Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Fantasy Preview
Royal Portrush hasn’t hosted the British Open since 1951, and so there wasn’t a dry eye in the house when an Irishman managed to clinch the Claret Jug.
Okay, so maybe they would have preferred a local hero such as Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell or Darren Clarke to get the job done, but Shane Lowry is a popular Southern Irishman who enjoyed plenty of support from the galleries at the outstanding Links layout.
That volume rose audibly on Saturday when Lowry compiled a course record of 63 to open up a four-shot lead on the field.
And as the wind got up on Sunday and the squally rain showers attacked the players from left, right and above, there was no doubt as to who was going to get the job done as Lowry, one of the best scramblers in the game, made fewer errors than the chasing pack to win by six from Tommy Fleetwood.
As you can probably imagine, plenty of pints of the black stuff were consumed to celebrate the Irish hero’s triumph.
Away from the watching eyes of the golf world, meanwhile, Jim Herman claimed his second PGA TOUR title at the Barbasol Championship in scorching Kentucky, seeing off the challenge of Kelly Kraft to win in a red-hot -26.
You wonder if Lowry’s hangover will have worn off in time for Thursday’s event, the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, in which he is scheduled to take part.
The traditional St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind has been bumped up to WGC status, and this is the last time the great and good of world golf will take each other on prior to the FedExCup finals, which kick off on August 8 with the Northern Trust.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
It was truly a tough test for a lot of players at Royal Portrush last week. High winds and heavy rains derailed a lot of scorecards, sending plenty of notable players home early and allowing some low-tier players like Shane to sneak up, play great golf, and win!
Unfortunately enough for us, our guy was Rory last week, the other Irishman, who missed the cut.
We can’t always have good weeks; but the Open is its own animal. Let’s shake off the loss and move on to another big WGC event this week!
The 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Field
As a WGC event, only the cream of the crop has been invited to Memphis, Tennessee, with Tiger, Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari the only members of the elite golfing fraternity to turn down their invitation.
Indeed, 46 of the top 50 players according to the OWGR are in town, with Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose the leading lights in a heavily-stacked field.
The current FedExCup points leader, Matt Kuchar, will be looking to extend his advantage, while the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas will be looking to follow up impressive showings at the British Open.
The 64-man field is rounded out by the likes of Phillip Eriksson, Kodai Ichihara and Poom Saksansin, who are rewarded for their form in Scandinavia and Asia.
This Week’s Course Preview
Big time golf heads to Tennessee with TPC Southwind hosting its first WGC event.
The Ron Pritchard design, assisted by Fuzzy Zoeller, was toughened up following the 2004 edition of the St Jude Classic, which has by and large brought the winning scores down a bit, although Dustin Johnson blitzed the field with a six-shot romp at -19 a year ago.
The key defense of TPC Southwind are the greens, which tend to be bone dry thanks to the combination of the hot sun and wind in this part of the US, and so they tend to run pretty quickly on the stimp. They are pretty small, on the whole, too, and see the Tour switching back to Bermuda for the first time in a while.
At 7,244 yards for its Par of 70, this is quite a long track where straight hitting is a good idea, with water in play on ten holes. The Zoysia green lining the fairways may also be unusual for many in the field.
But the shorter hitters aren’t discounted either, with the likes of Fabian Gomez, Ben Crane and Brian Gay winning here in the past decade.
There are some notable holes too. The eleventh, an island Par 3, has tried to mimic the set-up of the famous seventeenth at TPC Sawgrass, while the fourteenth is routinely one of the most difficult Par 3s on the PGA TOUR – a 231-yard behemoth that some in the field will need to attack with a three wood, depending on the prevailing wind.
All good golf courses end in spectacular fashion, and the eighteenth at TPC Southwind is a Par 4 that features a large lake running the length of its left-hand side – avoid that if you want to win this title!
Weather Forecast for Memphis, TN
This year’s WGC-St. Jude coincides with some typically hot and dry weather in Memphis.
