Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – THE PLAYERS Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship
THE PLAYERS Championship Fantasy Preview
A collision of almost apocalyptic conditions helped to make Bay Hill play like the most sadistic of major courses over the weekend just gone.
It was always going to be a test of patience as to who came out on top of the Arnold Palmer Invitational then, and by that token the identity was something of a surprise.
Tyrrell Hatton, who we had tipped in our Sleeper Report, is a fantastic player with a real penchant for life on Bermuda greens, but he is not the kind of level-headed type we might expect to thrive in such conditions – he has his own ‘full tilt’ highlight reel on YouTube, after all.
And yet, while all around him – including Rory McIlroy, multi-time PGA TOUR winner Marc Leishman and Honda Classic champion Sungjae Im – made errors, Hatton largely kept his nerve, barring a double bogey on eleven, to clinch his first PGA TOUR title.
The Florida Swing so far has been the gift that has kept on giving: fantastic golf courses, toughened by the conditions, has brought the best out of some of the finest ball-strikers walking the earth.
This week’s outing at the legendary TPC Sawgrass, home of the so-called ‘fifth major’ THE PLAYERS Championship, will surely only add to the magic!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our top dog last week was Bryson, who ended up finishing T4 with a solid week. But our real superstar came from our Tuesday Sleeper Report, event winner, Tyrell Hatton. In case you missed it, here is what our Sleeper Report had to say about Hatton heading into the AP Inv:
The Englishman has been in excellent form ever since winning the Turkish Airlines Open in November, and having some time off to nurse an injured wrist it was good to see the good vibes continuing.
That was the case at the WGC-Mexico, where he was in awesome form from tee-to-green in his T6 finish and hopefully that can continue this week.
He has always spoken of being more comfortable on Bermuda, and a T6 at Bay Hill a couple of years ago was perhaps evidence of that.
Now let’s ride the Hatton win’s momentum into TPC Sawgrass!
THE PLAYERS Championship Field
It would be easier to list who isn’t featuring at THE PLAYERS.
Tiger Woods won’t make the trick as he is nursing back problems, and the hope is that those won’t keep him from defending the Green Jacket at Augusta.
Otherwise, the best in the business will be present and correct at Sawgrass. Rory McIlroy will look to become the first ever champion to retain their title here, but a field of 143 will be doing their best to prevent that from happening.
It is believed that Jason Day, former PLAYERS champion and something of a Pete Dye specialist, will start despite withdrawing from Bay Hill, and he will be joined by an array of previous winners at Sawgrass which includes Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler and the mercurial Si-Woo Kim.
A whole host of top names – from Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas to Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson – will be hoping to add their name to that rollcall.
This Week’s Course Preview
To be labelled the ‘fifth major’ suggests you need to put on the best regular tour event in the world, and at least THE PLAYERS has a venue worthy of such a billing.
TPC Sawgrass is arguably Pete Dye’s masterwork, the culmination of a decades-long pursuit of the ultimate in golf architecture.
Like Bay Hill and PGA National of late, the proof is in the pudding that to protect from being dismantled by modern players and equipment you simply have to add yardage – that’s simply not true.
That explains why TPC Sawgrass has remained at its 7,200 yard mark (Par 72) for decades, with Dye and his team only occasionally tweaking the layout.
The devil is in the detail: thanks to some clever pointing and doglegging, no two holes at Sawgrass play in the same direction – that can leave players rather disorientated.
Then, there’s the British Links style bunkers, dozes of them to contend with, as well as water being in play on ten holes and waste areas gobbling up any errant approaches.
And the stretch from hole 3-8, while not boasting a catchy name like the Bear Trap, is one of the toughest around.
The island green seventeenth gets most of the headlines, but TPC Sawgrass is far from being a gimmick golf course – only ‘proper’ players can thrive here.
As is customary in this part of the world, the greens are Bermuda and the wind will blow – just how hard, and how badly it will affect the players, remains to be seen!
Weather Forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
It got rather chilly in Orlando this week, but happily the players have more enjoyable conditions to look forward to in Ponte Vedra – according to the early forecast, anyway.
