Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 RBC Canadian Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the RBC Canadian Open  

RBC Canadian Open Fantasy Preview

It was an emotional weekend on the PGA TOUR to say the least.

Our sleeper pick Davis Riley admitted in his post-tournament press conference after the Charles Schwab Challenge that he’d been thinking about his sister every step of the way – she had suffered a seizure out of nowhere in midweek, and was taken in for emergency surgery on a brain tumor.

Victory at Colonial was, in his own way, Riley’s gift to his sister – a get well soon present that will no doubt have put a huge smile on her face. It was his maiden strokeplay PGA TOUR win, aside from the Zurich Classic title he claimed with Nick Hardy in 2023.

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At one point, Riley led by seven shots on Saturday – he was seemingly going to canter to victory. But a few bogeys in his round, as Scottie Scheffler compiled an outstanding 63 to reduce the deficit to four heading into the final round.

The sportsbooks couldn’t split the pair before the first tee, but as Scheffler struggled to get his game going, Riley – for the most part – looked at ease as he closed in on a first singles win on the PGA TOUR.

Having set up home in Dallas, this was pretty much a home game for the Mississippi man, whose round of 70 was enough to round out a five-shot triumph.

Of course, the tragic news of Grayson Murray’s passing put a whole different perspective on things, reminding us of how futile sport is in the grander scheme of life. Condolences and thoughts go out to his friends and loved ones.

Last Week’s Results

Hats off to Davis Riley for an incredible win last week — oh and having Keegan Bradley (2nd) as another pick would also be pretty sweet right?

With that said, Davis was our Alternate Sleeper Pick last week and Keegan was one of our five must look Sleeper Report Picks! You’ve got love a good 1-2 punch.

Here’s what we said about Davis leading into last week:

“It’s not inconceivable that players like Davis Riley can knock on the door of a top-20 finish or higher – the sort of guy that can turn a decent week for DFS gamers into an outstanding one.

What’s the upside this week? Riley’s has popped in different departments of late – +1.26 on approach in a T14 turn at the Houston Open, +1.41 with his short game at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson – and don’t forget that he was T4 at Colonial in 2022.

He’s also typically very good within wedge range, and often putts well on Bentgrass. So there’s plenty of reasons to give Riley a go this week.”

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Indeed there was, and it worked!  That’s another winner picked this year and just in time before two huge events coming up!

RBC Canadian Open Field

Rory McIlroy is a two-time Canadian Open champion, and he has a major advantage this week – in addition to being one of the best players in the world, and playing like it lately, the Irishman also won this event the last time it stopped off at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2019.

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His closest rival that year was Shane Lowry, so it’s no surprise to see the Irishman well supported at the sportsbooks already alongside the likes of Ryder Cup teammate Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, and Cameron Young.

Nick Taylor, the defending champion, will fly the home flag, while the likes of Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Hadwin, and CJ CUP Byron Nelson winner Taylor Pendrith will be hoping for glory of their own on home soil.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Canadian Open has, by design, had a nomadic existence during its time on the PGA TOUR, and it’s off to Hamilton we go after a five-year hiatus.

Renovation work has taken place at the venue since that 2019 edition, although the flyover videos and reports from the players suggest that many of the same principles are in place.

This is a less-than-driver golf course for the most part, although nobody told McIlroy when he won the title here – he averaged a whopping 324 yards off the tee, and still found enough fairways to compile a commanding winning score.

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But the rough was – and is, reportedly – thick enough to reward those hitting their drives into the short grass; a notion confirmed by the small-sized greens, which are best attacked from the fairway.

Not only are these Bentgrass/Poa overseeded surfaces small in stature, some have that upturned saucer camber to them – meaning that errant approaches will be rejected via the steep runoff zones, or end up in the numerous bunkers that protect the greens.

There’s some stark undulations and elevation changes too, while some tee shots are fired through tight tree canopies and doglegging sightlines. Yes, Rory won with -22 in 2019, but the next best score was -15, only ten players made it to double-digits under par, and the cutline was -2, so it’s a track at which the field needs to mind their work.

This Par 70 layout will play to around 7,000 yards, with just two Par 5s – these are comfortably the easiest holes on the real estate, with most in the field able to take on the green in two shots. The drivable Par 4 fifth is also a straightforward hole that yielded some 123 birdies in 2019.

Three of the four Par 3s, meanwhile, can be described as tricky, while the toughest hole at Hamilton also happens to be the last – more than 100 bogeys or worse were made at the 18th in 2019, compared to just 23 birdies. This doglegging 446-yard Par 4 has trouble lurking off the tee and surrounding the green.

