Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – BMW Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the BMW Championship
The BMW Championship Fantasy Preview
Sometimes, it’s better just to let the numbers do the talking.
Dustin Johnson’s astonishing win at THE NORTHERN TRUST was the first time in more than a decade that a player has triumphed by double digits on the field, and to do so in the quality of the company at TPC Boston really was an extraordinary effort.
He gained more than 18 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, including 12 on approach alone, and in the end DJ finished just one shot shy of the 72-hole record. He made an incredible five eagles too.
Hopefully, this hall-of-fame performance won’t be lost amidst the race for the FedExCup trophy.
On that note, the likes of Alex Noren, Jason Kokrak and Harry Higgs crashed into the top 70 based upon their efforts at TPC Boston, and that dumped out Phil Mickelson – who will make his Champions Tour debut this week instead, Doc Redman and Denny McCarthy.
So it’s on we go to the BMW Championship. Who will make it into the top-30 of the FedExCup steadings and book their spot at the TOUR Championship?
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
No, you’re not reading that leaderboard incorrectly…DJ really did go 30 under on the event! And yes, if you had the DJ / Scheffler combo, you were able to bank the two lowest rounds of the week.
We had Scheff on our Sleeper Report and the 59 definitely helped rack up up some needed fantasy points.
The BMW Championship 2020 Field
Only the finest 70 remain based upon their season’s efforts, and as goes with the territory that means we have an outstanding field to enjoy at Olympia Fields CC.
Dustin Johnson headlines – if his head is right, he will surely take some stopping once more, while with one eye on the FedExCup picture the likes of Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger and Webb Simpson will be hoping for a massive week.
Time is running out for Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed to stamp their authority on the playoffs, while there’s still an outside chance for Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and – remarkably – Harris English to climb to the top of the standings with victory this week.
This Week’s Course Preview
For many, the name Olympia Fields Country Club won’t be familiar.
Aside from hosting the U.S. Amateur and the Women’s PGA Championship, the venue hasn’t been seen since the U.S. Open in 2003. There, Jim Furyk won with a score of -8, and only four players broke par!
How the track plays this week we’ll have to wait and see, but we’re certainly not expecting -30 to be the winning mark and indeed it could be something of a grind for the players – arguably what a FedExCup playoff should be.
Measuring around 7,340 yards for its Par 70, Olympia Fields is a tight, tree lined parklands course where strategy is the main order of the day. One of the interesting things about this Willie Park Jnr design is that there are plenty of tactically placed bunkers on the fairways and around the greens – it’s not just sand for the sake of it. When you factor in the narrow fairways and that water is in play on seven holes, you get a sense of the danger lurking.
The Bentgrass greens run typically quickly and feature sloping undulations and tight run-off areas, so precision approach play – or a reliable chipping/scrambling game – could be key this week.
Weather Forecast for Olympia, IL
We’re off to the Windy City this week, and the weather forecast suggests it’s going to be reasonably breezy for the players.
The overall picture is a good one, however, with plenty of sunshine and agreeable temperatures in the range of 77-91°F. On Friday there are some ‘scattered thunderstorms’, so we’ll have to wait and see how those pan out.
And as for the wind, the forecast is suggesting a breeze in the 10-14 mph range, so it’s considerable but not an absolute gale.
Last Year’s Results for the BMW Championship
The legendary Medinah Country Club hosted the BMW Championship in 2019, and it was Justin Thomas who came out on top from a punishing week.
JT had broken the back of the tournament on Saturday, posting a third round of 61 to power into a six-shot lead.
Patrick Cantlay just appeared in his rear view mirror on the Sunday, but Thomas stayed strong around the turn and was able to win at -25.
Cantlay was second and Hideki Matsuyama third, with Tony Finau, Jon Rahm and Brandt Snedeker completed the top-five.
Highlights | Round 4 | BMW Championship 2019
Check out the best shots of the day from round 4 of the 2019 BMW Championship, featuring Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh The city of Chicago and the Western Golf Association once again play host to the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club, the penultimate stop in the PGA TOUR’s 2019 FedExCup Playoffs.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week
Let’s face it: the TOUR Championship is a bit of a drag as far as DFS is concerned, what with their being only 30 players in the field. So the BMW Championship presents the last ‘proper’ event to get stuck into for two weeks, so let’s take a look at the best contests this week and stake accordingly.
- PGA $1.75M Penultimate Push: Another of DraftKings’ new contests arrives in the Penultimate Push, where for $25 you can try your hand at winning the $500k top prize. Finish inside the top 75 to trouser at least $500.
- PGA $125k Albatross: With no course history to fall back on other than amateur-grade action, you’re going to see a big discrepancy between those who have researched Olympia Fields and those who ain’t. Leverage your edge in this lucrative single entry contest.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship
We’re getting into the nitty-gritty of the FedExCup playoffs, and this is the time we expect the class acts to really come to the fore – just look at the rollcall of playoff event winners.
We haven’t seen Olympia Fields for quite some years now, and so we’re taking some liberties as to how we expect it to play. But with bunkers and water hazards in play and plenty of trees on the real estate, it should be a stiff challenge for the players.
There’s only two Par 5s to score on, of course, and some of the Par 4s will play at 450 yards plus – factor in a swirling wind, and finding these narrow fairways will be something of a challenge.
