Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship Fantasy Preview

At the 2024 Wyndham Championship, Cameron Young sat T3 with a round to play. Ahead of him were a rookie (Max Greyserman) and an amateur (Luke Clanton). Surely this was Young’s time to land a maiden PGA TOUR title?

Well, no. He had what had become something of a trademark implosion, carding a final round of 72 to tumble down the leaderboard to T22.

Young had become something of a social media meme for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory; this, after all, is a guy who won the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in 2021/22, who has six major top-ten finishes, and who has played in the Presidents’ Cup.

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But his trophy cabinet lay bare.

Fast forward 12 months to the Wyndham Championship 2025, where Young would deliver the best putting performance of his career to finally get his hands on some PGA TOUR silverware. He led, comfortably, through 54 holes, but there was still that nagging doubt… could Cam close it out?

The answer was a resounding yes. A bogey at the opening hole set tongues wagging, but then five birdies in a row – Young once more downing putts from all lengths and angles – pretty much put the tournament to bed.

He started the Wyndham in 40th place in the FedEx Cup standings, and ended it in 16th… so qualification for the TOUR Championship is now a probability, rather than a possibility. And with a shiny new trophy on his mantelpiece, you can forgive Cam Young for feeling pretty chipper about life right now.

The final 70 for the first FedEx Cup playoffs is now confirmed. Some big names will miss out, but there’s still a tremendous depth of quality and we’re fully on board for the seasonal finale, which kicks off with the St. Jude Championship this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we caught some lightning in a bottle with Kirk (T5) as well as Thompson and Griffin (T11). Now we’re excited to move into this year’s FedEx Cup Playoffs!

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The 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship Field

Unsurprisingly, 69 of the 70 players that have qualified for the FedEx Cup will tee it up at TPC Southwind this week. The anomaly? Rory McIlroy, sitting in second place in the standings, has decided to put his feet up and return later in the series.

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Otherwise, everyone is here. Scheffler, Schauffele, Thomas, Morikawa, Bradley, Aberg, Hovland… you know the drill.

The likes of Rickie Fowler and Tony Finau have gate-crashed the top-70 and will also tee it up, while anyone that has had anything approaching a positive PGA TOUR campaign will be heading to Memphis, Tennessee. 

This Week’s Course Preview

To get the FedEx Cup playoffs off to a fun but challenging start, TPC Southwind is the ideal location.

It’s neither easy nor hard, with winning scores of mid to late-teens under par the norm; remember, the fields that meet here are generally world-class too, remember.

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If you look at the most recent winners here – reigning champ Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, and Will Zalatoris, as well as runners-up, such as Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Sepp Straka, you know what you’re getting: a relentless test of accuracy and ball-striking prowess.

This Ron Pritchard design, opened in 1988, has been a regular feature on the PGA TOUR, and has long been an eye-catching test. The narrow, doglegging fairways call on precision off the tee, because missing the short grass leaves long approaches into smallish Bermuda greens – never an easy recipe.

This is a watery Par 70, so bogey or worse is a possibility on as many as ten or eleven holes, while the presence of just two Par 5s minimizes easy scoring opportunities. And a Par 70 measuring nearly 7,250 yards presents its own issues in terms of length on the Par 4 holes.

Hideki Matsuyama, the winner last year, swung from the fences, averaging 315 yards off the tee but finding just 57% of fairways. But he was superb out of the rough, raking third for SG: Approach, and ranked first for SG: Putting… that always helps, too.

The two Par 5s are the easiest holes, of course, with the sixteenth an almost gimmie-birdie – there were 166 of those last year, compared to just five bogeys. Otherwise, it’s fairly generic fare, with some Par 4s averaging below par and some over.

Of the six holes that averaged over par, the fourteenth (205-yard Par 3) and the eighteenth (453-yard Par 4) were the toughest.

Weather Forecast for Memphis, TN

Hot and sunny: anyone that lives in Memphis will be familiar with the weather here by now.

The four days of the tournament have an eerily similar feel: wall-to-wall sunshine, temperatures of around 91 degrees, and wind speeds of around 5-8mph. The chance of rain is low.

