Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2019 Sony Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the the Sony Open

2019 Sony Open Fantasy Preview

It’s not often that professional golf brings to mind fables and nursery rhymes from childhood.

But that’s exactly what the conclusion of last week’s Tournament of Champions did in a cautionary tale for the golfing year ahead.

You may recall the old ‘Hare and the Tortoise’ fable, in which the duo have a running race. The hare, naturally quicker and more athletic, bounds into an early lead, and has such an advantage over his adversary that he decides to take a nap under a tree just before the finishing line.

The tortoise, slow and steady, keeps on trucking and eventually passes the dozing hare to take the line in first place.

Well, at the T.O.C, it was the opposite that occurred.

Gary Woodland had led pretty much from the get-go, posting rounds of 67-67-68-68; the archetypal golfing tortoise.

In other circumstances he might have expected to lift the trophy, but bounding into view came the hare of Hawaii: Xander Schauffele.

Xander Schauffele of the United States poses with caddie Austin…

Xander Schauffele of the United States poses with caddie Austin Kaiser and the trophy after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club on January 6, 2019… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

He compiled an exquisite final round of 62 (-11) to fly up the leaderboard on Sunday and eventually take the spoils by a single stroke.

Metaphors aside, it was yet more evidence that the 2017 Rookie of the Year is the real deal; this was his fourth win in the past 18 months alone, and he’s up to number six in the OWGR.

As for Woodland, well, he will have to reflect on what might have been.

He won’t have long, mind you, with the PGA TOUR staying in Hawaii for another week for the first full-field event of 2019: the Sony Open, from the Waialae club in Honolulu.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

Our top pick last week was DJ who ended up in a T4 finish along side Webb Simpson, our mid-tier pick. But, there was no stopping Xander on Sunday and fantasy owners were rewarded handsomely with his pick. 

In total we finished the week with four of our main picks finishing in the Top 8. Not a bad way to kick off 2019!

Xander Schauffele of the United States poses with the trophy after…

Xander Schauffele of the United States poses with the trophy after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club on January 6, 2019 in Lahaina, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The 2019 Sony Open Field

A new year brings with it a new start, and Jordan Spieth – who would have watched his peers tee up at the Tournament of Champions a little green with jealousy – starts his campaign this week.

He will be joined by a selection of players who took to the fray in Maui, including his old mucker Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland and Marc Leishman.

There are plenty of others who will be looking to stamp their authority on 2019 at the earliest possible opportunity. By his high standards Hideki Matsuyama had a miserable 2018, while the likes of Kyle Stanley and Emiliano Grillo will be hoping that this is the year that they break through into the big time.

Buoyed by wins in Australia over the winter, Abraham Ancer and Cameron Smith will also be looking to bring their best form to Hawaii.

Bryson DeChambeau of the United States acknowledges the crowd as he…

Bryson DeChambeau of the United States acknowledges the crowd as he walks on the 18th hole during the third round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

The Waialae Club is one of the most established on the PGA TOUR, having hosted this event since way back in 1965.

This is the classic Par 70 track featuring just two Par 5s, and so no real advantage is handed to the bombers here.

Instead, this is one of the short and testing circuits with thick trees lining the fairways, and the small Bermuda greens mean that picking the right lines off the tee is essential to ensure there’s a chance of making some big GIR numbers.

Designed by Seth Raynor, water only features on three holes and so when the wind is down – as it looks likely to be this week according to the early forecast – then we can expect wining scores in excess of -20, as has been the case in four of the last six editions.

These small greens run pretty quick at around 11 on the stimp, so the magic here is in making lots of greens in regulation and sinking plenty of putts; when is it not!

James Hahn of the United States plays a shot on the 16th hole during…

James Hahn of the United States plays a shot on the 16th hole during the final round of the Sony Open In Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 14, 2018 in Honolulu, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Honolulu,HI 

As mentioned, after the howling gales in Maui last week those from the Tournament of Champions that travel on to Honolulu might think they’re in a different country altogether!

The early forecast suggests that the breeze this week won’t exceed 8 mph at any point, and so that typically Hawaiian defense won’t be of any concern.

There is some rain in the forecast for Wednesday too, so depending on how much falls this Waialae could be at the mercy of some really low scoring.

From Thursday onward we’re expecting plenty of sunny spells and average temperatures of around 80 degrees.

 

Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open

Patton Kizzire backed up his maiden PGA TOUR win at the OHL Classic by taking the spoils in this event barely eight weeks later.