Weather Forecast for Hamilton, ON

Solid days of rain on Monday and Tuesday should give way to cheerier conditions in time for the first tee.

Thursday through Saturday look consistently similar, as far as the early forecast is concerned. Sunny spells and cloud will duel for prominence, with wind speeds set at around 9mph. 

The temperature will reach around 64 degrees, although the early starters in the morning may be teeing off in just 46 degrees.

As for Sunday, the early predictions are rather more mixed. Scattered rain showers could well be the order of the day, with the wind creeping up to 10mph and temperatures, likewise, to around 71 degrees.

HAMILTON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the RBC Canadian Open

Rory produced an absolute masterclass to win the 2019 Canadian Open at Hamilton – his first win in the event, which he defended (kinda) in 2022, with the tournament cancelled for two years due to pandemic complications.

His seven-shot margin of victory was the widest in the Canadian Open since 1952, and the fact he reached -22 – with only ten players making it to -10 or better – reveals just how well he took to the test at Hamilton.

An opening 67 set the scene, but it was 66 and 64 thereafter that propelled McIlroy to the head of the leaderboard.

In truth, the likes of Lowry and Webb Simpson managed to keep pace with him, but a blistering 61 from McIlroy – which might have been a 59, but for bogeys at 16 and 18 – prevented the Irishman from joining that exclusive club. However, it was enough for him to serenely glide to victory.

Of course, the defending champion this week is Nick Taylor – the first Canadian to win his home open since Pat Fletcher in 1954.

He downed Tommy Fleetwood in a nerve-shredding four-hole playoff at Oakdale Golf & Country Club, winning in extraordinary fashion with an eagle three at the Par 5 eighteenth hole.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s RBC Canadian Open

Assuming Hamilton plays as we expect it to, we might just have an edge on casual DFS players this week – they simply won’t know what to expect from a layout last seen five years ago. So we can draft our lineups with some confidence:

• PGA $250k Drive the Green: We may as well keep it simple with an entry into this bread-and-butter contest – $5 entry gets us a chance to win all manner of sizable prizes, not least the $50k jackpot for finishing top of the pile. 

• GOLF TOUR $40k Full Round Special: If you’re feeling slightly flusher, this $10 game is an interesting option as the field is shrunk to 4,700 teams – but there’s still a $4,000 top prize to be won.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

We’re taking some liberties with our analysis of Hamilton because we know that Harry Colt’s design has been tinkered with since 2019, however there’s a few expectations likely to be met.

Hamilton features unique funnel-like fairways, where the landing zone at, say, 290 yards is wider than that of 320 yards, where they bottleneck. So, you need an elite driver confident of hitting the shorter grass at bomb length – i.e. Rory – or alternatively those who can regularly be found in the fairway, albeit further back.

The greens are small and well protected, which of course puts an emphasis on quality approach play – that, for the most part, will be in the wedge and short iron range.

And the greens themselves could be a difference-maker. They’re Bentgrass/Poa overseed, but the lower temperatures in Canada, generally speaking, means that they can run slower and stodgier than their counterparts in the United States.

Course officials will have the greens in great shape, no doubt, but rain early in the week – and the presence of Poa – means that they may run on the slower side.

Here’s an interesting fact: of the top-10 on the leaderboard at the 2019 Canadian Open, seven of them had also recorded a top-10 at the PLAYERS Championship – a similarly short, tight and technical layout.

There’s also calls for looking at form in other Florida Swing events (Cognizant Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational), as well as other less-than-driver courses such as Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship).

If you want to take your analysis even deeper, Harry Colt is famous for three layouts in Europe in particular: Wentworth, Royal Portrush, and Royal Liverpool. Intriguingly, McIlroy and Lowry – the 1-2 at Hamilton last time – have fared well in at least two of those each.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RBC Canadian Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RBC Canadian Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 74.7, Salary: $10,300)

Rory is, it goes without saying, the most likely winner this week given his champion form and previous record at Hamilton.

But that makes him the chalk pick, and in a top-heavy field we need to be balancing out our salary cap in smarter fashion.

Tommy Fleetwood can give us an excellent run for our money anyway. He gained +2.2.9 strokes putting at the 2023 Canadian Open – suggesting he doesn’t mind slightly slower greens, and he has performed well at each of the Harry Colt designs mentioned earlier in this preview.

