Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2019 Desert Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Desert Classic
2019 Desert Classic Fantasy Preview
Life begins at 40, so the old parable goes. Given Matt Kuchar’s recent achievements, it’s hard to disagree with that sentiment.
Kooch, winless in four-and-a-half years on the PGA TOUR, finally got back in the winners’ enclosure at November’s Mayakoba Golf Classic, and lo and behold – with the monkey firmly off his back – the veteran has only gone and done it again.
He opened up with a round of 63 at the Sony Open and never looked back; taking the lead on Friday and never once being overtaken by any of his competitors.
Matt Kuchar of the United States reacts on the 15th green during the…
Matt Kuchar of the United States reacts on the 15th green during the final round of the Sony Open In Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 13, 2019 in Honolulu, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
It was the ninth PGA TOUR triumph of Kuchar’s career, and he became the second player in as many years – following Patton Kizzire – to bag the Mayakoba/Waialae double in the same season.
It’s back to the US mainland this week for the first domestic event of the calendar year: the Desert Classic, which depending on your vintage you may recall being named the Bob Hope Classic, the Humana Challenge or the CareerBuilder Challenge.
This is the 60th anniversary of the famous celebrity pro-am, which has seen the likes of Bill Clinton, Frank Sinatra, Samuel L. Jackson and many others tee up alongside the pros across three courses in the Californian desert.
It’s slightly chaotic but a lot of fun, and those watching on TV or pacing the floors with their tablets/phones locked on to the live scoreboard will have plenty of interest in the action.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Perhaps our most impressive finish of the week was one of our Super-Sleeper picks off of the Tuesday Sleeper Report. Andrew Putnam finished in a solo second against 80/1 Vegas odds after falling short to Kuch by four strokes.
Our Top Tier Pick was Justin Thomas, who although hanging around the top 20, didn’t put together any low 60’s rounds to compete with the two 63’s Kuch fired on day one and two.
Matt Kuchar of the United States poses with the trophy after winning…
Matt Kuchar of the United States poses with the trophy after winning the Sony Open In Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 13, 2019 in Honolulu, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2019 Desert Classic Field
The reigning champion Jon Rahm will look to defend the crown he won in spectacular fashion 12 months ago, and his beaten playoff protagonist, Andrew Landry, is also in the mix.
The Spaniard takes his place in a field which includes a raft of former winners o this event, including Jason Dufner, Charley Hoffman, Pat Perez and Bill Haas, alongside two-time champion Phil Mickelson.
A trio of former major winners – Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel and Danny Willett – make their first starts of 2019, while Adam Hadwin returns to the scene where he became the eighth member of the PGA TOUR’s ’59 Club’ back in 2017.
Jon Rahm of Spain plays a shot from the third tee during the second…
Jon Rahm of Spain plays a shot from the third tee during the second round of the Quicken Loans National at Congressional Country Club on June 24, 2016 in Bethesda, Maryland. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
This is one of those rare PGA TOUR events where a split-course set-up is used.
All of the players will tackle the trio of courses in their opening three rounds: PGA West’s Stadium Course, PGA West’s Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club. On Sunday, those who make the cut will tackle the Stadium Course one last time.
That particular layout is the toughest of three, designed as it was by the mad scientist that is Pete Dye.
Indeed, to give you an idea of what the players are in for, this track was once voted the fourth most difficult to play in the US, and in 1986 the pros started a petition to have it taken off the tour. Their efforts succeeded, although it returned in 2016 to host this event; albeit made easier to accommodate the amateur players.
The Stadium Course plays at 7,266 yards for its Par 72, and has supposedly been inspired by Scottish Links courses; although it has also been named as a sister to TPC Sawgrass.
Featuring deep bunkers, elevated greens and plenty of water, most in the field will look to consolidate at the Stadium Course while making hay at the other tracks.
The Tournament course, designed by Jack Nicklaus, is the middle layout in terms of difficulty. Forgiving off the tee, the players can give it a bomb off the tee to minimize the chance of them coming unstuck when approaching these tight greens, which feature plenty of run-offs areas and undulations.
It has been called a ‘true ball striker’s test’ by Nicklaus himself, and again plays as a Par 72 at 7,204 yards.
Finally, we have the La Quinta Country Club, the easiest of the courses and the scene of Hadwin’s 59 two years ago.
A Par 72 at 7,060 yards, La Quinta underwent some changes prior to the 2018 renewal, with bunkers and trees added, but it didn’t seem to affect the ease with which it is taken apart.
A general view of the 18th hole during the final round of the…
A general view of the 18th hole during the final round of the CareerBuilder Challenge at the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West on January 21, 2018 in La Quinta, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA
We’re looking at a cool but largely dry week in the Californian desert.
Tuesday and Wednesday look set to be dry enough, sunny and with temperatures around the 66 degree mark.