A second round of 63 forced him into the reckoning, and he maintained the pressure on the leaders Tom Hoge and Brian Harman with a 64 on Saturday.

While they fell away on Sunday, Kizzire would have hoped his 68 would have been enough to get the job done.

But not even the fake missile threat could deter James Hahn, who bludgeoned the best round of the tournament at -8 to force his way into the playoff.

Following six attempts to separate them, Kizzire finally got the job done when Hahn bogeyed the Par seventeenth to hand the Alabaman his second PGA TOUR title.

Highlights | Round 4 | Sony Open

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Sony Open in Hawaii, Patton Kizzire and James Hahn went into extra holes where Patton Kizzire came out victorious on the sixth playoff hole to win his second PGA TOUR event in his last four starts.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sony Open this Week

The DFS world kicks up a gear with the first full-field event of 2019, and there are plenty of options for gamers seeking to boost their bankroll early doors ahead of the packed schedule to come.

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: The January blues are a real thing proven by psychologists to bring down the mood of even the most chipper of individuals. So what better way to cheer up than by landing the $50k top prize here; not bad for just $5 entry.
• PGA $10k Hybrid: Slow and steady wins the race in this early juncture of the new year, so small stakes might just be the way forward here. For just $3, we can utilize our superior knowledge in a three-team max event and still trouser a winner’s check of $800.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sony Open

Our usual angle of attack for Hawaiian events, that strong ocean breeze, does not appear to be a factor this week.

So what else do we know? Well, what you do off the tee doesn’t seem to matter at Waialae. Patton Kizzire ranked 54th for Driving Distance here last year, while former winners include Fabian Gomez, David Toms and K.J. Choi; hardly brutes off the tee.

Meanwhile, Justin Thomas fired -27 here in 2017 despite ranking just 60th for Driving Accuracy.

So don’t get too hung up on tee work, and instead focus on the second half of holes.

There seems to be two obvious lines of attack: pick shorter, straighter hitters who will find plenty of fairways and thus give themselves a chance of posting high GIR numbers – Kizzire made 73% of greens last year.

Or, you can pick those who are longer and slightly more erratic off the tee, but who can scramble very nicely to give themselves birdie opps from out of the rough.

And, given the potentially soft and wind-less conditions, Par 4 Birdie or Better could be the key stat, backed of course by putting on Bermuda.

As for correlating events, any coastal affair is worth a look; particularly the Honda Classic. Thomas, Russell Henley and Mark Wilson have won both, with a slew of players offering high finishes in both in the past two decades.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open

*This early in the season some players do not qualify enough stats to register a FPGP and GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1:

Justin Thomas (Odds: 13/2, FPPG: 98.5, GPFP: 78.80 Salary: $11,400)

JT delivered an iron play masterclass in Maui, gaining a whopping +2.70 strokes on the field on approach and ranking first for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

Usually the players are just blowing the cobwebs off at this time of year, so it was rather enlightening that he did strike the ball so well.

It’s all good stuff then ahead of a trip to a course he set a course record at in 2017, and where he also has a top-10 and a top-20 to his name.

A low scoring sensation – he ranked fourth for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders in 2018, Thomas also serves up the added bonus of winning another of our correlated events, the Honda Classic, last year. He’s a no brainer of a pick here.

Key Stats (2018):

• SG: Total – 3rd
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 4th
• SG: Approach – 4th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Gary Woodland (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 109.3, GPFP: 124.55 Salary: $10,800)

If you shoot -5 on Sunday after holding the 54-hole lead of an event, you have every right to feel hard done by when somebody else comes along and hoists the trophy.

Remember, before we write off Woodland as a ‘choker’, given that this was the sixth time he has failed to convert a third-round lead, let’s not forget it took a course record from Schauffele to deny him.

We should also pin some significance on the fact that Woodland was four shots clear of Thomas in third and seven clear of the field all told.

So we’re not giving up on him just yet, particularly as Waialae is a layout he seems to enjoy.

Three top-10 finishes here in the past five years, including a T3 in 2015, confirms the suitability of this layout to his game, and why wouldn’t we get excited about a guy who ranked second for SG: Tee to Green and seventh for SG: Putting in harsher conditions than these at the Tournament of Champions?

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 1st
• Total Driving – 6th
• SG: Approach – 7th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Patton Kizzire (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 78.6, GPFP: 70.74 Salary: $7,900)

Golf is one of those sports where mental strength and confidence are key; you can be the sweetest swinger on the planet, but if you can’t sink clutch putts and the like you won’t go very far.

