Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The BMW Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the BMW Championship
2018 BMW Championship Fantasy Preview
He’s only gone and done it again, you know.
With protractor in hand and theories of gravity in mind, Bryson DeChambeau captured a second consecutive FedExCup title at the Dell Technologies Championship and confirmed his status as the number one seed right up until the TOUR Championship.
It’s enough to make you wish you’d listened harder in science class….
As well as securing his third trophy of the season, Bryson has also helped to highlight the absurdity of the FedExCup points system. He could win this week’s event, the BMW Championship, as well, and yet still not be crowned overall champion if he were not to win the TOUR Championship. It’s a truly bizarre set of circumstances….
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You would anticipate some kind of drop-off in DeChambeau’s form as the action heads to Newtown Square, near Philadelphia, as the BMW Championship kicks off at the Aronimink Golf Club on Thursday.
It’s make or break time for many involved, with only the top-30 progressing to the FedExCup curtain call at East Lake. Most of the top-70 who will line up this week can still mathematically book their place at the TOUR Championship, so there’s plenty at stake in this appetiser for the season finale in just two week’s time.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Bryson strikes again! Were you lucky to bet on him back-to-back weeks? If so, hats off to you. We simply didn’t see it DeChambeau going back-to-back against the best fields in the game, but obviously we were wrong this time around.
The good news however is that six of our seven main picks made the weekend and our star picks from our Sleeper Report were Cameron Smith (3rd) and Tyrell Hatton (T12) who each outperformed their odd/salaries quite handedly.
Cameron Smith of Australia greets his caddie during the final round…
Cameron Smith of Australia greets his caddie during the final round of the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston on September 3, 2018 in Norton, Massachusetts. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Now it’s time to be even more selective as the field drops to 70 this week.
The 2018 BMW Championship Field
The FedExCup standings have been reset following the Dell Technologies, and the field has been confirmed for the BMW Championship.
Ryan Moore, Whee Kim, Stewart Cink, Nick Watney and Jimmy Walker are the unlucky ones as they were ranked 71-75 at the close of play on Monday, while Matt Kuchar and Charley Hoffman have also exited the playoffs.
The likes of Keith Mitchell and Peter Uihlein cling on after a strong showing at TPC Boston, while Ted Potter Jr did just about enough to cling on to that all-important 70th spot.
Rickie Fowler of the United States plays a shot from a bunker on the…
Rickie Fowler of the United States plays a shot from a bunker on the sixth hole during the final round of the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive Country Club on August 12, 2018 in St Louis, Missouri. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
It is believed that all 70 will take to the tee at Aronimink, with Rickie Fowler returning from injury and Francesco Molinari, fresh from a week’s rest, ready to go to work.
This Week’s Course Preview
This week sees a rare trip to Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Philadelphia.
It’s been seven years since the PGA TOUR last stopped by, with the layout used as a temporary host of the AT&T National. Otherwise, it’s been a particularly sparse figure on the course rota, hosting the Senior PGA Championship in 2003 and little else since.
Aronimink will host the 2027 edition of the PGA Championship, too.
This is now said to be a classic Donald Ross stretch, with the original build from the Scot recently restored in an $4 million overhaul which saw trees removed, water hazards extended and greens and bunkers re-shaped to closer resemble Ross’ original vision.
At Par 70 and measuring 7,237 yards, the emphasis – as tends to be the case at Ross tracks – is on course management and strategy, with the correct approach angles essential if you are to avoid getting in a mess on these well protected greens.
A course scenic shot of the 17th hole during the final round of the…
A course scenic shot of the 17th hole during the final round of the AT&T National at Aronimink Golf Club on July 3, 2011 in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Ross is on record as saying he wanted Aronimink to be his masterpiece, with slopes, valleys and elevation changes a test of ‘patience and endurance.’
The opening hole – ‘Apache’ as it is known – plays down into a valley which then rises steeply on the other side of the fairway, with distance control imperative off the tee. The fourth (Seminole) is a long Par 4 with a small, well-guarded green, while the seventh (Shawnee) features a green sat up high with severe run-offs to all sides.
Fourteen, meanwhile, is called ‘Iroquois’, and this Par 3 is so long that the players may need to take 3-wood in if the wind is in their faces. Par here is certainly a good score.
The green of the Par 3 seventeenth (Seneca) is extremely well protected by sand and water, while the self-titled final hole – Aronimink – is tree-lined with a green featuring various plateaus and ledges.
Weather Forecast for Newtown Square, PA
We’re back on the normal Thursday-Sunday timeline this week, and the bad news is that the weather doesn’t look great.
The build-up isn’t too bad, with sunny spells and the occasional thunderstorm at temperatures of around 90 degrees.
Thursday should be pretty good too, with wind speeds of as low as 5 mph and the mercury settling around 86 degrees.
But then the rain comes on Friday, with temperatures dropping significantly and continued bouts of heavy rain expected.
Downpours are the theme of the weekend too, with the wind getting up to 11 mph on Sunday.
Last Year’s Results from The BMW Championship
Sometimes the anticipation of a thrilling golf tournament ahead can be extinguished in a matter of hours.
That’s exactly what happened when Marc Leishman opened up with rounds of 62-64 at Conway Farms to put one hand on the BMW Championship title prior to the weekend.
At that point he was three shots clear of Jason Day and Rickie Fowler in second and six ahead of the field, and while that duo wobbled on the Saturday the Aussie kept his composure to card a 68 and take a five-shot lead into Sunday.
A steady Eddie round of 67 saw Leishman take the spoils by five from Fowler and Justin Rose, with Day, Matt Kuchar and Jon Rahm rounding out the top-five.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The BMW Championship this Week
As we head into the third round of FedExCup playoffs, it’s evident that the ante is being raised by all concerned. Even the DFS sites are readying a slate of prestigious contests with some big money prizes on the line.
