Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valspar Championship

2019 Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

One of the great things about champions is that they have an innate ability to prove their doubters wrong.

Many had written off Rory McIlroy as something of a ‘choker’ in recent weeks after a couple of near misses when closing in on the finishing line.

It’s a strange accusation to level at a 30-time champion worldwide, who also happens to have won four majors, two WGCs and a FedExCup. It’s also barely a year since his last triumph; not exactly a drought of Kuchar-esque proportions.

And so it will have been extremely satisfying for McIlroy to claim a 31st title at THE PLAYERS Championship last week, especially given the chaotic day that unfolded on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland smiles as he walks off the ninth…

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland smiles as he walks off the ninth hole green during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 17, 2019 in Ponte Vedra… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

You’d need an abacus to count how many players actually led or had a share of it on a chaotic final day when the temperatures dropped and the murky conditions that have informed the Florida Swing thus far arrived.

Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker and even Eddie Pepperell will have at one point or another fancied their chances of lifting the trophy; particularly when McIlroy double-bogeyed the fourth.

But the Irishman showed his credentials by playing the back nine in -3 on a day when scores were hard to come by to secure victory.

We now find ourselves three tournaments shy of the Masters, and the Florida Swing comes to an end this week with the first of those: the Valspar Championship from the Innisbrook club in Palm Harbour.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

Our best finish last week from THE PLAYERS came with our Matsuyama pick (T8). JT’s performance disappointed us a bit and the sleepers couldn’t hold up, despite a majority making the cut.   

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland shows how the sole of his shoes…

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland shows how the sole of his shoes matches the winner’s trophy after winning The PLAYERS Championship on The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 17, 2019 in Ponte… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Cheers to Rory emerging on top of a crowded leaderboard last week. Now on to the Valspar!

The 2019 Valspar Championship Field

Fine tuning ahead of the year’s first major has begun in earnest, and Dustin Johnson – who doesn’t have the best of records at Innisbrook, relatively speaking – leads a decent quality field.

Patrick Reed will be preparing his path to successfully retaining the Green Jacket, and his Augusta prep will step up a notch here along with Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson.

Jason Day will look to build on his impressive showing at Sawgrass, as will the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Brandt Snedeker and the evergreen Jim Furyk, a former winner and runner-up here.

Defending champion Paul Casey, fresh from a bit of a horror show at Sawgrass, will look to retain here, but will he be able to brush off his embarrassment at 17 last week?

Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm of Spain wait to tee off during round one…

Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm of Spain wait to tee off during round one of the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on March 1, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

Visually at least, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook has a similar look to Augusta, what with its tree-lined fairways, doglegging fairways and smaller-than-average greens.

But we’re out on the East Coast again, so its Bermuda surfaces once more, and the greens are protected by a collection of bunkers; some of which were moved closer to the dancefloor as part of a renovation project in 2015.

It’s an unusual Par 71 this, with five Par 3s and four Par 5s, and at 7,340 yards it doesn’t discount the shorter hitters, with the likes of Jim Furyk, Luke Donald and Kevin Streelman all prospering here.

This is not a bomber’s paradise, with strategic course management key to ensuring your approach shot isn’t blocked by the foliage; and the rough, while not disastrous, can be tangly and ‘grabby’.

As with all the best golf courses it seems, the closing stretch of holes has its own name: this time, the charming ‘Snakepit’.

Sixteen is a Par 4 and usually the hardest hole on the layout, with very little room for error off the tee with a watery grave lurking right and left.

Seventeen is a lengthy enough Par 3 at 215 yards, and the small green is protected by both bunker and tree.

And what a way to end with eighteen, where making your par of four is a good effort. It’s played uphill and so the 445-yard hole does play quite long. There’s trees left and sand right, so threading a drive away safely will be key, as will a good approach into the viciously sloping green.

Tiger Woods plays a shot on the 18th hole during the third round of…

Tiger Woods plays a shot on the 18th hole during the third round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort on March 10, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL

Although there could be some rain around on Tuesday to slow down conditions somewhat, the tournament itself should be played out in fairly settled circumstances.

Thursday should present sunny spells and cloud, with temperatures of around 72 degrees and wind speeds around 12 mph.

Friday and Saturday will be much the same, with dry, sunny spells, and noticeable is a fair lack of wind: the breeze down to 8 mph in time for the weekend. This is an event where the wind has been a factor in the past.

Sunday should be perfect conditions for a championship to be won in too, with nothing in the forecast to suggest our eventual winner should experience a sleepless night on Saturday.

Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship

For a player accused of occasionally lacking the intestinal fortitude to win a golf event, the manner in which Paul Casey got over the line here 12 months ago was a great help.

With a round to play he was five shots adrift in T11, and so had a ‘free hit’ completely devoid of pressure.

And the Englishman’s closing 65 was good enough to get the job done, as all around him fluffed their lines.

Corey Conners, the 54-hole leader, showed his lack of experience under pressure, posting a demoralizing 77 to tumble down the leaderboard.

But more established ‘winners’, such as Justin Rose and Brandt Snedeker, also struggled, with both shooting over par, while Tiger Woods – seeking his first win in an eternity – could only post 70.

An so Casey, as much to his surprise as anybody else’s, hoisted the trophy after a tumultuous Sunday in Palm Harbour.

Paul Casey’s highlights | Round 4 | Valspar

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final of the 2018 Valspar Championship, Paul Casey played with a heavy heart and powered up the leaderboard to seal the win in a close race to the finish. The Valspar Championship is held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week

We’re closing in on The Masters, and already you will spot the odd contest relating to Augusta National on your chosen DFS site. That whets the appetite, and so the bankroll build starts here!

• PGA $4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire Super Satellite: For just $3, you can gain access to this contest which serves up a ticket to the mega-millions contest for The Masters. And the odds aren’t all that stacked against you: the top 100 of 792 grab the tickets.
• PGA $500k Drive the Green: With prizes of all shapes and sizes available here including a top payout of $100k, we can build our bankroll without necessarily crashing into the big money places in this contest, including double-your-money for a top 17.5% finish.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valspar Championship

Casey’s triumph was fairly a-typical for Innisbrook: he missed lots of fairways, had a fairly low GIR count but scrambled and putted very well indeed.

Generally speaking, this is perhaps not the best way to go about your business here, although you can play from the rough as long as you leave the correct angle into these small greens.

There is no advantage whatsoever to the bombers; unique in this day and age!

Paul Casey ranked inside the top eight for both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach – as Adam Hadwin had 12 months prior to him, so there is a premium here on a high GIR count, which typically comes from finding fairways or the first cut of rough.

In some respects, this is the archetypal ‘second shot’ layout.

We can’t get away from the Augusta National link. Casey has five Masters top-10s, while Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia – who rounded out the top-four at Innisbrook – are all Green Jacket wearers.

To continue the theme, Jordan Spieth and Charl Schwartzel have won both events, and a pair of unlikely Valspar champs – John Senden and Sean O’Hair – have also notched top-10s at Augusta.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

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Cover Photo via Instagram