And so even the toughest of campaigners will cling on to good vibes whenever and wherever they can find them.

Kizzire probably didn’t have all that much on his mind when teeing up at the fun QBE Shootout, and yet he walked away a champion and with confidence restored.

He showed as much at the Tournament of Champions last week, where he bookended his effort with rounds of 69 and 68 to prove that all is well.

The 32-year-old is something of a Hawaii specialist, having lifted this trophy 12 months ago, and it doesn’t take optimism of any great kind to expect another good run this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 37th
• SG: Approach – 37th
• Birdie Average – 55th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Ryan Armour (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 79.4, GPFP: 63.52 Salary: $7,200)

Some players seem to defy the aging process, and we can certainly file Ryan Armour under that heading.

At the ripe old age of 42, the 2017/18 campaign was a good one for the Ohio native. He won his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and also posted a solo second at the Quicken Loans National.

His consistency took him all the way through to the BMW Championship in the FedExCup race, and in his last five starts he has made the cut and posted a trio of top-30 finishes.

Another lacking in distance, you won’t find many more accurate off the tee than Armour, and that should help him get some good lies into these small Bermuda greens at Waialae.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 7th
• Total Birdies – 14th
• Greens in Regulation – 60th

Low-Tier Pick:

Troy Merritt (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 81.9, GPFP: 81.92 Salary: $6,700)

We were quite surprised to see Troy Merritt available at such a giveaway price this week.

The Barbasol Championship is hardly the final frontier of golf, but Merritt won it and he won it in some style too; his second PGA TOUR title.

He struggled immediately after but a T4 return from the Safeway Open signaled a return to form, continued by T23 at the RSM Classic.

Merritt even packed his clubs for a tilt at the Australian PGA Championship; quite simply because he’s rediscovered his love of the game. A T34 finish doesn’t look all that good on paper, but look at his rounds: 71-71-70-75. It’s all ifs and maybes, of course, but if he’d gone round in 71 on Sunday that would have secured a top-10 finish.

There has to be an advantage to playing the Tournament of Champions just prior to the Sony Open, and while Merritt didn’t pull up any trees in his T16 he did putt well to dust off the cobwebs.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 10th
• SG: Around the Green – 37th
• SG: Putting – 42nd

Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Brian Gay (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 79.9, GPFP: 63.92 Salary: $7,300)

We’re going to mark Brian Gay down as the archetypal sleeper pick this week.

That’s because there’s absolutely nothing in his recent formline to suggest a strong showing is likely, and yet when we dig deeper to look at the bare facts we find a player in decent enough form.

Three starts ago, Gay finished T51 at the Shriners; so far, so unspectacular. But look at his round-by-round breakdown: 74-65-69-68. Remove that opening effort, and you have an excellent return from the veteran.

There was a similar theme at the Mayakoba Classic, where he finished T41: 68-63-76-68.

He finally compiled four good rounds at the RSM Classic – 69-65-67-69 – to bank a top-25 finish, and we can surely agree that Gay is playing some excellent stuff right now (or at least he was prior to the festive break!).

A lover of these fiddly coastal tests on Bermuda, Gay has played well at Waialae in the past and finished T13 here as recently as 2017.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 9th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 36th
• SG: Putting – 50th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Ryan Blaum (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 74.2, GPFP: 59.36 Salary: $7,100)

His T4 finish at the RSM Classic last time out was just the fifth PGA TOUR top-ten of the 35-year-old’s career, and you wonder if there is a possibility that Ryan Blaum is blooming into a much better player these days.

He ranked 21st on Tour for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders in 2018, and it’s stats like that which suggest he should be a more familiar figure at the top end of leaderboards.

At 5ft 8in, it won’t come as any surprise to note that he lacks length off the tee, but Blaum is more than capable of taking care of business when that doesn’t matter. He finished T10 here a year ago, for example, and posted other top-20s at the St Jude Classic, Byron Nelson and the Travelers and Valspar Championships.

Blaum isn’t the man for all seasons, but when conditions suit he is a capable performer.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around the Green – 36th
• Scoring Average – 67th
• Putts Per Round – 78th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”4.76%” bar_text=”3 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”30.16%” bar_text=”19 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”47.62%” bar_text=”30 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”11.11%” bar_text=”1 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”111.11%” bar_text=”1 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”84.13%” bar_text=”53 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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