Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

The last couple of weeks on the PGA TOUR have seen events where the eventual winner has struggled to get over the line; a reminder that, no matter what you have achieved in your career, getting the job done can be difficult.

Something, whatever it may have been, clicked for Rory McIlroy out on the Sawgrass track on Sunday. T2 heading into the final round, the Irishman was presumably watching the leaderboard updates as Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood faltered in tough conditions.

McIlroy double-bogeyed the fourth, but rather than ending his hopes of lifting THE PLAYERS Championship trophy for the first time, it acted as a catalyst for glory as he played the rest of his round in -4 on a day of few low scores.

What makes a good champion? Right now, opportunism appears to be high up on the list.

How will the winner of this week’s Valspar Championship get the job done? Given how the Florida Swing has gone so far we can expect some late drama, and that was the case at the Innisbrook Resort 12 months ago when Paul Casey, another who finds winning a chore, came from nowhere with a strong final round and that was ultimately the difference.

Bubba Watson of the United States plays a shot from a greenside…

Bubba Watson of the United States plays a shot from a greenside bunker on the first hole during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented by Mastercard at the Bay Hill Club on March… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

There are certain similarities between the Copperhead Course, our host this week, and Sawgrass. Both have danger lurking at every turn, and once again the four Par 5s – unusual for a Par 71 layout – will prove key. Both are Bermuda too, with average width fairways and smaller greens than normal.

The fairways at Innisbrook feature thicker tree lines and more extreme doglegs, and so there are some rather hairy tee shots here and missed fairways are almost a given.

Water is also in play on five holes, and while it won’t play as much of a part as it does at Sawgrass, clearly precision play and course management will be crucial to the eventual champion this week.

With all of that in mind, who takes their place in our shortlist of sleepers for the Valspar Championship?

[membership level=”0″]

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Valspar Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Bubba Watson – Vegas Odds 50/1 – When there’s an event that requires shot shaping around tight, doglegging fairways, Bubba is a name that often springs to mind.

It simply brings out the best in his game: that ability to shape the ball both ways around the trees gives him an advantage over many in the field.

Think about the layouts where he has won: Augusta (twice), Riviera, Sheshan International, Ridgewood CC, TPC River Highlands….the list goes on.

The one thing they all have in common is the need to fade and draw the ball, and Bubba has thrived.

He’s playing reasonably well (three top-20s in last five starts), and while he would prefer to be on Bentgrass or Poa Annua no doubt, Bubba can get streaky with the flat stick too.

Jason Kokrak – Vegas Odds 50/1 – It didn’t quite work out for Kokrak at Sawgrass, but it was another cut made to frank his recent excellent form.

It’s five top-20s in his last seven starts for the 33-year-old, and a particular penchant for Bermuda golf keeps him onside this week.

Plus, he seems to love life at Innisbrook too, with three top-20 finishes here in four visits including top-10s in 2015 and ’18.

Is he an event winner? Arguably not, but for DFS gamers looking for a value pick or bettors seeking some each way value Kokrak is of interest.

Kevin Kisner – Vegas Odds 50/1 – There have been some encouraging signs for Kevin Kisner of late.

Four consecutive finishes between T23 and T28 are evidence that he is on the brink of something more substantial, and a pair of opening 68s at Sawgrass confirmed the notion.

He drifted slightly from there, but with strokes gained in all departments the positivity keeps on coming.

A former winner on Bermuda at the RSM Classic, Kisner putted very nicely at Sawgrass and so the foundation is there for a strong showing at Innisbrook.

Brandt Snedeker – Vegas Odds 60/1 – A change in swing coach for Snedeker paid instant dividends at Sawgrass.

The hook up with his old flame (and they say never go back to your ex!) Todd Anderson brought immediate reward, with Sneds recording some outstanding tee-to-green numbers at the Pete Dye layout.

And so in one sense we can forget all that has gone before for him this season, and instead focus on a run of six straight cuts made at Innisbrook including a best of T4.

Ryan Moore – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Out of nowhere, Moore opened with a round of 67 at Sawgrass, but that appeared to be a brief return to form after following up with a 74 on Friday.

But he then returned on Saturday to post a healthy 69, and so the conclusion is that the five-time PGA TOUR winner is rounding up into something we can call form again.

He’s one of the few in the field with a really stellar record at Innisbrook, with top-five finishes in 2015 and ’16, plus T18 in 2017.

We probably shouldn’t be surprised, given that he has performed well at Augusta too, and ahead of a Masters return Moore will be looking to consolidate his Sawgrass improvements.

[/membership]

Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Valspar Championship here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.22%” bar_text=”3 out of 93 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”12.90%” bar_text=”12 out of 93 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”40.87%” bar_text=”38 out of 93 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”5.26%” bar_text=”1 out of 19 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”5.26%” bar_text=”1 out of 19 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”67.74%” bar_text=”63 out of 93 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

---

Cover photo via Instagram