The threat of rain is almost zero – a dangerous prediction from the weather forecasters, but an indication of their confidence, and with the sun shining the overarching theme is one of heat and low humidity.
Thursday and Friday’s forecast is very similar, with the mercury rising from around 62°F to a high of 87°F, later in the afternoon, with wind speeds around the 6 mph mark.
Saturday looks set to be slightly cloudier, but that doesn’t pull the temperatures down nor push the winds up – it’s another benign, glorious day for golf.
And to complete the theme, Sunday is again hot, sunny and largely wind-free – a stark contrast to Sunday at Royal Portrush.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
In its final year as a ‘standard’ PGA TOUR event, it was Dustin Johnson who outgunned the field to pick up what was then his eighteenth PGA TOUR title.
But DJ didn’t have things all his own way, and for 54 holes he was matched toe-to-toe by Andrew Putnam, who found himself in the final group with Johnson at -15 heading into the final round.
As expected, it was the former world number one’s class that ultimately told, and his final round of 66 in tough conditions was enough to secure the win as Putnam found the pressure of tackling one of the world’s best too much to bear.
But he would prove that the scars of battle were minimal, winning the alternate Barracuda Championship event later on in the season.
No Title
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic, Dustin Johnson maintained his top position and capped of his 18th PGA TOUR win with an eagle on his final hole. The FedEx St. Jude Classic returns to TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational this Week
A post-major lull descends on the DFS sites this week after the excitement of the British Open, but not to worry because there’s still plenty of quality contests to enter.
- PGA $800k Resurgence: We’ve never seen a ‘resurgence’ contest before, but it could be well worth getting involved in given that you could trouser $200k for a $10 stake! There’s prizes of $50 or more for the top 605 teams.
- PGA $400k Club Twirl: Flushed with an enlarged bankroll after the British Open? We wouldn’t class a WGC event with no cut as the best time to cash in, but there’s plenty of useful narratives to play with here and a $100k top prize from a $44 stake!
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
There isn’t too much about the nature of TPC Southwind that tells us who we should be shortlisting this week, but there are some historical pointers to follow.
This is a Par 70 layout, so already there are plenty of clues to work with. The players will have to get the bulk of their work done on the Par 4s, with only two longer holes to take advantage of, so Par 4 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance are two key metrics for stats fans to follow.
Indeed, this is not an out-and-out birdie fest, and the 2017 champion Daniel Berger made just nine bogeys in his win here, and that proves that preserving a score – as much as extending it – is key.
We will be looking for one of two profiles this week: a brilliant approach player, who will be able to find and hold these tight Bermuda greens, or alternatively somebody with a sublime chipping game who can save par when the rock-hard greens are missed.
Unusually, this is a track where course form really does seem to be of a premium. Dustin Johnson is a regular here, and so was Daniel Berger when he was invited. They have lifted this trophy in four of the last seven years between them.
Many others, among them Brooks Koepka and Billy Horschel, return to Southwind year on year and deliver the goods, so it might be worth giving repeat offenders the edge in a field of players of whom many will be making their debut in this stretch of Memphis.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 84.1, GPFP: 108.48 Salary: $10,700)
We’re nearly eight months into 2019 and Justin Thomas is still yet to win this year, which for one of the most prolific champions in modern golf comes as something of a surprise.
But a big end to the campaign would not be a shock to anybody, not least JT himself who should enjoy the run-in given that many of the layouts suit.
The 26-year-old ranks third on Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and eleventh for Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green this term, which highlights that his mastery of getting the ball onto the green in good order has not diminished.
It’s the flat stick which has left him rather bemused, but maybe a switch to the Bermuda greens synonymous with much of the Deep South will propel him back into the winner’s enclosure.
He’s not far away, that’s for sure, and even showed form on the Links swing over in Europe – T9 in the Scottish Open, T11 in the British Open – which is not where he typically thrives.
So let’s back Thomas’ iron game to propel him to glory in Memphis.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 3rd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 11th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 77.2, GPFP: 91.92 Salary: $8,900)
The Japanese ace is in danger of becoming something of a forgotten man on Tour, but one area of his game – his iron play – remains of the absolute elite level.
