Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
2019 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Fantasy Preview
Cometh the hour, cometh the man at the Valspar Champions last week….but it probably wasn’t the one you expected.
Paul Casey, the defending champion, was on shot clear of Dustin Johnson, who looked hellbent on adding yet another trophy to his collection, with one round to play at Innisbrook.
Consequently, many felt that DJ’s firepower would be too much for the Englishman, even with the Copperhead Course showings its teeth as it dried out.
But oddly, if you were an alien beamed down to Earth for the day you wouldn’t have known who was the world number one, as Johnson failed to make a birdie in his 74 and Casey, despite his trademark Sunday wobble, just about getting home in 72.
Paul Casey of England celebrates with the winner’s trophy after the…
Paul Casey of England celebrates with the winner’s trophy after the final round of the Valspar Championship on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Golf Resort on March 24, 2019 in Palm Harbor,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
There were chances for others: Louis Oosthuizen, after opening his round with an eagle, couldn’t really capitalize and had to make do with a share of T2. And Jason Kokrak, seeking his maiden PGA TOUR title win, showed just how difficult it is to hold your game together as the finishing line looms, bogeying the last and ending his hopes of glory.
And so it was Casey who, for the second year in a row at Innisbrook, just about took care of business.
The nature of business is rather different this week: we’re off to Austin, Texas for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, the one time a year where the unique format is played on Tour.
It’s something a little bit different for DFS gamers to get their heads around, and this will be the second year that DraftKings offers a full slate and a unique scoring system to liven up the action somewhat!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week’s horse pick Dustin John finished T6 and continues to pour it on heading into golf’s first major … The Masters, a place we have yet to see DJ shine.
In our Tuesday Sleeper report, the top two picks were Bubba Watson (T4) and Jason Kokrak (T2) who certainly added fire power to the roster.
In total for the week between both our main picks and sleeper picks we 7/12 in cuts made including three Top 6 finishes.
Paul Casey of England celebrates on the 18th green after winning the…
Paul Casey of England celebrates on the 18th green after winning the Valspar Championship on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Golf Resort on March 24, 2019 in Palm Harbor, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2019 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Field
Some 62 of the world’s top 64 players according to the OWGR will tee up at the Austin Country Club, including former winners Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and the defending champion, Bubba Watson.
There are lots of notable firsts too, with Bryson DeChambeau making his Match Play debut, Tiger Woods making his first ever start at Austin CC and Justin Rose returning for the first time since 2016.
Just a matter of weeks ahead of The Masters, it will be intriguing to see how the likes of Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are swinging.
The top 16 according to the OWGR will be seeded here and kept apart in the first phase of competition, with blind draws deciding who makes up the rest of the groups from seed pools from 17-32, 33-48 and so on.
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland poses with the trophy after winning…
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland poses with the trophy after winning THE PLAYERS Championship on March 17, 2019 on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
This will be the fourth edition of the Match Play hosted by the Austin Country Club, a track a short drive from the city that winds its way along the Colorado River.
It’s a unique layout that encompasses two separate stretches: the first nine holes are played in the hills on undulating terrain, and the second line are on the flat ground flanked by Lake Austin.
This is your standard Pete and Alice Dye layout, with danger at every turn but plenty of risk and reward too (think TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town Links and so on). And so that’s why all of the Par 5s are reachable in two, and why there’s a drivable Par 4; although each comes with its own dangers too.
In truth, this is the perfect course for match play golf!
It’s a short and strategic track at 7,040 yards for its Par 71, with water and deep pot bunkers the main hazards to avoid….plus the typical Texan wind, of course. Up in the hills on the opening stretch, correct club selection will be key to keep your ball in play on these rolling fairways.
The Bermuda greens will be quick as they tend to always be in this part of the world, and all-in-all conditions will be fantastic for an outstanding week of golf even if the match play format isn’t your bag.
Kevin Kisner of the United States plays his shot from the third tee…
Kevin Kisner of the United States plays his shot from the third tee during his final round match against Bubba Watson of the United States in the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at Austin… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Austin, TX
A quick reminder: the WGC-Dell Match Play is a five-day tournament, and so the action kicks off on Wednesday.
