TOC have opted not to take to the tee at Waialae Country Club this week, this is still very much a classy field for an event so early in the year.
There’s major winners galore at the top of the field with Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed battling for supremacy, while English and Niemann may once again go toe-to-toe at the business end.
The likes of Adam Scott, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama very rarely fail to catch the eye, while a top-five last week for former Sony Open champion Ryan Palmer sees him skip across the islands in good spirits.
Indeed, there’s a stack of former Sony winners in the field this week, including defending champion Cameron Smith, Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley and Zach Johnson, and be sure to keep an eye out for young Japanese star Takumi Kanaya, who plays on an invitation.
This Week’s Course Preview
A classic Seth Raynor design of the 1960s, Waialae CC continues to stand the test of time.
It’s chief defense is the wind, as is the case for many coastal layouts, but even so this is still a fair test that when the breeze doesn’t blow, can descend into something of a birdie shootout.
But for context, the disparity in winning scores from Smith’s -11 (windy, cool and wet) to Justin Thomas’ -27 in 2017 (which included a 59) in perfect conditions reveals all.
A short Par 70 of 7,044 yards, with just two Par 5s, those in the field will have to make hay on the Par 4s if they are to compile a winning score this week. With average width fairways, this is not quite the squally test you might assume from a Par 70, and indeed despite the beachside location water is only really in play on three holes.
The Bermuda greens, which run at a fairly pedestrian pace as is customary for Hawaii, are a generous size too, although these are well protected by bunkers – some of which are a nuisance to splash out from.
Weather Forecast for Honolulu, HI
We associate strong winds with Hawaiian golf, although the early suggestion from the forecast is that conditions may be more benign than expected this week.
Temperatures are set fair at 80˚ with sunny spells for much of the four days, although look out for some rain on Friday and Sunday if the predictions are accurate.
And as for the breeze….Thursday is suggesting a 12 mph zephyr, which will certainly keep the players honest, but the early forecast then suggests this will fall to 5 mph, 7 mph and 9 mph respectively for the rest of the tournament’s play.
Last Year’s Results for the 2021 Sony Open
While a maiden PGA TOUR win for Cameron Smith took the headlines, arguably it was the back nine collapse of Brendan Steele that ultimately proved the most decisive moment of last year’s Sony Open.
A Saturday 64 had thrust Steele into the lead, but he just couldn’t get it going a day later in tough conditions. He was still the likely winner late into the piece, however, until a disastrous closing six holes saw him finish in +2 with par at the easiest hole on the course – the Par 5 eighteenth.
As is so often the way, it was the protagonist that forced the playoff – Smith – that prevailed. He had birdied the 72nd hole to force extra time, and in better spirits than the crestfallen Steele it only took the Aussie one further hole to seal the deal. Webb Simpson, Graeme McDowell, Ryan Palmer and Kevin Kisner rounded out the top five.
No Title
In the final round of the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii, Cameron Smith turned in a 2-under 68 to get to 11-under for the tournament, forcing a playing between he and Brendan Steele. Smith would par the opening playoff hole to clinch the win, his first individual win on the PGA TOUR.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2021 Sony Open this Week
These are famous last words, of course, but there’s a lot to like about the Sony Open both from the perspective of golf fans and DFS gamers. With a clear player profile to work with, we can really make our research count this week.
- PGA $600k Resurgence: We may as well go big these week armed with our course knowledge, so let’s dip into this behemoth of a contest that promises $200k to the winner and at least $1,000 for the top 12 finishers – not bad for a $10 buy-in.
- PGA $50k Dogleg: If you’re feeling supremely confident, single-entry contests can give you an edge and this is one with a $5k top prize for your $33 entry.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Sony Open
Webb Simpson, Graeme McDowell, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire….these are just some of the names that have featured in this preview of Sony Open specialists.
And there’s a clear lineage here of players who thrive in the wind and who are handy with the flat stick, and a clear profile provides us with all of the evidence we need in our draft this week.
A slightly more benign weather forecast – by Hawaiian standards, anyway – makes shortlisting a touch more difficult, but all of the normal rules will apply at Waialae and that will make some players stand out from the crowd while allowing some to be discounted altogether.
Missing fairways is not the end of the world at Waialae, and ultimately on such a small piece of land the tournament does resemble something of a pitch-and-putt contest – albeit with mid-to-short iron in hand on some holes.
And here’s a gambit that may help to settle arguments when you have two players competing for one place on your roster. Since 2014, the Sony Open has been won by a player who competed the week before or recently – primarily in the Tournament of Champions, although in Cameron Smith’s case it was actually in an event in his native Australia. If a guy is dusting off the cobwebs at Waialae it is, statistically speaking, arguably best to give them the swerve.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Sony Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Sony Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Daniel Berger (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 82.9, GPFP: 106.11 Salary: $10,000)
Like Im, Daniel Berger was in fine fettle from tee-to-green last week and we expect even better from him this week with a more sustained show of putting.