The early forecast suggests there could be some showers around on Thursday, moving in during the afternoon mostly. Temperatures will hit 67 degrees, with wind speeds at around 7 mph.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday all look to be very similar, according to the early forecast. Sunny spells, temperatures of around 72 degrees and wind speeds of around 7 mph appear to be the order of the day.
Last Year’s Results from the Desert Classic
When Jon Rahm opened up with a round of 62 at La Quinta to open up a two-shot lead, the writing appeared to be on the wall for the rest of the field.
The Spaniard followed up with 67-70 to let others into the fold however, with Austin Cook’s sublime Saturday 64 taking him top of the 54-hole leaderboard at -19; one shot ahead of Andrew Landry and Martin Piller.
Sunday at the Stadium Course is an altogether different beast, mind you, and Rahm’s bogey-free 67 took him clear before Landry birdied the last to force a playoff at -22.
It took four extra holes to separate the pair, with Rahm birdieing the 18th in fading light to secure a second worldwide win in just three starts. Landry, Hadwin, Piller and John Huh rounded out the top five.
Highlights | Round 4 | CareerBuilder
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 CareerBuilder Challenge, Jon Rahm beat Andrew Landry on the fourth playoff with a birdie to win his second-career PGA TOUR victory. The Stadium Course at PGA West, the host course for the CareerBuilder Challenge, and part of a three-course rotation, takes place in La Quinta, California.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Desert Classic this Week
In a big field with all sorts of pro-am shenanigans going on, and in a realm where there are only a handful of standout picks, it will be a tough week for everyone as far as DFS point scoring is concerned. Happily, these are the slates where the cream generally rises to the top.
- PGA $150k Dogleg: If you have the bankroll for it then why not team into this $33 contest, where you’ll only be battling it out with circa 5,000 teams for the $25,000 top prize. Sometimes, variance can be your friend!
- PGA $35k Birdie: If you want to keep a tighter leash on your spending, given that this Desert Classic has the look of something of a free-for-all, then there are still some handsome rewards in this $3 contest; not least the $3k jackpot.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Desert Classic
This is an event where there are knowns and ‘known unknowns’.
We know that we’re looking for form in the desert ideally, but primarily in California and on the west coast, as well as success on Par 72 layouts.
From last year’s stats – and the event’s history – we know that what you do off the tee is largely irrelevant: Rahm ranked 28th for Driving Accuracy but 5th for Distance, whereas Landry found 68% of fairways from an average distance of 282 yards; clearly, he was hitting lots of irons off the peg.
GIR is usually a key measure of success, but last year’s numbers (Rahm ranked 20th, Landry 16th) hint that there’s even some leeway there.
No, as is often the case in birdie-fests, its with the flat stick where most of the magic happens. All of the top five last year ranked inside the top 20 for Putting Average, with Rahm (eighth) gaining much of his momentum on the greens.
The last time this event wasn’t won in -20 or better was 2007, and that was the sole anomaly since way back in 1989! The idea here is that the amateurs and celebrities have half a chance of posting a score, while the pros have a jolly good time too.
There is the possibility of a draw bias, of course, although there is nothing particularly worrying in the weather forecast that suggests one day is going to be much better/worse than any other.
And on that note, it was noticeable that each of the first five players home last year were able to get off to a fast start: Rahm (-10) and Landry (-9) opened up at La Quinta, with Piller (-8), Hadwin (-6) and Huh (-4) at the Tournament Course.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Desert Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Desert Classic
*This early in the season some players do not qualify enough stats to register a FPGP and GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 96.2, GPFP: 83.67 Salary: $11,600)
You suspect that there will be courses and events where Jon Rahm cleans up year on year.
There are certain layouts that don’t suit his eye nor his combustible temperament, but easier tracks with an emphasis on good vibes should be where the Spaniard thrives.
The laidback nature of the pro-am format suits then, and perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that he played so well here 12 months ago.
Because he plays so much of his golf away from the PGA TOUR it’s easy to forget as much, but Rahm really is one of the most prolific winners on the planet: he’s only just turned 24, and yet he already has five titles worldwide to his name.
Two of those have come in California – a handy hint to his comfortability in the state, and one came just before Christmas at the Hero World Challenge.
At his very best, few can match the scoring prowess of a young man who ranked third on the PGA TOUR last season for Birdie Average.
Key Stats (2018):
- Birdie Average – 3rd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 86.9, GPFP: 69.54 Salary: $9,200)
There won’t be many weeks where drafting Chez Reavie at $9,200 comes highly recommended.
And yet this week, there feels like there’s enough converging trends in his game with which to take the plunge.
He was absolutely outstanding at Waialae last week – that helps – ranking first SG: Tee-to-Green and second for SG: Approach in among his T3 finish.
