Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – THE NORTHERN TRUST

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for THE NORTHERN TRUST

THE NORTHERN TRUST Fantasy Preview

Come on, own up, who had tipped Jim Herman to win the Wyndham Championship?

Not many, based upon his sportsbook odds of 500/1 (750/1 was available in places), and why would you have put your money to Herman’s name – in his prior 10 events, a best finish of T33 was compounded by seven missed cuts.

Even more bizarre, Herman has just two top-25s to his name since 2018 – both of which are wins. Go figure.

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As well as a much-needed payday, Herman has also gate crashed the FedExCup party, rising from 192 in the standings to 54 in time for the first of the playoff events, this week’s The Northern Trust.

The top-125 players in the rankings are heading to Norton, Massachusetts to tee up in The Northern Trust, and only the top-70 will remain and progress to the BMW Championship next week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

As mentioned earlier, not many of us saw Jim Herman coming out of the weeds to take last week’s trophy, and that includes us. Our best finishers were Kisner (T3) and Doc Redman(T3) with our horse pick Paul Casey finishing in the Top 30s.   

This week we’re going to favor a ‘two-smoking gun’ roster with two big picks on the top of the leaderboard.

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THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Field

We’re into the nitty-gritty of the season now, and so it’s no surprise that The Northern Trust will see a heavyweight field assemble.

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There’s a host of former winners at this week’s host course, TPC Boston, in the field, including Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler.

And there’s a myriad of former Northern Trust champions too, such as Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Jason Day and Adam Scott.

Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im are inside the top-five of the FedExCup standings – they’ll be eyeing further progress this week, as will the likes of Jon Rahm and Daniel Berger, who could also enter the equation with a strong end to the campaign.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Northern Trust has a rotational host course system, and in 2020 the honor will fall to TPC Boston.

The traditional host of the Dell Technologies, TPC Boston didn’t feature on the Tour in 2019 but makes its return this week.

Designed by Arnold Palmer and Ed Seay, the layout was given a refurb by Gil Hanse in 2007 and allegedly toughened – although winning scores of -15 to -22 suggest that ambition wasn’t exactly achieved.

This is a Par 71 stretch at 7,283 yards, with a trio of Par 5s that are all reachable in two and a couple of drivable Par 4s too – notably the 353 yard fourth.

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The parklands course features mostly straight or just off-straight holes, and while the majority are tree-lined the fairways are generously proportioned, which helps to minimize the risk of approaches to the green being blocked out.

The Bentgrass greens are of an average size and protected by a number of bunkers, and that is the course’s chief defense along with the five water hazards that patrol much of the real estate. Weather permitting, the greens will run at around 12 on the stimp.

Weather Forecast for Norton, MA

The early weather forecast for Norton is something of a mixed bag, with sunshine and rain both featuring.

The tournament should open up in nice conditions, with sunny spells and cloud the order of the day from Thursday to Saturday with temperatures around the 82-87°F mark.

Things may take a turn on Sunday, however, with some rain in the forecast – although the probability of precipitation is set at 50%, so who knows.

The wind could slowly get more considerable across the four days, opening up at 6 mph on Thursday and rising to 12 mph by Sunday.

NORTON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results for THE NORTHERN TRUST

The 2019 edition of The Northern Trust was hosted by Liberty National Golf Club in New Jersey, and it was Patrick Reed who prevailed by a single shot from Abraham Ancer.

Captain America came up with two birdies in his closing five holes to claim victory, and that was enough to hold-off the advancing Ancer, who himself had birdied 16 and 17 to set up a grandstand finish.

After opening with a round of 64 on Thursday, Jon Rahm would have been frustrated not to kick on – he finished in T3 alongside Harold Varner III, while Adam Scott’s Sunday 65 propelled him up the leaderboard into solo fifth.

Highlights | Round 4 | THE NORTHERN TRUST 2019

Check out the best shots of the day from round 4 of THE NORTHERN TRUST 2019, featuring Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed, among others. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh THE NORTHERN TRUST kicks off the FedExCup playoffs at Liberty National Golf Club in New Jersey.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for THE NORTHERN TRUST this Week

The first of the FedExCup playoff events brings with it a varied slate of large and small-scale contests. There’s something for everyone this week and some fantastic payouts to be won!

• PGA $1.55m Beantown Battle: The winner in this fantastically-named contest trousers a cool $500k, and the top 4450 players will double their $25 at the very least.
• PGA $450k Drive the Green: This feels like a good week for smart DFS gamers, with a quality field helping to keep ownership low and plenty of value down the salary listing too. So let’s give this contest a try; for $5 entry, we could land the $100k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for THE NORTHERN TRUST

You wonder how much prestige the players attach to the FedExCup when compared to, say, the majors, but even so there are plenty of riches on offer and then there’s the sating of the ego – individual sportsmen and women don’t enjoy under-performing.

And so Justin Thomas will have something of a target on his back this week, and you can bet your bottom dollar that all in the field will be giving it their all.

Don’t forget matters at the other end of the standings too. Only the top-70 will head on to the BMW Championships, so the likes of Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar will be nervously eyeing those chasing them down around that bubble mark. The mission of Sepp Straka (71), Harold Varner III (73) and Bud Cauley (74) is to put in a big week and force their way into the next event.

As far as TPC Boston is concerned, there actually isn’t a huge amount to say! The wide open fairways suggest that bombers can thrive, and that is also backed up by the notion that the trio of Par 5s and a couple of the Par 4s hand a huge advantage to those capable of going 320-yards and more off the tee.