Unlike Im, Berger doesn’t have an issue with the flat stick and was probably just a bit rusty on the greens in Maui, and with cobwebs dismissed we hope his customary excellence returns at pace at Waialae.
In form prior to the festive break and with some decent showings at this track to his name, Berger can improve upon his top-10 in the TOC just last week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 17th
- SG: Putting – 40th
- SG: Approach – 42nd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 79.4, GPFP: 63.55 Salary: $9,800)
Sungjae Im finished T4 at the Tournament of Champions, four strokes behind English and Niemann, despite losing 0.81 on the greens. The upshot? If he’d made some putts then the Korean might just have gone very close to winning the trophy.
It is something of a curiosity that Im’s putting stroke has fallen off the edge of a cliff, as he has been typically very good since with the flat stick since breaking through on the PGA TOUR.
The upside is that his ball striking has taken on elite proportions – season long, he’s top 20 for SG: Off the Tee and top 40 for SG: Approach….add some putting feel and you have a winner on your hands.
With Im we have a guy who loves Bermuda greens, who is comfy in the wind and who is a bridie machine….food for thought for a player who has taken to Waialae rather nicely thus far.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off the Tee – 14th
- SG: Approach – 39th
- Birdie Average – 39th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Zach Johnson (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 74.8, GPFP: 59.86 Salary: $8,500)
We drafted Zach Johnson a few times prior to the festive period after he showed signs of getting back somewhere near his best, and at Waialae – where we know he enjoys life – it makes sense to follow through on that once more.
T8 at the US Open, top-25s at the Sanderson Farms and Shriners plus T6 at the RSM Classic last time out is attractive lead-in form, and key to that uptick has been improvements in approach play and putting – the two principle factors to success at Waialae.
In his last 12 trips to Waialae (and, take note, ZJ hasn’t missed a trip here in that time), Johnson won here in 2009, has recorded three other top-10s, a T12 and a T14….you couldn’t wish to draft a guy who loves it here more.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 10th
- Scoring Average – 11th
- SG: Approach – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Patton Kizzire (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 75.6, GPFP: 60.51 Salary: $7,700)
While his tee-to-green game is leaving a lot to be desired, Patton Kizzire’s outstanding putting – and the fact he is returning to a course he loves – means he should be on-side this week.
A winner in 2018 and T13 a year later, Kizzire has the perfect game for Waialae as his run-of-the-mill ball-striking is not penalized as much as it would be at courses where straight hitting are key – indeed, if he gets his ball onto the green in good order he stands as good a chance as anyone.
In good form prior to the Christmas break – T10 at the RSM Classic, T11 at the Houston Open, T24 at the Shriners, T32 at Mayakoba, Kizzire is trending rather nicely.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 15th
- Birdie Average – 34th
- Driving Distance – 38th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brian Gay (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 65.6, GPFP: 52.50 Salary: $6,700)
Waialae is the stuff of dreams for guys like Brian Gay, and where else would you find a player at such a throwaway price with course form of two top-10s, a pair of T13s, two top-25s and 9/11 cuts made?
A lack of length is not a disaster at this layout – don’t forget, messrs Choi, Toms, Kuchar and Gomez have won here in recent times, and so Gay will be looking to cash in at a layout where he can truly thrive.
His daisy cutting ball flight works in breezy conditions and took him to the title at the Bermuda Championship just a couple of months ago, and there was a handy look-in at the Tournament of Champions last week – while not blowing minds, he still recorded four rounds under par. Gay is stellar low-tier pick material.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- Driving Accuracy – 44th
- Greens in Regulation – 72nd
Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Sony Open
Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 68.9, GPFP: 55.14 Salary: $7,400)
If Matthew NeSmith got a new putter for Christmas, he might be able to take his PGA TOUR career to the next level.
An imperious ball striker, it’s on the greens where he really falls down and – like many before him – it may prevent him from becoming a multiple-time Tour winner.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that he was much better on the greens in his last start at the RSM Classic (T15), and prior to that he went T8 at Shriners, so things are certainly moving in the right direction for the 27-year-old.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 17th
- SG: Approach – 19th
- SG: Off the Tee – 20th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Sony Open
Rory Sabbatini (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 66.0, GPFP: 71.28 Salary: $7,400)
There’s no bells and whistle, no airs and graces about Rory Sabbatini, and that’s perhaps why he is a perennial sleeper pick.
He absolutely loves these windy, coastal tests, and T12 at the RSM Classic in his penultimate start is a measure of what he is capable of in the right conditions.
There were more examples of it last season when he was T21 in the Sony Open – he’s 10/12 cuts made at Waialae, with five top-30s – and T21 at the RBC Heritage, and it’s trips to favorite venues like this that help guys like Sabbatini keep their tour cards. Hey, that’s the system, deal with it.
He’s little more than a putting machine, but Waialae’s unique contours suit his eye so why not get Sabbatini onside for what has been, historically speaking, an easy overperforming pick for DFS gamers.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 22nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 38th
- Scoring Average – 56th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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