When in form, Reavie comes under consideration at layouts where long hitting is not a necessity, and with that box checked we can have some confidence in the diminutive ball-striker’s chances.
He has played each of his last competitive rounds in the 60s, with five of those at 67 or better. Reavie is scoring very nicely indeed at the moment, and in an event where he is comfortable – 36-12-17 is the formline – it bodes very well for another good run from him.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Total Birdies – 6th
- Driving Accuracy – 21st
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Hudson Swafford (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 80.4, GPFP: 78.01 Salary: $8,300)
There was an eye-catching return to form for Hudson Swafford at the Sony Open last time out; well times, given that he is a former winner of this event.
There wasn’t a huge amount of hints to suggest that the 31-year-old was in good touch prior to the festive break, so he has clearly worked hard at his game over the holidays.
And it’s paid off: he ranked fourth for SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth for Putts per Round at Waialae on his way to a T3 finish.
Swafford took the spoils in some style at the event then-known as the CareerBuilder Challenge, and clearly the combination of shooting low numbers at the Tournament Course and La Quinta, while tightening his belt at the Stadium layout, holds no fear.
The 32-year-old is something of a Hawaii specialist, having lifted this trophy 12 months ago, and it doesn’t take optimism of any great kind to expect another good run this week.
Key Stats:
- Total Birdies – 17th
- Scoring Average – 53rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 63rd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Harold Varner III (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 78.2, GPFP: 62.54 Salary: $7,400)
As we enter a new year, in our minds we have a list of players we can see winning in 2019. Harold Varner III is on that list.
Famous last words of course should he stink the place out, but we believe that HVIII has got game and will finally win something this season.
He’s been playing well ever since he got into the mix at the Greenbrier Classic, with a solo sixth following in his next start at the John Deere Classic.
In six starts including the Safeway Open, he’s banked four top-20s, a T23 at the RSM Classic and served up a best of T6 at the Mayakoba Classic.
Why are we sweet on Harry so much this week? There’s nothing too fancy about his swing, but he does have a decent short game and can shoot low numbers – Tour ranks of 40th and 59th for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and Birdie or Better Percentage are healthy enough.
Key Stats:
- Total Putting – 30th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 40th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 50th
Low-Tier Pick:
Whee Kim (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 62.5, GPFP: 57.50 Salary: $6,600)
It’s time for us to don our tin helmets….
Why on earth would you draft a player who has missed his last two cuts, and whose formline in this event reads MC-17-MC-MC? Well, hear us out.
Whee Kim missed the cut at Waialae by two shots, but crucially he putted well; it’s just too bad that his approach play was so lame.
But we’re going to take a punt on a young man with a top-20 to his name in this event, and who also holds the joint low round record at the Tournament course of 63.
Comfortability should breed confidence, and the pro-am format should help the Korean to relax; if he rolls some of those trademark long putts in then his form could turn around rather quickly.
Besides, he’s not *completely* out of touch. Prior to missed cuts at the Sony Open and RSM Classic he finished T10 at Mayakoba, and a T41 return from Shriners was franked by rounds of 66-65-77-67….without that one nightmare, how would he have fared?
Whee will be low owned this week, naturally, but he might just be a draft pick to savor.
Key Stats:
- Total Birdies – 13th
- SG: Putting – 34th
- Scrambling – 48th
Sleeper Pick for the Desert Classic
Danny Willett (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 53.8, GPFP: 43.00 Salary: $7,100)
The former Masters champion is the archetypal sleeper pick on US soil, despite ending his 2018 in the best possible fashion: winning the European Tour’s seasonal sign-off, the DP World Tour Championship.
That came a fortnight after registering T7 in the Turkish Airlines Open, and so there’s proof that the Englishman’s game is returning to something like its best.
Willett could have gone off chasing cash in Abu Dhabi this week, but the fact he has committed to this rather more low-key pro-am speaks volumes.
The format should suit, and really here we have a major winner who also won on his last start; at $7,800, what’s not to like!?
Key Stats (European Tour):
- Stroke Average – 72.17
- Greens in Regulation – 64%
- Driving Accuracy – 54%
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Desert Classic
Ryan Armour (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 80.1, GPFP: 64.06 Salary: $7,100)
We’re happy enough to go in again with Ryan Armour, who we drafted for last week’s Sony Open and who treated us well enough.
After a slow start not aided by being on the wrong side of the draw bias, he played his last three rounds in a combined -12 to scrap his way up the leaderboard to T22.
The 42-year-old doesn’t have a great record in this event, but we’re not too fussed because he might just be playing the best golf of his life right now.
A brilliant putter on his day, Armour’s tee-to-green game has been in excellent shape for a while too, and that helps to explain his three consecutive top-25 finishes with eight of those rounds at 67 or better.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 7th
- Total Birdies – 10th
- SG: Putting – 30th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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