Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2020 BMW Championship

The BMW Championship 2020 Fantasy Sleeper Report

It would be fair to say that business ran rather smoothly for Dustin Johnson at the Northern Trust.

You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time somebody won a PGA TOUR event by a double-digit margin – that, incredibly, was achieved by Brian Gay, and so you can see just how dominant DJ was at TPC Boston. And among elite company, too.

There will be studies done of this performance in the future, and there’s nothing left to write about DJ’s magnificence that the numbers don’t tell you – an eleven-shot win, featuring five eagles and a series of missed putts to record a round of 59 – deliver all you need to know.

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Indeed, if Johnson is in the right headspace he might take some stopping this week as the FedExCup playoffs roll around to the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields in Chicago.

That said, the challenge presented this week is expected to be much different to the easy-going conditions at TPC Boston – well, that’s a possibility, anyway. Olympia Fields hasn’t witnessed a PGA TOUR event since 2003, when Jim Furyk won the U.S. Open with a score of -8. The Bald Eagle was one of just four players to finish under par, which gives you a rough idea of the complexity of the challenge.

Of course, the course won’t be set up to U.S. Open specifications this week, but these are thin, tree-lined fairways, with plenty of intelligently-located bunkers flanking the short grass and around the razor-sharp Bentgrass greens, which could be tough to hold if the wind gets up in the, erm, Windy City. Water is a live enemy on seven holes too, so there is plenty of punishment around for errant stroke-making.

The top 70 in the FedExCup standings will be whittled down to the leading 30 for next week’s TOUR Championship, and so there is plenty at stake for all involved in Illinois.

So can we expect to see a longs-odd winner? If the wind picks up then it’s absolutely possible, so let’s take a look at our BMW Championship sleeper report to see who we believe I most likely to steam through the pack.

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The BMW Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Alex Noren – 70/1 – The on-screen graphics on the various PGA TOUR broadcasts that proclaim that Alex Noren has ‘0’ victories really couldn’t be further from the mark – the Swede has triumphed eleven times worldwide as part of the European Tour.

It’s relevant because it shows that he can take care of business when in contention, and especially so given how well he is playing right now.

T3 at the 3M Open was a real measure of his talents, and since then he has banked a pair of top-10s at the Barracuda Championship and last week’s Northern Trust – where his short game was in trademark fine order.

A player able to grind out scores on the Par 4s, Noren has won in the wind in Scotland and so has the tools to cope with whatever Chicago throws at the players this week.

Russell Henley – 80/1 – A proven wind player with a bank of solid form on Bentgrass, Russell Henley would have been on the shortlist for the BMW Championship even without his recent exploits.

A pair of top-10s at the Wyndham Championship and Northern Trust, hot on the heels of T7 at the Workday Charity Open, confirm that the confidence has returned to his game.

Henley is clearly comfortable in low-scoring conditions, but will he be able to grind it out at Olympia Fields if necessary? A Tour rank of 28th for Scoring Average, compared to 136th for Birdie Average, suggests as much.

Bubba Watson – 100/1 – While not all of the pieces of the puzzle have locked together for Bubba this season, there have been signs of his old game bubbling to the surface and so 100/1 seems like a fair price.

There was the closing 66 at the WGC St Jude in tough conditions, and he raced out of the blocks at TPC Boston last week with a opening round of 65.

His right-to-left shot shape should serve him very nicely at Olympia Fields, and while he will miss fairways the hope is that Bubba’s powers of scrambling and mid-range approaches will enable him to get plenty of birdie looks.

Cameron Smith – 150/1 – One golf betting strategy that is well worth following is to keep an eye on players who perform above their baseline in a specific department – the aim is that there natural ability in other areas keeps up and allows the player to deliver an excellent all-round performance.

It was notable then that Cameron Smith ranked third for SG: Approach at TPC Boston last week, because iron play is far from his strongest suit.

The Aussie is the owner of an excellent short game, honed on the fast greens of his homeland, and irons + wedge/putter game is a marriage made in heaven.

Was Smith’s approach play brilliance at the Northern Trust a crazy anomaly, or a sign of better things to come? Only time will tell, but at 150/1 for a player that has won in a stiff breeze this season we’re willing to take a second look.

Talor Gooch – 200/1 – On a similar note to Cam Smith, in Talor Gooch we have a guy who ranked fifth for a hypothetical SG: Ball Striking (average of Off-the-Tee + Approach) at the Wyndham Championship and fifth for SG: Putting at the Northern Trust last week.

He is an excellent putter by trade anyway, but tee-to-green improvements will allow him to show off those flat stick skills to the best of his ability.

Ranking 47th on Tour for Scoring Average, Gooch is among the game’s elite figures – it’s about time he landed a maiden PGA TOUR title to prove the point.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The BMW Championship here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.33%” bar_text=”5 out of 155 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “7.33%” bar_text=”11 out of 155 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”28.66%” bar_text=”43 out of 155 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=6.67%” bar_text=”2 out of 31 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 31 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”61.33%” bar_text=”92 out of 155 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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