Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – The Open Championship 2016
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Open Championship
The Open Championship 2016 Fantasy Preview
Welcome back! We have some exciting news for our Premium Members this week. We have officially launched our Key Fantasy Stats tool that allows you to sort and rank only the players in this week’s field in important fantasy stats like Greens in Regulation, Strokes Gained Putting, and even Scrambling. It’s one thing to consider how a player ranks on TOUR, but it’s even more beneficial for fantasy players to know how they rank within the field. Before we cover that in more detail in our Fantasy Notes section below, let’s check out the major story lines from Royal Troon.
Dustin Johnson will be the center of the media attention this week coming in as the hottest player on the planet. With a U.S. Open win followed up a week later with a WGC win and moving to 2nd in the World Rankings, it’s safe to say that DJ is the clear favorite for a lot of rosters out there. Are the days of struggling on the final day finally over for Dustin? His two recent wins were comebacks and his putter has made him a ton of money as of late.
We’d like to hope that Spieth is not “done,” but you can expect a lot of rosters benching him with Day, DJ, and Rory being the no-brainers to go with over him—at least for now. We’re not sure if we’re convinced of that, but let’s see what our indicator stats point to this week.
There are a ton of solid mid and low-tier players in the field, and you can put together a well-rounded lineup that could potentially hold two of the big four in it. We’ll see what DraftKings rosters our gurus come up with, but first let’s see happened last week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Due to the cancellation of the Greenbrier, our most recent event picked was the WGC-Cadillac, and our horse pick for that tourney was Jason Day. Needless to say, Jason didn’t disappoint, as Day put up 79.5 fantasy points with 1 eagle, 11 birdies, and 51 pars. He played great until the final few holes, where his game fell apart. Other than the surprise injury withdrawal of Brook Koepka, we still managed to average just under 60 fantasy points each from our other six players.
Although a Day win would have been nice, we’re still beating up on the oddsmakers and so far this season we have successfully picked eight winners out of 33 events, and our made-cut percentage is just over 75% of players picked.
Last Week’s Sleeper Report Fantasy Results
The Tuesday Sleeper Report also saw an unexpected withdrawal, as Daniel Berger withdrew after his first shot. Withdrawing after one shot of a non-cut event earns you $50,000 in this case; so we unfortunately fell on the other side of his quick fortune. Lingmerth was the real story coming off our long-shot list as he ended up with a T7 and 67.50 points.
The Open Championship 2016 Field
Another all-star lineup for the third consecutive week comes to you, with fantasy horses Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy leading the pack at the highest salary cap prices. DJ strolls in as the new No.2 in the world after winning back-to-back weeks, and he’ll be fighting it out for the top spot on rosters with No. 1 Jason Day. In total, 84 of the top 85 in this week’s Official World Golf Ranking will play in The Open.
A lot of talking heads are calling for a Rory McIlroy victory this week, primarily because of his dominate ability to run away with major championships, and well, let’s be honest–he’s due. But that wouldn’t be the reason we pick him if we decide to go that route. He’s been a little quiet on the PGA TOUR and has spent some time (winning) on the European Tour.
The tough part about picking a fantasy lineup in a week of a major is that ANYONE can win, so you have to have some kind of advantage or alternative strategy. Sleeper picks this week will be high caliber players, but be careful which ones you run with. Royal Troon in this weather is a slippery place to play golf. The last Open played at Royal Troon was in 2004, when Ernie Els (-10) lost in a playoff to Todd Hamilton (-10). Mickelson went -9 for the tournament that year, but we can’t put much emphasis on the scores from 12 years ago since a lot has changed for both the course and the players.
This Week’s Course Overview
Royal Troon GC measures in at 7,190 yards and plays as a challenging par 71. The key thing about this week is the weather—which might even be a bigger story than the course itself.
While the course presents challenges of deep bunkers and slippery greens, the winds and rain will certainly take their toll. They’re calling for high winds and rain almost all week. You put any one of these guys out there on a non-windy, dry 80º day, and we’re confident they’ll go really low. But that isn’t the case this week.
We’ll have more about Royal Troon in our Fantasy Notes section below, but here’s a idea of what some of these guys are up against this week:
Weather Forecast for Ayrshire, Scotland
It looks as if the event should get off without a hitch on Friday, with light wind and sunny skies most of the day. After that, it’s anyone’s game.
Wind gusts of over 30 mph will hit the area Friday through Sunday, and rain is in the forecast, too. It’s perfect Scottish weather for an Open Championship on a true links course. If you’re playing No Halftime this week, you may want to pick a player in Round One to beat out a player in rounds two, three, or four.
Last Year’s Results from The Open Championship
Zach Johnson spoiled Spieth’s run at a third straight major last year after winning on an extended weekend at St. Andrews. An epic three-man playoff finished on Monday, and Zach’s 6-under 66 set the pace all day after drilling an amazing 30-foot birdie putt.