The mercury should reach 78°F and rarely stray from there, although it will of course be colder for the early tee times. The sun should poke through the clouds at regular intervals to keep everyone’s spirits up.
And that million dollar question….how hard will the wind blow? The forecast suggests around 12 mph for the four days, which if correct would be blessed relief for all involved in the weekend at Bay Hill.
Last Year’s Results for THE PLAYERS Championship
THE PLAYERS Championship should bring the best out of the players this week, and that was certainly the case last year with a high quality leaderboard keeping the patrons entertained throughout.
It was Tommy Fleetwood who asserted an early lead with a 65-67 opening salvo, and he was matched on that front by Rory McIlroy – the senior citizen, Jim Furyk, carded a 64 on the Friday.
Saturday saw some significant movement. While Fleetwood and McIlroy consolidated, it was Jon Rahm who sprung from the pack with a stunning 64.
But the Spaniard could not convert as Sawgrass bared its teeth, and with Fleetwood also struggling to get anything going it was left to McIlroy to pip the evergreen Furyk to the post by a single stroke.
Rory McIlroy’s closing par to secure win at THE PLAYERS 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for THE PLAYERS Championship this Week
That big tournament feel has been matched by the DFS sites this week, and DraftKings in particular has gone big – for context, their ‘Fifth Major Classic’ has been upgraded to THE PLAYERS Millionaire, and the prize pot increased from $1 million to $2.25 million!
- PGA $2.25M THE PLAYERS Millionaire: It’s hard to resist the lure of this contest, where the winner will win a milly and a ticket to the Big Game in Tampa, where another million is the top prize. The top 100 players scoop a minimum of $500.
- PGA $250k Birdie: The low-roller slate is just as jam-packed, and regular $3 entrants will enjoy seeing the Birdie contest upgraded to $250k, with the top 25% of players notching a payout.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for THE PLAYERS Championship
THE PLAYERS is one of those curious events where there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach.
For example, historically distance off the tee has been an advantage – and yet this is an event won by the likes of Webb Simpson, Davis Love III and KJ Choi, none of whom are known for their tee box butchery.
Simpson was an anomaly – the only one of the last five champions to not rank inside the top-20 for Driving Distance. Remember, last week the players complained of the fairways running out because they were so firm, and so we have to question whether length is an advantage or not.
But this being a Pete Dye track, you know that the greens – firm, fast, Bermuda – are best approached from as close as possible with short irons and wedges, where possible.
And that’s why Sawgrass is such a brilliant test: ideally, you need to be long and straight off the tee and laser-like on approach – a ball-striking behemoth, in short.
One interesting factor is that even the best players will miss greens this week, and so a quality short game becomes a premium, especially if the wind picks up.
It’s not easy creating an exact profile of a champion here, but the identity of the last five – Rory, Webb, Si-Woo (a curve ball admittedly), Jason Day and Rickie – suggests the cream should rise to the top.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship
Top Tier Pick:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 103.1, GPFP: 120.60 Salary: $11,700)
On a golf course where the all-round attributes of the players are put to the ultimate test, why look elsewhere for our top-tier pick than the current best on the planet?
At this moment in time, nobody can really hold a candle to Rory McIlroy, whose ridiculous run of form shows six consecutive top-5 finishes worldwide.
Curiously, there’s only been one win in that spell, but that surely works in the Irishman’s favor: it’s not as if he is lacking in motivation or hunger.
The defending champion, it goes without saying, has the perfect game for TPC Sawgrass with his long, straight hitting and mastery at approaching small greens with precision, and as ever it’s perhaps only the flatstick that can curtail his chances.
His current form suggests he’s putting well, and that was confirmed by a reasonable effort on the Bermuda greens of Bay Hill last time out. If he can improve a fraction at Sawgrass, Rory will take some stopping.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 1st
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 1st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Adam Scott (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 84.1, GPFP: 67.25 Salary: $9,600)
A bizarrely bad opening round at the Arnold Palmer ultimately meant that Adam Scott missed the cut last time out, but there were plenty of positives in a second round of 72 – only bettered by 19 players in tough conditions – so we’re not giving up on the Aussie just yet.
