Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The 2022 PGA Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 PGA Championship 

PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Our horse pick last week was Justin Thomas, a guy who is in pretty solid form heading into Tulsa. Last week JT finished T5 with a few hiccups that cost him some much needed strokes at the end on Sunday. 

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Overall, we’re happy with how we’re trending leading into Southern Hills this week – and with this massive field in front of us, we’re going to to have to find some sleeper gems.

PGA Championship Field

The PGA Championship typically rolls out a 156-man field each year, and that looks set to be the case in 2022 – albeit with some top-ups.

Phil Mickelson’s ongoing spat with the PGA TOUR sees him refuse to defend the trophy he won 12 months ago, although the good news is that it seems likely that Tiger Woods will tee it up – he has already enjoyed a practice round or two at Southern Hills.

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Harris English still isn’t far enough along in his recovery from hip surgery to compete, while Sungjae Im picked up Covid during a trip home to Korea and is also forced to miss out.

But other than those couple of WDs, this is as strong a field as you would expect for a major, and that means the best in the business will hit the tee along with former PGA Championship winners like Rich Beem and John Daly, plus a host of talented amateurs, qualifiers and Asian Tour stars looking to make their name Stateside.

This Week’s Course Preview

So here’s the key question – how will Southern Hills Country Club play this week?

As well as hosting four previous editions of the PGA Championship (1970, 1982, 1994 and 2007) and three US Opens (1958, 1977 and 2001), Southern Hills was famously the site of one of mobster Whitey Bulger’s slayings….so, there’s that.

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The layout also played host to the senior PGA Championship in 2021, although for that they shortened what is a long old stretch at around 7,546 yards for its Par 70.

The past doesn’t always inform the present, of course, but it’s noteworthy that when Tiger Woods won the 2007 PGA here, he did so with a score of -8 – with just five players ending the tournament under par. 

Tiger did shoot a round of 63 here, but that’s something of an anomaly for a course that tends to play on the tough side – the 2001 U.S. Open was won by Retief Goosen with a score of -4….on that occasion, only four players finished the event under par.

So that already helps to build a profile of what to expect from Southern Hills, and the only thing that might make it somewhat easier to play is that there has been some rain around in Tulsa – any softening of these lightning-fast surfaces will be welcome.

Designed by Perry Maxwell back in 1936 and given the Gil Hanse restoration treatment in 2019, Southern Hills looks in images to be a fairly typical parklands course. But the aerial view confirms just how many bunkers there are – some remarkably deep, while there’s a few considerable water hazards to navigate as well (water genuinely looks to be in play on maybe 13 or 14 holes).

Despite its undulations, Southern Hills will play long too and its Bentgrass greens, which are smaller than average, look to be pretty complex to the naked eye with ridges, false front and edges and some dramatic run-off areas spewing errant approaches 20 yards or so from the green.

With fair landing zones, good drivers will have the edge this week – but even then, their approaches will have to be precise to navigate the variety of hazards that are present at Southern Hills CC.

Weather Forecast for Tulsa, OK

Before we launch into the weather forecast for Tulsa, the most important thing to note straight off the bat is the wind – we’re talking in excess of 20mph, give or take, on all four days of action.

That will be exacerbated by a kind of dry heat on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures up around 90˚F but humidity at around 55%….it will feel stiflingly hot, and the ball won’t travel as far as it might in more humid climes.

As for the weekend, the wind remains up but there looks likely to be some rain around – when, and how much, is as always a guessing game, but with thunderstorms mentioned there could be some delays on Saturday in particular.

TULSA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the PGA Championship

Phil Mickelson defied the aging game to give his younger rivals a golfing clip round the ear in the PGA Championship 12 months ago.

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He became the oldest major winner in history, and the first man to have celebrated their 50th birthday already to get their hands on one of golf’s most illustrious prizes.

The fact that he did it in fairly atrocious conditions at Kiawah Island showed that his love for competing burns strong even now. Just 16 players finished under par in the swirling winds, and only Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka were able to get within two shots of Lefty.

Even a difficult final round of 73, in which he traded birdies with bogeys in great quantity, was no problem for Mickelson, as a double-bogey at 13 for Oosthuizen – and three bogeys in four holes after the turn from Koepka – prevented them from getting close enough to contend.

They shared T2 behind Phil, with a four-way tie in T4 for Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Padraig Harrington and Harry Higgs.

But the week belonged to Mickelson, who delivered a tee-to-green masterclass in difficult conditions to land the sixth major title of his stellar career. 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the PGA Championship this Week

A major championship brings with it a major slate from the various DFS sites, and that means there’s plenty of options for players to consider. There’s different approaches to take, but for us we’re going to have a shot at DraftKings’ big one and then try to make our stake money back with our second entry.

• PGA $3M Fantasy Millionaire: You probably know the drill by now – each major serves up this milly-making opportunity. It’s $25 a go, but as well as the seven-figure jackpot there’s some other huge prizes to be won as well. This is the DFS equivalent of a lottery ticket, but it’s still mighty fun all the same.

• PGA $75k Albatross: Some will enter the other big bucks contests that are available this week, but there’s no harm in dialling down and trying to win your $25 back from the milly-maker. This $12 contest will pay out that sum if you finish in the top 20% or so, but then there’s other prizes including a jackpot of $7,500 too.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the PGA Championship

There’s always the risk when you make a bold statement about how difficult you expect a course to play that somebody will come along and tear it up – making you look rather foolish.

