Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
2017 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Fantasy Preview
Well, that was a week that a number of PGA TOUR pros won’t forget in a hurry!
Dustin Johnson entered the record books at the WGC-HSBC Champions event in China – but not for reasons he will be particularly pleased with. DJ was hoping to become the first player to win three WGC tournaments in a single year, and instead he tied the record for losing the largest lead in the final round of a PGA TOUR event: a whopping six shots.
Taking advantage of Johnson’s inability to cope with the strong winds was Justin Rose, who entered the final 18 some eight shots adrift of the world number one. But a back nine played at -5, while all around him others lost their minds, handed the Englishman his eighth PGA TOUR title and his first since claiming the gold medal at the Rio Olympics of 2016.
Back on US soil there were more surprises in store as Ryan Armour, the 41-year-old journeyman, took the spoils at the Sanderson Farms Championship with a sublime display of ball-striking. This was Armour’s 105th PGA TOUR start in a decade of intermittent appearances, and just his second victory in more than 300 professional outings.
At sportsbook odds of 100/1, you’d have been laughing all the way to the bank if you spotted his unearthed potential!
We’re surely not the only ones happy to see the Asian swing of the PGA TOUR’s wraparound season come to an end: the conditions, the unfamiliarity and the undeniable curious as to the players’ levels of motivation all combine to make this particular set of events rather difficult to predict.
So it’s good to be back to normal this week with the sole PGA TOUR event, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, on American soil at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Bubba Watson of the United States plays his shot from the 14th tee…
Bubba Watson of the United States plays his shot from the 14th tee during round two of the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston on September 2, 2017 in Norton, Massachusetts. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the WGC-HSBC Champions
In the end it was Justin Rose who walked away with the most fantasy points last week and unfortunately we didn’t have him as our horse pick.
The bright spit last week was our Tuesday Fantasy Sleeper Report which yielded four Top 25 finishes out of our five picks including Peter Uihlein and Cabrera-Bello who finished T5.
Justin Rose of England celebrates with the Old Tom Morris Cup after…
Justin Rose of England celebrates with the Old Tom Morris Cup after finishing 14 under to win the WGC – HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 29, 2017 in Shanghai, China. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
2017 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Field
After a grueling few weeks in Asia, it’s no surprise to see that the PGA TOUR’s big guns are taking a week off to recover from the jet lag and to stop the winds from whistling in their ears after a breezy few weeks on the sub-continent.
But a decent field has assembled nonetheless, and it is one headlined by Presidents Cup picks Charley Hoffman and Kevin Chappell, Ryder Cup ace Ryan Moore, former PGA Championship winner Jimmy Walker, and a couple of sublime ball-strikers in Tony Finau and Webb Simpson.
Former Shriners champions such as Kevin Na, Martin Laird, and Smylie Kaufman will also tee it up, as will last year’s surprise winner Rod Pampling.
Patrick Cantlay, Byeong Hun-An, and Anirbhan Lahiri will be making their first trips to TPC Summerlin, as will Web.com Tour graduates Ben Silverman, Austin Cook, and Rob Oppenheim after decent showings in the Sanderson Farms.
Kevin Chappell of the U.S. Team reacts on the third green after going…
Kevin Chappell of the U.S. Team reacts on the third green after going two up against Marc Leishman of Australia and the International Team during Sunday singles matches of the Presidents Cup at… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
With six of the last seven Shriners champions lifting the trophy with a score of -20 or better to their name, it’s fair to say that TPC Summerlin is a course that can be tamed with consummate ease.
That’s not to say it’s an out-and-out birdie-fest: fairways are wide, yes, and greens fairly receptive, but as we will discuss in more detail later in this preview quality ball-striking is still a necessity.
Summerlin measures 7,232 yards for its Par 71, and its key defense mechanism is that it sits at roughly 2,600 ft above sea level – making club selection and length management an important asset to any winner.
Designed by Bobby Weed – who also crafted TPC Las Vegas just up the road, the fairways and rough are Bermuda while the greens are Bentgrass; a key distinction when shortlisting candidates this week.
