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Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 WGC-HSBC Champions

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Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 WGC-HSBC Champions

2016 WGC-HSBC Champions Fantasy Preview

With the fourth and final WGC event of the calendar year, Sheshan International once again welcomes the cream of world golf to China for the HSBC Champions renewal.

Once upon a time this was a co-sanctioned event between the Asian and European Tours, but in 2009 it was upgraded to World Golf Championship status and has been a fixture of the fall schedule ever since.

Russell Knox will be looking to emulate the feat achieved by Justin Thomas at the CIMB Classic last week: defending a title successfully.  But given the quality of the field here, the Scot will surely have his work cut out.

Between this week’s WGC-HSBC Champions and the Sanderson Farms Championship there’s plenty of DFS action to be had this week, so let’s dive right in!

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Overall last week’s CIMB was a major success as we nailed four Top 10 finishes from our seven picks including our key sleeper pick Scott Hend who finished T7 and banked 111.5 fantasy points at a $7,800 price tag.

Moore (T17 – 86 fantasy points) turned out being a decent horse pick after all.  Remember that we had gambled on a ‘cheaper’ Moore over the more heavily favored Reed (T51, 68 FP, $11,200) and Casey (T21, 80 FP, $11,600) which paid off nicely.  Not only did we bank a few more points by going with Moore in the top slot, we also saved room in the salary cap to pickup Knox (T10, 92 FP, $8,200) and Hend  (T7, 111.5 FP, $7,800).  Remember, in DFS, it’s all about having MORE good players then ONE great player.

We also need to mention our Tuesday Sleeper Report in which highlighted Anirban Lahiri as a long-shot sleeper pick with a fantastic value.  Coupled with Knox and Hend, Lahiri’s T3 with his impressive rounds of 66, 66, 65, had us cashing in big this week in only the second event of the new season!

In all, here is how last week’s seven main picks faired:

  • Ryan Moore (Vegas Odds: 16/1, Salary: $10,600):  T17 ($101,500,  FP)
  • Kevin Chappell (Vegas Odds: 33/1, Salary: $9,100): T45 ($20,496,  FP)
  • Russell Knox (Vegas Odds: 45/1, Salary: $8,200): T10 ($150,000,  FP)
  • Si-Woo Kim (Vegas Odds: 66/1, Salary: $7,900): T10 ($150,000,  FP)
  • Marcus Fraser (Vegas Odds: 80/1, Salary: $6,400): T60 ($15,120,  FP)
  • Scott Hend (Vegas Odds: 80/1, Salary: $7,800): T7 ($1225,750,  FP)
  • Aaron Baddeley (Vegas Odds: 150/1, Salary: $7,100): T10 ($150,000,  FP)

Lahiri’s success serves as just another reminder not to complete your rosters until glancing through our Tuesday Sleeper reports for long-shots that can help stretch your salary.

The 2016 WGC-HSBC Champions Field

As a WGC event, we can expect a quality field and we certainly haven’t been let down here in China.  Barring Jason Day—who is still nursing his bad back—this week we have the FedExCup champion (Rory McIlroy), last season’s four major winners (Danny Willett, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Jimmy Walker), Team USA’s unofficial leader during the Ryder Cup (Patrick Reed), and a raft of former major champions in Adam Scott, Martin Kaymer and Bubba Watson.

Possible future major winners such as Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia have also decided to stay in the Far East and battle for WGC honors this week.

In total, sixteen of the world’s top 20, eighteen of the combined Ryder Cup teams and some of Asia’s brightest young talents join forces to create a fascinating field.

This Week’s Course Preview

The WGC HSBC Champions will be hosted by the Sheshan International Club in Shanghai, China, and like at the CIMB Classic last week low scores are expected.

Of the last five winners here only one (Bubba Watson in 2014) has failed to score -20 or lower, and that was because the rough was left deliberately up that year.  Dustin Johnson’s -24 in 2013 highlights the opportunities on offer, as does the joint 18-hole record of 62 shared by Martin Kaymer and Danny Willett.  With rain expected to soften greens on Thursday, could we see a sub-60 round?

Measuring in at 7,261 yards for its Par 72, Sheshan was designed by the Nelson & Haworth team and features Seashore Paspalum fairways of average width.  The bentgrass greens will run at 11 on the stimp this week (weather permitting) and their undulating nature shows why GIR and short stick excellence are key this week (more on that later).

