Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 WGC-HSBC Champions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 WGC-HSBC Champions
2016 WGC-HSBC Champions Fantasy Preview
With the fourth and final WGC event of the calendar year, Sheshan International once again welcomes the cream of world golf to China for the HSBC Champions renewal.
Once upon a time this was a co-sanctioned event between the Asian and European Tours, but in 2009 it was upgraded to World Golf Championship status and has been a fixture of the fall schedule ever since.
Russell Knox will be looking to emulate the feat achieved by Justin Thomas at the CIMB Classic last week: defending a title successfully. But given the quality of the field here, the Scot will surely have his work cut out.
Between this week’s WGC-HSBC Champions and the Sanderson Farms Championship there’s plenty of DFS action to be had this week, so let’s dive right in!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Overall last week’s CIMB was a major success as we nailed four Top 10 finishes from our seven picks including our key sleeper pick Scott Hend who finished T7 and banked 111.5 fantasy points at a $7,800 price tag.
Moore (T17 – 86 fantasy points) turned out being a decent horse pick after all. Remember that we had gambled on a ‘cheaper’ Moore over the more heavily favored Reed (T51, 68 FP, $11,200) and Casey (T21, 80 FP, $11,600) which paid off nicely. Not only did we bank a few more points by going with Moore in the top slot, we also saved room in the salary cap to pickup Knox (T10, 92 FP, $8,200) and Hend (T7, 111.5 FP, $7,800). Remember, in DFS, it’s all about having MORE good players then ONE great player.
We also need to mention our Tuesday Sleeper Report in which highlighted Anirban Lahiri as a long-shot sleeper pick with a fantastic value. Coupled with Knox and Hend, Lahiri’s T3 with his impressive rounds of 66, 66, 65, had us cashing in big this week in only the second event of the new season!
In all, here is how last week’s seven main picks faired:
- Ryan Moore (Vegas Odds: 16/1, Salary: $10,600): T17 ($101,500, FP)
- Kevin Chappell (Vegas Odds: 33/1, Salary: $9,100): T45 ($20,496, FP)
- Russell Knox (Vegas Odds: 45/1, Salary: $8,200): T10 ($150,000, FP)
- Si-Woo Kim (Vegas Odds: 66/1, Salary: $7,900): T10 ($150,000, FP)
- Marcus Fraser (Vegas Odds: 80/1, Salary: $6,400): T60 ($15,120, FP)
- Scott Hend (Vegas Odds: 80/1, Salary: $7,800): T7 ($1225,750, FP)
- Aaron Baddeley (Vegas Odds: 150/1, Salary: $7,100): T10 ($150,000, FP)
Lahiri’s success serves as just another reminder not to complete your rosters until glancing through our Tuesday Sleeper reports for long-shots that can help stretch your salary.
The 2016 WGC-HSBC Champions Field
As a WGC event, we can expect a quality field and we certainly haven’t been let down here in China. Barring Jason Day—who is still nursing his bad back—this week we have the FedExCup champion (Rory McIlroy), last season’s four major winners (Danny Willett, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Jimmy Walker), Team USA’s unofficial leader during the Ryder Cup (Patrick Reed), and a raft of former major champions in Adam Scott, Martin Kaymer and Bubba Watson.
Possible future major winners such as Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia have also decided to stay in the Far East and battle for WGC honors this week.
In total, sixteen of the world’s top 20, eighteen of the combined Ryder Cup teams and some of Asia’s brightest young talents join forces to create a fascinating field.
This Week’s Course Preview
The WGC HSBC Champions will be hosted by the Sheshan International Club in Shanghai, China, and like at the CIMB Classic last week low scores are expected.
Of the last five winners here only one (Bubba Watson in 2014) has failed to score -20 or lower, and that was because the rough was left deliberately up that year. Dustin Johnson’s -24 in 2013 highlights the opportunities on offer, as does the joint 18-hole record of 62 shared by Martin Kaymer and Danny Willett. With rain expected to soften greens on Thursday, could we see a sub-60 round?
Measuring in at 7,261 yards for its Par 72, Sheshan was designed by the Nelson & Haworth team and features Seashore Paspalum fairways of average width. The bentgrass greens will run at 11 on the stimp this week (weather permitting) and their undulating nature shows why GIR and short stick excellence are key this week (more on that later).
Changes have been made in the past few years to try and stiffen the test, with trees and bunkers added and the Par 5s lengthened, however those alterations have yet to hit their mark with four of the last five winning scores ranging from -20 to -24.
Expect another birdie fest out east this week!
Weather Forecast for Shanghai, China
Much like the CIMB Classic in Malaysia last week, the build-up to the start of the tournament looks set to be dogged by rain. There’s a 100% chance of rain on Wednesday (you can’t get much more certain than that!), and heavy downpours are expected throughout the day; raising the chances of a delayed start on Thursday.
