Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Preview
The opening couplet of Rudyard Kipling’s timeless poem ‘If’ reads ‘If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs….’, before continuing with ‘If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you….’, and that piece of writing is absolutely on the money when it comes to discussing Gary Woodland’s emotional win at the Phoenix Open on Sunday.
Woodland wasn’t even in the frame after 54-holes: the top of the leaderboard was crammed with proven champions in Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Xander Schauffele and even the likes of Daniel Berger and Xander Schauffele.
But as Mr Kipling so wisely wrote, there is an advantage to being able to keep your head while those around you start to lose the plot, and that’s exactly what Woodland was able to do.
Gary Woodland poses with the trophy after winning the Waste…
Gary Woodland poses with the trophy after winning the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 4, 2018 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
His closing round of 65 featured a final four-hole run of -3, and that was enough to hand him the clubhouse lead at -18 as all around him fumbled.
All, that is, apart from Chez Reavie.
Despite a rush of adrenaline on sixteen with a baying crowd watching on, the diminutive Reavie birdied the final two holes to force a playoff with Woodland in front of a gallery of thousands.
And it was Woodland who held his nerve: a par four at the first extra hole enough to secure an emotional victory. The 33-year-old has had to overcome the devastating death of his unborn daughter last year to get to this point, and his look to the heavens when the winning putt sunk was confirmation that she was never far from his mind.
‘If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you.’ You could forgive Woodland for not believing in himself after going five years on Tour without a win, but hard work with coaches Butch Harmon and Brad Faxon, after a 2017 campaign that was tough for obvious reasons, has paid dividends. The fact he and Reavie ranked second and third for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green – behind our headline pick Hideki Matsuyama, who was going so well before having to withdraw with a wrist injury – speaks volumes.
After a one-week sojourn Arizona it’s back to complete business on the Californian Swing this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach. Played out at a trio of coastal, windy, Links-style courses, this is a Pro-Am event where minutes and occasionally hours are lost to amateurs trying to find their ball in the undergrowth: a slightly different visual aesthetic to the raucous TPC Scottsdale this week!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Waste Management Open
Hideki Matsuyama’s unexpected early WD (due to injury) hurt the top of our lineups last week, but the real star was our Tuesday Sleeper Report pick in Gary Woodland who beat out a strong field (and long odds) to take home an emotional victory.
In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say last week about Woodland heading into the WMPO:
Gary Woodland – Vegas Odds 50/1 – The T12 finish of Gary Woodland at Torrey Pines will have largely gone unnoticed due to the thrilling finish, but shrewd gamers will have noted that all aspects of his game were in fine fettle.
Typically an outstanding tee-to-green player, the 33-year-old also ranked seventh for Strokes Gained: Putting, and for guys like Woodland that is usually an indicator that more good form is to follow.
The two-time PGA TOUR winner finished T7 on his previous start at the Sony Open, so the upward trend is obvious for a player that has gone six-for-eight at Scottsdale with one top-five finish.
Hopefully you heeded our advice and mixed Woodland into your rosters last week to because Gary came in strong with plenty of DFS points from the bottom of the lineup.
2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field
The top three players in world golf will duke it out at Pebble Beach, and they will be joined by two other members of the OWGR top 10.
The rejuvenated pairing of Rory McIlroy and Jason Day catches the eye. After struggling with a rib injury last season, McIlroy looked to be somewhere back to his best in finishing 2-3 on the European Tour’s Desert Swing a couple of weeks ago, while Day returned to the winner’s circle at the Farmers Insurance Open in January.
They will be joined by a notable cast that features two-time Pebble Beach champions Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez, Paul Casey and many more intriguing propositions.
Phil Mickelson watches his tee shot on the third hole during the…
Phil Mickelson watches his tee shot on the third hole during the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 4, 2018 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
As ever, the action will unfold over three courses. The iconic Pebble Beach is our host, and they will take the honors for one of the opening trio of rounds on the rotation, as well as being the scene for the coronation of the champion on Sunday. Spyglass Hill and Monterey Shore make up the trio.
They all share some things in common. The coastal, Californian location ensures that the weather can play a factor (more on that later), with the wind in particular an occasional nuisance, and all three tracks are said to be Links-style in nature. All feature Poa Annua greens, too.
