Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Open Championship

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for The Open Championship 2016

The Open Championship Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR gets back on track in a big way this week as it heads to the Royal Troon Golf Club in South Ayrshire, Scotland for The Open Championship.  The third major of the year took root 156 years ago and is known for being played on some of the oldest, most beautiful courses that Europe has to offer.  The venue for this installment was last host in 2004 and another seven times before that, and this week’s players will once again face the par-71, 7,175-yard course that calls the rugged coast of Scotland home.

As with any major, the winners in this event have been some of the most prestigious in the game, and each of the last three victors–Zach Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Phil Mickelson–are in the Top 20 of the current Official World Golf Rankings.  Johnson’s 2015 win was his second career major after first taking home the trophy at the 2015 Masters, and he needed to put in extra work to get it.

After 72 holes of golf and numerous weather delays, Johnson went into a Monday playoff with 2010 Open winner Louis Oosthuizen and Australian Marc Leishman.  Over the four holes, Johnson bested Oosthuizen by a single stroke.  His winning score of 15-under-par was better than the average of eight-under over the previous four seasons.  The last time this event took place at Royal Troon, it was American Todd Hamilton who bested Ernie Else in a playoff after going 10 shots under par over the four days.

The field will once again be tremendous, as everyone clamors to get their hands on one of the major trophies, and it will be led by a strong quartet of players the likes of which this game has not seen in a long time.

Coming into this week, OWGR No. 2 golfer Dustin Johnson has won in his last two outings, the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational, and certainly seems to have gotten the big event monkeys off of his back, as he currently leads the FedExCup standings.  Behind him in the odds sits world No. 1 golfer Jason Day, who has eight wins since the start of the 2015 season, including his first major at the PGA Championship, two WGC events, and THE PLAYERS Championship.  Additionally, no one can forget No. 3 Jordan Spieth, who is looking to add the British Open to his 2015 Masters and U.S. Open victories, and four-time major winner Rory McIlory.  Following those big names are nearly all the golfers from the top 85 in the world, with two notables missing in No. 16 Brooks Koepka and No. 67 Jaco Van Zyl.

The majors are always a place for the best in the sport to shine brightest, but there certainly are some surprises that make their ways through the cracks and perform well above expectations in these big events.  Below are a handful of “sleeper” players with longer odds who could do just that over the four days at The Open.

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The Open Championship 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Open Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Hideki Matsuyama – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Matsuyama will look to become the first Japanese player to take down a major championship, and he seems to always be a contender from week-to-week, including in the biggest of tournaments.  He has made the cut in each of his Open Championship visits, putting up his best effort in 2013, when he tied for sixth–one of his four top-10’s in 15 major starts.  In 2016, Matsuyama has a victory at the Waste Management Open among his five top 10’s over 15 starts, with a pair of those coming at the Masters and THE PLAYERS Championship.  His strong play comes from ranking in the top 50 in GIR (67.57%, 35^th on TOUR) and Strokes Gained from Tee-To-Green (1.414, 8^th on TOUR), which has given him the 16^th best scoring average (70.251) amongst his peers.  Matsuyama has as much talent as some of the best out there, but needs to put it all together over the four rounds to get his name written in the golf history books.

Andy Sullivan – Vegas Odds 80/1 – Sullivan jumped into the spotlight last season on the European Tour, winning on three separate occasions and finishing eighth in the Race to Dubai.  The 29-year-old played in his first Open Championship last season as well, and was able to hold his own, tying for 30^th while also having his best major showing earlier this season at the U.S. Open, where he was able to tie for 23^rd.  He’s continued to play well in 2016, and a recent stretch of five consecutive outings of 23^rd of better coming into this event has vaulted him into the top 10 in the Race to Dubai once again.  In the tough Scottish Open and Open de France, he has placed sixth and fifth respectively while carding a 71 or better in each of the eight rounds.  Sullivan has hit 71% of GIR overseas (23^rd on European Tour), which has led to a stroke average of 71.39 (32^nd on TOUR).  This English-born golfer is hot at the moment, and should feel comfortable playing at this type of course.

Scott Piercy – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Piercy has quietly earned three PGA TOUR victories since 2011, and if it wasn’t for Dustin Johnson, there is a good chance that he would have won in each of his last couple of times out as well.  He came away the runner-up in both the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational, earning a round of par or better in seven of eight attempts during the stretch as he watched Johnson win each week.  This will be just his second Open Championship visit ever; his first came in 2013, where he missed the cut, and he will look to make it to the weekend for the 17^th time in 19 attempts during the 2016 campaign.  The San Diego University alum is big off the tee (297.9 yards per drive, 33^rd on TOUR) and hits Greens with regularity (67.62%, 34^th on TOUR), which has led to nearly $3 million in earnings this year.  Piercy will look to add to his two top fives in 13 major appearances when he tees it up at Royal Troon this week.

Francesco Molinari – Vegas Odds 125/1 – It’s been a while since Molinari has seen his name at the top of the leaderboard, last winning on the European Tour in 2012.  He nearly broke that streak at the 100^th Open de France with a runner-up performance after a final round of 66 and was solid at THE PLAYERS Championship with a tie for seventh.  The British Open has been his favorite of the four majors since 2009, making the cut in five of seven chances with three top 15’s.  Molinari is not exceptional in any one part of his golf game, but has gained plenty of strokes on the field with his Approach to the Green (0.565, 17^th on TOUR), from Tee-To-Green (1.004, 17^th on TOUR), and Around the Green (0.272, 35^th on TOUR).  He has done a great job of making it to the weekend in the biggest of events, and could see himself making a run at a top spot when Sunday rolls around.

Chris Kirk – Vegas Odds 200/1 – Despite winning four times on the PGA TOUR in the past, Kirk is not getting much of a chance from the oddsmakers amongst this very strong field.  He is having his worst career season based off of his FedExCup standings, but showed he knows how to put up big weeks, with a fifth at the Match Play Championship and four other top 15’s.  His inconsistency has been his biggest issue during the 2016 campaign, and it was evident in recent tournaments, as he has posted two rounds of 66 or better, but also had three rounds of 72^nd or worse which took him out of contention.  Many facets of Kirk’s game are strong, and he ranks 18^th in Sand Save Percentage (58.26%), 27^th in Scrambling (62.65%), and 29^th in Proximity to the Hole (34’7”).  If he can put everything together overseas, he has a chance at getting back to his former self and surprising a ton of people.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for The Open Championship here.

Cover photo via Flickr.