Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Memorial Tournament

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Memorial Tournament

Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview

Collin Morikawa now has more PGA TOUR titles to his name than missed cuts after completing a sensational victory in the Workday Charity Open.

After romping into the halfway lead, the young ace was in danger of lapping the field his ball-striking was that good. But his customary approach play brilliance eluded him on Saturday, and that gave the chasing pack a sniff.

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That’s not what you want to be handing Justin Thomas, who remains one of the most prolific winners in world golf. He blasted his way up the leaderboard on Saturday with five birdies in the space of seven holes – including 10 one-putts in a row – and appeared to be closing in on yet another PGA TOUR title.

But he bogeyed 16 and 18 – the latter after being just 80-yards from the flag with two shots to win it, and that allowed Morikawa to pounce. He birdied 17 and parred the last to set up a thrilling playoff.

And boy, what a playoff it was. At different times both looked to have won it and throw it away, and Thomas’ 50ft putt on the first extra hole looked to have sealed the deal. But Morikawa matched him with a 25ft clutch putt of his own, and on the third extra hole he finally made his iron game count to set up an easy two-putt for the win.

In a unique twist of fate, he could claim his second win in as many weeks at the same course, with Muirfield Village once again on duty for this week’s Memorial Tournament.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week at Muirfield we converted 4 of our 7 picks with Top 25 finishes including Viktor Hovland’s 3rd place finish. No Morikawa on the roster for us this week as we head back into Muirfield on a different playing course with a more stacked lineup. 

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2020 Memorial Tournament Field

Tiger Woods makes his long-awaited return after three months on the sidelines.

The Big Cat will have his work cut out in claiming a sixth Memorial Tournament title, however, in a stacked field that includes the likes of DeChambeau, McIlroy, Koepka and Justin Thomas.

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Other big hitters like Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama showed some form on this stretch last week, while Collin Morikawa will be looking to complete a unique Muirfield Village double.

Recent Tour winners like Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger also make the trip in what is a seriously high-quality field.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s a case of as you were as we stay at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio for a second week.

And so the conditions will remain largely the same, although it has been widely reported that organizers want to make the layout a bit tougher than it was for the Workday.

As such, expect the rough to be left to grow longer and thicker, expect the greens to run faster and expect the run-off zones and waste areas to be trimmed even shorter to repel errant approaches.

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For the uninitiated, Muirfield is arguably the signature course from Jack Nicklaus, who has very much placed the emphasis on ball striking and tee-to-green excellence. Staying in play off the tee is key – Morikawa found 71.4% of fairways in his run to the title last week, as is finding plenty of greens in regulation given the dangers of sand and short-siding that exist around the dancefloor.

Weather permitting, the Bentgrass/Poa greens could run as fast as 13 on the stimpmeter and that will test the putting stroke of even the most reliable of short stick merchants.

Weather Forecast for Dublin, OH

As was the case last week, the weather forecasters are having a tough time trying to predict what will happen in the skies over Dublin.

That catch-all term – scattered thunderstorms – is in the forecast again, and that could lead to delays and certainly some rainfall, with precipitation expected from Thursday through to Saturday.

Sunday looks set to be the nicest day according to the early predictions, with the sun set to shine on the winner’s presentation, while the wind speeds throughout the week could range from 12mph on Thursday to a more settled 8mph on Sunday.

DUBLIN WEATHER

Last Year’s Results for Memorial Tournament

While Patrick Cantlay had shown plenty of glimpses of his talent up to that point, it was his triumph at the Memorial Tournament in 2019 that arguably cemented the idea he could go on to become one of the sport’s greats.

He showed his full range of skills on the Sunday, carding a fantastic 64 to fire his way up the field as all around him fluffed their lines. It was Cantlay’s second PGA TOUR title after his victory at the Shriners in 2017.

Any one of Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama or Martin Kaymer could have won, but all suffered a case of the Sunday jitters with bogeys galore ending the hopes of that quartet.

Cantlay, by contrast, was bogey-free on his unblemished card, and he showed the kind of steel that is required to become a prolific winner in such quality company.

Patrick Cantlay highlights | Round 4 | The Memorial 2019

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Memorial Tournament this Week

It’s an interesting vibe this week, and there will be plenty of over-confident DFS gamers using last week’s form as their foundation for their picks. But with a higher quality field and (perhaps) different conditions, we can take advantage of their hubris accordingly.

• PGA $3M Millionaire: Already, the prize pot for the Milly Maker has been increased by a cool $1 million, and while the winner knows what they’re banking the increased kitty means that the consolation prizes are more agreeable too. Now, the top-125 players notch at least $500.
• PGA $40k Club Twirl: The whales are going to use last week’s form as gospel and try to bully their way through multi-entry contests like this, so use your nous and enhanced player research to take advantage of a tourney that pays a top prize of $5k from a $44 entry.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Memorial Tournament

Most of the principles that were necessary last week remain in place for any prospective Memorial Tournament champion.

You’ve got to find plenty of fairways, and while distance off the tee is not a prerequisite for success you still need to be sending it 290+ yards on a consistent basis.