Pebble Beach has hosted five editions of the US Open plus a PGA Championship, and that should give some indication of its complexity. Measuring 6,816 yards for its Par 72, this is one of the shortest layouts on the PGA TOUR, and with fairly wide fairways you might be thinking how is this a major championship course?
Well, the answer lies in the tiny Poa Annua greens, which really do take some hitting. Factor in the wind and you have a recipe for a tough old test: Graeme McDowell won the 2010 US Open here in level par, while Tiger Woods’ absurd winning mark of -12 in 2000 is made all the more remarkable by noting that Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez, in T2, finished on +3!
The players will be looking to make hay at the other two courses then, with Monterey typically playing the easiest of the bunch. At 6,958 yards for its Par 71 no player is discounted in terms of length, and the greens are twice the size of those at Pebble Beach. Despite its Par 71 billing, Monterey features four Par 5s with a trio of those coming on the back nine.
Spyglass can play pretty tough on any given day, but because it is largely tree-lined it boasts a huge advantage: the course is less exposed to the elements than the other two. And so while the Par 72, 6,858 yard layout is a stern test of ball-striking, it can actually serve up a draw bias to those who play here on the windiest of days.
Spyglass Hill has been called the ‘best course never to have hosted a major’, and it was here that Bing Crosby famously bet Jack Nicklaus that he couldn’t break par during his National Pro-Am event. The Golden Bear fired a round of 70 (-2) to win the tournament and nab a crisp $5 note from the White Christmas crooner!
The 18th fairway and 18th green seen from the tee box during the 2nd…
The 18th fairway and 18th green seen from the tee box during the 2nd round of the Champions Tour Pure Insurance Championship on September 23, 2017 in Pebble Beach, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Carmel, CA
The early weather forecast suggests that Saturday will be the windiest day on the West Coast, with gusts of 13 mph (probably stronger at local level) buffeting the players.
These could be famous last words but the wind actually looks fairly benign by Pebble Beach standards on Thursday and Friday at 8 mph, although keep your eyes locked to the forecast as this could quite easily change.
And to Sunday….well, this could be interesting. Gusts of up to 20 mph are predicted, and with those who make the cut tackling the difficult (and exposed) Pebble Beach, we could see a rather volatile leaderboard heading up the final straight!
Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The 2017 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach was very much the Jordan Spieth show. He was T2 after a tough opening round that saw him shoot 68 at Monterey, but from there he did not look back: a pair of 65s saw him hold a commanding six-shot lead over Brandt Snedeker at the 54-hole mark.
Spieth closed out with a 70 at Pebble Beach to win by four shots from Kelly Kraft and five from Dustin Johnson.
Snedeker would go on to finish solo fourth, while Gary Woodland, Jon Rahm and Jason Day were all tied up in fifth.
Notable rounds of the week came from Spieth, who fired 65s at Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach on Friday/Saturday to set up his win, with Day taking the top honours with 64 at Spyglass. Kraft played his 36 holes at Pebble Beach in -11, with DJ not far behind at -10.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvDHzTFNAoQ[/embedyt]
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this Week
The daily fantasy sites are throwing some money at this week’s slate: adding to the already rabid anticipation of what should be a high-quality event. There’s decent sums to be won by those on low and big budgets alike!
- PGA $500k Drive the Green: Fancy trousering a $100k top prize? Then get stuck into this contest that guarantees a huge payout for just a $4 entry. The first 150 home will pocket a minimum of $100.
- PGA $267 Winner Takes All: When there’s a high degree of variance, what with potential draw biases across the three courses, it pays for well-informed gamers to get stuck into single entry contests: get more bang for your buck in this four-team game that pays a cool $1k to the winner.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Not for the first time in his young career, Jordan Spieth was indebted to his ridiculous putting stroke in adding yet another trophy to his collection.
Solid from tee-to-green but by no means spectacular, Spieth gained +2.13 strokes on the field with his flat stick, and that ability to break par – particularly during the middle 36 holes, where he went -14 through Pebble Beach and Spyglass – was the defining factor of his victory.
But that isn’t the only trick to taming Pebble Beach. Kelly Kraft was on fire with his irons, ranking first for SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach, in a performance that he hasn’t matched since. At Pebble Beach in particular laser-like precision is required on approach, so Kraft’s solo second should come as no surprise to anyone.
