Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Sentry Tournament of Champions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview
Happy New Year!
The holidays are behind us, and as we haul ourselves back into the real world the time has come for the great and good of world golf to dust off their clubs and get back at it.
The complete return of the PGA TOUR comes next week with the Sony Open, but first up for 38 of last season’s event winners – plus Olympic champion Xander Schauffele – there’s a chance to creak back into action in the rather pleasant surroundings of the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii.
Yep, golf is back, and the Tournament of Champions is our starting point for (hopefully) a year of DFS profit in 2022.
Last Event’s Fantasy Results
Sentry Tournament of Champions Field
All 39 of last season’s event victors have been sent an invite to play in the Tournament of Champions, and 38 replied by saying ‘yes, I will start the new year in sunny and warm Hawaii, thanks very much.’
The one anomaly is Rory McIlroy, who declined the invitation, but otherwise the field at the ToC reads like a who’s who of PGA TOUR golf. Rahm, Thomas, Morikawa, DeChambeau, Hovland, Cantlay, Matsuyama….the list goes on.
Schauffele earned an exemption, of sorts, thanks to his gold medal heroics in Tokyo, while amazingly the last time Phil Mickelson took up his Tournament of Champions invitation was at the turn of the new millennium.
There’s a stack of players taking their maiden voyage to Kapalua, although one star that won’t be joining them is Dustin Johnson – he failed to qualify for the ToC for the first time since in 2015 following a barren campaign last time out.
This Week’s Course Preview
From a golfing perspective, it’s hard to imagine a better place to get your new year underway than the Kapalua Resort in Maui, Hawaii.
It’s a gorgeous vacation-style location with hot sun and cocktails on tap, and the golf course itself has so little in the way of hazards and danger that this is the perfect ‘back to school’ track.
Five of the last six ToC renewals have been won at -22 or even better, and that goes to show just how this layout yields to the best in the world even after they have put their clubs in the garage for a month or more.
This Par 73 track – no, that’s not a typo – measures the best part of 7,500 yards, but it’s not long in the true sense of the word given the almighty elevation changes….a number of shorter hitters have won at Kapalua in the past, and that’s no coincidence.
The fairways and greens are both expansive in size, so there’s no excuse for missing the fairway off the tee or GIR on approach, and the Bermuda greens run at a pretty sluggish 10.5 on the stimp.
Embed from Getty Images
The only true defense of Kapalua is the wind, but even that is enjoying a rest after the festive period according to the early forecast. A breeze of barely double digits will barely trouble this quality field, and if the forecast stays true we’re expecting the Tournament of Champions to descend into a birdie-making, hot putting shootout.
Weather Forecast for Kapalua, Maui, HI
As mentioned, conditions could not be any better for a return to golf in Maui this week.
Some rain early in the week gives way to a glorious blanket of sunshine on Wednesday, and that weather pattern should stay en vogue for the entirety of the week.
The mercury could hit 80˚F thanks to the wall-to-wall sun, and have you ever seen wind speed predictions of between 5-10 mph at this time of year in Hawaii? If that holds true, Kapalua will be taken apart.
Last Year’s Results from the Sentry Tournament of Champions
A Tournament of Champions victor that wasn’t a champion!? Harris English was very much an a-typical winner of the ToC last time around.
He was only in the field thanks to Covid – the pandemic shortening the 2020 season and therefore enabling those who had reached the TOUR Championship to be invited to Kapalua.
On the course, English was very much a gold standard ToC champion with his high GIR and hot putting, and his run to -25 saw him into a playoff against Joaquin Niemann, who fired 64 on a sparkling Sunday.
However, as so often happens, the fast-finishing Chilean couldn’t parlay that form into the playoff, and English’s rock steady birdie at the first extra hole was enough to secure him a first PGA TOUR title since 2013.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sentry Tournament of Champions this Week
As is customary, the best of the action is to be found at DraftKings this week. And while we suggest some caution for this small field, no cut event – our edge on casual players is eroded somewhat, this is still a fantastic opportunity to dust off the daily fantasy cobwebs.
- PGA $150k Driver: Single entry contests are often the best way to go for small-field events, and what a way to start 2022 this would be – landing the $30k jackpot from your $200 entry, with just 833 other teams trying to stop you.
- PGA $150k Up and Down: The next contest in our sights is this $55 affair which serves up a top prize of $50k. With a smallish field of 3,100 other entries, there will be ample opportunity to scoop a consolation payout too.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Even with the information that Kapalua is a long Par 73, now is not necessarily the time to be reaching for the big guns.
Harris English won here 12 months ago averaging 277 yards off the tee, with Niemann in second and Thomas in third both also averaging less than 290 yards off the peg. The elevation changes help to cover a multitude of sins for even the shortest of hitters, confirmed by the presence of the likes of Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson and Geoff Ogilvy in the winners’ circle at Kapalua.
With no breeze to speak of, there should be a high GIR count from all and sundry in this quality field – the difference will be who makes their putts on these slow-ish Bermuda greens and who doesn’t.
