Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – TOUR Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the TOUR Championship
The TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview
It’s fair to say that the conclusion of the BMW Championship was determined by two stunning putts.
The first came from Dustin Johnson, whose snaking 44-footer on the final hole of regulation play earned his spot in a play-off against Jon Rahm.
Embed from Getty Images
The Spaniard was +6 after 36 holes – his sportsbook odds had lengthened to 150/1 at that point, but he worked his way back into the event and played his final 36 holes in -10, which is an extraordinary effort given how tough Olympia Fields was playing.
And Rahm, who was given a penalty stroke for picking up his ball without marking it on Saturday, had a magic moment of his own in the play-off when he landed a monster 66-foot putt to win the title on the first extra hole.
It was a fascinating finish and one that sets us up perfectly for the conclusion of the FedExCup, which will come to a head at the TOUR Championship.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
EPIC FINISH…that’s all we can say!
DJ looked smooth all week and Rahm/DJ combo ended up being the 1-2 punch for the big prize.
Unfortunately, we lost Webb to a late WD and our best finish for the week was McKenzie Hughes with a T10.
The TOUR Championship 2020 Field
The final 30 has been confirmed and so too has the handicap leaderboard that will govern who lifts the trophy on Sunday. That looks as follows:
- Dustin Johnson -10
- Jon Rahm -8
- Justin Thomas -7
- Webb Simpson -6
- Collin Morikawa -5
- Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger, Harris English, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama -4
- Brendon Todd, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, Sebastian Munoz -3
- Lanto Griffin, Scottie Scheffler, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau -2
- Kevin Kisner, Abraham Ancer, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Marc Leishman -1
- Cameron Smith, Viktor Hovland, MacKenzie Hughes, Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel
On a side note, Rory McIlroy has announced that he and wife Erica are expecting their first child any day now, and the Irishman has reiterated that he will withdraw from the TOUR Championship if she goes into labor this week.
This Week’s Course Preview
While it would be churlish to suggest that the TOUR Championship is the ‘fifth major’ or anything as grandiose as that, there is still clearly plenty on the line this week and East Lake Golf Club is a fitting host.
Many consider this to be Donald Ross’ masterwork, but he wasn’t actually the original architect – he simply renovated the original Tom Bendelow design, as have George Cobb and Rees Jones through the years.
The idea was to make East Lake more challenging. Tiger won here at -23 in 2007, and a birdie shootout is perhaps not what is desired from the season’s finale. But then we’re not talking about Olympia Fields style complexity either – there’s a happy medium here where the winning score is consistently around the -12 mark.
It’s a good old grind. The layout measures 7,319 yards for its Par 70, and remember there are only two Par 5s to contribute to that yardage – a number of the Par 4s play over 450+ yards, so the TOUR Championship is a physical test as much as anything else.
The tree-lined fairways are of an average width with rough that, while not absurdly penal, is still best avoided, with water in play on six holes and plenty of bunkers gobbling up errant drives and approaches.
The greens were switched to Bermuda around a decade ago, and these run at a fair pace and are protected by tightly-shaved run-off areas. It’s going to take some precise iron play to get the job done this week.
Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA
The great news is that we can expect almost perfect conditions for golf in Atlanta this week.
It’s going to be nice and sunny, with temperatures reaching 93°F on Thursday and averaging just a shade below across the four days.
And the wind will be at a minimum too, with a breeze of 7 mph not doing too much to affect ball flight or decision-making out on the course.
Last Year’s Results for the TOUR Championship
In the late summer of 2019, Rory McIlroy was by far and away the best player on the planet, and he made his class show at the TOUR Championship to wrap up his FedExCup triumph.
He bested Xander Schauffele, who was closing in on a second TOUR Championship title, by four shots after finishing with a -4 round on Sunday – Schauffele, by contrast, couldn’t get anything going as his hopes were ended by a 70.
Chez Reavie fired the equal-best round of the week at 64, while Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka finished up in T3 and Paul Casey was solo fifth. Incidentally, Dustin Johnson brought up the rear at +10!
Rory McIlroy’s highlights | Round 4 | TOUR Championship 2019
In the final round of the 2019 TOUR Championship, Rory McIlroy turned in a 4-under 66 to get to 18-under for the tournament and grab a four-stroke win over the field for his 17th-career PGA TOUR victory and his 2nd FedExCup title.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the TOUR Championship this Week
As far as the 2019-20 season is concerned this is your lot, and this is your final chance to cash prior to the start of the new campaign, which gets underway with the Safeway Open next week.
- PGA $1.5m East Lake Ending: It could be a truly happy ending if you can take down the $500k top prize in this $25 entry contest, with the top 35 players trousering a minimum of $1k.
- PGA $500k Drive-the-Green: With only 30 players teeing up this week, clearly there’s not a huge amount of edge to be had for smart DFS players, so our natural inclination is to be a bit conservative with our contest entries. That said, you can win $100k here from a $5 entry, so what’s not to like!?
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the TOUR Championship
It’s no coincidence that East Lake hosts the TOUR Championship, quite simply because it tests every single aspect of a golf game.
Total drivers, i.e. those who can hit it long and straight off the tee, have a significant advantage at this course, but there is also a need to hit accurate approaches into what are some difficult green complexes to hold.
