Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – WGC Mexico Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC Mexico Championship
2018 WGC Mexico Championship Fantasy Preview
It’s just another manic Monday, sang never-forgotten 1980s pop collective The Bangles. If they’d had a chance to experience the PGA TOUR in 2018, they may just have re-titled the song to the admittedly less-alliterative Manic Sunday.
Just like the Genesis Open a week prior, the final round at the Honda Classic served up more twists and turns as six players – Justin Thomas, Luke List, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Webb Simpson and Jamie Lovemark – flip-flopped at the summit of the leaderboard.
In the end, it was Thomas and List who duked it out for honors as the others fell by the wayside, with the contest going to a play-off after the pair could not be split in regulation time at -8.
Thomas only needed one extra hole to see off the plucky challenger, and in doing so claimed his seventh PGA TOUR title in less than 18 months. He heads to Mexico for this week’s WGC event, where he led after 54 holes last year, full of confidence and keen for redemption there.
Only the great and the good are invited to these World Golf Championship events, and so we can expect the very best to battle it out for the tasty $1.6 million winner’s purse this week!
Dustin Johnson plays his shot from the second tee during the final…
Dustin Johnson plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 18, 2018 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Honda Classic
We’re back-to-back picking the winner on the Euro TOUR, but first, let’s take our lumps from the PGA TOUR. We will be brutally honest, we were torn between JT and Rickie last week and we opted for Rickie. In the end, it bit us pretty hard…easily as hard as the Bear Trap bit the pros.
No excuses on this one; we just picked the wrong horse last week. Adam Scott (T13), Russell Henley (T24), and Gary Woodland (T49) were the only picks to hang around over the weekend.
We’ll take our lumps, learn a hard lesson about second-guessing ourselves and bounce back hard this week!
Justin Thomas poses for a photo with the winner’s trophy after…
Justin Thomas poses for a photo with the winner’s trophy after winning a playoff during the final round of the Honda Classic at PGA National Resort and Spa on February 25, 2018 in Palm Beach Gardens,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The better news came from across the pond at the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters where we successfully picked Eddie Pepperell as our mid-tier must-have and boy did it pay off! We have now picked the winner in back-to-back weeks on the European Tour.
In case you missed it, here’s what we said about Eddie P heading into last week:
Eddie Pepperell – $7,500 – ‘I hit it so well on the range today I almost posted a video. Then I realized even I don’t give a s@*$.’
Welcome to the world of Eddie Pepperell, a fantastic player whose Twitter feed is almost as entertaining as his golf.
He posted that tweet on Monday, and it is an indication – potty mouth and self deprecation aside – that the Englishman is pleased with his game. And that, allied to ranking eighth for Putts per Round in Oman, should be enough to get us, and him, excited.
Pepperell has a best of T4 at Doha GC from 2015.
2018 WGC Mexico Championship Field
The sheer nature of these WGC events dictates that the field is strong, and while it’s disappointing that the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Henrik Stenson have turned down the chance to appear in Mexico, and Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka are struggling with injury, this is still one of the few chances we will have of seeing a genuinely world class field go at it prior to The Masters.
Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson….you get the general idea. Only the crème de la crème will tee up at Golf Club de Chapultepec this week.
All of the world’s top 50 players according to the OWGR are invited, as are the top pros from the various other Tours around the world: European, Asian, Australasian, Japan and Sunshine. That leads to a rather eclectic line-up, of course.
The European contingent will be looking to go strong again after fine showings in the Honda Classic; Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren were right in the mix for the title there, while Dylan Frittelli and Thomas Pieters just nestled outside of the top-ten.
This will be the first chance for an American audience to see the mercurially-talented Shubhankar Sharma, whose formline reads MC-MC-1-61-48-1-11-1 worldwide!
Jon Rahm of Spain walks off the 16th green with Justin Rose of…
Jon Rahm of Spain walks off the 16th green with Justin Rose of England during the third round of the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates on November 18, 2017 in Dubai, United Arab… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
We had our first glimpse of Golf Club de Chapultepec 12 months ago, and we must say it was rather pleasing on the eye.
This might be a piece of real estate located not far from Mexico City, but the layout was actually designed by a pair of Scottish brothers, Willie and Alex Smith. Perhaps that’s one of the reasons why the fairways are tree-lined, and the course has a typically European parkland feel.
Measuring 7,267 yards for its Par 71 mark, Golf Club de Chapultepec is actually one of the highest altitude courses on the PGA TOUR; sitting some 7,500 feet above sea level. Perhaps that’s why the driving distance leader 12 months ago, Bubba Watson, averaged a lengthy 331 yards off the tee for the week!
The layout boasts the double-header of Kikuyu fairways and rough plus a Poa Annua/Bentgrass mix on the greens; the exact same set-up as Riviera, which of course hosted the Genesis Open just a two weeks ago.
As far as the course’s character is concerned we are still learning ahead of what will be only the second competitive tournament here of any relevance, although at juncture it is worth pointing out that Dustin Johnson, last year’s winner here, ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Approach. Perhaps we can safely file Golf Club de Chapultepec under the heading ‘second shot course’!
Players approach the 17th hole during the final round of the World…
Players approach the 17th hole during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on March 5, 2017 in Mexico City, Mexico. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Mexico City, Mexico
The players who were buffeted by the breeze in Florida will a least have some respite this week in Mexico: while the wind is expected to reach up to 13 mph, that is small fry compared to the howling gale blowing in the Sunshine State, and besides which this layout is well sheltered by the trees.