After a 10 1/2-hour wind suspension on Saturday, the event had no choice but to run a day longer than usual and in the end, major winner ZJ was on top.
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday-Friday, 1:30 a.m.-4 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
- Saturday, 4-7 a.m. (GC); 7 a.m.-2:30 p.m. (NBC)
- Sunday, 4-7 a.m. (GC); 7 a.m.-2 p.m. (NBC).
- Mobile Broadcasts
- PGA TOUR LIVE: None
- RADIO
- Thursday-Friday, 3 a.m.-1 p.m. ET; Saturday, 4 a.m.-2 p.m.; Sunday, 3 a.m.-1 p.m. (SiriusXM).
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Open Championship this Week
No, that’s not a typo–DraftKings Millionaire Maker is now a $33 dollar entry fee. The $13 dollar price jump is the highest entry level this event has ever seen, and we’re pretty sure the stakes will only go up for bigger payouts. Regardless, there’s really only one game in town that everyone will be playing this week and that’s the big one. Here are the details:
- $3M FANTASY GOLF MILLIONAIRE [$1M TO 1ST]: It looks like 80,000 less players are expected to play this event than the U.S. Open, and with the price hike, it seems as if it’s a simple inflationary rise to compensate for the fewer players. But honestly, what does it matter? If you win, you’re still getting $1 million!
- No Halftime: Don’t forget about these guys; they have some great heads up matches out there that you pick up quickly for a small fee for a chance to double your money.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Open Championship
You asked for it, and we’ve delivered. Now with our “Key Fantasy Stats” feature, Premium Members can instantly compare players in the current week’s field in nine different key fantasy golf stats to make more solid lineup decisions. We’re all after the big prize this week: the million dollars on DraftKings and here’s a tool that can give you an edge over the competition. For example: let’s say you need to select a player in the $7K-8K salary range that excels in scrambling and greens-in-regulation. Simply filter our new stats ranking tool by your desired salary range and as you can see here, Kuchar looks like the best option:
Just note that any players that do not show up on this stat page have been removed since they do not have enough events on the PGA TOUR to qualify for such stats.
Our Fantasy Indicators page is also available to sort players based on Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG), Golficity Projected Fantasy Points (GPFP), and Price Per Fantasy Point (PPFP).
This week we like Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, and Strokes Gained Putting as usual, but we’re going to sprinkle in GIR, Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and Birdie Average for even better accuracy in this talent-packed field. Players who are trending on TOUR will move up in those particular ranks on both of our stats pages, and these tools easily allow us to pick favorably.
Where else can you get fantasy tools like this? For the price of a turkey sandwich, you can now have access to tools that our own experts are using, and that’s the edge that just might bank you the big one!
Good luck this week. We can’t wait for all the “winner” emails to start rolling in…
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Open Championship
Horse Pick
Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 91.64 GPFP: 118.22 Salary: $12,000): For our horse pick this week, we narrowed it down to Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, carefully eliminating Rory. You can call us crazy for picking a guy who won a major and a WGC back-t0-back coming into this major, but the chances of him of winning are actually much better than anyone else in the field. Take a look at his stats: 118.22 in GPFP and his FPPG is a remarkable 91.64 per week! The next player to qualify in that rank is Adam Scott at 85.67. DJ’s monkey is finally off his back and his ability to close has been proven twice in a row now. He ranks 16th in the field in GIR and is just about tied for 1st in Driving Distance. His accuracy has improved dramatically in his approach game, and his putting has finally turned the corner we’ve all been waiting for. We’re riding the wave with DJ in the top spot this week. Did we mention that he owns four Top 15 finishes in his Open career?
