Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 BMW Championship

BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

Talk about having yourself a week (or so).

Hideki Matsuyama has won an Olympic bronze medal, been the victim of a robbery, and watched as his caddie and coach were forced to fly home to Japan after their passports were also stolen.

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Hardly the best preparation for the FedEx St. Jude Championship then….but Matsuyama, alongside fill-in caddie Taiga Tabuchi, were still able to get the job done in Memphis.

Typically for the fortnight that the Japanese ace has had, Sunday was still rather chaotic – Matsuyama seeing a six-shot lead disappear as stodgy play, and a mini-disaster at holes 14 and 15, which he played in a combined +3, threatened to derail his title bid.

But Matsuyama was an 18-time winner worldwide heading into Sunday, and you don’t earn such a status without being able to deal with adversity.

So he steadied himself, re-routed his internal navigation, and went out and birdied 17 and 18 to complete a manic two-shot victory; his tenth in a PGA TOUR sanctioned event.

Can we expect a similarly madcap finish at the BMW Championship, the middle of the three FedEx Cup playoff events, this week?

Last Week’s Results

It was Hideki all the way last week, and unfortunately for us we could not make it a back-to-back weeks.   

We didn’t have Hideki on our radars in Memphis, but maybe it’s time we all pay a little more attention to the former Masters champ? We shall see when it’s time to break down our key stats.

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BMW Championship Field

Only the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings make it into the BMW Championship, which means that some high-profile names can get left behind.

Jordan Spieth is one of them: his below-par season, by his standards, coming to a premature end. He has committed to getting the wrist surgery that may get his game back to where it needs to be.

Tom Kim has also paid the price for an inconsistent campaign. Despite finding some form of late, it’s not enough for the Korean to qualify for the remaining playoff events.

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The likes of Justin Rose, Harris English, Min Woo Lee, and Nick Taylor will also be forced to watch on with the rest of us at home this week.

Otherwise, it’s a pretty stellar 50 heading to Denver, Colorado this week. The likes of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Matsuyama himself are just some of those jostling for position at the summit of the FedEx Cup standings.

This Week’s Course Preview

The BMW Championship is a nomadic event played at a different course each year, with no obvious pattern to the layouts chosen: for example, Jon Rahm won at Olympia Fields in 2020 with a score of -4, while Patrick Cantlay triumphed a year later at Caves Valley with -27.

The complication this week is that we get a completely new course to work with: Castle Pines GC, in Castle Rock, Colorado.

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This layout hasn’t been seen since its days hosting The International, a PGA TOUR event played between 1986 and 2006 that used the modified stableford scoring system.

There are some things we do know about it, though. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, Castle Pines measures an extraordinary 8,130 yards – the longest layout on the PGA TOUR rotation.

But here’s the thing: it’s situated at the foot of the Rocky Mountains some 6,000ft above sea level, which equates to an altitude adjustment on the ball of around 10%. Take 10% of 8,130 away and you get to around 7,300 yards, which is pretty much average for a Par 72.

You’re going to hear a lot about the length of Castle Pines this week, but don’t get too bogged down in that – when the altitude adjustment is added, it will play pretty much as a generic Par 72 on the PGA TOUR.

Otherwise, it’s a pretty stunning layout to look at, with some beautiful backdrops and tree-laden holes. One of its chief defenses looks set to be some unique undulations – downhill drives and uphill approaches, and while there’s plenty of sand protecting the greens, the bunkers don’t appear to be very deep or challenging.

There’s some sizable ponds on the real estate too, although how much of a problem these will prove to be remains to be seen – only the most inaccurate are likely to be caught out.

The closing three holes at Castle Pines look to be a lot of fun – maybe not to play, but certainly to watch. The sixteenth is a 225-yard Par 3 that has been modelled on the same hole at Augusta; featuring that tough approach over a pond that has shattered so many dreams of Masters glory.

The seventeenth is a Par 5 that will play, with altitude considerations, to around 500 yards – meaning that every player in the field will have an opportunity to putt for eagle if they hit a clean drive and long iron in; there is, however, a creek that flanks the entire left-side of the hole.