The general theme of the weather this year is that a decent start to proceedings will tail off in time for the weekend.
Wednesday and Thursday look set to be dry and warm, with the mercury reaching 78°F and wind speeds kept at around 14 mph.
Friday could bring with it change, as temperatures soar to a sweltering 83°F. But it will be humid, and there’s a risk of a thunderstorm or two as well.
The weekend will be cooler and possibly wet too, with wind speeds averaging around 12 mph.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson continued his renaissance at last year’s WGC-Dell Match Play, and in truth he was rarely pushed.
He sauntered through the group phase, winning both of his opening group games against Branden Grace and Marc Leishman before halving a dead rubber against Julian Suri.
In he final 16 brackets, he beat Brian Harman (2&1), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (5&3) and Justin Thomas (3&2), before tackling Kevin Kisner in the final.
There, he served up a masterclass of match play golf as his opponent tired, never giving Kisner a sniff of a chance in a 7&6 demolition.
Incredibly, only five of the top 16 seeds advanced to the bracket section of the event, with Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm winning just one match between them!
Highlights | Championship and Consolation | Dell Match Play
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the 2018 World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play, Bubba Watson defeats Kevin Kisner 7 & 6 in the Championship and Alex Noren defeats Justin Thomas 5 & 3 in the Consolation.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this Week
It’s a bold new world, this DFS Match Play lark, and that means there is an edge for those who play it smart with their draft. Happily, there’s a couple of big-hitting contests for gamers to tackle.
- PGA $400k Match Play Special: The winner here will trouser a cool $100k for their troubles; not bad for a $5 stake. The top 20% cash, with the top-20 taking home at least $500.
- PGA $200k Club Twirl: The big contests keep on coming with this $44 entry game, where the champion will ride out of town $50k richer. The top 500 players will all but double their money.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
It’s always intriguing trying to decode those who are likely to thrive in the match play environment and those who won’t.
A look at the last three winners here is arguably instructive. Jason Day is a fearsome competitor from Australia, Dustin Johnson was, at the time, streets ahead of anyone else in world golf, and Bubba had found his form and made hay at a course that suits him perfectly.
And the other thing they share in common? They are all tremendous off the tee.
Arguably, that is the key to match play golf: getting a good drive away, putting pressure on your opponent on the tee and handing yourself an advantage for the business end of each hole.
In theory, Total Driving is the key stat for match play golf: long and straight hitting always a plus in any form of the game, of course, but particularly in this mano a mano environment.
There are other little hints to look for too. Form on the Florida Swing is helpful, as the action remains on Bermuda this week. And being comfortable in the wind, particularly in desert-style conditions in the South, is a great help.
And just take a look at last year’s quarter finalists: Watson, Kisner, Thomas, Poulter, Aphibarnrat, Smith, Stanley and Noren.
Clearly, they are all excellent golfers, but it’s not the octet you would have predicted at the start. Shock results will happen this week, regardless of the perceived ease of the group draw that each player enjoys.
Lastly, here’s a quick reminder of how the points are dished out in DraftKings’ match play system:
- Hole won (+3), halved (+0.75), lost (-0.75).
- Hole not played (+1.6).
- Matches won (+5), halved (+2).
- Bonus for three consecutive holes won (+5).
- Bonus for no holes lost (+0.75).
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 93.06, GPFP: 89.34 Salary: $10,600)
It’s still something of a headscratcher that Jon Rahm performed so averagely in the Ryder Cup last year.
At a course we knew suited his game, the Spaniard won just a solitary point to go with his early exit in this event 12 months ago.
However, there are caveats to both of those statements. Rahm may have struggled in the fourballs, but he still achieved something outstanding in beating Tiger Woods in the singles on the Sunday.
And as far as this event is concerned, his run to the final in 2017 is evidence that both the match play format and the Austin CC layout suit.
