Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 U.S. Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 U.S. Open
The 2021 U.S. Open Fantasy Preview
Did we witness the birth of a new golfing star at the weekend?
Garrick Higgo, the 22-year-old South African, clinched his maiden PGA TOUR title in just his second start – the first player to do so since Jim Benepe in 1988 – at the Palmetto Championship.
It was Higgo’s fifth win worldwide in just 27 starts, which is an extraordinary hit rate given that he is still learning the game.
The left-hander calmly went about his business as Chesson Hadley threw away a handsome lead – confirming how difficult it is to convert from the front when it’s a rare occurrence to be there, and in the end Higgo one by one shot on the back of a sublime tee-to-green performance.
With it, he books his spot on the PGA TOUR until the end of 2023, will play in The Masters and can now enjoy his runout in this week’s U.S. Open with gusto.
As you might expect, the world’s finest will descend on Torrey Pines on the Californian coast for the year’s third major, and if the rumors are true then the players are in for a brutal test.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our top pick was Tyrrell Hatton, who did not let us down!
Ty finished T2 and his game was solid enough to earn a bunch of DFS points last week.
The 2021 U.S. Open Field
It’s a major, and so anyone who is anyone will be teeing it up at the South Course.
Jon Rahm has shaken off any effects of his positive COVID test, and the sportsbook favorite will take his place at the head of the market above Rory, McIlroy, defending champion Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson.
Embed from Getty Images
Brooks Koepka loves a major, we know that, while Xander Schauffele has a handsome record in this tournament – he will be another to watch.
Patrick Reed won the Farmers Insurance Open at this course back in January, beating the likes of Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris – they will have a chance to lock horns again this time around.
Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama also form part of this 156-man field as they look to tame one of the toughest tests golf has to offer.
This Week’s Course Preview
Each year the Torrey Pines venue in La Jolla hosts the Farmers Insurance Open.
The South Course, where the players find themselves this week, hosts 54 holes of that particular tournament, and we’ve seen that this layout has the capability to really bare its teeth when course officials allow.
Given a rejig by Rees Jones and the USGA for the U.S. Open, you can expect an already long and tight golf course to be, well, longer and tighter. The tee boxes will be set back as far as possible, ensuring the stretch will be a handsome 7,698 yards in length.
Some of the fairways have been tightened with a first cut of rough too, while the principle rough could be a thick, bushy tangle as long as four inches in places.
There has been an element of bomb-and-gouge here in the past – Finau only hit 40% of fairways in his run to T2 in January as one example, but with more danger off the tee presumably finding the short stuff will be of a premium.
Even though Bryson might show otherwise, it’s probably not ideal approaching these small Poa Annua greens from the rough – they’re quick in January, so you can only imagine how slick they will run in June.
Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA
It’s a curiously non-Californian summer week.
Don’t be mistaken, it will be almost wall to wall sunshine in La Jolla, but temperatures of 75˚F are not as high as we might expect at this time of year.
In truth, there’s not a great deal to write about – the early forecast predicts a settled four days of sunshine and occasional cloud, with wind speeds set between 8-12 mph….although, as we know, for coastal golf, that breeze can quickly get up at the localized level.
Last Year’s Results from the U.S. Open
It was the beefed-up Bryson who got his bulky hands on the first major trophy of his career.
Winged Foot played as tough as we’d imagine it might, and in the end only one player finished their 72 holes under par – that was DeChambeau, whose -6 was an astonishing ten shots clear of Schauffele in solo fifth.
Bryson put down his scientific approach and instead went full bomb mode – he reasoned, fairly, that if everybody was missing fairways then you might as well miss them 350 yards from the tee than 280.
Opening rounds of 68 and 69 gave him a cushion heading into the weekend, and other than Matthew Wolff nobody could really get close.
His final round of 75 was the final nail in the coffin as Bryson flexed, pumped and powered his way to the U.S. Open title in the most un-desired fashion that had golf’s purists crying at the degeneration of their sport.
2020 U.S. Open Highlights, Round 4: Action Down the Stretch
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the U.S. Open this Week
The majors bring with them greater interest and higher liquidity, which is why the DFS sites are able to offer such stratospheric prize pools. How does becoming a millionaire grab you!?
- PGA $2.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: There are two editions of this contest – one with a $100 buy-in and fewer players, and then this edition which you can enter for just $10. You’ll still get a chance to win a milly and lots of other great cash prizes too!
- PGA $350k Driver: Even the standard contests have been given a monetary boost this week, so if you are a ‘silver bullet’ kind of gamer then this single entry contest, which charges $200 to enter, will dish out $100k to the happy winner.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 U.S. Open
It’s a tough one to call this week.
Ultimately, the instinct is to pick those total drivers who hit it long but deliver a high fairway percentage too.