The fact that Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Kevin Kisner finished inside the top-10 and also ranked among the best of the week from tee-to-green should add further fuel to the flames.
Indeed, if we park Kraft to one side for the time being, the first six players home were Spieth, DJ, Snedeker, Woodland, Day and Rahm, so the conclusion we can make is that the cream will rise to the top at Pebble Beach – this isn’t a birdie-fest event where any old Tom, Dick or Harry ca get hot with the putter and win.
As for other correlations to consider, clearly good putting on Poa Annua (typically found on Californian courses) is key, as is a penchant for playing well in windy, coastal locations (think RSM Classic, RBC Heritage etc).
We’re also willing to suggest that decent finishes in Pro-Am events are well worth looking up. This is a unique format of golf that perhaps takes an outgoing personality type to thrive in, especially if paired with an amateur who is shanking their ball to all parts. That said, Jon Rahm won the CareerBuilder Challenge, and we wouldn’t necessarily be categorizing him as the jovial, good-natured type out on the course!
One final link that appears, on the face of it, to be wholly circumstantial, and yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest there is a correlation between Pebble Beach and the Golf Club of Houston, the host for the Houston Open. The likes of Phil Mickelson and D.A Points have won both events, while a lengthy list that includes Spieth, J.B Holmes, Vaughn Taylor, Chris Kirk, Vijay Singh and Hunter Mahan have finished either first or second in both.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 6/1, FPPG: 104.8, GPFP: 133.03 Salary: $11,700)
The AT&T Pebble Beach is an event where the big boys tend to have their wicked way with the rest of the field; or at least it was last year when six of the first seven players home were all multiple-time PGA TOUR winners.
That is probably due to the complexity of the courses involved – certainly Pebble Beach and Spyglass anyway – and also the inclement weather, so drafting some classy types is the way to go this week.
We have reservations about defending champion Jordan Spieth, who has hinted at changing the mechanics of his putting stroke – a work in progress, and Rory McIlroy, who was impressive in the Middle East but who is making his first start on US soil for quite some time. Jason Day will surely have been off celebrating a long-awaited win at Torrey Pines.
And, controversially, Jon Rahm’s mental fragility is a concern to us. That might sound ridiculous given all he has achieved in his young career, and the manner in which he broke down on the Sunday at the Farmers Insurance Open – where the enormity of defending a title, winning two weeks in a row and going to world number one suddenly dawned on him – is forgivable, the Spaniard showed his vulnerability again on Sunday at Scottsdale.
Rahm pierced the second fairway with a perfect drive, but his ball would end up unluckily in a divot. “That’s just a sign that things are not going to go good,” he said with a shrug. He would go on to card a 72, and become only of only three of the first 20 players home to shoot over par on Sunday.
One player whose psychology we don’t need to worry about is Dustin Johnson, the world number one whose formline worldwide reads 9-1-14-2-1-17.
His record at Pebble Beach is spectacular. He won here back-to-back in 2009-10, and then in the US Open of 2010 he led by three shots heading into the final 18 holes. DJ would throw that tournament away in spectacular fashion, but would secure redemption six years later in the battle of Oakmont.
Johnson has recorded four top-five finishes in his last six trips to the Pebble Beach resort, and the fact he hasn’t missed a tournament here since 2008 confirms how much he enjoys the area.
You wouldn’t necessarily think that the Pro-Am format would suit an elite-level player with such laser-focus and intensity, but DJ seems to shrug that side of it off and simply concentrate on his golf; a handy habit indeed. He is by far and away the most likely winner this week, and there really cannot be any other top-tier pick but him.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 2nd
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 8th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Matt Kuchar (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 74.1, GPFP: 63.92 Salary: $8,800)
By the time you read this, Matt Kuchar will have become a viral internet sensation for calling himself a ‘dickhead’ when striking an errant drive on the seventeenth at Scottsdale.
You can forgive him that moment of profanity though: you can imagine that, nice a guy as he is, that’s as salty as the language gets when Kooch is around. He had, after all, nearly aced the sixteenth hole; one of the most manic and raucous golf holes anywhere on the planet.
In the end he settled for a share of fifth place and a job well done.
The Pebble Beach resort offers a unique test, and it was telling that Kuchar hadn’t played here for seven years when missing the cut 12 months ago. But we’re not too despondent: between 2007-2010, the 39-year-old produced a formline here that read 6-WD-14-34-6.