Changes have been made in the past few years to try and stiffen the test, with trees and bunkers added and the Par 5s lengthened, however those alterations have yet to hit their mark with four of the last five winning scores ranging from -20 to -24.

Expect another birdie fest out east this week!

Weather Forecast for Shanghai, China

Much like the CIMB Classic in Malaysia last week, the build-up to the start of the tournament looks set to be dogged by rain.  There’s a 100% chance of rain on Wednesday (you can’t get much more certain than that!), and heavy downpours are expected throughout the day; raising the chances of a delayed start on Thursday.

Showers are expected on Thursday, principally between 9am and 12pm (79% chance of rain), but things are expected to pick up through the weekend in time for Sunday’s finale, where sunshine and a top temperature of 63˚F are anticipated.

Last Year’s Results from the WGC-HSBC Champions

In 2015 it was Russell Knox that entered the winner’s circle for the first time as a PGA TOUR pro after an outstanding -20 saw him prevail by two shots over Kevin Kisner.

The Scot ranked T1 for Birdies Made, T5 for Driving Accuracy (73% of fairways found), T3 for GIR and 6th for Putts per GIR—can performances get much more consistent than that?  No stats were published for Driving Distance but a longest drive of 281 yards from Knox suggests a more meticulous approach will be of benefit to the players this week.

It is going to take something extraordinary to win this tournament, and that is why it is shaping up to be a fantastic spectacle.

The victory was all the more remarkable for Knox as he was only on the alternates list just seven days prior to the first tee, but after scrambling to secure his Visa to travel he made all the effort worthwhile in a sterling performance.

A weather delay could have scuppered the Scot, but he kept his cool on an extended Sunday session to take his lead at the 54-hole mark through to the clubhouse.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_A2Mn-OPto[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

  • Television Broadcasts
    • Wednesday-Saturday, 11 p.m.-4 a.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Mobile Broadcasts:
    •  None
  • RADIO:
    • None

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-HSBC Champions this Week

Attention once again turns to DraftKings for what is a split slate this week, with this event taking prominence over the slightly B-rated Sanderson Farms Championship, and at the time of this writing already a busy raft of contests where live.

  • PGA $100K Birdie: With such an exciting field this week, it is this big boy that takes pride of place in DraftKings’ slate where just shy of 40,000 players will duke it out for the $100 prize pool, and all for just a $3 buy-in.
  • Casual PGA $10K Par 5: A total prize pool of $10,000 is up for grabs here, with the winner of the 2352 player contest pocketing a cool $500.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-HSBC Champions

Russell Knox’s win here in 2015 was the first of his career, and came as he sat a then lowly 85th in the world.  In hindsight we can see that ranking was a bit of an aberration, and this event has required tried-and-tested winners to get over the line, with nine of the last eleven champions all ranking inside the world’s top 30 at the time of their victory.

Scheduling at this early juncture of the PGA TOUR season can often be a factor, and we note that last year Knox had played the CIMB Classic in Malaysia the week before, as did the runner-up in China, Kevin Kisner.  But that doesn’t necessarily have to be the way to play things: five of the first eight players home in this event last year hadn’t played the CIMB in the week prior.

Knox enjoyed a fantastic week in the Far East, cracking the code of his maiden win by ranking in the top ten for four obviously key metrics (Driving Accuracy, GIR, Putts Per GIR, and Birdies Made).  Look at the roll call of former winners here too; Bubba, DJ, Ian Poulter, Martin Kaymer et al.  Needless to say, it’s going to take something very special to get over the line in this stacked field.

A lack of form from Knox (MC-38-21) and Kisner’s (25-37) perspectives heading into the tournament suggests that Sheshan is a place you can find your feet quickly, and that is backed up by the fact that neither had played this stretch before in their careers.  This is a course that accepts newbies and experienced heads alike!

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)

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[counter num_start=”0″ num_end=”978048″ num_speed=”5000″ num_prefix=”$” text_above=”Season Earnings” text_below=”$489,024 average”]
[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”28.60%” bar_text=”4 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”42.90%” bar_text=”6 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 2 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 2 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”78.60″ bar_text=”11 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the WGC-HSBC Champions with other Premium Members.


Cover Photo via Instagram

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