Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Sony Open in Hawaii

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Sony Open in Hawaii Fantasy Preview

What a way to start the new year!

The Tournament of Champions is how the PGA TOUR now ushers in its calendar year, and while normally a low-scoring shootout in beautiful Hawaii, last week’s edition was a showcase of top-quality golf.

Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele had been battling for supremacy throughout the week, and these young studs were joined on Sunday at the top of the leaderboard by Patrick Reed, whose irrepressible round of 66 took Kapalua apart.

Captain America joined the aforementioned duo in a playoff, and after three extra time holes it was Thomas who ultimately prevailed despite making an absolute mess of the 72nd hole when he really should have won in regulation.

He’s now the winning-most player in his 20s on the PGA TOUR, and you suspect there will be many more to come in the future.

Given that Thomas has won the Sony Open in the past, he might just have cause to believe his trophy cabinet will grow in size this week when the Tour rolls around for the second week of it Hawaiian jaunt.

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Another week, ANOTHER WIN! 

That’s right folks, with JT steering the ship, we have now successfully picked 5 winners in the first 11 events in the 2019-2020 season. We’re also sitting nicely with a 75% made-cut ratio and we’re on a roll to have our best season yet, and its only JANUARY!

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In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say about Justin Thomas leading into last week’s Sentry TOC:

A Hawaii specialist who has barely been out of form in the past year, Justin Thomas is an auto lock this week.

He’s won twice in recent months at the BMW Championship and the CJ Cup, and recorded a number of top-10s in and around them. And while we’re not going to put too much stock into the Presidents Cup, JT played some outstanding golf in the USA’s victory there.

A former winner of this event and the Sony Open, Thomas clearly loves life in Hawaii and he’s more than capable of shooting stratospherically low numbers – crucial to success this week.

Let’s keep the momentum rolling into the Sony!

The Sony Open in Hawaii Field

Given the high-quality field that teed up at the Tournament of Champions last week, it’s a surprise more of those combatants haven’t made the hop, skip and jump across to Honolulu for the Sony Open.

But there will be a few who will double up on the island, including Thomas, Reed and defending champion Matt Kuchar.

The likes of Joaquin Niemann and young phenom Collin Morikawa will also take to the Waialae track, while Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama and Marc Leishman will make their first starts of 2020.

One player going under the radar will be Jordan Spieth, while another to mark your card on might just be Shugo Imahira, who has won twice and finished in the top-three on a trio of other occasions in his last nine starts on the Japanese Golf Tour.

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This Week’s Course Preview

A PGA TOUR regular for the past 55 years, Waialae is the classic Hawaiian test of technique.

A Par 70 layout featuring just two Par 5s, this Seth Raynor design features some thick tree lines and sumptuous visuals for the players to enjoy.

The key word is enjoyment, because there is minimal rough to fear and only three holes feature a water hazard of some kind.

The major defense is the wind, when it whistles through the trees that is, although the Bermuda greens are small in size and well protected by sand.

So, there are few issues off the tee and thus approaching as close as possible to the pin is key at Waialae – and, of course, a hot putter at a layout where we expect the winning score to tickle the -20 mark despite the lively weather forecast.

In 2017, Thomas joined the 59 club here in an astonishing winning effort.

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Weather Forecast for Honolulu, HI

The early forecast is shaping up for a rather interesting week!

Starting on Thursday, the predictions are for thick cloud and an extraordinary wind that could top the 25 mph mark.

We can analyze Friday-Sunday as one because the forecast is uniform across the three days: rain showers will give away to occasional sunny spells, with temperatures in the region of 78°F.

The wind will thankfully die out somewhat through the weekend, according to the early forecast, although Friday could still be a bit spicy.

Last Year’s Results for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Matt Kuchar proved the importance of that winning feeling when in contention here 12 months ago.

He had won the Mayakoba Classic just two months before, and so boasted a huge advantage over the other players in the mix at Waialae – the likes of Andrew Putnam, Corey Conners and Hudson Swafford are not prolific champions by any means.

Kooch bogeyed three of his first five holes on the Sunday, but that winner’s mentality came to the fore following that shaky start when he played the back nine in -5 to leapfrog the pack and clinch his second win in weeks to well and truly end his trophy drought.

Putnam chased hard but could not convert, while back in T3 Conners, Swafford, Marc Leishman and Chez Reavie were left to ponder what might have been.

Matt Kuchar Highlights | Round 4 | Sony Open 2019

In the final round of the 2019 Sony Open in Hawaii, Matt Kuchar carded a 4-under 66 as he separated himself from the field down the stretch, winning for the second time this season with a score of 22-under par.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Sony Open in Hawaii this Week

A new year is now well and truly underway, and the DFS sites have upped their game accordingly. There’s a fantastic slate available suitable for players of all budgets and preferences!

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: The top 20% of players will all enjoy a decent profit on their $5 stake here, but you don’t want to hear about that: you want to hear about the sweet $100k prize available to the champion!
• PGA $200k Club Twirl: If you want to try and win some big bucks this week then here’s a contest where you could land the jackpot prize of $50k – and you’re only up against 5,300 fellow players battling it out for the privilege.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sony Open in Hawaii

That brutal weather forecast will have the great, the good and the otherwise in this Sony Open field running for cover.

Only the strongest will prosper, and while the going is generally on the easy side in Honolulu it could well turn into something of a grind this week – the winner will have earned their spoils.

The rain may help to soften proceedings, depending on how much precipitation falls, but the wind will lash through the trees and make life incredibly difficult.

Lots of these small Bermuda greens will be missed, and in the end this year’s Sony Open may descend into something of a chip and putt shootout.

Players with a low ball flight have to be favored, but that’s not the only way to skin the cat in the wind and the conditions suggest a wide open affair in Hawaii.

