Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Fantasy Preview

What a difference a few inches can make.

That’s the distance that separated Sam Burns’ approach shot into the second playoff hole, which tucked into the fringe of the eighteenth green, and that of his opponent Davis Riley, who cruelly landed in the rough and on an impossible upslope.

In the end, credit must go to Burns for his sublime putt that just caught the edge of the hole and dropped, while Riley’s bladed chip dribbled wide of the mark to hand the defending champion back-to-back victories in the Valspar Championship.

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There was a sense of déjà vu for Burns, who won this title with the same -17 scoreline in 2021, although the circumstances were rather different this time as rookie Riley – marking just his second top-10 finish of the season – made him earn it the hard way.

The PGA TOUR splits into two this week, with the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play drawing many of the best in the business, while those that haven’t qualified will fancy their chances in the Corales Puntacana Championship.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Our top pick Viktor Hovland fell to a disappointing T33, and with Matt Fitz finishing a respectable T5, we didn’t quite  have the Sam Burns firepower we needed.   

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Match play this week will create an entirely new and unique opportunity than the DFS we’re accustom to, so let’s dive in…

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Field

This Week’s Course Preview

Given that Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Kisner and Matt Kuchar are the last four finalists of this event, you can rest assured that the Austin Country Club in Texas is another Pete Dye design that emphasizes strategy and accuracy.

The track is super-short at just 7,082 yards for its Par 71, and that lack of length is reflected in the fact that the Par 5s can all be attacked in two – there’s a drivable Par 4 into the bargain as well.

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That said, there’s plenty of trees on the real estate – taking shortcuts is rarely an option at Austin – and stacks of Dye’s signature pot bunkers too, and given the match play format this is a golf course that hits the risk-and-reward brief perfectly.

The players will also have to factor in Lake Austin, which gobbles up errant strokeplay, and the elevation changes that playing through some pretty stark rolling hills brings. The Bermuda greens, which have been overseeded with Poa to ensure they run smooth, are generally very quick too.

Austin Country Club would be a fun Pete Dye assignment no matter what the format, but the match play vibe is somehow made all the more intriguing as the players work out where to attack and where to defend.

Weather Forecast for Austin, TX

Here’s your annual reminder that the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is a five-day event that kicks off on Wednesday.

The weather forecast features almost no chance of rain – famous last words, of course, but we should be in for a dry week in Austin.

As the golf hots up through the week so too will the weather – the temperature is set to rise from 70˚F on Wednesday to 82˚F on Sunday, while the wind is expected to hit low double-figures mph throughout the tournament.

AUSTIN WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

An event that has served up no shortage of shock results in the past, it was perhaps something of a surprise to see Billy Horschel outlast a big-hitting field to claim victory 12 months ago.

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He needed the help of a sudden-death playoff to defeat Max Homa in his group, having defeated Collin Morikawa to tie level with his opponent in the final round of games.

Proceeding to the bracket phase, Horschel then took out Kevin Streelman 3&1 in the last 16 before downing Ryder Cup ace Tommy Fleetwood on a nerve-jangling 19th hole.

A semi-final against surprise package Victor Perez saw a handy 3&2 victory, before Billy-Ho silenced the home Texan faithful when he defeated local favorite Scheffler in the final by a margin of 2&1.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this Week

It perhaps won’t come as much of a shock to learn that the leading DFS sites generally keep their powder dry at the Match Play – not least because their Masters contests are now live. Even so, there’s a couple of ways to play it this week, and we prefer the single entry approach….you don’t want to be up against whales that have the resources to pick multiple line-ups based on the draw and potential brackets.

• PGA $150k Driver: This single-entry contest seems a good place to start, with $30k going to the winner if you can stump up the $200 fee. In an event as unpredictable as the Match Play, this game offers plenty of potential upside.
• PGA $150k Drive the Green: If you want to hedge your bets somewhat and pick a few different rosters – while keeping your outlay to a minimum, the $5 Drive the Green is perhaps the way to go. With a $25k top prize and plenty of other decent pay outs available, you can maximize your return from the variance of this event.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play  

Trying to come up with a workable strategy in a tournament which has been won by players as diverse as Bubba Watson and Kevin Kisner in recent years is not easy.

There doesn’t even seem to be a discernible need to have performed well in the event before – Horschel hadn’t gone past the last 16 in any of his prior four starts.

So perhaps we don’t need to comb through extensive match play records, and instead focus on those we think might do well on a Pete Dye layout in the South.

It might also be worth considering the seeding system too. The top 16 seeds are kept apart in Pot A, and then they each take on a player from Pots B, C and D. To that end, spreading your salary cap to get two players from Pot A might be wise….in theory, they get an ‘easier’ draw in the groups. Although the history books suggest that doesn’t necessarily count for a great deal.

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It’s hard to get away from the notion that those that hit fairways and make putts are the go-to guys in this event. Horschel and Kisner are the last two winners, Kuchar has reached a final, Brian Harman made the quarter finals last year (beating the likes of Hideki and Bubba), Sergio Garcia and Kevin Na have done well before….that seems to be a theme of sorts.

As a reminder, the points scoring system in your DFS games will be different this week, so here’s a quick look at what DraftKings are serving up:

Hole won (+3 points), halved (+0.75), lost (-0.75).

• Hole not played (+1.6).
• Matches won (+5), halved (+2).
• Bonus for three consecutive holes won (+5).
• Bonus for no holes lost (+7.5).