But, as ever, those could be famous last words!

MEMPHIS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship

As mentioned, Hideki Matsuyama did things the hard way in landing this title 12 months ago. Despite missing fairways with regularity and chipping poorly (ranking 68th for that stat out of 70 players), the Japanese ace was still able to win by two shots from Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland.
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Rounds of 64 and 65 propelled Matsuyama to the top of the leaderboard at the halfway stage, before a third round of 64 led him to a lead of five shots with just 18 holes to play. Scoring was more difficult on Sunday, with Matsuyama battening down the hatches to play his front nine in -1.

But then the wheels came off. He made bogeys at 12 and 14, and a double bogey at 15, to open what was previously a closed door.  However, Matsuyama would show his class down the home stretch, birdieing 17 and even the tricky eighteenth to, by hook or by crook, win the title.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

A limited field with no cut, the St. Jude Championship doesn’t cry out as an easy ride for DFS gamers. But for reasons we’ll explore in our roster selection, opportunity might just knock this week…

• GOLF TOUR $40k Dogleg: There is sense in trying to tip the scales in our favor this week, so this single-entry game – which features fewer than 1,500 teams – could be a route to go down. At $33 a turn it’s not cheap, but a possible top prize of $4k offers reward for your risk.

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green: It’s a contest we often flag up, but there’s good reason for that: it’s multi-entry at $5 a turn, so won’t break the bank, but there’s the potential upside of landing numerous prizes of $100 or more – the jackpot is a cool $50k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

It was an interesting edition of the St. Jude Championship 12 months ago, with players able to miss fairways in abundance but still post low scores.

That hasn’t always been the case at TPC Southwind, so accuracy off the tee is still favored over just relentless bombs being tossed – there is enough danger at this track to make that a dangerous strategy. This is typically a lower-than-average GIR layout too, so some ability to chip and scramble is helpful, as is a sure hand on what can be fast Bermuda greens.

It’s no surprise, given the all-round test of ball striking, that major winners and multi-time PGA TOUR champions have thrive here over the past years, and it’s a trend that seems likely to continue this week given the forecast and the likely firm-and-fast conditions. 

Only high-grade competitors can win at TPC Southwind, that’s a good starting point for drafts this week, and it really is as simple (LOL!) as trying to predict who will play well from tee-to-green and then hole their fair share of putts.

Anyone seeking correlating courses will be pleased to know there’s a couple with a high tariff of leaderboard crossover, with the PLAYERS Championship (TPC Sawgrass), Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), and the Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village) often the most reliable of those comparisons. 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Russell Henley (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 77.8, Salary: $10,000)

To write off one of the greatest golfers ever to pick up a club would be foolhardy at best.

Scottie Scheffler may well win this week, but a scoring average of 68.71 from seven trips to TPC Southwind – which includes a couple of missed cuts and only one top-ten finish –suggests there’s a smidgen of value in swerving the $13,000 chalk pick this week.

Meanwhile, use DataGolf’s excellent True Strokes Gained tool to examine the driving form of Xander Schauffele. He is currently missing more fairways than at any other point in his PGA TOUR career – and markedly so, too.

So there’s something of a vacuum at the top of the salary list this week, and while Russell Henley doesn’t necessarily scream top-tier pick, tests of accuracy on Bermuda greens really are his power play.

He has a couple of missed cuts at TPC Southwind too, but those are joined by a pair of top-ten finishes. Besides which, the data suggests Henley is playing some of the best golf of his life right now.

In his last four starts, Henley has finished no worse than T10 – a run that includes two majors and a pair of Signature Events. He could, and perhaps should, have won the Travelers Championship in that time.

A winner at the correlating Bay Hill and the short, Bermuda-lined test at Waialae, Henley shapes up as one of the more plausible champions this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 6th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
• SG: Putting – 32nd

Top Tier Pick #2

Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 69.2, Salary: $9,700)

With half-an-eye on the FedEx Cup and the remaining one-and-a-half eye on the Ryder Cup, Matt Fitzpatrick has been scrapping hard to raise his game all year. And the Brit has started to enjoy the fruits of that labor, with a strong run of form confirming him to be a dangerous contender at these FedEx Cup events.