Woodland’s victory last week ignited a sense that even the grand old-stagers of the PGA TOUR can get over the line given the right circumstances, and while nobody is going to be calling Kuchar prolific his last win actually came after Woodland’s.
Maybe, just maybe, lightning will strike twice.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 9th
- SG: Approach – 33rd
- Approaches from 50-125 Yards – 34th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
J.B Holmes (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 59.5, GPFP: 67.41 Salary: $7,400)
After his slow play and on-course ‘chirping’ drew criticism at the Farmers Insurance Open, it’s perhaps no surprise that J.B Holmes missed the cut at Scottsdale last week. It’s quite probable that the voluble crowd in Arizona didn’t let him forget about his antics seven days prior.
But it’s worth recapping that performance at Torrey Pines, where he finished T4 and ranked first for Strokes Gained: Putting on the slick Poa Annua of the South Course.
The Ryder Cupper routinely plays well at Pebble Beach too. Second in 2010, he has recorded five top-20s in total, and last year despite finishing T23 he ranked third and fourth for Strokes Gained on approach and from tee-to-green respectively.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 7th
- SG: Total – 35th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 46th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chris Kirk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 65.6, GPFP: 66.42 Salary: $7,100)
After a tough 2017, Chris Kirk’s game is certainly heading in the right direction.
A formline of 11-35-MC-10-4 certainly hints at a return to the heady days which saw Kirk land four PGA TOUR titles, and while his last came as long ago as 2014 lest we forget how Gary Woodland and Chez Reavie turned back the clock at Scottsdale last week. These quality campaigners can get the job done when in the mix.
Hat we particularly liked about that T11 from Kirk at the Phoenix Open was his ball-striking: the 32-year-old ranked fifth and seventh for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Approach respectively, and when the irons are dialed in you know you are going to get a decent showing from the Georgia man.
A second-place finish at Pebble Beach in 2013 offers a tantalizing glimpse of what could be for Kirk backers this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 15th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 25th
- SG: Total – 39th
Low-Tier Pick:
Jason Kokrak (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 73.7,GPFP: 91.92 Salary: $6,900)
When he gets on the right side of the draw Kokrak tends to play well at Pebble Beach, with four top-30s in six starts highlighted by T9 in 2012.
The 32-year-old has made a busy start to the 2017/18 season, featuring in eight events and recording a pair of top-10s and four top-25s into the bargain. The pick of the bunch has perhaps been T8 at the CareerBuilder Challenge: another California-based Pro-Am event.
Kokrak has played well on windy days (T6 at the RBC Heritage in 2016, T11 at the Texas Open in 2015) and at hard courses (T7 at the Northern Trust, T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational), and with form in hand there’s no reason why he can’t go well again this week.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 17th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 47th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 50th
Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Russell Knox (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 60.79 Salary: $6,700)
When the wind is up, Russell Knox is the man to take advantage.
Top-10s this season at the OHL Classic and the Sony Open followed a T11 last term at the RBC Heritage (plus T2 a year before), and that confirms the Scot’s abilities at coastal layouts.
A sorry 2017 has already been improved upon this year, with those top-10s listed above preceding T29 finishes at the Farmers and CareerBuilder Challenge. Knox may have missed the cut at the Phoenix Open last time out, but he did so at level par and with a second round score of 68.
A two-time winner on the PGA TOUR, Knox will prove to be a value play for those seeking a bargain pick who will surely make the cut.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 14th
- Greens in Regulation – 21st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 32nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Russell Henley (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.6, GPFP: 41.36 Salary: $6,600)
Russell Henley is priced the same as David Duval this week….let that sink in!
We mentioned the Houston Open as a potential correlating course, and Henley took the spoils there in April last year. The fact he also won a blustery Sony Open in 2013 is also a nice indicator.
Henley heads to Pebble Beach on the back of two missed cuts and a mixed record at this stretch, but a best of T16 in 2010 suggests a certain suitability.
The 28-year-old’s missed cuts have come at -1 and level par respectively, so he clearly isn’t stinking the place out, and there is enough goodwill in the bank collated from T11 at The Masters and T3 at the TOUR Championship last season to suggest Henley is haplessly under-priced here.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy: 20th
- SG: Approach: 46th
- Greens in Regulation: 65th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineups
With DJ
Without DJ
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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