But even so, we DO expect Southern Hills to be an almighty test this week, and that’s due to the melting pot of reasons we have already identified – it’s super long, there’s stacks of different hazards, the greens are small and uniquely contoured and it looks likely to be crazy-windy in Tulsa.

That latter point could be the most pertinent of all. There simply aren’t going to be many opportunities to club down, you wouldn’t think, and so players are going to have to take out the big stick and hit fairways even with a mad breeze blowing.

That will also be felt on approach, with high lofted shots likely to be taken off-course by the zephyr, and so those with a low ball-flight that can keep it in play – think Links and British Open style specialists – could come to the fore.

As ever, hitting long-range approaches into small, complex greens is a tough task, and so there will be plenty of chipping and recovery required too – our draft has to feature those that are comfortable with that.

And then we have the Bentgrass green factor – some players, as we know, favor these surfaces more than others.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the PGA Championship  

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the PGA Championship 

Top Tier Pick #1:

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 85.6, GPFP: 68.50 Salary: $9,300)

When we’re shaping up to analyze what we consider to be ‘hard’ golf courses, Xander Schauffele often comes into the conversation.

And so we were pleased to see that he found some excellent form at the Byron Nelson, where he played his last 50 holes in a staggering -26 with zero bogeys on his card.

TPC Craig Ranch and Southern Hills couldn’t be any more different as golf courses go, but form tends to travel despite differing conditions and there aren’t many in golf as adept as Schauffele at grinding out a score – this is a guy with top-five finishes in The Masters, U.S. Open and British Open after all.

A player at his best when keeping bogeys off your card is the difference-maker, Schauffele’s long, straight and risk-free shooting really could come to the fore this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
• Driving Distance – 32nd

Top Tier Pick #2:

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 89.9, GPFP: 71.95 Salary: $9,100)

A player who seems to have fallen down golf’s pecking order is Patrick Cantlay, and that’s something of a surprise given how incredibly consistent he is.

Last season’s FedEx Cup champion has finished in the top-10 in five of his eight strokeplay starts on the PGA TOUR this term, and that is the kind of record that is the envy of most.

A proven winner, the only thing missing from his resumé now is a major title, and Southern Hills could be the ideal location for Cantlay. He’s long enough to compete here, is able to grind out scores in tough conditions and is a noted wind player, so why not?

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 6th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 20th
• Total Driving – 21st

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Shane Lowry (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 74.5, GPFP: 71.48 Salary: $8,700)

If the conditions call for a guy who can keep his ball in play, stay out of trouble and/or recover well when they go astray, Shane Lowry is your man.

The Irishman, who has finished inside the top-five of all four majors in golf, has one of the best chipping/scrambling games you will see in the sport, and his iron play has been so good this season it’s a surprise that he hasn’t picked up a major victory.

But we know he has the game and the mental fortitude for that as the 2019 British Open champion, and he certainly has the skillset to thrive while others flounder at Southern Hills.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 2nd
• Scoring Average – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 4th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 70.9, GPFP: 56.59 Salary: $7,900)

Matt Fitzpatrick is the kind of guy we like to have on side when the wind is up.

The Brit’s best wins around the world have come in breezy conditions, and he has an unusually low ball-flight that helps him to get ‘underneath’ the wind and retain control of his shots. 

In fine fettle of late, Fitzpatrick has banked top-10s in the Arnold Palmer, Wells Fargo and Valspar Championship since the start of March, finished T14 in The Masters and has a career resumé of top-25s in all four of the majors. He is a big-time player in strong form.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 22nd
• SG: Putting – 22nd
• SG: Approach – 24th

Low-Tier Pick:

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 71.0, GPFP: 85.86 Salary: $7,500)

It’s hard to resist Keegan Bradley when he’s in this kind of form.

Yes, he should have won the Wells Fargo Championship last time out, but he has to take the positives from a strong showing there and at the Texas Open prior, where he finished T8.

A former PGA Championship winner, conditions should suit long, straight hitters like Bradley whose recovery game can keep big numbers off their card. Note too how much better he putted on the Bentgrass greens of TPC Potomac as well.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 26th
• Scoring Average – 28th
• Driving Distance – 43rd

Sleeper Pick for the PGA Championship

Davis Riley (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 62.0, GPFP: 51.95 Salary: $6,800)

A player who has appeared on the radar a few times this season, we’ve been waiting for an improvement in the approach game of Davis Riley – and we might finally have got it.

His iron play was generally very good in the Byron Nelson, and that bodes well for a player that is long off the tee and a solid putter.

An unlucky playoff loser at the Valspar Championship, Riley has since played well at the Mexico Open and Byron Nelson, and he is definitely heading in the right direction.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 40th
• Scoring Average – 57th
• SG: Putting – 58th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the PGA Championship

Mito Pereira (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 67.1, GPFP: 55.46 Salary: $6,700)

It’s looking increasingly as if Mito Pereira is the real deal, and going forward there might not be that many opportunities to draft him at $6,700.

The Chilean is already the purest of ball-strikers, and while we haven’t seen how he will fare in touch major conditions, it’s interesting to note that he ranks better on the PGA TOUR for Scoring Average than Birdie Average – a sure sign that he grits his teeth and keeps bogeys off his card where possible.

Chipping better at the Byron Nelson, it is the short game of Pereira that is of most concern this week – hopefully his relentless green hitting will mitigate some of those issues.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 6th
• Greens in Regulation – 8th
• SG: Approach – 18th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.57%” bar_text=7 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.40%” bar_text=”40 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”34.18%” bar_text=67 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”7 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”14.28%” bar_text=”4 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”67.34%” bar_text=”132 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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