Summerlin opens with four consecutive Par 4s: the first pair played well under par last year, although the third is rather more challenging as it plays uphill and generally into a prevailing wind. The fourth saw 16% birdies and 13% bogeys in 2016, so it’s a hole that offers both risk and reward.
The fifth is a tough Par 3 with a sloping green from top right to bottom left – approaching to the right quadrant is essential here. The sixth is a scoreable Par 4 that typically takes an iron off the tee and a longer approach, while the seventh is another Par 4 that played below par in 2016 despite its sloping green.
The eighth is a beastly 230-yard Par 3 that is protected by four bunkers front and left, while the front nine closes with a Par 5 that offers eagle opportunities (although none were made here in 2016) for the longer hitters. A birdie-to-bogey ratio of 48%-6% speaks volumes!
The back nine opens with a Par 4 that played a touch over par last year, with its dogleg right and green that gently fades into a watery run-off area. The eleventh is tough too, with its dogleg left and deep-set bunkering, with 25% of all attempts ending in bogey or worse in 2016.
A lake running along the right-hand side makes the Par 4 twelfth tricky, especially when pins are placed back right, while the thirteenth is a Par 5 that rewards precision rather than brutality.
Fourteen is a scoreable Par 3 at just 168 yards with an undulating green its best protection, while fifteen is an absolute doozy: at just 341 yards, this Par 4 can be driven by the big boys ad there were as many birdies here as pars last year (47%).
There is ample opportunity to go low on the Par 5 sixteenth too, with a decent tee shot setting up a comfortable approach to the green in two, and the players will need to keep their composure at the Par 3 seventeenth: this narrow green is flanked by a lake front and left.
Summerlin closes with a tameable Par 4 at 444 yards that requires a precision approach shot to a well-protected green. Play it safe or risk closer proximity – that is the question awaiting the field this week!
Morgan Hoffmann plays his approach shot on the third hole during the…
Morgan Hoffmann plays his approach shot on the third hole during the third round of the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open on October 24, 2015 at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Las Vegas, Nevada
After the unpredictability of the weather on the Asian swing, the players at least have a good idea of how conditions will play in Las Vegas this week.
It’s warm (temperatures will be roughly 70 to 75 degrees throughout), with glorious sunshine and occasional clouds popping up.
Thursday could be an interesting day for the players if the early forecast is accurate. At 10 am it will be 60 degrees or so with wind speeds of 8 mph. Fast forward to 2 pm as the late starters are getting going and the mercury is up to a sticky 77 degrees with the breeze is registering at 15 mph.
That’s not to suggest the AM/PM side of the draw will have an advantage though, as a similar theme plays out on Friday, while on Saturday winds could reach a rather gusty 19 mph.
The same formula plays out on Sunday, with strong winds, dry humidity and warm temperatures creating the archetypal Las Vegas conditions.
Last Year’s Results from the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
It’s apparent that an absurd round of golf, either at the start or end of your outing at Summerlin, makes all the difference.
In 2015, Smylie Kaufman closed with a -10 effort to win from well off the place – indeed, in-running punters were offered an eye-popping 1000/1 on the young gun to win!
Last year, Rod Pampling followed a similar strategy but with his opening round: an outrageous return of -11 giving him an early and ultimately unassailable lead; even though Brooks Koepka tried his best with an opening effort of 62.
From there Pampling was solid, rather than spectacular. His middle rounds were played out in 68-71, which is fairly ordinary by all accounts, but a closing 65 got him over the line to give the veteran Australian his third PGA TOUR title and his first in more than a decade by two shots from Koepka and three from Lucas Glover.
Low scores really are the order of the day at Summerlin. Francesco Molinari started the final round outside of the top 20, but an outstanding 61 on the Sunday propelled him up to T4!
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZBaLz0zgLE[/embedyt]
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open this Week
There is just one PGA TOUR event for the DFS sites to focus on this week, and so there has been a conscious doubling of effort put into the slate of contests.
There are some excellent opportunities for budget players and high rollers this week, so let’s take a look at the pick of the bunch:
- PGA $60k Fore: For just $4 entry, players have a chance to fight for the $5k top prize in a fairer environment: this is a 20-entry max per person contest.