Scott simply loves life at Sawgrass, with eight consecutive cuts made and six top-20 finishes in that run. And it’s not hard to see why, as his short game mastery works a treat around these small, firm greens.
Indeed, it’s often felt that Floridian conditions suit Australians down to a tee, and with that win in the Genesis Invitational still fresh in the mind Scott has the added impetus of the confidence in knowing he can still hang with the world’s best.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 6th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 8th
- Driving Distance – 19th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Byeong Hun An (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 56.03 Salary: $7,800)
Yes, we’re gonna draft that guy that can’t putt.
There are plenty of upsides, given that Byeong Hun An has ranked inside the top-10 from SG: Tee-to-Green in both the Florida Swing events thus far, and while his putting was again on the horror show – rather than highlights – reel at Bay Hill, he did actually gain strokes on the field on the greens at PGA National.
If An brings the latter, rather than the former, then he can go very well at TPC Sawgrass.
A sublime chipper, the Korean also has the length to prosper at this stretch, and if he can play the Par 5s here better than he normally does elsewhere, An can string together a winning score.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 20th
- Driving Distance – 25th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 56.90 Salary: $7,300)
Anyone that has watched the European Tour consistently over the last couple of years will now that Hatton, Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick are the best trio of graduates by some considerable distance to emerge in recent years.
The former pair have already made their mark on the PGA TOUR, and now Matt Fitzpatrick is starting to show what he is made of too.
The Englishman finished T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, on the back of a Sunday 69 – the lowest of anyone on the day – and a stripe show that saw him ranked top-10 for SG: Tee-to-Green.
Spurred on by the successes of Hatton last week, Fitzpatrick – on a Sawgrass track he has been getting to grips with in his most recent starts there – can also back up his fine effort at Bay Hill.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 45th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 68th
- Scoring Average – 84th
Low-Tier Pick:
Danny Lee (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 62.5, GPFP: 68.13 Salary: $6,700)
In the 2018 edition of THE PLAYERS, in which Webb Simpson went berserk and took Sawgrass to the cleaners, there were plenty of forgotten men….and one of them was Danny Lee.
He put in a decent shift chasing the eventual champion, and eventually settled for a share of seventh place.
In a timely twist, he caught the eye at Bay Hill last week too, where his T5 finish could have been improved yet further but for a couple of wayward shots over the weekend.
But Lee’s all-round game is in good shape, and in 25% of his outings this season he has finished inside the top-10 – not bad for a bargain bucket entry this week.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 35th
- Scoring Average – 40th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 69th
Sleeper Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship
Daniel Berger (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 76.7, GPFP: 85.93 Salary: $7,200)
A resurgence of form has brought Daniel Berger firing into his favorite part of the PGA TOUR.
In fact, it’s something of a surprise that the Florida native born and bred has waited until THE PLAYERS for his first outing on home soil on the east coast swing, but then this is a course that suit his game to a tee – even if past results don’t show as such.
Supremely gifted in all aspects of the game, Berger heads to Sawgrass on the back of three consecutive top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR, and he is once again showing the class that saw him so highly rated as a youngster.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 5th
- Scoring Average – 12th
- SG: Putting – 26th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Odds: 170/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 56.45 Salary: $6,800)
The Florida Swing is arguably the best time for European Tour graduates and South African to thrive, with their Bermuda greens, tricky tree-lined layouts and stiff breeze off the ocean.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has shown lately that his golf game is as good as the points his name scores in Scrabble, and after 54 holes at Bay Hill last week he was very much in the thick of things before falling away to T18.
This form won’t come as a surprise to followers on the other side of the pond, where the South African lost in a play-off in the Dubai Desert Classic before returning to win the Dimension Data Pro-Am just a couple of weeks later.
This is a big step up in class, of course, but so far Bezuidenhout has shown a penchant for quality among the big boys.
Key Stats:
- N/A
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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