And then let’s think about the second part of the hole – the Bentgrass greens are quick and some are sloping too, so there is a premium on laser-like approaches. If not, then clearly short game around the greens is going to be key because there aren’t going to be many easy bail outs on this course.
Perhaps our best indicator is the identity of the 2003 U.S. Open winner here – Jim Furyk. You know the Bald Eagle, he is a plodder that has always thrived on tight Par 70 layouts thanks to the quality of his all-round game, and despite this being 2020 we fancy that the edge could be with the accurate sorts rather than the bombers this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE BMW Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE BMW Championship
Top Tier Pick:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 89.4, GPFP: 113.58 Salary: $10,100)
Our ideal player profile this week is a plodder with a handy short game who will be happy to grind out scores on the Par 4s.
And straight to mind comes Webb Simpson, whose game on and around the greens has been in fine shape of late and who still ranks first on Tour for Par 4 Scoring Average this season.
A two-time winner on the PGA TOUR this campaign already, there is no sign that Simpson is taking his foot off the gas with a pair of top-10s in his last two outings – including T6 in the Northern Trust, where he gained +1.83 strokes on the field for the week either chipping or putting.
His game is shaping up very nicely ahead of a trip to a course that should suit.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
- Greens in Regulation – 8th
- SG: Putting – 12th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Daniel Berger (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 83.3, GPFP: 98.26 Salary: $9,700)
You can tell at the moment that Daniel Berger is bringing the thunder on account that, as things stand, he hasn’t qualified for The Masters.
Those qualifying criteria are in place for a reason and the Charles Schwab Challenge winner hasn’t met them – it’s as simple as that, but we can still ride on the back of his feelings of injustice. Berger seems to want to prove somebody, anybody, wrong.
His game was in excellent shape at TPC Boston where he finished solo third, and the tight test of Olympia Fields should suit a player who is accurate off the tee and a bit of a whizz around the greens.
Berger’s formline since the return of golf reads 3-13-2-MC-3-1….
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
- SG: Putting – 12th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Kevin Kisner (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 66.1, GPFP: 74.69 Salary: $8,400)
Kevin Kisner has been striking the ball so well of late he has been appearing on leaderboards at layouts that don’t really suit his natural game, so at Olympia Fields – which should suit his grinding style – we would expect a continuation of that form.
An accurate plodder and grinder, if Kisner’s exemplary iron game continues on from the past couple of weeks then he should have a higher-than-most-of-the-field GIR count this week, and given how well he is putting that bodes very nicely.
Kisner has banked four consecutive top-25s since the WGC St Jude, including T4 last time out and T3 at the Wyndham Championship. Is he gathering steam ahead of a fourth PGA TOUR victory?
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 15th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 19th
- Driving Accuracy – 25th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Mackenzie Hughes (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 53.8, GPFP: 43.06 Salary: $7,000)
You really do get the sense that Mackenzie Hughes is shaping up to be a fantastic player for years to come – solo second in the Honda Classic, T3 in the Travelers Championship and T6 at the Memorial this season alone shows he can mix with elite company and in some difficult conditions too.
The Canadian should enjoy the stiff challenge presented by Olympia Fields, and if he can just find some fairways he will surely be in for a productive week given the quality of his short game.
A noted performer on Bentgrass greens, Hughes heads to Chicago on the back of a fine T13 effort at the Northern Trust.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 7th
- SG: Putting – 19th
- Scoring Average – 90th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brian Harman (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 67.1, GPFP: 65.13 Salary: $6,900)
Historically, Brian Harman is one of those players we’ve struggled to ‘get right’, drafting him as he appears to be rounding up into form only for him to then deliver a turkey of a performance.
But we persevere because the left-hander should love Olympia Fields and he heads there on the back of a T11 effort in the Northern Trust last time out.
Accurate off the tee and with an excellent short game, it’s iron play where Harman struggles – he gained +0.72 strokes on the field on approach last week. Reason enough to get excited?
A number of key holes at Olympia Fields suit the right-to-left shot shape, and that is very much in Harman’s armory.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 12th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 16th
- SG: Putting – 55th
Sleeper Pick for THE BMW Championship
Matt Kuchar (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 65.7, GPFP: 73.54 Salary: $7,400)
It’s pretty obvious that Kooch has been striving to find his best golf since the PGA TOUR’s resumption, but the signs have been much better of late.
He bookended his effort at the WGC St Jude with excellent rounds of 66, and while he may have missed the cut at the PGA Championship Kuchar rallied to a T18 at the Northern Trust, playing some of his best golf for quite some time over the weekend.
It’s relevant because Olympia Fields is a layout that should suit his grinding game, and yet you suspect that Kooch will remain overlooked by the vast majority of DFS gamers.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 4th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 32nd
- Driving Accuracy – 33rd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for THE BMW Championship
Adam Long (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 65.9, GPFP: 52.75 Salary: $6,300)
If Olympia Fields plays anything like it did for the US Open in 2003, you suspect that doing the simple things well will be a real difference-maker.
Perennially under-priced, Adam Long is a dream at this throwaway salary – he’s made 17/24 cuts this season, banked nine top-25s and has finished second on two occasions.
There’s no mystery to Long’s game – he typically hits fairways and greens in good order, and if the flat stick behaves then he can put a good week together.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 19th
- SG: Approach – 28th
- Driving Accuracy – 67th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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