Matsuyama ranks second on Tour for SG: Approach, and while that alone is no guarantee of glory it’s notable that six of the top-10 for this stat have won a major and one of the anomalies – Matt Kuchar – has triumphed twice this season.
The world number 32 has won twice on the Bermuda greens of TPC Scottsdale, and it’s this switch that we’re hoping acts as the missing link for the Japanese player. His putting isn’t good enough at times, there’s no hiding it, and so maybe a change of surface can be the catalyst for a change of fortunes.
Because one thing is for sure: when an iron player of this class gets hot with the flat stick, success generally follows.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 19th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 19th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 70.1, GPFP: 61.71 Salary: $8,000)
There have been plenty of good signs for Patrick Reed of late.
He’s been gaining plenty of strokes on the field on approach in his last few outings, and of course when he does miss the green he has that electric short game to call upon.
T5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T23 at the 3M Open, Reed went to the British Open without any Links prep and still banked a top-10 finish.
It’s been a long time since he won anywhere, and that is something that the former Masters champ will surely be looking to rectify as soon as possible.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 9th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 36th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 49th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Andrew Putnam (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 69.6, GPFP: 67.51 Salary: $7,800)
It’s obviously eye-catching that Andrew Putnam has found form ahead of a trip to a layout where he performed so excellently 12 months ago.
T4 at the Scottish Open, Putnam found himself on the front page of the leaderboard for some time at the British Open before succumbing to a T32 return.
It’s been a decent summer campaign for the 30-year-old, who also banked T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T17 at the Memorial in recent times, so his form is travelling.
Maybe it’s the hotter temperatures that are getting Putnam’s juices flowing: here’s a guy who has won in Nevada, Texas and Panama after all. He might just enjoy the conditions in Memphis then.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 4th
- SG: Approach – 42nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 19th
Low-Tier Pick:
J.B. Holmes (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 62.44 Salary: $7,000)
The Kentuckian isn’t everybody’s cup of tea, that would be something of an understatement, but the fact remains that when he is in form he is still an excellent performer with five PGA TOUR wins and a Ryder Cup appearance under his belt.
The hard part is trying to predict when he will play well, because Holmes won the Genesis Open earlier this term with lead-in form of MC-26-MC-48, and found himself co-leader of the British Open after 36 holes despite missing five of his previous six cuts.
But with a T3 finish here a year ago, we can assume that Southwind is a track that suits his eye. He will hit lots of irons off the tee, and that allows his approach play – the best part of his game – to flourish.
It won’t be pretty to watch, but hopefully Holmes can score us plenty of points in Memphis.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 6th
- SG: Approach – 52nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 30th
Sleeper Pick for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Billy Horschel (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 64.1, GPFP: 73.64 Salary: $7,500)
In a stacked WGC event with a high-quality field, players like Billy Horschel tend to go under the radar.
It’s understandable, really. Billy-Ho has ever really achieved anything on the major stage, with the FedExCup win his crowning glory.
But this is a capable player who can hang with the best of them when the mood strikes – as it tends to do at TPC Southwind, where he has four top-10s to his name.
Horschel missed the cut at the British Open but that’s no harm done as he’s never shown any sign of skill on the Links. It’s back in the US heartland where he thrives best, with T9 and T17 on his recent docket at the Memorial Tournament and Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 33rd
- Greens in Regulation – 59th
- SG: Approach – 65th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Cameron Smith (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 63.4, GPFP: 62.47 Salary: $7,100)
An improvement with his irons of late has led to better things from Cameron Smith.
The Aussie began his return to form at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he finished T29 and picked up plenty of strokes on the field from tee-to-green.
And that run continued at the British Open, where he was as high as T3 on the leaderboard at one point before finishing in T20.
Set ups like this appear perfect for Smith, who boasts an excellent short game and who is comfortable playing on hard, fast greens. Let’s hope his renaissance continues at Southwind.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 35th
- SG: Putting – 57th
- SG: Approach – 70th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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