Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Open Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Open Championship

Open Championship Fantasy Preview

Like the Canadian Open for players from Canada, the Scottish Open is akin to a fifth major for the Scots – and you could practically hear the roar from across the Atlantic when one of their own clinched glory on Sunday.

Robert MacIntyre landed a clutch birdie on the 72nd hole to oust Adam Scott and win the Scottish Open – his subsequent celebration, and those in the grandstands around that final green, all you need to know about the long wait for a home winner in this tournament.

Embed from Getty Images

It’s a second win in five starts for MacIntyre, a player that hasn’t always enjoyed life on the PGA TOUR as he battles homesickness and unfamiliar surroundings. It’s somewhat telling that his maiden TOUR title came in Canada, a country long considered a home-from-home for many Scots.

He alluded that the celebrations would be long and vociferous, even revealing that he’s head for Royal Troon – home of the British Open this week – when he’s good and ready. Full credit to a guy whose realized that celebrating success and living in the moment really, in such a highly pressurized environment, is a smart way for young golfers to live their lives.

Meanwhile, over at the alternate event at the ISCO Championship, an extraordinary five-man playoff ended when Harry Hall chipped in from the greenside rough to land his maiden PGA TOUR title.

It’s another dual week of tournaments, with the Barracuda Championship playing second fiddle to the fourth and final major of the year: the British Open at Royal Troon on the west coast of Scotland.

Last Week’s Results

What a week to get hot!  Last week at the Genesis Scottish, our top Sleeper Report pick was Bobby Mac! 

Perfect timing as we head into a similar style course for this week’s Major. 

Also on our list last week was Collin  Morikawa, who finished T4.  We finished the week having made 10 of 12 cuts.

Embed from Getty Images

Here’s what we had to say about Robert MacIntyre last week in case you missed it:

“Agonizingly close here 12 months ago, Robert MacIntyre has since kicked on and is now a PGA TOUR winner. That triumph at the Canadian Open didn’t come entirely out of the blue, with a T8 turn at the PGA Championship just prior, and the left-hander therefore packs up some excellent form with him as he heads home to Scotland.

With a pair of top-10s to his name in the British Open, MacIntyre has the game to compete with the very best on the Links – and how he would love to lift this trophy on home soil this week.”

Open Championship Field

It’s the final major of the calendar year, so you can bet your bottom dollar everyone in this eclectic field will be looking to get their hands on the Claret Jug.

Brian Harman will safely return to the trophy while looking to successfully defend it, against a field headlined by the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau.

Embed from Getty Images

Xander Schauffele will be looking to add a second major title to his collection for 2024, while Collin Morikawa would love to land a second British Open crown – hopes of a home win are, perhaps, led by McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and that man MacIntyre.

In amongst the great and the good of the modern era is a host of legends and former British Open champions – the likes of John Daly, Justin Leonard, Darren Clarke, and Ernie Els enjoying another shot at the Claret Jug.

This Week’s Course Preview

Golf fans of a certain vintage may just recall the last time that Royal Troon hosted the British Open in 2016.

Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson – two more eclectic golfers you couldn’t wish to meet – locked horns in a head-to-head battle on the Links, so far ahead of the rest of the field that they were barely in the rearview mirror. 

It was a fascinating shootout won by Stenson, with Royal Troon – for the most part – living up to its billing as a fair test of golf out on the west coast of Scotland.

A nine-time host of the British Open, Royal Troon first opened its doors to 18-hole golf in 1888, and redevelopment work since now leaves it in the unique position of having both the shortest and longest holes on the British Open rotation.

Embed from Getty Images

The shortest is the iconic Postage Stamp, which will play between 99 and 123 yards, depending on the weather on the day. This eighth hole, unsurprisingly a Par 3, actually averaged over par in 2016 – don’t be fooled by the lack of length, as the tiny green, deep pot bunkers and swirling winds actually make this a tough assignment. 

On the other hand, the Par 5 sixth will play to 623 yards – making it the longest hole in British Open history. However, the holes usually plays downwind, and with a wide landing area off the tee, it remains a viable birdie chance even with that length in mind.

The course will play to around 7,385 yards for its Par 71, which is around 200 yards longer than the 2016 edition. Whether that can protect the layout from low scoring remains to be seen….