Players like Morikawa, Thomas and Viktor Hovland contested for honors last week, and all are – and were – excellent with irons in hand, and once again that will be the theme this week, particularly if the rain comes and slows down the fairways.

The weather forecast really could be key. If the rain does come in big quantities, that will slow these razor-sharp greens down, and once again the Memorial will become a sort of approach play shootout – closest to the pin likely to get the job done.

If the rain doesn’t come and the greens run slick, there will be more of an emphasis on short game, and so – this will be of limited help to anyone – in that case we’re looking for the best all-round players to shine.

And, as was true at the Workday, making hay on the Par 5s is absolutely crucial – these were four of just six holes that averaged under par last week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win Memorial Tournament

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win Memorial Tournament

Top Tier Pick:

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 89.7, GPFP: 71.78 Salary: $9,800)

The plan, as last week’s readers know, as to roster Hideki Matsuyama for the ‘easier’ Workday Charity Open and hold back Patrick Cantlay for the sterner test expected this week.

Well, Cantlay almost made a mockery of those plans after an average opening 54 holes last week, but he certainly redeemed himself on Sunday with an outstanding 65 propelling him up the leaderboard to T7.

That showed just how well Muirfield Village suits his eye and his game, and we’re expecting the all-round class of Cantlay to really shine through this week.

Go back to the Tournament of Champions – which feels like a lifetime ago – and we note Cantlay’s formline reads 7-11-17-11-4. That uber consistency will surely be rewarded sooner or later.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• SG: Putting – 46th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Gary Woodland (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 79.8, GPFP: 84.56 Salary: $8,600)

If only golf was always this easy….

Gary Woodland has been experiencing a horror show off the tee in recent weeks, and so he chucked his new Ping driver in the trash and instead returned to his trusty Wilson Labs big stick.

The result? He gained +0.85 strokes off the tee at the Workday, and with his flat stick also in fine order he recorded an excellent T5 finish.

We’re expecting a classy all-round operator to prevail at Muirfield Village this week, and Woodland is another who can be filed away in that category.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 12th
• SG: Putting – 22nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1: 

Kevin Streelman (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 56.1, GPFP: 72.42 Salary: $7,600)

In drafting Kevin Streelman last week, we kinda knew what we were going to get….and we got it.

With a stack of quality finishes to his name at Muirfield Village, Streelman loves this course and he ranked third for Greens in Regulation – hitting 76% of GIR – on his way to a T7 finish.

If anything, a toughening of conditions will suit the 41-year-old and his neat-and-tidy all-round game, and while it’s not the sexiest of picks you suspect that Streelman will once again outperform his salary here.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 22nd
• Greens in Regulation – 34th
• SG: Putting – 71st

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Billy Horschel (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 67.05 Salary: $7,500)

On the back of a top-10 finish last week, Billy Horschel looks to be something of a steal here.

We all know how good a putter Billy-Ho is, but he showed plenty of class with his irons at the Workday and that is what should put him in an excellent position this week.

With a fine chipping game – that will be handy if conditions are playing fast, we’re expecting Horschel’s excellent form on the greens to stand him in very good stead at the second Muirfield stop-off.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 25th
• SG: Putting – 32nd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 66th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Troy Merritt (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 58.9, GPFP: 51.28 Salary: $6,600)

Troy Merritt is – or, at least, has been this season – a putting machine with little else to speak of in his game, but a recent tee-to-green improvement has brought him to prominence.

Excellent at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, here he finished T8, Merritt gained a huge +1.75 strokes on approach at Muirfield last week in his T22 return.

In fact, he was so good last week that only a cold putter prevented possibly a top-10 finish – if he can combine both elements this week, Merritt will surely make a mockery of his salary here.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 61st
• Birdie Average – 75th

Sleeper Pick for Memorial Tournament

Lucas Glover (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 62.7, GPFP: 61.47 Salary: $7,100)

There have been plenty of positive signs for Lucas Glover since golf’s restart – he hasn’t finished lower than T23 in any of his four starts so far. He hasn’t finished higher than T20 either, but at this salary another top-20 would be welcome.

Glover has always been a quality tee-to-green grinder, but he has shown some form with the flat stick – his nemesis – at times, and on the Bentgrass/Poa of TPC River Highlands he looked like he had found a reliable stroke.

If the rain comes the greens could run slow this week anyway, and that would certainly aid the course of this premium ball-striker.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 27th
• Birdie Average – 30th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for Memorial Tournament

Talor Gooch (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 60.9, GPFP: 48.71 Salary: $6,500)

At courses where ball-striking is key Talor Gooch often pops onto the radar, and lo-and-behold he banked a T17 finish here last week.

His iron and wedge game is a lot better than his status in the game suggests, and in 18 starts this term Gooch has only missed three cuts with six top-25s.

He’s not very good off the tee, but Muirfield doesn’t punish those without length too much and so he can afford to leave the big stick in the bag for the most part – that will let his fie approach play shine.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 69th
• SG: Putting – 70th
• SG: Approach – 81st

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.57%” bar_text=15 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.14%” bar_text=”37 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”32.57%” bar_text=”57 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”5 out of 25 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”16.00%” bar_text=”4 out of 25 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.28%” bar_text=”123 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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