Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship  

FedEx St. Jude Championship Fantasy Preview

Would he or wouldn’t he? In a way, it’s a shame that Justin Thomas’ bid for a place in the FedEx Cup playoffs – and that heart-breakingly close chip in at the final hole – at the Wyndham Championship overshadowed a fantastic redemption story for Lucas Glover.

He’d been well below-par for a number of months, losing strokes to the field with his putter in a mind-blowing 15 of 17 starts.

And then he switched to a longer, broomstick style putter, gained strokes on the field on the greens in three out of five and, finally, got back into the winning circle with another sure show of putting.

The fact that his young family were there at greenside to witness is winning moment must have made it all the sweeter for the veteran, who also pulled a place in the FedEx Cup playoffs out of the fire for himself too. Good timing doesn’t get any better than that.

Those playoffs get underway this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.

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Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our top pick was Russell Henley who ended up T2 and gave it a great chance on Sunday before going bogey-bogey-bogey to finish up the last three holes.  What a heartbreaker!

It would have been our 9th winner picked on the season heading into the FedExCup Playoffs.

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2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Field

So, we have our final 70 players of the season. It won’t contain Thomas, Adam Scott or Shane Lowry to name a few, but otherwise it’s a cross-section of the best players in the world and the most consistent performers on the TOUR this season.

Scheffler, Rahm and McIlroy round out the top-three as you would expect, while the likes of Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler are looking to solidify their positions in the standings before the TOUR Championship in a fortnight’s time.

Tom Kim is going to give it a go – he suffered an ankle injury during British Open week, before carrying on anyway and finishing next best to Brian Harman, who himself will return for his first start since his Hoylake heroics.

Glover will contest the St. Jude after hurtling more than 50 places up the FedEx Cup standings with his win at Sedgefield, while Ben Griffin will have breathed a sigh of relief – he made it in as the 70th player after watching JT’s agonizing bounce out on Sunday.

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This Week’s Course Preview

As the FedEx Cup playoffs get underway, we couldn’t wish for a better golf course to get us started.

Ron Prichard called upon Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green for the design and build of TPC Southwind, and together they came up with something that will surely stand the test of time. Measuring 7,243 yards for its Par 70, this is a long old stretch – given that there’s only two Par 5s – that winds its way around a catalog of water hazards; eleven holes pose some kind of watery threat.

Narrow, doglegging fairways add to the complexity off the tee, while the tiny Bermuda greens run – weather permitting – super fast too, making them tough to find and hold. Only 12 players recorded 70% or more GIR here last year.

Birdies aren’t exactly in plentiful supply, with the two Par 5s and the 434-yard Par 4 first the best opportunities to put red numbers on the card. Some of the hardest holes are the trio of Par 4s that measure in excess of 480 yards, leaving a knee-knocking 175-yard or so approach shot into a small green protected by water and other nasties.

It takes a good week in all departments to win at TPC Southwind – as it should do in an event of this magnitude.

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Weather Forecast for Memphis, TN

Although the early forecast is variable at best, it’s quite possible that there will be some rain around in Memphis, Tennessee this week.

Thursday’s forecast reveals ‘scattered showers’ and a 70% chance of precipitation, plus an 11mph wind to boot.

The mercury picks up on Friday, topping out at around 91 degrees, but again it’s rain and thunderstorms that look set to be the theme into the weekend.

At least Sunday is looking brighter. Sunshine and cloud plus a softer wind will provide some crumb of comfort for the players.

MEMPHIS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Will Zalatoris has revealed that he plans to return from injury this October, and he will no doubt be using the fact that he can’t defend his St. Jude Championship title as fuel.

The ultra-talented youngster finally landed his maiden title in Memphis 12 months ago, defeating Sepp Straka in a playoff in which, no disrespect intended, victory was handed to him on a plate after the Austrian dunked his approach shot into the drink.

But that’s not to undermine Zalatoris’ effort. He simply struck the ball better than anybody else, ranking first for SG: Ball Striking and making key putts at all the right times.

Surprise contender Trey Mullinax had a chance but stuck it in neutral on Sunday – he was the only player in the top-12 not to finish their round under par, while Zalatoris opened up with a hat-trick of birdies before nailing a clutch putt at the last to set up his playoff win over Straka.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the FedEx St. Jude Championship this Week

Although we only have a small field of 70 players to choose from, there’s still scope there to create a handful of unique lineups that – all being well – won’t be duped too many times. With a clear profile of player required at TPC Southwind, this is a good chance to cash in before the much-harder events in the next couple of weeks get underway.

• GOLF TOUR $1.2M Summer Sand Trap: Entry of $25 per lineup might be a bit rich for some, but if your budget does stretch that far then this is, evidently, the most eye-catching contest this week – $250k to first place, with many four and five-figure payouts available, speak for themselves. 

• GOLF TOUR $400k Drive the Green: Of course, if you have a tighter budget then there’s still plenty of options to explore – not least the flagship contest at the $5 price point. The winner will still walk away with a handsome $50k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

TPC Southwind is a big boy golf course where only the classiest of operators can thrive.

Load up the 2022 leaderboard of the St Jude and it reads like a who’s who of ball-striking and tee-to-green prowess, with six of those players ranking inside the top-30 on TOUR for approach shots from within 150-175 yards – a statistic that is tested every week, but particularly so at a layout like this where the greens are so tricky to hold.

TPC Southwind isn’t just a plotter’s course though, because despite its tight fairways and small greens birdies still need to be made – -13 is the ‘worst’ winning score here in the past five years.