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 77th on TOUR, 28th in the field
- Birdie Average: 3rd on TOUR, 3rd in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 146th on TOUR, 51st in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 30th on TOUR, 16th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 38th on TOUR, 15th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 2nd on TOUR, 2nd in the field
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 1st
Top Tier Pick
Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG: 84.23 GPFP: 80.02 Salary: $10,600): It will be tough to get DJ and Scott on your roster together, but it can be done. In this Top Tier spot, we essentially want to offer a lower-priced horse pick for alternative rosters hedging against their DJ pick. The $10.6 price tag could allow you to add more firepower in the mid and low-tier market and allow you to do without any sub $7,000-priced players. Scott has found his groove again, with four Top 18 finishes in his last five events, including his T10 recently at Firestone. He ranks 12th in the field in GIR and 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach-The-Green. He’s an all-round solid performer in majors and has been in contention at The Open in recent years.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 101st on TOUR, 37th in the field
- Birdie Average: 7th on TOUR, 7th in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 162nd on TOUR, 57th in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 23rd on TOUR, 12th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting:
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green:
* Most Notable Stat:
Mid-Tier Pick ($8,000-$9,000)
Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 68.07 GPFP: 83.72 Salary: $8,600): Mickelson has been on our radar for the past few weeks as the lefty veteran and a winner of this event in the past. Despite no wins since his Scottish Open/Open back-to-back titles in 2013, Mickelson’s game has progressed dramatically over the last month. He already has five Top 5 finishes in 2016, including a T13 in Scotland last week with over 85 Fantasy Points. In his last appearance at Royal Troon he finished third, but as mentioned earlier, it’s not a stat we’re banking on, since he was 12 years younger and the course was in different condition. He ranks fourth in strokes gained: putting and fifth in adjusted scoring. He also ranks 5th in this week’s field in scrambling, a crucial stat at Royal Troon.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 14th on TOUR, 5th in the field
- Birdie Average: 8th on TOUR, 8th in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 162nd on TOUR, 58th in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 100th on TOUR, 46th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 4th on TOUR, 4th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 16th on TOUR, 16th in the field
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 5th
Low-Tier Picks (Sub-$8,000)
Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 55/1 FPPG: 68.87 GPFP: 82.64 Salary: $7,900): What looked to be a setup for a disappointing week at the Scottish last week with an opening 75, Reed closed out strong to a T10 with closing 67’s. With the Olympic players dropping like flies, Reed made the cut and is fueled up for the chance to play in Rio. His short game skills will work well at Royal Troon, and he comes in ranked 3rd on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green. He’s a solid pickup at a price tag of under $8,000 this week.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 8th on TOUR, 3rd in the field
- Birdie Average: 62nd on TOUR, N/A in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 140th on TOUR, 49th in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 121st on TOUR, 53rd in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 88th on TOUR, 33rd in the field
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 37th on TOUR, 32nd in the field
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green: 3rd
Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 68/1 FPPG: 77.50 GPFP: 62.00 Salary: $7,800): Schwartzel is overlooked a lot in fantasy rankings, but shouldn’t be this week in our opinion. In his last two starts, Charl finished T5 and T7 and has four Top 20 finishes since 2010. His game is solid from tee to green, and at $7,800, he could be a dark horse for your fantasy roster. He ranks 8th on TOUR in SG: Approach-The-Green and 9th on TOUR in scoring average.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 72nd on TOUR, 27th in the field
- Birdie Average: 13th on TOUR, 13th in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 145th on TOUR, 51st in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 21st on TOUR, 11th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 84th on TOUR, 8th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 9th on TOUR, 9th in the field
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Approach – The – Green: 4th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Open Championship
Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 85/1 FPPG: 67.75 GPFP: 65.72 Salary: $7,400): Piercy is the hottest sleeper pick out there after banking two 2nd place finishes in the both the US Open and WGC over the last two weeks. At $7,400, Piercy is a solid choice for a high-end sleeper pick, and could continue the trend into Royal Troon. He makes a lot of eagles, and in case you forgot, those bank eight points each in DraftKings. He is averaging 76 FPPG over the last three events.
- Scrambling: 130th on TOUR, 47th in the field
- Birdie Average: 55th on TOUR, N/A in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 106th on TOUR, 38th in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 34th on TOUR, 18th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 131st on TOUR, 49th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 73rd on TOUR, 56th in the field
* Most Notable Stat: Eagles: 22nd
Salary Cap League Super Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Open Championship
David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds 150/1 FPPG: 62.50 GPFP: 52.50 Salary: $6,700): Lingmerth is a top-notch “super sleeper” pick this week at $6,700, with a lot of recent success. He missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open, but before that David notched four consecutive T27 finishes, including a T12 and a T7. He might be the most consistent off of the tee in the field, with precision-like accuracy and a very good putting stroke. Keep in mind that he also ranks 7th in Overall Putting Average on TOUR.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 82nd on TOUR, 30th in the field
- Birdie Average: 49th on TOUR, N/A in the field
- Driving Accuracy: 15th on TOUR, 5th in the field
- Greens in Regulation: 95th on TOUR, 43rd in the field
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 103rd on TOUR, 38th in the field
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 54th on TOUR, 42nd in the field
* Most Notable Stat: Overall Putting Average: 7th
Sample DraftKings Lineup With Dustin Johnson
Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Dustin Johnson
Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2016 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
- Jason Day (Golficity Odds 5/1): T3 ($449,350, 79.50 FP)
- Brooks Koepka (Golficity Odds 15/1): WD ($50,000, 2.00 FP)
- Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 38/1): T27 ($80,667, 57.30 FP)
- Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 45/1): T33 ($76,000, 48.00 FP)
- J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 70/1): T27 ($80,667, 57.50 FP)
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2016 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
- Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 75/1): T33 ($76,000, 46.50 FP)
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2016 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
- Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 80/1): T16 ($105,200, 61.50 FP)
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Open Championship with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Flickr.
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