Just three Americans featured in the top-10 the last time the Canadian Open went to Hamilton, and it’s quite possible that the typically European skillset can be an advantage here.

Fleetwood’s ball-striking has been much better in previous months, he’s played well at a number of our correlating courses, and he has an outstanding scrambling game that may well come in very handy this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 3rd
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 12th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 13th

Top Tier Pick #2

Alex Noren (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.6, Salary: $9,900)

There’s a feeling that Hamilton could give the best advantage to players with a very unique skillset; the kind that has aided Alex Noren enormously in 2024.

In truth, his approach play has come on massively this season – according to DataGolf, he’s hitting irons and wedges better now than he’s ever done on the PGA TOUR.

But the Swede is accurate off the tee too, and another who is blessed with reliability around the greens – that could be a considerable factor this week.

Noren gained +1.61 on approach at the PGA Championship – one of the best performances of his career, and he heads to Canada with eight consecutive finishes of T24 or better. Can he take the next step in his career at a layout that should suit?

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 4th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 5th
• SG: Approach – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tom Kim (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 62.9, Salary: $8,600)

When the sportsbooks posted their opening lines, some had Tom Kim at 50/1 to win this week.

Shrewd shoppers have since backed those odds into 33/1, and for good reason – the Korean’s underlying data is impressive ahead of a trip to a layout that should suit.

His final round at Colonial was disappointing, but it’s telling that a +4 score on Sunday only dropped him down to T24 – Kim was playing superbly up to that point.

Coming on the back of T18 at the correlating RBC Heritage and T26 at the PGA Championship, Kim’s game is moving in the right direction – a win at the Wyndham Championship, plus a T2 on one leg at Colt’s Royal Liverpool at the 2023 British Open, give further reason for optimism.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 10th
• Driving Accuracy – 13th
• Birdie Average – 53rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Mackenzie Hughes (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 67.4, Salary: $8,300)

Although there’s an argument to say that he’s not the best Canadian player in the field, the switch to Hamilton should play into Mackenzie Hughes’ hands.

He was T20 here in 2019 as an eye-opener, but has kicked on since then and is currently putting as well as anybody in world golf – a useful weapon to have in your arsenal.

Hughes’ recovery game against the greens is outstanding, so top-30 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship this year come as no surprise, and neither did T3 in tough conditions at the Valspar Championship.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 11th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 12th
• SG: Putting – 18th

Low-Tier Pick

Adam Svensson (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 52.4, Salary: $7,300)

There’s a sense that low-scoring Par 70 tournaments are perfect for quality approach players – their second shots at Par 4s in particular likely to be a huge difference-maker.

It’s a department in which Adam Svensson thrives, and at Hamilton – where his lack of length off the tee won’t be penalized, we can expect the Canadian to continue his better form of late.

He’s been struck down by putting woes of late – prior to the Charles Schwab, Svensson had lost strokes to the field on the greens in 11 of his prior 13 outings. That won’t get the job done.

But he served up positive numbers with the flat stick at Colonial, and on home soil you would expect a further improvement on the greens – given his excellent approach play, that could set Svensson up with multiple birdie opportunities per round.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 27th
• Scrambling from 10-20 yards – 38th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 60th

Sleeper Pick for the RBC Canadian Open

Gary Woodland (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 48.7, Salary: $6,200)

It’s great to see Gary Woodland playing good golf again – the popular player underwent brain surgery in September.

The perennially high-class ball-striker is back in the groove, and now he’s also packing an incredible improvement on the greens too – gaining strokes on the field putting in each of his last four strokeplay starts. Anyone that has followed Woodland’s career closely will know how rare that is.

A 64 at Colonial shows how close he is to finding top form again, and flashes of major ball-striking gains in 2024 suggest that Woodland, despite turning 40 just a few days ago, can still compete at the top level.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100+ yards (rough) – 5th
• Total Driving – 72nd
• SG: Approach – 74th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RBC Canadian Open

Ben Martin (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 58.9, Salary: $6,000)

Short Par 70s are the ideal preserve of Ben Martin – not the most powerful, he still more than packs a punch on approach, where he’s been a top-25 player on TOUR this term.

There are other weaknesses to his game other than a lack of length, but Martin has been making some improvements in his short game lately and, if nothing else, will be able to minimize dependence on that with his neat and tidy ball-striking.

Look back through Martin’s career and you see a stack of good finishes at relevant layouts: TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, PGA National, and Harbour Town amongst them.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 21st
• Bogey Avoidance – 27th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 67th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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