Almost inevitably, some greens in regulation will be missed and so that places an emphasis on short game skills, and of course you don’t beat the best players in the world without having a good week with the flat stick. Like we say, it’s going to take an excellent all-round performance to get the job done.
We’re back on Bermuda too after a brief sojourn on Bentgrass, so comfort on those surfaces is key, and don’t forget that staggered leaderboard – check how your DFS site is paying out on finishing position points this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the TOUR Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The TOUR Championship
Top Tier Pick:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 82.5, GPFP: 106.43 Salary: $15,200)
It’s a bit of a ‘no s*** Sherlock’ pick, but nobody is playing golf quite like Dustin Johnson right now.
For the second week in a row, DJ ranked first for a modified Strokes Gained: Ball Striking stat at the BMW Championship, and on both occasions he gained a considerable umber of shots on the field on the greens too.
He has never quite done the business at East Lake, with a best of T3 in 2018, but there is absolutely no reason why he can’t thrive at a golf course where his ball-striking class is given a chance to shine.
Often, Johnson’s biggest opponent is himself, but right now he appears hungry ad ready to add another slice of golfing history to his resumé. If he plays as well this week as he has been doing in recent times, who can stop him?
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 8th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
- SG: Approach – 17th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Daniel Berger (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.6, GPFP: 100.36 Salary: $9,100)
Since the return of golf, few players have matched the tee-to-green prowess of Daniel Berger, and he will be looking to remind everyone of his all-round class this week.
His season-long rank for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green is tenth, which explains his prowess with all of the clubs in his bag, and the switch to Bermuda will also favor this excellent putter.
In his last seven starts, Berger has a win to his name at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a trio of other top-three finishes – that’s a book of form that is the envy of most in this field, and stands him in very good stead indeed.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
- SG: Putting – 14th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPFP: 80.95 Salary: $7,900)
It’s hard to argue with the outstanding form of Scottie Scheffler right now.
Here’s a guy who recorded a top five finish in a major at the PGA Championship, who fired a round of 59 in his next start and who, despite a so-so opening 54 holes, closed out with an excellent 66 at the BMW Championship.
It’s all compelling stuff from a quality ball-striker who has recorded a number of top-five finishes this season on Bermuda, and while it would be something of a shock if he won this week if we fast forward into the future it’s not unlikely that he will one day be considered one of the best players in the world – so victory this week is not wholly ridiculous.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 5th
- Scoring Average – 14th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 83.5, GPFP: 88.51 Salary: $7,000)
Tyrrell Hatton started the resumption of golf like he had finished prior to the coronavirus suspension, racking up top-threes at the RBC Heritage and the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
A fallow period has followed, but often one round or even one shot can be the catalyst for change and that seems to have been the case for the Englishman of late.
His 63 in the third round of the Northern Trust was matched only by DJ on the day, and Hatton followed up with a below-the-radar T16 at the BMW Championship where his game was in good order from tee-to-green.
He leaked some shots putting at Olympia Fields, but a switch to Bermuda won’t necessarily hurt a player who won on the surface at Bay Hill earlier in the season.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 7th
- Total Driving – 33rd
- SG: Putting – 39th
Low-Tier Pick:
Kevin Kisner (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 65.2, GPFP: 78.29 Salary: $6,800)
With five consecutive top-25 finishes, Kevin Kisner certainly has the form profile we are looking for this week.
It’s helpful that two of those were top-five efforts at the Wyndham Championship and Northern Trust, and it’s most pleasing for his backers that Kisner’s recent renaissance with his irons has continued to travel with him.
He returns to his old stomping ground here, having studied at the University of Georgia, and while ordinarily we might think that a lack of length could be a real obstacle at East Lake, Kisner has played well here in the past so he can clearly make it work.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 14th
- SG: Putting – 17th
- Scoring Average – 39th
Sleeper Pick for The TOUR Championship
Viktor Hovland (Odds: 220/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 76.87 Salary: $6,600)
Viktor Hovland has been working very hard on his troublesome short game with renowned coach Pete Cowen, and his stats around and on the greens are certainly improving.
The issue is that his long game has suffered as a consequence, but the Norwegian is typically an excellent ball striker – it will be interesting to see what happens when he combines both aspects of his game in the same week.
It’s not all been doom-and-gloom, with a T33 at the PGA Championship followed by T18 at the Northern Trust, so perhaps Hovland is close to putting in a huge performance.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 10th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 20th
- Scoring Average – 22nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The TOUR Championship
Sebastian Munoz (Odds: 160/1, FPPG: 61.2, GPFP: 60.59 Salary: $5,900)
He’s perhaps a surprise name in the FedExCup’s final 30, but there’s no coincidence that Sebastian Munoz finds himself teeing up at East Lake.
A prolific birdie maker, the Colombian is a streaky player – rattling up low numbers consecutively before being punished for a momentary lapse in concentration.
But you sense there are good things to come from Munoz, and as a decent ball-striker he should enjoy plenty of value from his shots this week.
As is the case for many, consistency with putter in hand continues to elude him, but a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship and solo third at the RSM Classic suggests we can expect the most likely surface for success for Munoz is Bermuda.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 32nd
- Scrambling – 33rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 34th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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