- PGA $500k Tee-to-Green: There’s a cool $100k top prize in this $6 entry event, and while it features a large field you only need to finish inside the top 12,440 teams to win at least $10. We can do that, right?
- PGA $400k Club Twirl: There’s another $100k jackpot here, and your chances of winning it re significantly greater given the 10k field size. Finish inside the top 20% to almost double your money at the very least.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The BMW Championship
Aronimink being a Donald Ross course, there is a premium on quality shot-makers this week.
Think about his East Lake layout, host of the TOUR Championship, where classy tee-to-green merchants like Schauffele, McIlroy, Spieth and Horschel have triumphed in recent times.
We can look to Oak Hill, host of the 2013 PGA Championship (and the 2019 edition for that matter), where Jason Dufner bested Jim Furyk. And then there’s Sedgefield, home to the Wyndham Championship, where Brandt Snedeker and Donald Ross specialist Henrik Stenson have scored in the past couple of years.
That has to be the key consideration this week: whose game is suited to these ‘pick and play’ layouts, where the emphasis is on brains over brawn?
There are other factors too, of course, with those showing good tee-to-green control at TPC Boston towards the head of our DFS shopping list.
And how can we forget the race for the top-30 in the FedExCup standings ahead of the money-spinning TOUR Championship?
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The BMW Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The BMW Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Rose (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 89.4, GPFP: 74.23 Salary: $11,200)
Like his old mate Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose is another who tends to enjoy life at Donald Ross tracks.
A winner at Aronimink way back in 2010, Rose also has a runners-up finish at East Lake to his credit.
The Englishman tends to favor shot maker’s courses over out-and-out birdie fests, and on the back of a strong showing at TPC Boston he will fancy the job once more.
Rose finished solo second in the Dell Technologies Championship, and with the golf coming thick and fast at the moment he will be looking to go one better in Philly.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
- Scoring Average – 2nd
- SG: Approach – 3rd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Brooks Koepka (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 83.0, GPFP: 106.24 Salary: $10,500)
It is evident from Koepka’s career resumé that he is the man for the big occasion.
Three of his title wins have been majors, and the aptitude he has shown for the grind – notably when taking down this year’s US Open – confirms his suitability for a typically challenging Donald Ross assignment.
He won the PGA Championship three starts ago, and in his last pair of outings he has ranked third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Brooks would love to win the FedExCup – that’s evident from his big event record – and his game is in great shape right now.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 4th
- Scrambling – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 14th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Henrik Stenson (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 72.2, GPFP: 66.43 Salary: $7,600)
Few play Donald Ross layouts quite like Stenson, and while his recent travails are clear for all to see the Swede is surely still worth a bet this week.
Injuries and ailments have hampered his progress, and while the finishing positions offer little to get excited about Stenson did rank fifth for Greens in Regulation at the Dell Technologies Championship, which should offer some encouragement.
A winner at Sedgefield, a runner-up at East Lake and a bronze medallist at Oak Hill, there is something about Ross courses that suits Stenson’s eye, and at this kind of price we’re happy to take a punt on a major winner desperate to get back among the big guns.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 1st
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Byeong-Hun An (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 67.0, GPFP: 53.60 Salary: $7,100)
Whenever we’re looking for a sleeper play at a course that suits premium ball-strikers, Benny An’s name springs to mind.
He is typically sublime from tee-to-green, and how about this for a stat: of his last 20 completed rounds, only two have been played over par.
That offers a nod to his consistency and his class, and with a genuine chance of breaching the FedExCup top-30 in time for the TOUR Championship, there is every reason for An to showcase his talents once more this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 18th
- SG: Approach – 20th
- Scrambling – 23rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Chris Kirk (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 68.0, GPFP: 67.97 Salary: $6,700)
It will take a monumental effort from FedExCup number 68, Chris Kirk, to breach the top-30 in time for the TOUR Championship, but in a strange way that might just take the pressure off his shoulders.
Without the burden of qualification, Kirk can just enjoy what will probably be his final run out of the season, and look to cash in on some decent form of late.
In amongst the first-round leaders at the Dell Technologies Championship, the four-time PGA TOUR winner was T11 at another Donald Ross design for the Wyndham Championship just a few weeks ago.
Kirk is also one of the few in the field with a top-10 to his name at Aronimink.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 18th
- SG: Approach – 18th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 40th
Sleeper Pick for The BMW Championship
Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 70.4, GPFP: 56.30 Salary: $7,400)
The Argentine was in a rich vein of form around springtime, before tailing off during the summer. But, there have been signs of life lately.
Three rounds under par at the Northern Trust were backed by a rock solid effort at last week’s Dell Technologies Championship, where Grillo was outstanding from tee-to-green.
With a top-10 to his name at another Ross property, East Lake, Grillo is clearly up for the challenge that the famed architect lays down, and further top-10s this season at PGA National and Colonial show that he is more than happy to grind his way around.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 29th
- SG: Approach – 30th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 35th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The BMW Championship
Daniel Berger (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 61.9, GPFP: 65.60 Salary: $7,200)
There was some more excellent golf played by Daniel Berger at TPC Boston, and he looks to be somewhere near his best at the moment despite a niggling injury to his wrist.
It was the 25-year-old’s outstanding approach play that laid the foundations at the Dell Technologies Championship, and that’s a skillset that could once again come in handy at the possibly wet Aronimink.
Berger was sweating on his place in the field this week, but with some decent FedEx points banked in Massachusetts he now has a ‘free hit’ to try and book his spot at East Lake.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 19th
- Total Driving – 37th
- Scoring Average – 37th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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