Rahm loves Bermuda golf and as an Arizona State alumnus will feel right at home in the desert-like conditions. And with nine to-12 finishes in his last ten starts worldwide, we know he arrives in Austin with a hot hand.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 96.50, GPFP: 80.10 Salary: $9,500)
Curiously, Bryson doesn’t have much competitive match play experience; indeed, his tough initiation to life as a Ryder Cup player is the only relevant experience we can find on his resumé.
But you do wonder if his approach to the game is really suited to team-based golf, and here – with his success (or otherwise) in his own hands, we expect the scientist to flourish.
DeChambeau should enjoy the Austin Country Club too. He studied in Dallas and remains a Texan native to this day, and has won in desert-like conditions at the Shriners in the past too.
His scientific approach tends to come in handy at Pete Dye tracks (T3 at Harbour Town, T9 at TPC River Highland, T19 at TPC Sawgrass), and we suspect that the Match Play format will suit his unique approach to the sport.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 5th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
- Approaches from 175-200 Yards – 8th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Ian Poulter (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 84.95, GPFP:67.96 Salary: $7,700)
A winner of this event in 2010, Poulter also finished fourth in 2013 and reached the quarter-final stage at Austin CC last year.
The match play format seems to suit the Englishman down to the tee, and he has a habit of turning it on both individually and when representing Europe; he will surely go down as one of the best Ryder Cup players in history.
A winner of the Volvo World Match Play Championship in 2011, Poults has also triumphed in the Lone Star State in the Houston Open, so he will be feeling very comfortable this week.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 15th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 35th
- Birdie Average – 38th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Charles Howell III (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 85.46, GPFP: 99.13 Salary: $7,400)
A quietly-spoken and mild-mannered soul, you might think that Charles Howell III doesn’t have the aggressive personality type to thrive in match play golf.
But he’s reached the last 16 of this event for the past two years, and it’s actually his precise ball-striking game that appeals over the chest-thumping histrionics of some in this field.
Excellent from tee-to-green and putting as well as he has done in years, Chucky Three-Sticks will pepper the greens, hit high GIR numbers and create lots of birdie opportunities. You will have to play very well to beat him at Austin CC.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 2nd
- SG: Putting – 13th
- Birdie Average – 26th
Low-Tier Pick:
Kevin Kisner (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 69.78, GPFP: 73.97 Salary: $7,000)
We’ve very happy to see last year’s finalist available at such a throwaway price!
That may just make Kisner something of a chalk pick this week, of course, but it’s rare to find a $7,000 pick boasting such obvious credentials.
An event winner in Texas at the Fort Worth Invitational, Kisner has form in the Lone Star State and at Pete Dye track too; particularly Harbour Town, where his lack of length off the tee does not get penalized so readily.
His recent form has been very encouraging too, and aside from the WGC-Mexico Kisner has finished between T22 and T28 in each of his last five starts.
That’s form based on the foundation of strong tee-to-green play, and that’s a very handy angle ahead of a match play event.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 29th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 39th
- SG: Approach – 41st
Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 52.40, GPFP: 49.26 Salary: $6,700)
The ‘Barn Rat’ has some handy match play form to his name, but that has come under the radar and so he might just be an excellent sleeper play this week.
The Thai ace has won both the Paul Lawrie Match Play and World Super 6 Perth on the European Tour; the former is an out-and-out match play event and the latter has a series of six-hole shootout matches on the Sunday.
Those victories have come at a lower grade than this, admittedly, but Aphibarnrat showed his stripes in reaching the last eight here a year ago; topping a group featuring Rahm and Keegan Bradley and beating Charles Howell III in the last 16.
Some players just ‘get’ match play golf, and Aphibarnrat is one of them.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 28th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
- SG: Approach – 51st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Byeong Hun An (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.00, GPFP: 56.80 Salary: $6,300)
If you are looking for a super-bargain play for your roster this week, then Byeong Hun An looks like a smart pick.
What the Korean lacks in match play golf experience he more than makes up for in form on the Bermuda, finishing T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T26 at The PLAYERS.
Typically excellent off the tee, as proven by his stats this season, An could well spring a surprise or two this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
- Birdie Average – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 50th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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