And yet you look at the roll-call at this course – Kuchar, Vijay Singh and Hunter Mahan have all won here, with the likes of Steve Stricker, Luke Donald and Chez Reavie have enjoyed success here. That suggests that shorter hitters cannot be discounted either.

But with more players approaching out of the short stuff, there will be a premium placed on accurate approaches, so that combination of long, straight driving and short iron/wedge game could be key – as will confidence on the Bentgrass greens, which tend to run pretty pure here.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE NORTHERN TRUST

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE NORTHERN TRUST

Top Tier Pick:

Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 84.8, GPGP: 67.86 Salary: $11,100)

 There are certain golf courses that are going to suit Bryson DeChambeau 2.0 very nicely.

Ironically, TPC Boston suited the original incarnation of the Scientist well – he won the Dell Technologies here in 2018 – and his added length will surely enhance his hopes of a double-up even further.

As mentioned, this course features a number of perfectly straight holes, and so Bryson won’t have to shape his bombs around tree lines and doglegs. What’s more, the generous fairways will give him more landing room off the tee, and with three Par 5s reachable in two and a couple of Par 4s to take aim at, DeChambeau has a clear advantage on many in the field.

So far he has been able to temper his brutality when called upon, and his T4 finish at the PGA Championship was franked by a performance that balanced sheer power with sensible course management.

It’s all set up rather nicely for Bryson this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 1st
• Scoring Average – 1st
• SG: Putting – 5th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Tony Finau (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 75.3, GPGP: 86.54 Salary: $8,800)

For those that continue to wager on him, Tony Finau remains a frustrating nuisance of a headache for his inability to close wins out.

But for DFS gamers, he is the gift that keeps on giving with consistently good performances – three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, and a penchant for shooting under par (13^th on Tour for Birdie Average).

The extra space off the tee will suit Finau, who can occasionally spray his drives here, there and everywhere, and shooting from the short stuff will allow his excellent iron game to shine.

The stats suggest that he is working very hard on his putting and seeing some improvements, so at a course where he finished T4 in 2018 we have to expect another strong showing from ‘Big Tone’ this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
• Birdie Average – 13th
• Driving Distance – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1: 

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 60.5, GPGP: 61.67 Salary: $7,900)

A former winner at TPC Boston, we can get some juicy odds on Rickie Fowler this week given his perceived lack of form.

But even when he’s off there’s still a touch of class to Rickie’s game. He missed the cut at the PGA but not after shooting 69 in tough conditions on the Friday, and his game at the WGC St Jude – 64-67-69-73 – seemed to be in decent order for the most part.

You suspect that a breakthrough as far as his performance on the leaderboard goes is just around the corner, and the unusual combination of a Bentgrass course on the east coast might just be the place where it all clicks together for Fowler.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-To-Green – 44th
• Scoring Average – 49th
• SG: Putting – 69th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Doc Redman (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 63.8, GPGP: 51.02 Salary: $7,400)

A return to his home state of North Carolina proved to be just the ticket for Doc Redman, who banked one of the best pay days of his career with T3 at the Wyndham Championship.

Assuming he doesn’t spend the next few days living the good life, Redman can go well once again at a course that really does suit his premium ball-striking capabilities.

Ranking 6^th on Tour for Total Driving and 13^th for SG: Approach, Redman is actually performing to elite levels and all he needs now is an improvement on the greens – incidentally, he gained +0.49 strokes on the field with his putter at the Wyndham. Could the penny finally be dropping?

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 12th
• SG: Approach – 14th
• Scoring Average – 41st

Low-Tier Pick: 

Denny McCarthy (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 65.7, GPGP: 52.58 Salary: $6,700)

There was a collective rubbing of the eyes as we learned that Denny McCarthy led the field in SG: Approach at the Wyndham last week.

This is a guy who is comfortably one of the best putters on the planet, and so if he can add some tee-to-green chops to his game suddenly he becomes a very dangerous proposition indeed.

McCarthy is an absolute birdie machine when he gets on a roll, and if he can combine iron-and-putter magnificence he will surely far outperform the standards expected of a 300/1 throwaway.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 1st
• Birdie Average – 15th
• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 39th

Sleeper Pick for THE NORTHERN TRUST

Cameron Champ (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 69.1, GPGP: 55.25 Salary: $7,600)

There is a sense that ‘total driving’ could be a key asset this week at TPC Boston, and so it’s only right to have one of the very best in that regard in our thoughts.

Champ will enjoy the extra room off the tee, and while his approach game isn’t all that impressive this is a guy who just has a habit of getting things done – he ranks 17^th on Tour for Birdie Average, after all.

Another Californian who has since moved to pastures new, Champ has won on Bentgrass before at the Safeway Open and he will feel comfortable on the greens this week – maybe that will be the catalyst for a big performance from the mighty hitter.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
• Birdie Average – 17th
• Greens in Regulation – 58th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for THE NORTHERN TRUST

Harold Varner III (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 62.6, GPGP: 50.06 Salary: $7,400)

A big performance from Harold Varner III this week would see him into the field for the BMW Championship.

It’s hard to work out why Varner III – who ranks 11^th on Tour for SG: Tee-to-Green – hasn’t broken his PGA TOUR duck as yet, but actually the equation is pretty simple; he simply doesn’t putt consistently well enough.

He actually gained shots on the greens last week, however, so maybe there is enough of an improvement incoming to sweep Varner III back to the upper echelons of the leaderboard following his T7 at the Wyndham.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 20th
• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Scoring Average – 33rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.57%” bar_text=18 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.95%” bar_text=”44 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”70 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”6 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”13.33%” bar_text=”4 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.42%” bar_text=”150 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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