The eighteenth plays to around 514 yards as a Par 4; take the 10% ball-flight off, and you’re still at the 460-yard mark. Like many of the holes at Castle Pines, the danger is on the left, rather than the right, while the approach shot is downhill into a green well protected by sand.

Weather Forecast for Castle Rock, CO

CASTLE ROCK WEATHER

A warm and windy start to the week in Denver could give way to some rain on Thursday and Friday, with the dreaded ‘scattered thunderstorms’ in the forecast.

The good news is that the weekend is shaping up beautifully, as per the early predictions, with sunny spells and temperatures in the vicinity of 87 degrees.

How much of a factor the wind will play remains to be seen – there’s plenty of tree coverage at Castle Pines to protect the players, but even so expect a breeze around the 11mph mark for the entirety of the week.

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

It was his win at the BMW Championship 12 months ago that ultimately propelled Viktor Hovland to the FedEx Cup – and, really, it was a win forged on an incredible Sunday for the Norwegian.

After 54 holes at the Olympia Fields Country Club near Chicago, Hovland found himself three shots adrift of leaders Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick, with Brian Harman also ahead of him and Rory McIlroy tied with the Norwegian in T5.

It wasn’t the most promising of positions, but Hovland played some of the best golf of his career in the final round – ending with an incredible 12 threes on his card.

And it was on the back nine in particular where he exploded: seven birdies in those nine holes meaning that he came home in just 28 shots – ultimately two clear of Scheffler and Fitzpatrick.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s BMW Championship

With the TOUR Championship next week, and then a mini-break in the PGA TOUR schedule thereafter, this is our last chance for a while to get stuck into some prime DFS gaming.

• GOLF TOUR $300K Drive the Green: The classic $5 game is back, with a total prize pool of $300k – and a top payout of $50k – on offer.

• GOLF TOUR $800k Summer Sand Trap: One of the biggest prizes on offer this week is the $200k jackpot available in this game, with a stack of other big payouts to be won from your $25 stake.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

This is one of the toughest weeks on the PGA TOUR calendar from a DFS perspective.

We’re heading to what is, in essence, a new course in Castle Pines, were previous winners range from David Toms to Ernie Els to Phil Mickelson – not a trio joined in a straight line by many common attributes.

If rain does fall and soften Castle Pines, it should play pretty easily – the walkthroughs of the course we’ve seen do not hint at a devilish test to come. Indeed, the layout actually looks like a generic, albeit very easy on the eye, American parklands layout, with lots of trees and a few hazards, but none likely to trouble the best pros.

One of the biggest factors to consider is the altitude. That really can be a factor off the tee (some guys will be hitting 350 yards with ease this week) and on approach, when selecting the right club – while accounting for the thinner air so far above sea level – is vital.

Unfortunately, there aren’t any standard PGA TOUR courses that come anywhere close to 6,000ft above sea level – TPC Summerlin (Shriners) and TPC Scottsdale (Phoenix Open) are around a third of that at circa 2,000ft above sea level.

Perhaps the best comparison is Club de Golf Chapultepec, home of the WGC-Mexico Championship back in the day. Playing 7,000ft above sea level, that event – held at the venue between 2017-2020 – was won by Phil Mickelson, who also twice won The International at Castle Pines. 

Interestingly, launch angle off the tee – and hang time – could also be factors. Mickelson and a few other Castle Pines winners give the ball plenty of air off the tee, while another with a high launch angle (Justin Thomas) lost in a playoff at Club de Golf Chapultepec.

Factor in the switch to Bentgrass greens, and at least we have some crumbs to work with in our draft this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 6/1, FPPG: 95.8, Salary: $11,100)

It might be something of a gamble to splurge $12,300 of our salary cap on Scottie Scheffler this week, given the ridiculously quirky nature of Castle Pines.

Rory McIlroy holds little appeal given that he finished some 27 shots behind Matsuyama at the St. Jude, so we can instead pivot to the player that might be considered the second best in world golf right now: Xander Schauffele.

To win two majors in a year is indicative of his ascendance in the sport, and with top-10s in the other two as well, we know that Schauffele is the man for the big occasion now.