But then, as we saw at Winged Foot, sometimes there is a gain to be had in just hitting it as far as you can and leaving wedges into slick greens.
We’re not entirely taken with the latter approach – there does seem to be less margin for error with such a bombastic style, and so instead we’ll be focusing our efforts on those who will at least try to keep their ball in play.
Is Torrey Pines form of relevance? Of course it is, anyone suggesting otherwise is talking nonsense. Some golf courses just afford a level of comfortability to certain players and less to others – take a look at the Farmers Insurance Open history books for evidence of that.
There is a uniqueness to Poa Annua putting that really does have relevance when shortlisting picks, and while the jarring length of the South Course and its small, fast greens are of consequence, drafting players without a pedigree on Poa is something of a no-no this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 U.S. Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 U.S. Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 81.4, GPFP: 74.89 Salary: $11,200)
We drafted Jon Rahm for the Farmers Insurance Open here in January, and he didn’t let us down with a top-10 finish.
That extends the Spaniard’s fine run of form at Torrey Pines, and the 2017 Farmers champion is in excellent spirits as he returns to a happy hunting ground.
He would surely have won the Memorial Tournament but for that ill-timed positive COVID test, and the fact that he was asymptomatic – meaning, he remains in fine health, ensures we don’t have to worry about him not being well enough to compete.
Rahm was out on the course practicing on Sunday, and he could not be better primed to win the first major of his career.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 1st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
- Greens in Regulation – 5th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Viktor Hovland (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 82.9, GPFP: 66.28 Salary: $9,200)
Viktor Hovland finished T2 at the Farmers in January, and that was just one of a season-long highlights reel from the Norwegian.
A second career win at the Mayakoba has been followed by a quartet of top-three finishes, and the consistency he has shown is befitting of a player knocking on the door of the world’s top 10.
Hovland’s exceptional driving and much improved short game will surely both come to the fore this week, and as something of a Poa Annua specialist he can be trusted to deliver.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 6th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
- Total Driving – 11th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Cameron Smith (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 78.2, GPFP: 62.54 Salary: $8,000)
One of the better Poa Annua exponents around, Cameron Smith always seems to shape up nicely ahead of a trip to Torrey Pines.
His ability to hit greens from the rough – or let his short game shine when he misses – is crucial at a layout where recovery golf is key.
There’s a long history of Australians performing well at Torrey Pines, and the fast conditions are clearly a factor in that – such speed on and around the greens won’t faze Smith in the slightest.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 16th
- SG: Putting – 19th
- Scrambling – 35th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Harris English (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71.4, GPFP: 83.58 Salary: $7,300)
Harris English picked and probed his way into the final grouping at the Palmetto Championship.
He fell away from the top of the leaderboard on Sunday, but at a relentlessly long golf course he showed his ability for being able to compete even on layouts that perhaps don’t suit him to a tee.
His slow and steady approach will serve him well at a Torrey Pines layout on which others around him will make costly mistakes, and despite being an East Coast boy he does have a history of success on Poa Annua.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 10th
- Total Driving – 12th
- Scrambling – 16th
Low-Tier Pick:
Ian Poulter (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 54.9, GPFP: 43.95 Salary: $7,000)
Another we would expect to scramble, chip and grind his way around Torrey Pines is Ian Poulter.
The Englishman’s template is well known – he’ll hit lots of fairways, all being well, and then fire at pins from the short stuff….if he misses, he knows he has the short game to recover.
With four top-30s in his last five PGA TOUR starts, Poulter can outperform his meagre salary here if all falls into place.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 3rd
- SG: Around-the-Green – 14th
- Driving Accuracy – 35h
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 U.S. Open
Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 60.0, GPFP: 47.97 Salary: $7,300)
Another player that is comfortable scrambling out of the rough and chipping around small greens, Si-Woo Kim is one of those guys with the talent to win a major from out of nowhere.
The Korean also tends to save his best golf for Poa Annua greens too, and with T9 and T12 efforts at the PLAYERS and The Masters to his name this season he is clearly comfortable in big time company.
A resurgent T9 at the Memorial Tournament in his last start, Kim is capable of almost anything on the golf course when the mood takes him.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 8th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 22nd
- Scoring Average – 52nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 U.S. Open
Chez Reavie (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 43.6, GPFP: 38.76 Salary: $6,800)
With T3 and T16 finishes in the last four editions of the U.S. Open, Chez Reavie’s neat and tidy approach clearly yields dividends in this rarefied air.
That’s useful to know given that he performed much better at Congaree last time out, keeping his ball in play and then showing class through the bag to bank a top-20 finish.
There will be nothing flash or eye-catching about Reavie’s approach at Torrey Pines, but it might just be effective.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 4th
- SG: Approach – 33rd
- Greens in Regulation – 60th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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Cover Photo via Instagram
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