Showers are expected on Thursday, principally between 9am and 12pm (79% chance of rain), but things are expected to pick up through the weekend in time for Sunday’s finale, where sunshine and a top temperature of 63˚F are anticipated.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC-HSBC Champions
In 2015 it was Russell Knox that entered the winner’s circle for the first time as a PGA TOUR pro after an outstanding -20 saw him prevail by two shots over Kevin Kisner.
The Scot ranked T1 for Birdies Made, T5 for Driving Accuracy (73% of fairways found), T3 for GIR and 6th for Putts per GIR—can performances get much more consistent than that? No stats were published for Driving Distance but a longest drive of 281 yards from Knox suggests a more meticulous approach will be of benefit to the players this week.
It is going to take something extraordinary to win this tournament, and that is why it is shaping up to be a fantastic spectacle.
The victory was all the more remarkable for Knox as he was only on the alternates list just seven days prior to the first tee, but after scrambling to secure his Visa to travel he made all the effort worthwhile in a sterling performance.
A weather delay could have scuppered the Scot, but he kept his cool on an extended Sunday session to take his lead at the 54-hole mark through to the clubhouse.
[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_A2Mn-OPto[/embedyt]
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Wednesday-Saturday, 11 p.m.-4 a.m. ET (Golf Channel).
- Mobile Broadcasts:
- None
- RADIO:
- None
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-HSBC Champions this Week
Attention once again turns to DraftKings for what is a split slate this week, with this event taking prominence over the slightly B-rated Sanderson Farms Championship, and at the time of this writing already a busy raft of contests where live.
- PGA $100K Birdie: With such an exciting field this week, it is this big boy that takes pride of place in DraftKings’ slate where just shy of 40,000 players will duke it out for the $100 prize pool, and all for just a $3 buy-in.
- Casual PGA $10K Par 5: A total prize pool of $10,000 is up for grabs here, with the winner of the 2352 player contest pocketing a cool $500.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-HSBC Champions
Russell Knox’s win here in 2015 was the first of his career, and came as he sat a then lowly 85th in the world. In hindsight we can see that ranking was a bit of an aberration, and this event has required tried-and-tested winners to get over the line, with nine of the last eleven champions all ranking inside the world’s top 30 at the time of their victory.
Scheduling at this early juncture of the PGA TOUR season can often be a factor, and we note that last year Knox had played the CIMB Classic in Malaysia the week before, as did the runner-up in China, Kevin Kisner. But that doesn’t necessarily have to be the way to play things: five of the first eight players home in this event last year hadn’t played the CIMB in the week prior.
Knox enjoyed a fantastic week in the Far East, cracking the code of his maiden win by ranking in the top ten for four obviously key metrics (Driving Accuracy, GIR, Putts Per GIR, and Birdies Made). Look at the roll call of former winners here too; Bubba, DJ, Ian Poulter, Martin Kaymer et al. Needless to say, it’s going to take something very special to get over the line in this stacked field.
A lack of form from Knox (MC-38-21) and Kisner’s (25-37) perspectives heading into the tournament suggests that Sheshan is a place you can find your feet quickly, and that is backed up by the fact that neither had played this stretch before in their careers. This is a course that accepts newbies and experienced heads alike!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions
Top Tier Pick:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 6/1, FPPG: 82.6, GPFP: 84.27 Salary: $12,100)
A bit of a no-brainer pick this week, what with the Irishman winning two of his last three stroke-play tournaments entered (including the TOUR Championship), while also playing tremendously well in the Ryder Cup in his previous outing and a career record on this Sheshan track that reads 5-4-6-11.
We all know the drill with McIlroy: on his day, he drives big and straight, hits plenty of greens and when his putter is hot—as it has been lately—well he’s as good as anyone on the dance floor.
Obviously his selection is going to take a decent chunk out of your salary cap, but here is a guy who looks primed to accumulate plenty of DFS points this week and perhaps the bonus of lifting the trophy.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 2nd (European Tour)
- Putts Per GIR – 6th (European Tour)
- Four top-15 finishes in four starts at Sheshan International
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Martin Kaymer (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 68.1, GPFP: 77.59 Salary: $8,700)
Let’s preface this by saying, ‘you could go with Knox here and save $100’. Knox has been hot, but we love Kaymer’s experience here. We’ve spoken at length about the fine record of European players at this course and in China in general, and here’s a German that is a former winner here and who holds the joint lowest record round of 62 from a different visit!
Kaymer clearly loves this track—he’s made the cut in all six starts, and never finished lower than T30. That run features three top-10s and of course that victory in 2011, and for a player who has kept a low profile Stateside this season we’re happy to have him on board and what is a pretty respectable price.
We have some excellent form numbers to work with too, including 14 consecutive cuts made on European and PGA TOUR events, eleven of his last thirteen appearances have resulted in top-20 returns—eight of which were top-10, and 13 of his last 16 rounds have been in the 60s.