- PGA $8k Albatross: For a fractionally larger investment ($12), gamers can battle it out for the $1k top prize in a 784-team contest, with the first 20% of players home doubling their money.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
It perhaps speaks volumes of the TPC Summerlin test that making birdies at the right time is key.
There are just three Par 5s on this Par 71 layout, and Pampling played those in -8: that’s -8 of just 12 holes in total, of course. The Aussie also went through the Par 4s in -13, which means he played the Par 3s in +1! Unusual for a champion at the -20 mark.
So a birdie maker who avoids bogeys on the Par 3s is the obvious profile of our chosen players this week.
Some will have you believe that Summerlin is a putters’ paradise too, but the stats from the 2016 edition of Shriners just don’t bear that out. Pampling ranked 1st for SG: Tee to Green and 2nd for SG: Approach, but was way down the pecking order for SG: Putting and even further down for SG: Off the Tee.
Take a look at that leaderboard from last season: Pampling, Koepka, Glover, Molinari, Ogilvy, Bradley, Stanley, and O’Hair all inside the top-10. That bears all the hallmarks of an approach play shootout to us.
Perhaps that’s because the greens are so firm, so quality iron striking is the key in gaining close proximity to the flag. The fairways are generously proportioned, so all should have decent angles in to the green, and it really is just a case of dialing in those short irons and wedges.
Pampling’s form heading into the Shriners last year hardly caught the eye. He missed the cut at the Safeway Open and finished just T42 at Sanderson Farms, but crucially his approach play was very good in Mississippi and arguably that set the tone for his victory in Las Vegas just a week later.
Lucas Glover, who was third here 12 months ago, was equally brilliant on approach at Sanderson Farms in 2016, so perhaps that is another angle to be explored.
As far as course correlations are concerned, the most obvious one that springs to mind is Mayakoba – the home of the OHL Classic – with its windy conditions and sort of dry humidity.
And perhaps we can take an interest in Nine Bridges, home of the very first CJ Cup just a couple of weeks ago. That is a short course played at altitude and with Bentgrass greens, and while South Korea and Las Vegas are thousands of miles apart it is noticeable that Perez, Glover, Smith, and List would finish inside the top-20 of both events some eleven months apart.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 66.5, GPFP: 73.84 Salary: $11,000)
There were three occasions in the main 2017 season on which Webb Simpson could have ended his four-year wait for a fifth PGA TOUR title. The playoff defeat to Hideki Matsuyama at the Phoenix Open is the most obvious one, but also at the Dean & Deluca and the Wyndham Championship he let good opportunities pass him by to end that trophy drought.
But the good news is that he is getting in the mix for honors, and a decent run of form stretching for four or five months suggests that the former US Open champion is back at the top of his game.
The way he ended the FedExCup – T9 at the BMW Championship, T13 at the TOUR Championship – was eye catching, and particularly was his approach play, which looks to be back to its sublime best: he ranked first for SG: Approach at the latter – a handy insight ahead of this Summerlin test.
He played at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago and might be slightly disappointed to only finish T17, but that tournament is notoriously something of a putting contest, which has never been Simpson’s strong point.
Instead, he will look to approach close and use the receptive Bentgrass greens to accept his spin and manoeuvre the ball closer to the pin. That way, his (lack of) putting skills won’t be so much of a problem!
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 6th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 21st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 24th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Ryan Moore (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 54.5, GPFP: 46.33 Salary: $9,400)
It is wise to get one or more of the Las Vegas boys on side this week. Ryan Moore and Kevin Na, both Nevada natives, have won here, while the likes of Scott Piercy, Chad Campbell and Alex Cejka have pieced together consecutive strong showings at Summerlin.
Another LV resident to consider is Charley Hoffman, although his formline at this course is rather schizophrenic: six missed cuts and four top-20s….the epitome of boom and bust!
The Hoff has pledged on Twitter to donate all of his winnings this week to the families of the victims of the Las Vegas shootings, and you would think that that would provide all the motivation he needs to deliver one of his ‘boom’ rather than ‘bust’ performances.
But, the question marks are enough to dissuade us from a potentially expensive mistake from a DFS perspective….