It’s a fascinating ‘out and back’ course, with the front nine typically easier with the wind at the players’ backs. Coming home, however, can see the difficulty ramp up – in 2016, the six hardest holes on the real estate came on the back nine, including the ultra-tricky eleventh (a tight out-of-bounds line runs alongside the right of the hole) and fifteenth, a 502-yard Par 4 with tangly fescue rough and deep bunkers flanking the fairways, as well as a (probably) blind approach shot into a tight green.

Just 17 players finished under par here in 2016, and while we’d expect scoring to be lower this time round, Royal Troon is far from a pushover – particularly if the wind blows.

Weather Forecast for South Ayrshire, Scotland

The weather can get pretty gnarly in Western Scotland at any time of the year, and this week looks to be no exception.

The early forecast is suggesting rain for all four days of action. Humidity by the weekend is the region of 80%, too.

It looks set to be a cool week too, with top temperatures of around 62 degrees, but it will probably feel decidedly cooler than that in the wind.

That breeze will likely hit 15mph and faster throughout the week, which will only serve to make things feel cooler in what is already a pretty cold few days of action in Scotland.

AYRSHIRE SUR WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Open Championship

In customary fashion in the British Open, it blew a gale and rained cats and dogs at Royal Liverpool – with one player taking to the conditions more than any other.

Brian Harman’s win-less streak had reached six years – a shorter hitter, then aged 36, doesn’t really have a great deal of opportunities on the PGA TOUR anymore.

Embed from Getty Images

But in conditions in which finding fairways and greens was of paramount importance, suddenly Harman came into his own – he led by five shots at halfway, with the rest of the field shaking their heads at how the left-hander had managed it in such awful conditions.

In somewhat easier climes, Saturday provided the dictionary definition of ‘moving day’ – low rounds from Jon Rahm and Cameron Young propelling them up the leaderboard. Unfortunately for them, Harman moved with them, maintaining his five-shot cushion.

It would take a miracle for the leftie to be downed on Sunday – the rest of the field hoping that his six-year wait for a title would weight heavy on his mind. 

Did it? Erm, no. Harman simply nudged his way around on a day when 67 was the lowest score shot – his own 70 more than enough to see him sail off into the distance with the Claret Jug.

Just as a reminder, the last time Royal Troon hosted the British Open, Stenson and Mickelson lapped the field – they finished a mammoth eleven shots clear of the field, with the Swede just doing enough to hold off the American in an outstanding round of golf on the Sunday.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Open Championship

Links golf can be a rich source of success for DFS golf fans if you know where to look. We hope that our roster build will reap rewards in the following contests:

• PGA $2.75m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: It would be rude not to have a go at the milly-maker, which obviously only comes along at majors and other choice events throughout the season. It’s $25 per turn, but there’s a stack of outstanding prizes to be won in addition to the $1 million jackpot. 

• PGA $600k Drive the Green: The effective milly-maker for those on a tighter budget, this contest pays a top prize of $100k, and there’s plenty of other handsome payouts to be won from just $5 per entry.    

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

There’s some amazing trends that inform us about the British Open, and these are so convincing that they are hard to resist when drafting our lineups.

For example, ten of the last eleven Open champions had been ranked inside the top-33 players in the world rankings. Okay, so that system has been hampered by the ejection of the LIV Golf contingent from the OWGR, but it’s still a useful starting point.

Another key stat is that the majority of the last ten British Open champions had a prior top-10 finish to their name in the tournament. No surprise, really, given the unique conditions of these tough Links layouts.

And it really does hold weight that the Scottish Open is a vital proving ground for success a week later – seven of the last ten British Open champions had played the warm-up event a week prior. Playing well there isn’t necessarily a pre-requisite….just simply teeing it up is enough.

As for the specifics of Royal Troon itself, it really is difficult to derive a clear profile from the leaderboard in 2016. It featured bombers (Mickelson, Dustin Johnson), plodders (Steve Stricker, Soren Kjeldsen), and players with previous success on the Links (Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton), as well as those who, even at their best, defied categorization (J.B. Holmes, Bill Haas etc). 

So let’s instead keep it simple: those in form, with previous Links form (ideally in the British Open), who are highly respected in the world rankings, and who teed it up in Scotland last week. That seems as good a foundation as any for our draft….

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Open Championship   

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Open Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Ludvig Aberg (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 79.8, Salary: $10,100)

One of the curiosities of the DFS sites pricing up the British Open ahead of the Scottish Open is that it leaves the door ajar for bargains – and so it has proven with Ludvig Aberg.

The sharper sportsbook odds make the Swede the third most likely winner of the tournament, whereas he’s listed sixth in the DFS salary rankings – therefore, anyone that drafts him is getting a good deal.