The last five champions here – Will Zalatoris, Abraham Ancer, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson – are all class acts in their own way, and that quintet reveals how to get it done at TPC Southwind; you either need to be a tee-to-green machine or an outstanding driver with a reliable scrambling and chipping game.

Three of the last five winners of this event are major champions, and the two anomalies may yet go on and win a big one – that offers the best insight as to the type of player you are looking for in your draft.

Tracks like Riviera, Quail Hollow, Colonial and TPC Sawgrass are amongst those that require ball-striking excellence, so there’s perhaps correlations to be had there, with the most bog-standard TOUR stats – SG: Tee-to-Green, Total Driving, SG: Approach and Par 4 Scoring Average – offering ample insight into the thoroughbreds required in your lineups at TPC Southwind.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 97.5, Salary: $12,100)

At a ball-striker’s paradise like TPC Southwind, it perhaps pays to have the best ball-striker on the planet headlining your roster.

Yes, Scottie Scheffler will take a huge chunk out of your salary cap, but his long, straight hitting and quality throughout the bag on approach means he’s better placed than anyone in this field to tame TPC Southwind – even if he, surprisingly, missed the cut here last year.

But a player that has won at Augusta, TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill, amongst other places, has absolutely nothing to prove to anybody, and really it could be a case of how well the flat stick holds up to determine whether or not he can win this week.

There’s simply no way of knowing how Scheffler will putt from one week to the next, but if he can just find some kind of feeling on the greens then there’s no doubt he has the skillset to put a winning score on the board.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 1st
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
• Total Driving – 4th

Top Tier Pick #2

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 79.2, Salary: $9,500)

If smooth swinging is the name of the game at TPC Southwind, few have done that quite like Rickie Fowler in 2023 so far.

He’s gained strokes on the field with his ball-striking in ten of his last twelve outings, missing only one cut since October. The only surprise is that he’s only won once – July’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

A good couple of showings in the next few weeks will confirm Fowler’s Ryder Cup berth, and he may yet have designs on winning the FedEx Cup outright – TPC Southwind seems as good a place as any for this tee-to-green machine to take his title bid to the next level.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 8th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 16th
• Total Driving – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Max Homa (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 78.0, Salary: $8,800)

A winner at Quail Hollow and Riviera, Max Homa has what it takes to win at ball-striking playgrounds.

The world number seven is a classy sort who can often get overlooked in strong field events – he’s 16th in the betting this week, rather than seventh as you might expect, and that has had a knock-on effect of allowing DFS gamers to draft him at a snip of a price.

He’s not got the best record at TPC Southwind, but those course histories are there to be rewritten and Homa, with three top-10s and a T12 in his last eight outing, has the form and the pedigree to make hay while the rain pours on Memphis.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 7th
• SG: Putting – 11th 
• SG: Approach – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Lucas Glover (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 59.5, Salary: $7,400)

As mentioned at the top, Lucas Glover is very much still an elite ball-striker – the equal of many in this field.

Short game woes have caused his career to stagnate, but that recent renaissance could not be better timed – hopefully, Glover won’t consider the Wyndham Championship as the highlights of his season.

There’s more to come at TPC Southwind if he continues in his recent tee-to-green vein, and enhanced confidence with flat stick in hand is also welcome on these razer-sharp greens.

T3 at Southwind a year ago, this is another track at which Glover can thrive.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 16th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 23rd
• Total Driving – 31st

Low-Tier Pick

Alex Smalley (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 59.4, Salary: $6,800)

An ice-cold putter forced Alex Smalley to miss the weekend at the Wyndham Championship, which came on the back of another MC at the Scottish Open.

But given how well Smalley has been striking the ball of late, it’s no forlorn hope that he bounces back to form in conditions that will suit his smart tee-to-green game.

Aside from the two aforementioned events, Smalley has gained strokes on the field with his ball-striking in seven of his eight prior outings, which yielded T2 at the John Deere Classic and T9 at the Travelers Championship.

Although in stronger company now, Smalley has the tee-to-green skillset to compete with the best.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 32nd
• SG: Approach – 34th

Sleeper Pick for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Nick Hardy (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 57.1, Salary: $6,500)

Although yet to truly hit the heights expected of him after bursting onto the scene with a T14 effort at the 2022 U.S. Open, there have been better signs of late for Nick Hardy.

T20 at this year’s U.S. Open has bee followed by a couple of eye-catching showings since, including T13 at the 3M Open.

Something of a hit-and-miss type in the tradition of most sleeper picks, Hardy is a more than capable ball-striker at his best with a penchant for fast greens – evidenced by his success at the U.S. Open. 

The harder it gets, the better it is for Hardy.

Key Stats:

• Greens In Regulation – 26th
• Total Driving – 38th
• SG: Approach – 50th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Tom Hoge (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 63.5, Salary: $6,300)

A mostly poor run of form has seen Tom Hoge cast amongst the also-rans at the bottom of the St Jude heap.

But he’s just started to find something of late with T19 at the Scottish Open and T20 at the 3M Open, which was his best ball-striking effort in some time.

Hoge, one of the best approach shot hitters on the PGA TOUR, is accurate enough to give himself plenty of second shot looks from the fairway at TPC Southwind – a pretty important skillset given the nature of these tiny and super-fast greens.

It’s rare that quality ball-strikers are left in the doldrums for long, so let’s see if Hoge can break out of his funk this week – if he does, what a treat it will be for those that have drafted him as a sleeper play.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Proximity to the Hole – 9th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 21st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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