As a former major winner, Kaymer will have no qualms about mixing it up with such esteemed competition here.
Key Stats:
- Hitting an average of 72% of greens this season
- This season has witnessed fewest Putts Per Round for Kaymer since 2013
- Has finished in the top-10 of 8/13 events entered since the spring
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Francesco Molinari (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 63.6, GPFP: 68.02 Salary: $8,300)
As a former winner on this course who also won in his last outing in his home Italian Open, Molinari makes plenty of sense to have on board this week.
A winner here in 2010, Molinari’s history at Sheshan reads 9-1-21-23, and while he hasn’t been in town since 2013 we saw last year with Knox and Kisner’s heroics that prior course history is not necessarily a prerequisite for success.
It’s been a patchy campaign on the PGA circuit by Molinari’s high standards with just three top-10s to write home about, but let’s dig a bit deeper into those numbers elsewhere. A fter a second in the Open de France, a decent pair of performances in the summer-ending majors (T36 at The Open and T22 at the US PGA) sandwiched that fine victory on home soil in September.
Let’s hope that last outing proves the catalyst for a return to his winning form this week.
Key Stats:
- Putts Per GIR – 1st (European Tour)
- Driving Accuracy – 3rd (European Tour)
- Former course winner who has gone four from four at Sheshan
Mid-Tier Pick #3:
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 76.6, GPFP: 64.32 Salary: $7,600)
If DFS managers are savvy with their drafting this week then they should be able to work RCB into their roster at what looks a slightly undervalued price point.
This is the Spaniard’s first visit to Sheshan but as we’ve established already that doesn’t have to be a major problem, and Cabrera-Bello’s T10 at the CIMB Classic last week—where he hit an incredible 84% of greens—suggests his game is in fantastic condition at the moment.
He has a pair of previous top-10s on Chinese soil to his name, and his form dating back to the summer is outstanding, with cuts made at both The Open and PGA Championship plus a T5 at the Olympics and a steady return of T31 in a Links-based Alfred Dunhill Championship which doesn’t really suit his methodical style of play.
He’s only played one PGA TOUR event this term, and already he ranks top-20 for a stack of key metrics.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 8th
- Greens in Regulation – 3rd
- Scrambling – 16th
Low-Tier Pick
Alexander Levy (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 64.5,GPFP: 59.32 Salary: $7,300)
A win, three other top-5s and a T14 in eight starts in China….if playing golf in this country is a skill in itself then Levy has got all the boxes ticked this week.
He catches our eye for the above reason and due to his current form: a long-awaited return from injury has yielded four top-20 finishes in six starts, with a T7 at the Italian Open and a T4 at the British Masters bookending a fantastic performance at the Porsche European Open, where rounds of 63 and 62 fired the Frenchman to a third European Tour trophy.
Born in California, you suspect Levy would like his PGA TOUR card one day; mixing it up with some of the world’s best here is an eye-catching way to put yourself in the frame.
Key Stats:
- Three-time European Tour winner
- Five top-20s in China from eight starts
- Currently putting better than any other time in his career; 1.75 Putts per GIR
Sleeper Pick for the WGC-HSBC Champions
Branden Grace (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 68.1, GPFP: 75.64 Salary: $7,500)
One might say that the mild-mannered South African is the archetypal sleeper pick here. He has become the forgotten man of the PGA TOUR, a player many have pegged to be a future major winner but who has lost his way in recent times.
A maiden tour title at the RBC Heritage has been backed by six top-tens including two ‘money places’ at a pair of majors: T5 at the US Open and T4 at the PGA Championship.
Yes, his short stick has gone cold in recent times, but he’s had more than six weeks off to work on his game. At Vegas odds of 80/1 and a respectable DFS salary, Grace is worth the gamble this week.
Key Stats:
- 14 cuts made of 18 starts in 2016, nine of which yielded top-25 finishes
- Eight-time tournament winner in Europe (one in US)
- Finished T5 in this event last year
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-HSBC Champions
Scott Hend (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 67.4, GPFP: 53.94 Salary: $7,100)
We called up the unpredictable Aussie as a sleeper pick last week, and boy did he deliver: he played his last 54 holes in -17 to secure a share of seventh!
In 2016 he finished T4 and T6 in a pair of visits to China too, and was eighth here after 54 holes in 2015 before settling for a T19 finish.
There’s not much finesse to Hend’s game, but he does just find a way of getting the ball onto the green in smart fashion, and with closing rounds of 63 and 67 in Malaysia clearly his putting motion is in fine working order.
Key Stats:
- Asian Tour Order of Merit winner (almost!)
- Three-time event winner
- Back-to-back top-10s in China earlier this year
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups
Please note: The lineups provided here just examples of combinations that we suggest based on the picks highlighted above. As always, we suggest mixing and matching our picks with your own to give yourself the greatest competitive edge.
With McIlroy as Horse
Without McIlroy (Mid-Tier Heavy)
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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)
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