As mentioned, course form is usually an excellent guide at Waialae and so that is worth keeping an eye on, but it’s not as if the course cannot be tamed by those on debut or who haven’t made many trips to this neck of the woods.

Building a profile of a winner this week is difficult given the unpredictable weather, but those in form who are comfortable scrambling around in the wind and rain are certainly favored.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii

Top Tier Pick: 

Patrick Reed (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 86.7, GPFP: 69.38 Salary: $10,800)

There were two scenarios that could unfold that meant we wouldn’t be drafting Justin Thomas this week: if he played so badly he was beyond reproach at Kapalua, or he went on to lift the trophy.

His victory was earned in a grueling 75-hole shootout in which he remained under the microscope throughout, and you could tell from his post-match interviews what the win had taken out of him. JT looked tired, disheveled and spoke of his ‘relief’ at getting over the line.

Will he be ready to go to the well once again this week in tough conditions?

Perhaps, but perhaps not, and you can rest assured that Patrick Reed will be seething after failing to convert his playoff position.

He is another player who you suspect he believes should have won more times in his career, and he went some way to making amends in victory at the Norther Trust.

Reed hasn’t taken his foot off the gas though, and has finished second and third in events – the Hero World Challenge and Tournament of Champions – which other players perhaps aren’t that motivated for.

He wants to win, and given how good his short game was at Kapalua we have no doubts that Reed will be there or thereabouts at Waialae this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 14th
• Scoring Average – 21st
• Scrambling – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 67.9, GPFP: 54.34 Salary: $9,900)

Five trips, one win, four top-10s and a T13.

It would be fair to say that Matt Kuchar has a pretty exemplary record at Waialae, and given he enjoyed a decent run-out at Kapalua just a week ago there’s no reason why he can’t go well once more.

Kooch may only have ended up T14 in the Tournament of Champions, but that should be seen as more of a cobweb-remover than anything else. And besides, he putted really well – that is likely to be a factor in Honolulu.

After a pretty poor run in the second half of 2019, Kuchar seems to have been waking up with decent performances last week and at the Mayakoba, and so we can have confidence that he will be up for the battle of Waialae.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 14th
• Greens in Regulation – 20th
• Scrambling – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

J.T. Poston (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 74.4, GPFP: 59.54 Salary: $8,100)

We were pretty sweet on J.T. Poston’s chances in the Tournament of Champions last week, and for a player relatively lacking in experience at the top-level he would have been delighted with a T11 finish.

His short game was in tremendous order, and it was notable how seamlessly he had taken to the Bermuda greens at Kapalua – ranking third for Strokes Gained: Putting.

If the Wyndham Championship winner can team that with an improvement from tee-to-green, a quality showing in conditions that suit should be in the offing.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 33rd
• SG: Putting – 50th
• Birdie Average – 55th

Mid-Tier Pick #3: 

Lanto Griffin (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 81.0, GPFP: 64.80 Salary: $7,500)

The Houston Open champion once again proved his mettle in the wind, finishing solo 13th at the Tournament of Champions in a performance backed by ranking sixth for SG: Tee-to-Green.

By way of mitigation, that clearly means that Griffin had an off-week with the putter in hand – and yet, this is a guy who ranks 12th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Putting.

So what we’re getting at, in wordy fashion, is that if he matches an excellent week from tee-to-green at Kapalua with his trademark excellent putting this time around, there is a chance for a huge sleeper win early in the new year.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 12th
• Scoring Average – 14th
• Greens in Regulation – 38th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Graeme McDowell (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 49.9, GPFP: 43.40 Salary: $6,800)

Despite a lowly T22 finish at the Tournament of Champions (only 34 players entered), Graeme McDowell’s issues almost entirely came from an inability to stay straight off the tee.

He will be less penalized for that at Waialae, and instead the one area of his game that was in fine order at Kapalua – his irons – can come to the fore.

The Irishman ranked third for Strokes Gained: Approach last week, and that hints at confidence whether attacking the greens from the short grass or the long stuff.

The strong winds won’t hold any fear for the Links specialist either, so McDowell could well prove to be a smart play in Hawaii this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 4th
• Scrambling – 44th
• Scoring Average – 47th

Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Brian Stuard (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 72.0, GPFP: 77.04 Salary: $7,900)

When we really dig into the numbers of the Sony Open, it becomes clear that course form is a factor because a number of players – the good, the bad and the ugly – all record decent results regardless of what state their game is in.

One such character is Brian Stuard, who has endured numerous trials and tribulations throughout his career but whose formline at Waialae – 8-4-45-MC-6-5 – is reliably excellent.

You don’t have to be a professor to work out that a player in form should do some damage at a favorite course, and Stuard with T4 at the Shriners, T10 at the RSM Classic and T17 at the Safeway Open boasts that exact profile.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 75-100 yards – 35th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 36th
• Driving Accuracy – 48th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Shugo Imahira (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 48.0, GPFP: 38.40 Salary: $7,300)

Here’s an unusual name for some followers, but you will certainly want to hear us out as far as Shugo Imahira is concerned.

Since the start of 2017, the Japanese ace has either won or finished second on thirteen different occasions on his native tour.

It’s rare that he steps foot outside of that comfort zone, but he certainly caught the eye at the 2019 edition of the Sony Open, where he opened with a round of 65 before settling for a T33 finish.

But this is a young man who knows how to win, and whose formline – 3-39-1-36-2-2-59-12-1 – albeit at a lower level, deserves further mention.

Key Stats:

• N/A
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This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.39%” bar_text=8 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”24.68%” bar_text=”19 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”33.76%” bar_text=”26 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”45.45%” bar_text=”5 out of 11 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”27.27%” bar_text=”3 out of 11 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”77.32%” bar_text=”58 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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