Of course, with little in the way of difficulties on the course, there’s no reason why the best of the iron players can’t consistently hit their irons to within 20ft and create birdie opportunities – perhaps they are the best value in the field this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Top Tier Pick #1:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 97.4, GPGP: 109.12 Salary: $10,800)
With Justin Thomas not putting well at the tailend of 2021, and Jon Rahm not particularly active after the TOUR Championship, for us Collin Morikawa should be considered the favorite this week.
He is knocking on the door of being the world number one too, and whether that proves to be a motivating factor or not Morikawa is a guy that seems to play world-class golf in all sorts of conditions around the world.
You probably already know about his five PGA TOUR titles, which include two majors, but late last year he also won in the desert at the European Tour’s DP World Tour Championship prior to their name change.
Top 10s in both Hawaiian Swing events last year, T8 at the RBC Heritage and a win at the British Open showcase a fondness for coastal and squally conditions, but above all else Morikawa’s electric iron game and vastly improved putting are what identify him as a likely winner this week.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 2nd
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- SG: Putting – 10th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 95.9, GPGP: 106.45 Salary: $9,500)
There are those that doubt Xander Schauffele, and who question whether he is truly elite or not.
Some fumbling efforts while in contention linger long in the minds of daily fantasy players and sports bettors, but the facts should speak for themselves – he’s a four-time PGA TOUR winner (including the ToC), a successful Ryder Cupper and an Olympic champion….all prior to the age of 30.
Yes, he lost two playoffs in the 2019-20 season, and no he’s not as classy an operator as Morikawa and other young studs, but Schauffele often gets himself into the mix and clearly loves life at Kapalua – he’s finished in the top-five here in each of his last five trips.
A player that routinely comes up with the goods on courses with elevation changes,
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
- SG: Approach – 35th
- Total Driving – 47th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 72.3, GPGP: 73.03 Salary: $8,100)
Kapalua offers up conditions that Abraham Ancer should enjoy immensely, and he heads into this year’s Tournament of Champions as a bona fide PGA TOUR winner.
The Mexican prevailed in the St Jude Invitational last year to finally convert his undoubted talent into silverware, and in 2022 he’ll be looking to kick on.
Boxes are ticked right, left and center by Ancer at Kapalua, with his game ideally suited to sluggish Bermuda greens by the coast – the Mexican also yields results when playing on courses impacted by elevation changes.
An excellent putter with a penchant for birdies, Abraham could be the Ancer this week.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 15th
- Birdie Average – 25th
- SG: Putting – 29th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Marc Leishman (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 91.7, GPGP: 107.29 Salary: $7,500)
While 2020 was a year to forget for Marc Leishman, by all accounts, he showed plenty of reminders of his talents last season.
The likable Aussie finished in the top-five of the Masters, Sony Open, Travelers Championship, Fortinet Championship and Shriners, and while a sixth PGA TOUR victory eluded him, Leishman was very much knocking on the door.
Intriguingly, Leishman holds the course record at another Crenshaw & Coore design at Trinity Forest, and he has the game to prevail at Kapalua too.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 26th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 30th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 96th
Low-Tier Pick:
Cameron Champ (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 32.5, GPGP: 30.55 Salary: $6,800)
There was an interesting stat published by Justin Ray on Twitter this week that revealed the best Birdie or Better rate at Kapalua in the past three holes.
The likes of Thomas, Schauffele, DJ and Patrick Reed led the way, and yet in tied fourth sat the perhaps unlikely figure of Cameron Champ.
He’s another for whom 2021 did not go according to plan, but as if to serve a reminder of his talents Champ did win the 3M Open – write him off at your peril.
The wide open fairways at Kapalua suit his errant tee game well, and if he has one of those weeks on the greens then Champ could well be a surprise package in such exalted company.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 3rd
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 48th
- Birdie Average – 51st
Sleeper Pick for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sungjae Im (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 101.4, GPGP: 114.58 Salary: $8,200)
In any ordinary week there’s no way that Sungjae Im would be considered a sleeper pick, and yet in this quality of company the Korean tends to go under the radar.
But maybe he shouldn’t. There are few around as consistent as Im, and he’s starting to add the wins to go with his litany of top-10 finishes – victory at the Shriners matching his triumph at the Honda Classic in 2020.
A player with a sublime all-round game, Im finished T5 at Kapalua last year and will be hoping for more of the same – or better – this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 3rd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 20th
- Birdie Average – 33rd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jason Kokrak (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 74.9, GPGP: 89.86 Salary: $7,700)
There aren’t many Bermuda putters on the planet better than Jason Kokrak, and given that there’s little else to worry about at Kapalua he has to come into consideration.
Kokrak’s true weakness is his chipping, but with the wind forecast to be low this week – and expansive greens to play with – there shouldn’t be many times when he has to uncork his wedges….good news indeed.
Instead, he can focus on his pretty sound iron game and his exceptional putting – two ingredients that can lead to low scoring at venues like Kapalua.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 7th
- Birdie Average – 16th
- SG: Approach – 29th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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