He will be well favored, given that he was the Scottish Open protagonist, but the beauty of these major fields is that there tends not be a chalk pick – certainly Scottie Scheffler will still be well drafted, despite a lack of Links pedigree, as will Rory, Xander Schauffele, and others.

But there’s plenty to like about Aberg, the fairway finder who has power to spare. He showed at the Scottish Open that he has the imagination around the greens to thrive in these conditions, while the cool temperatures also won’t faze the Scandinavian – he will love the chance to emulate his countryman Stenson this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 9th
• Scoring Average – 12th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 75.6, Salary: $9,500)

There is a certain reluctance to draft LIV Golf players for majors – it’s hard to know how they’re performing in such a casual, 54-hole environment in which some of the players simply aren’t good enough to compete.

That being said, Bryson DeChambeau was a worthy winner of the U.S. Open – making the best of the conditions, and we know that, historically, Tyrrell Hatton loves playing on the Links too.

He’s a two-time Alfred Dunhill Links Championship winner, has finished second at the Scottish Open, and has four British Open top-20s to his name – including T5 and T6.

What’s more, Hatton has the class to win majors – he’s ranked 22 in the world despite his LIV OWGR shutout; a situation aided by a T9 finish at The Masters and T26 at the U.S. Open. To round things off, the Brit won the LIV event in Nashville at the end of June.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 74.0, Salary: $9,300)

We might describe Links golf as ‘horses for courses’….and in that sense Tommy Fleetwood is a thoroughbred.

The Brit has racked up three top-10 finishes and a T12 in the British Open, alongside a Links resumé that also includes wins at Gleneagles and Le Golf National and a playoff loss in the 2020 Scottish Open.

Fleetwood simply loves these conditions – evidenced by his form at the Scottish Open, with his low, strong drive matched by reliable wood and long iron play and a decent touch around the greens. Some players are just built for Links golf, and Fleetwood is chief amongst them.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 10th
• Total Driving – 15th
• SG: Putting – 49th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Corey Conners (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 75.3, Salary: $7,300)

A handy runout at the Scottish Open confirmed once more that Corey Conners’ fairways-and-greens approach is ideal for the toughest of conditions.

We’ve written before on these pages about a feeling that the Canadian has so far underachieved in his career based upon his ability, but despite just two wins in the Texas Open he’s ranked 40th in the world – that’s a mark of his pedigree.

With a T15 finish at the British Open in 2021, Conners offered a showcase of his abilities to cope with the demands of Links golf, while strong showings in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Sony Open, and RBC Heritage frank his reputation as a fine wind player.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 4th
• Total Driving – 17th
• Scoring Average – 37th

Low-Tier Pick

Ryan Fox (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 59.7, Salary: $6,800)

While some players struggle in the Links environment, others actively thrive.

A member of that club is Ryan Fox, for whom many stellar days in golf have come by the UK coast. He won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022, and has twice finished runner-up in the similar surrounds of the Irish Open.

With top-10s in the Scottish Open – he played reasonably well for much of last week’s tournament, and a T16 at the British Open, Fox actively thrives on the Links; he’s playing well enough right now to take full advantage, too.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 14th
• Fairway Proximity – 20th
• SG: Putting – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the Open Championship

Byeong Hun An (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.2, Salary: $6,700)

A solid tee-to-green showing last week confirms Byeong Hun An’s love of Links golf.

He has four finishes of T32 or better in the British Open, a T3 in the Scottish Open, and several big performances in conditions in North America that can in some way be described as correlating – the Sony Open and the Cognizant Classic amongst them.

The current world number 30, An has the pedigree that British Open champions share, and while he isn’t a prolific winner by any means, there’s no doubt that he has the game to contend in majors – especially those played in Links-style conditions.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 16th
• Greens in Regulation – 18th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Open Championship

Mackenzie Hughes (Odds: 400/1, FPPG: 64.1, Salary: $5,900)

The best major performance of MacKenzie Hughes’ career so far came at the British Open in 2021, where he finished T6.

That doesn’t come as a great surprise, as the Canadian has shown a penchant for windy, exposed conditions before. He won the RSM Classic in 2021, while finishing in the top-five of breezy events in Florida and California.

Hughes is a master at keeping his ball under control in windy conditions – can you remember the Valspar Championship earlier this year? He’s also got the kind of short game that can grind out a solid score while all around him are losing their heads.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 13th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 21st
• Scoring Average – 75th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Open Championship with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo via Instagram