In fact, he’s finished no lower than T15 anywhere since April, and he’d no doubt love to parlay that consistency into a FedEx Cup triumph – adding to his stellar year. 

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• SG: Putting – 6th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 73.7, Salary: $9,600)

Some readers will scoff, but few players on the PGA TOUR are – statistically – striking the ball right now as well as Tommy Fleetwood.

Take a look at his ball-striking numbers for yourself, and you’ll see that the Brit’s outstanding form dates back to the springtime, when he was T3 at The Masters – a mark of his ability to mix it with the best.

Fleetwood ranked first for SG: Ball Striking at the St. Jude and yet lost -1.79 strokes to the field on the green – his worst putting performance in well over a year.

Famous last words, but he surely won’t putt as badly as that this week – the switch to Bentgrass greens may help, and yet if Fleetwood, who has enjoyed success at altitude before, brings his now standard level of tee-to-green play, he will remain a title contender.

Key Stats:

• Approach Putt Performance – 11th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 35th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 74.8, Salary: $9,200)

Born in Denver, it would be interesting to know if Wyndham Clark has ever teed it up at Castle Pines before.

If he has, he’ll have a huge advantage on the field this week – particularly given the layout’s unusual nature.

Even if he hasn’t, Clark heads back to his home soil in good spirits, with four finished of T14 or better in his last five starts.

The anomaly came on the Links of the British Open, but on American soil lately Clark has been excellent – there were no holes to be picked in his T7 turn at the St. Jude last week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 11th 
• SG: Putting – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Alex Noren (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 69.5, Salary: $7,500)

Juicy gains on the field on approach and putting in three of his last four starts offer a glimpse of how well Alex Noren is playing right now.

T13 at the British Open is the best he has to show for it, but the Swede continues to play well without necessarily contending for silverware.

Maybe that could change at a track as quirky as Castle Pines, which has the potential to produce an unlikely leaderboard given its almighty altitude and ‘first time’ status for many in this field.

Noren, meanwhile, is a two-time winner at high altitude of the European Masters, so his credentials above sea level are assured.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 9th
• Approach Putt Performance – 10th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th

Low-Tier Pick

Nick Dunlap (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 64.8, Salary: $6,900)

Believe it or not, Nick Dunlap produced his best approach play performance of the year at the St. Jude – a year that has brought him not one but two PGA TOUR titles!

That’s evidence of his continued development as a player, but also in is belief that he can still make it into the TOUR Championship – given that he started the season as an amateur, that really would be an outstanding achievement.

Long off the tee and generally reliable on the greens, Dunlap will be a huge player on the PGA TOUR if he can consistently bring last week’s approach play numbers to the table going forwards.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 11th
• Driving Distance – 39th
• Putts per Round – 51st

Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Will Zalatoris (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 55.7, Salary: $6,800)

If you asked him, Will Zalatoris would probably reflect on 2024 as a poor season – and yet here he is in the top-50 of the FedEx Cup standings.

Injuries and a lack of confidence have thwarted Zalatoris since the springtime, where he finished T9 at The Masters.

It’s been slim pickings since, but he showed a real burst of promise at the St. Jude last week – a T12 finish with strokes gained on the field in every single department.

If something has clicked in Zalatoris’ game, he will be desperate to showcase his talents at Castle Pines.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 60th
• Scrambling – 66th
• SG: Off the Tee – 76th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Austin Eckroat (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 62.2, Salary: $6,300)

Although his performance was a mixed bag at the St. Jude, Austin Eckroat really did finish strong on Sunday – gaining +2.09 strokes on the field with his ball-striking, and a further +1.69 on the greens.

It’s the sort of form that took Eckroat to his maiden PGA TOUR title this year at the Cognizant Classic, while other highlights include a major top-20 at the PGA Championship.

His form lately – solo sixth at the Wyndham Championship, T18 at the St. Jude – reveals that Eckroat is finishing this part of the season with a hot hand, and there’s no reason he can’t take that with him to Colorado.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 27th
• SG: Off the Tee – 28th
• Putts per Round – 51st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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