So instead we’re going in with Ryan Moore, who is something of a TPC Summerlin specialist. His last seven trips have yielded four top-25 finishes, including a pair of tp-10s and of course the title win here in 2012. With just two cuts missed in eleven starts at a venue where the wind blows liberally, we can surmise that Moore is comfortable in all conditions here.
T13 at the PGA Championship, it was a mixed end to the campaign for Moore but top-20s at the Tour Championship and Safeway Open suggest he is playing well enough to contend at a course he loves this week.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 125-150 Yards – 15th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 20th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 34th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Luke List (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 58.7, GPFP: 48.15 Salary: $8,300)
It’s been a great start to the wraparound season for List, who has improved from T37 at the Safeway Open to T5 at the CJ Cup (with T13 at the CIMB Classic sandwiched in-between).
There’s every chance that 2018 will be the year that he breaks through to the big time; his stats are simply too good for him not to break through into the winners’ circle.
He seems to particularly enjoy the wraparound season – he went 26-2-15-7 in 2016, and he’s been playing well since finishing T20 at the BMW Championship, so there is scope for improvement.
When you combine List’s driving accuracy stat (157th) and Greens in Regulation (14th), you get a sense of just how good he is with iron in hand – whether from the rough or on the rare occasion he’s on the fairway. His SG: Approach ranking of 27th is mouth-watering stuff this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
- Greens in Regulation – 14th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 27th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Nick Taylor (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 56.1, GPFP: 59.46 Salary: $7,600)
Nick Taylor has started the season very nicely, with three consecutive top-25s at the Safeway Open (T9), CIMB Classic (T13), and the CJ Cup (T23). He didn’t play in the WGC-HSBC Champions, which means he has had plenty of time to readjust to life Stateside.
He’s played particularly well from tee-to-green, ranking T28 for that Strokes Gained metric, and so that suggests his current form is sustainable and not inflated by some here today, gone tomorrow putting stats.
Taylor is a former winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship, which suggests he is a big fan of the wraparound season. Let’s see if he can keep that run going this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 66th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 18th
- Greens in Regulation – 79th
Low-Tier Pick:
Ben Silverman (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 76.0, GPFP: 60.80 Salary: $7,000)
One of the most eye-catching performances at the Sanderson Farms last week was Ben Silverman, who finished T7 and ranked sixth for both SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green.
The Florida native claimed the first title of his career in August on the Web.com Tour, and recorded a pair of further top-fives in West Coast events in Utah and Oregon.
All in all, that’s six top-25 finishes in his last nine starts, and only one weekend missed. Silverman could be among the cream of the Web.com class of 2017.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 12th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 26th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Scott Piercy (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 44.2, GPFP: 35.33 Salary: $7,400)
Born and raised in Las Vegas, Scott Piercy had a 2017 to forget. Beset by injuries and loss of form, he missed six of his last eight cuts and recorded just two top-25 finishes.
But he’s had plenty of recovery time since the end of the campaign, and eased back into form with a T17 return at the Safeway Open.
Piercy is another of the Vegas crew that tends to deliver at Summerlin: 9/11 cuts made, 6/11 resulting in top-25 finishes, 3/11 ending in a top-10. The three-time PGA TOUR winner looks a value price, even considering his lack of recent form.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 9th
- SG: Approach – 57th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 77th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Billy Hurley (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 48.5, GPFP: 38.78 Salary: $6,600)
At last year’s Shriners Open Billy Hurley III played the final 36 holes in -12; nobody went around lower.
So we were happy to see that he’d found a bit of touch last week at the Sanderson Farms. He finished T25 but ranked eleventh for SG: Approach and fourth for SG: Tee to Green, and a switch from Bermuda to Bentgrass may just aid his putting stats.
After all, he won on the Bentgrass of TPC Potomac in 2016 at the Quicken Loans National, ad one of his three top-25 finishes last season came right here at Summerlin.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach: 28th
- SG: Putting: 29th
- Approaches from 125-150 Yards: 56th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineup
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
Did the PGA TOUR Just Make a Huge Mistake?
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
Did the PGA TOUR Just Make a Huge Mistake?
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