Since the middle of May, he’s banked top-tens in two majors, and in his last four starts particularly he’s finished no lower than T8.

Crucially, he’s gained strokes on the field in all four major SG departments in each of his last three outings, while pounding fairways, so Fitzpatrick – with three finishes of T6 or better to his name already at TPC Southwind – really does look to be a power play this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 33rd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 44th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 50th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Sam Burns (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 71.7, Salary: $8,900)

With five wins on the PGA TOUR prior to his thirtieth birthday, and with finishes of T2 and T5 at TPC Southwind in his last four visits, we know that Sam Burns has what it takes to lift the trophy this week. And the idea really isn’t that far-fetched, because an examination of his formline suggests his game is in exactly the right place.

Lowly finishes on the Links can be forgiven, as can the same at the 3M Open – players heading from the UK or Ireland straight to TPC Twin Cities have often struggled.

But dig a little deeper, and you’ll see that Burns is driving the ball beautifully right now. His approach is in and out – +1.98 on a world class field at the U.S. Open is a fine sight, while his short game will surely improve back on American soil and Bermuda greens.

Defeated in the playoff at the Canadian Open in June, Burns continues to knock on the door rather loudly.

Key Stats:

• Putts Per Round – 14th 
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 40th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 69th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 68.5, Salary: $7,600)

Three trips to TPC Southwind have yielded progression for Wyndham Clark, whose T7 turn here last year was capped with four rounds under par – including an excellent final 18 of 64.

Statistically, Clark took nicely to TPC Southwind, and he returns to Memphis in good heart this year, too.

T4 and T11 on the Links Swing – the former at the British Open – was a real boost for the big hitter, whose approach play was in fine fettle.

Clark followed up with a T12 turn at the 3M Open, with a whopping +2.28 gained on the field on approach, so there’s a confidence to his game right now – as mentioned, major winners tend to fare well at TPC Southwind, too.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 10th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 17th
• Putts Per Round – 45th

Low-Tier Pick

Chris Kirk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 60.3, Salary: $7,200)

Tee-to-green class has not been in short supply for Chris Kirk of late.

He gained +6.59 on the field with his ball-striking at the Wyndham Championship, along with +4.06 around the greens, to do the heavy lifting of a T5 finish at Sedgefield.

We await an improvement on the greens with interest, which will hopefully come on his favored Bermuda surfaces this week. Kirk is playing well enough from tee-to-green to get into the frame – a previous best of T6 at TPC Southwind suggests there’s a high ceiling for him at this venue.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 40th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 42nd
• Greens in Regulation – 45th

Sleeper Pick for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Nick Taylor (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 67.2, Salary: $6,900)

It’s a surprise that Nick Taylor’s precise tee-to-green game hasn’t enjoyed more success at TPC Southwind.

He has fired rounds of 66 and 67 here, but is yet to crack the top-20 in five tries – hence his throwaway price this week.

But it’s rare for the Canadian to head to Memphis in such fine form. In years gone by, his game has typically been in a wretched place at this juncture of the campaign, but 2025 is completely different.

Save for a missed cut at the British Open last time out – the Links aren’t for everyone, Taylor’s form reads 22-17-23-13-4… a span that includes a major and two Signature Events.

Hopefully, that will allow Taylor to get full value out of his game this week at a venue that should suit. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 33rd
• SG: Putting – 54th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Nico Echavarria (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 62.6, Salary: $6,500)

Quite what bedevilled Nico Echavarria at the Wyndham Championship only he knows.

For much of the tournament, he was the second-best player on show behind Cam Young, before a disaster of a back nine on Sunday almost saw him fall out of the top-20 altogether.

Assuming that was a blip, rather than a sign of something more sinister, Echavarria looks a solid play this week at a venue where his fairways-and-greens approach should get full reward… as it did, for the most part, at Sedgefield just last week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 8th
• Driving Accuracy – 49th
• SG: Approach – 63rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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