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play  

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 

Top Tier Pick #1:

Jon Rahm (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 84.94, GPFP: 90.89 Salary: $11,300)

Whether we’re proven right remains to be seen, but we reckon there will be a premium in keeping your ball in play off the tee at Austin Country Club.

Hitting fairways almost instantly puts pressure on your opponent in a match play setting, and finding the rough at any Pete Dye layout will usually leave you in heaps of trouble.

As possibly the best driver of a golf ball on the planet, Jon Rahm should – in theory – have a huge edge in match play golf, and at Austin his extra length should also ensure he is able to hit cloud-scraping irons and wedges into Dye’s small and fast green complexes.

Europe’s best performer at the 2021 Ryder Cup, Rahm also made it to the quarter-finals of this event 12 months ago, where he was downed by Scheffler. He has all of the right tools to be a major contender in this format of the sport.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• Birdie Average – 13th
• SG: Approach – 16th

Top Tier Pick #2:

Billy Horschel (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 84.56, GPFP: 101.47 Salary: $8,800)

He will be overlooked this week, will Billy Horschel, given that he withdrew early from THE PLAYERS and due to the fact that he is surrounded by big name stars in the upper echelons of the salary listing.

Defending champions are often chalk picks in DFS golf, but Horschel may go under the radar somewhat and that bodes very nicely indeed for anybody that drafts him.

He withdrew from THE PLAYERS due to a sinus infection – so nothing to worry us there, and otherwise his form has been very good. In his last four strokeplay starts prior to the Sawgrass assignment, he served up two top-10s (including T2 at the Arnold Palmer), a T11 and a T16.

Assuming he plays to his normal baseline, Horschel will find plenty of fairways this week and make lots of putts….a happy formula indeed at the Match Play.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 8th
• SG: Putting – 9th
• Driving Accuracy – 25th

Mid-Tier Pick #1: 

Russell Henley (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 88.59, GPFP: 107.19 Salary: $7,900)

One of the interesting stats to consider this week is Scoring Average.

Think about it – if a guy is consistently making par or better, then you will have to play very well to beat them in a match play setting. It also means that if you make mistakes, you are likely to be punished.

Whether Russell Henley joins the dots or not this week remains to be seen, but he certainly appears to have all of the tools to thrive at Austin Country Club. He will, assuming he’s on point, hit plenty of fairways, apply pressure with his irons (he ranks first on TOUR for SG: Approach) and hopefully make plenty of putts.

In form, Henley is a former winner of the Houston Open, and so his penchant for golf in the Lonestar State is confirmed.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 1st
• Scoring Average – 3rd
• Driving Accuracy – 27th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Brian Harman (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 63.42, GPFP: 68.49 Salary: $7,600)

There aren’t many players with a uniformly strong record in this event, but Brian Harman has done pretty well in recent years.

He was a vanquished quarter-finalist a year ago, losing to Matt Kuchar, but he’d beaten some quality operators on his way to the last eight. And in 2018, he also made the bracket phase – the standard we are looking for from all of our picks this week.

His game is in exactly the kind of shape you’d expect – lots of fairways found, lots of GIR and plenty of low scoring. Harman’s T5 at the Valspar Championship was his second top-10 in six starts, too.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 21st
• Scoring Average – 55th
• SG: Putting – 56th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Seamus Power (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 74.46, GPFP: 65.52 Salary: $6,700)

By this point, you’ve probably got an idea about the type of player we want to be drafting for this event.

The next cab off the rank is Seamus Power, who – to our knowledge – has played very little (if any) match play golf.

That’s a negative, of course, but the positive is that he should enjoy the test provided by Austin Country Club. A metronomic fairway finder, a decent enough iron hitter to rank sixth on TOUR for GIR and a solid putter, the Irishman is a solid operator.

Reliable enough in his last start on a Dye layout (T33 at THE PLAYERS), Power tends to bring his best form when conditions are firm, fast and windy – a handy introduction as to what to expect this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 37th
• SG: Putting – 40th

Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 

Webb Simpson (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 74.62, GPFP: 88.80 Salary: $7,400)

After a long period out of the game with a neck problem, Webb Simpson made his return at TPC Sawgrass and missed the cut.

But no matter, because he has won there before and played well at other Dye tracks, so we can put the MC down to ring rust.

In his next start, Simpson posted an opening pair of 67s to appear on the top page of the leaderboard, and so his game is definitely channeling in the right direction. 

Remember that dismal last day for the US at the 2018 Ryder Cup? Simpson was one of just four Americans to win their singles game, defeating Justin Rose 3&2, and so he has some match play credentials to his name.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 51st
• Total Driving – 52nd
• SG: Putting – 53rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play  

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 66.71, GPFP: 83.39 Salary: $6,900)

Perhaps opportunity has come knocking for Keegan Bradley.

He was in excellent form at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer prior to that, and while he missed the cut at the Valspar he still has more positivity in his game than Group 11 rivals Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Adam Scott.

A tremendous ball-striker, you know that Keegan’s putting is going to be a problem, but so too is Spieth’s – his flat stick has gone ice cold, while Rose (160th on TOUR for SG: Approach) and Scott (183rd for Driving Accuracy) evidently have flaws in their game.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
• SG: Approach – 33rd
• Scoring Average – 53rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.13%” bar_text=15 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”17.56%” bar_text=”26 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”33.10%” bar_text=49 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”7 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”19.04%” bar_text=”4 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”64.18%” bar_text=”95 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play  with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram