Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Valspar Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valspar Championship
2019 Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview
One of the great things about champions is that they have an innate ability to prove their doubters wrong.
Many had written off Rory McIlroy as something of a ‘choker’ in recent weeks after a couple of near misses when closing in on the finishing line.
It’s a strange accusation to level at a 30-time champion worldwide, who also happens to have won four majors, two WGCs and a FedExCup. It’s also barely a year since his last triumph; not exactly a drought of Kuchar-esque proportions.
And so it will have been extremely satisfying for McIlroy to claim a 31st title at THE PLAYERS Championship last week, especially given the chaotic day that unfolded on Sunday.
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland smiles as he walks off the ninth…
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland smiles as he walks off the ninth hole green during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 17, 2019 in Ponte Vedra… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
You’d need an abacus to count how many players actually led or had a share of it on a chaotic final day when the temperatures dropped and the murky conditions that have informed the Florida Swing thus far arrived.
Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker and even Eddie Pepperell will have at one point or another fancied their chances of lifting the trophy; particularly when McIlroy double-bogeyed the fourth.
But the Irishman showed his credentials by playing the back nine in -3 on a day when scores were hard to come by to secure victory.
We now find ourselves three tournaments shy of the Masters, and the Florida Swing comes to an end this week with the first of those: the Valspar Championship from the Innisbrook club in Palm Harbour.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our best finish last week from THE PLAYERS came with our Matsuyama pick (T8). JT’s performance disappointed us a bit and the sleepers couldn’t hold up, despite a majority making the cut.
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland shows how the sole of his shoes…
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland shows how the sole of his shoes matches the winner’s trophy after winning The PLAYERS Championship on The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 17, 2019 in Ponte… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Cheers to Rory emerging on top of a crowded leaderboard last week. Now on to the Valspar!
The 2019 Valspar Championship Field
Fine tuning ahead of the year’s first major has begun in earnest, and Dustin Johnson – who doesn’t have the best of records at Innisbrook, relatively speaking – leads a decent quality field.
Patrick Reed will be preparing his path to successfully retaining the Green Jacket, and his Augusta prep will step up a notch here along with Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson.
Jason Day will look to build on his impressive showing at Sawgrass, as will the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Brandt Snedeker and the evergreen Jim Furyk, a former winner and runner-up here.
Defending champion Paul Casey, fresh from a bit of a horror show at Sawgrass, will look to retain here, but will he be able to brush off his embarrassment at 17 last week?
Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm of Spain wait to tee off during round one…
Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm of Spain wait to tee off during round one of the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on March 1, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
Visually at least, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook has a similar look to Augusta, what with its tree-lined fairways, doglegging fairways and smaller-than-average greens.
But we’re out on the East Coast again, so its Bermuda surfaces once more, and the greens are protected by a collection of bunkers; some of which were moved closer to the dancefloor as part of a renovation project in 2015.
It’s an unusual Par 71 this, with five Par 3s and four Par 5s, and at 7,340 yards it doesn’t discount the shorter hitters, with the likes of Jim Furyk, Luke Donald and Kevin Streelman all prospering here.
This is not a bomber’s paradise, with strategic course management key to ensuring your approach shot isn’t blocked by the foliage; and the rough, while not disastrous, can be tangly and ‘grabby’.
As with all the best golf courses it seems, the closing stretch of holes has its own name: this time, the charming ‘Snakepit’.
Sixteen is a Par 4 and usually the hardest hole on the layout, with very little room for error off the tee with a watery grave lurking right and left.
Seventeen is a lengthy enough Par 3 at 215 yards, and the small green is protected by both bunker and tree.
And what a way to end with eighteen, where making your par of four is a good effort. It’s played uphill and so the 445-yard hole does play quite long. There’s trees left and sand right, so threading a drive away safely will be key, as will a good approach into the viciously sloping green.
Tiger Woods plays a shot on the 18th hole during the third round of…
Tiger Woods plays a shot on the 18th hole during the third round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort on March 10, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL
Although there could be some rain around on Tuesday to slow down conditions somewhat, the tournament itself should be played out in fairly settled circumstances.
Thursday should present sunny spells and cloud, with temperatures of around 72 degrees and wind speeds around 12 mph.
Friday and Saturday will be much the same, with dry, sunny spells, and noticeable is a fair lack of wind: the breeze down to 8 mph in time for the weekend. This is an event where the wind has been a factor in the past.
Sunday should be perfect conditions for a championship to be won in too, with nothing in the forecast to suggest our eventual winner should experience a sleepless night on Saturday.
Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship
For a player accused of occasionally lacking the intestinal fortitude to win a golf event, the manner in which Paul Casey got over the line here 12 months ago was a great help.
With a round to play he was five shots adrift in T11, and so had a ‘free hit’ completely devoid of pressure.
And the Englishman’s closing 65 was good enough to get the job done, as all around him fluffed their lines.
Corey Conners, the 54-hole leader, showed his lack of experience under pressure, posting a demoralizing 77 to tumble down the leaderboard.
But more established ‘winners’, such as Justin Rose and Brandt Snedeker, also struggled, with both shooting over par, while Tiger Woods – seeking his first win in an eternity – could only post 70.
An so Casey, as much to his surprise as anybody else’s, hoisted the trophy after a tumultuous Sunday in Palm Harbour.
Paul Casey’s highlights | Round 4 | Valspar
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final of the 2018 Valspar Championship, Paul Casey played with a heavy heart and powered up the leaderboard to seal the win in a close race to the finish. The Valspar Championship is held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week
We’re closing in on The Masters, and already you will spot the odd contest relating to Augusta National on your chosen DFS site. That whets the appetite, and so the bankroll build starts here!
- PGA $4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire Super Satellite: For just $3, you can gain access to this contest which serves up a ticket to the mega-millions contest for The Masters. And the odds aren’t all that stacked against you: the top 100 of 792 grab the tickets.
- PGA $500k Drive the Green: With prizes of all shapes and sizes available here including a top payout of $100k, we can build our bankroll without necessarily crashing into the big money places in this contest, including double-your-money for a top 17.5% finish.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valspar Championship
Casey’s triumph was fairly a-typical for Innisbrook: he missed lots of fairways, had a fairly low GIR count but scrambled and putted very well indeed.
Generally speaking, this is perhaps not the best way to go about your business here, although you can play from the rough as long as you leave the correct angle into these small greens.
There is no advantage whatsoever to the bombers; unique in this day and age!
Paul Casey ranked inside the top eight for both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach – as Adam Hadwin had 12 months prior to him, so there is a premium here on a high GIR count, which typically comes from finding fairways or the first cut of rough.
In some respects, this is the archetypal ‘second shot’ layout.
We can’t get away from the Augusta National link. Casey has five Masters top-10s, while Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia – who rounded out the top-four at Innisbrook – are all Green Jacket wearers.
To continue the theme, Jordan Spieth and Charl Schwartzel have won both events, and a pair of unlikely Valspar champs – John Senden and Sean O’Hair – have also notched top-10s at Augusta.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 95.6, GPFP: 122.32 Salary: $11,500)
It’s arguably not ridiculous to suggest that Dustin Johnson would have won THE PLAYERS Championship had he putted better on Sunday.
He certainly looked the most likely to win for much of the day, but missed opportunities on the greens ultimately proved costly.
That said, DJ once again dominated the field in terms of strokes gained from tee to green, and he is very much the best player on the planet right now.
He actually doesn’t have a particularly strong record at Innisbrook in that he barely turns up here – a missed cut in 2010 his last visit – but as we know he is able to shape shots both ways and is comfortable on Bermuda, so there’s no reason why he won’t enjoy the test ahead.
With question marks about a few towards the head of the salary listings, Johnson looks a no-brainer play this week.
Key Stats:
- Bogey Avoidance – 3rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th
- Scoring Average – 5th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Keegan Bradley (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 76.4, GPFP: 93.92 Salary: $9,400)
When you become a meme on social media, you know you’re in trouble.
Going ‘full Keegan’ is an expression that is used to describe a disastrous round of a golfer who tumbles down the leaderboard on account, largely, of a terrible putting performance.
That eventuality explains why drafting Bradley is accompanied by risk, but even is biggest critics have to admit he is one of the best tee-to-green merchants around.
And so all we need is a slight improvement from him with the flat stick in order to a good return to follow; as evidenced by a T10 finish at the WGC-Mexico and T16 at Sawgrass last week.
In among the chaos that follows Bradley around, six of his last ten rounds have been in the 60s, and if he stays straight from tee-to-green he should do just fine.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 6th
- Total Driving – 12th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Russell Knox (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 67.1, GPFP: 84.55 Salary: $8,100)
The adopted Floridan played very nicely at Sawgrass with some excellent tee-to-green numbers, and he’s another who will enjoy the sterner test at Innisbrook.
He’s nearly a winner on home soil having lost in a play-off in the Honda Classic, and we know that the dense tree-lines won’t faze him – even if we recognize the Scot as an exceptional Links player – given that he has won the WGC HSBC-Champions at Sheshan International.
Top-20s at the Desert Classic, Phoenix Open and AT&T Pebble Beach confirm the idea that Knox is in form, and that’s handy for a player that has shown well at the Copperhead Course in the past.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 25th
- Greens in Regulation – 48th
- Scoring Average – 64th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Joel Dahmen (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 61.9, GPFP: 49.54 Salary: $7,400)
Dahmen went ‘viral’ this week when his caddie Geon Bonnalie took on the ‘one chip challenge’….and instantly regretted it.
Both come across as a likable pair, and so it was nice that Dahmen found form at Sawgrass last week with a T12 finish.
Perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised given that he loves playing on Bermuda, and as a Par 72 specialist he should be able to take advantage on the Par 5s at Innisbrook.
His neat-and-tidy game should suit the Copperhead layout, and his recent improvement – whether aided by social media heroism or not – should continue.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 12th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 23rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 74th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brian Harman (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 49.7, GPFP: 39.77 Salary: $7,000)
Another who made a welcome return to form at Sawgrass was Brian Harman, who from out of nowhere gained strokes on the field in every department in his T8 finish.
It’s no coincidence that Harman has played well at courses like Quail Hollow, Waialae and Ridgewood CC: he enjoys having tree lines to work with and doglegging fairways, and as a left hander he can create some unique shot shapes that the right handers will struggle to replicate.
A player with two PGA TOUR titles, a major T2 and eleven other top-fives, off the back of a T8, at a track that, in theory (despite his track record), should suit? Sign us up.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 42nd
- Driving Accuracy – 42nd
- SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship
Charl Schwartzel (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 48.4, GPFP: 38.72 Salary: $8,200)
The South African’s recent renaissance came to a halt at Sawgrass, but on a track where he is very comfortable we hope he can burst back to form.
Schwartzel found something in Puerto Rico, where he finished T6, and followed up with T16 at the Honda Classic.
A backwards step in THE PLAYERS last week is a hindrance, but at Innisbrook – where he has won (2016) and finished T6 (2017) – we would expect a better return.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 34th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 49th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 85th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship
J.T. Poston (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 71.2, GPFP: 56.95 Salary: $7,900)
The 25-year-old is a solid, consistent pick at the minute, and at a course like the Copperhead where players can get chewed up and spat out, that’s a handy attribute.
He’s made the cut in each of his last eight starts, and while his finishing positions have varied wildly – from T7 at the Desert Classic to T66 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – he is simply playing good golf.
Poston opened 68-69 at Sawgrass, and his Strokes Gained data was positive in all areas: including, crucially, some handy putting on the Bermuda.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 35th
- SG: Putting – 59th
- SG: Approach – 71st
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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