Thursday is shaping up to be a nice day with sunny spells and top temperatures of 75 degrees, although gamers might just want to keep an eye on Friday’s forecast. Rain showers are expected in the afternoon, and while the small field ensures there won’t be a huge draw bias there will perhaps be an advantage to drafting the late starters on Friday. But, as ever, stay tuned to the forecast for a more accurate reading nearer the first tee.
The good news is that the weekend is set fair, with top temperatures of 78 degrees and wind speeds of around 8 mph.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC Mexico Championship
Dustin Johnson claimed the first WGC event of 2017 here 12 months ago to reaffirm his status as the world number one, but for Justin Thomas it was very much a case of what might have been.
The Honda Classic champion led by one overnight heading into the final round, but with DJ a single shot back and the likes of Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson in his rear-view mirror, JT folded under the pressure.
He carded a final round of 72 to fall completely out of the reckoning, as DJ took hold with an example of how to win on a Sunday with a rock-solid display of ball striking.
Not that he had it all his own way; Jon Rahm gained four shots in the space of six holes on the back nine to go one clear before he capitulated when finishing with a pair of bogeys.
So Johnson took the honors, with Tommy Fleetwood in solo second, Rahm and Ross Fisher sharing third place, and Thomas and Thomas Pieters in a tie for fifth.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h435UJA8Tcw[/embedyt]
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC Mexico Championship this Week
DraftKings are rolling out a few Mexican themed contests this week to celebrate golf south of the border, and one in particular catches the eye:
- PGA $500k Medium Mexico Classic: This $44 buy-in contest features a top prize of $100k and minimum payouts of a cool $1k for the top 20 finishers. You’ll be smashing up piñatas left, right and center if you cash here!
- PGA $200k Best Ball: For those on a slimmer budget, there’s still the chance to grab a $20k top prize for just an $8 entry in this large field event. The top 25% of players will land a payout.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC Mexico Championship
As ever at courses where we only have a very limited statistical background to work with, there will be an element of guesswork to any draft this week.
The most obvious pointer coming from last year’s hosting was that Golf Club de Chapultepec is a layout where strong iron play is the key. What you do off the tee seems less important – we always want to go long, of course, but the tree-lined fairways dictate where the players will get the heavy artillery out of the bag and where they won’t.
For context, DJ averaged 321 yards off the peg….Brandt Snedeker left his driver in the bag, averaging 273 yards off the tee, and finished T7. Different strokes for different folks.
But yes, the stats didn’t lie. Johnson ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green ad Approach, while the likes of Fleetwood, Fisher, Pieters and McIlroy (T7) all had good weeks with iron and wedge in hand.
DJ gained just +0.402 strokes on the field with his putter, and that’s not to say he had a particularly bad week with the flat stick: his approach game was just so good that he left himself with rudimentary short and medium length putts to finish off.
We may surmise that Riviera is the perfect lead in for a good turn at Chapultepec: both are tree-lined, both are Bentgrass/Poa, both are Kikuyu and both, when taking altitude into account, are similar yardages. And like that famous venue, this layout in Mexico features scoring opportunities and holes on which to tough it out in equal measure.
One of the abiding memories of Chapultepec was just how many trees lined the fairways, and how thick they were too. If you can’t remember off the top of your head do have a look on Google Maps: this is one of the densest ‘forestry’ courses that the players will tackle this year. It serves up some kind of comparison with Colonial Country Club (home of the Dean & Deluca) and even Augusta as far as the sight-lines off the tee are concerned.
It may be over-egging the pudding a tad, but Johnson has won here, Riviera and at Sheshan International; home of the WGC HSBC Champions event. All three are densely tree-lined, so perhaps that is another angle of attack for players to consider this week.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC Mexico Championship
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC Mexico Championship
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 94.6, GPFP: GPFP: 122 Salary: $11,500)
It would be easy to accuse anyone of backing Justin Thomas of ‘after-timing’ by drafting him this week, but the truth is that he has a history of piecing together outstanding performances.
You may recall the run at the tail-end of last season which secured him his first major title and the FedEx Cup honors: first in the PGA Championship, JT would follow up by winning the Dell Technologies Championship, finishing second in the TOUR Championship and T6 in the Northern Trust; all within the space of five outings.
And that followed another rich vein of connected form earlier in the campaign, where he won back-to-back on the Hawaiian Swing at the Tournament of Champions and Sony Open.
His win at the Honda Classic last week came as no fluke either as he led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – second in Approach too – and so the crucial aspect this week on this ‘second shot course’ is looking strong from Thomas’ perspective. He also ranked sixth on Approach at Riviera, so we’ve no doubt that his form can be repeated this week.
The bulk of his career victories – and that’s seven on the PGA TOUR in the space of 18 months, by the way – have come on Bermuda, but that’s not to say that Thomas cannot turn his hand to Poa/Bentgrass either. He has triumphed in the CJ Cup and Dell Technologies Championship on the surface, and lest we forget he led here at the 54-hole mark 12 months ago.
It’s natural for a drop-off in form from an event winner, but JT has proven himself in the past to remain motivated from week-to-week, and the riches on offer in Mexico this week – plus the fact he has never won a WGC event before – should be motivation enough to secure another strong showing from the 24-year-old. And by the way, have you seen his GPFP this week?
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 4th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 8th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Alex Noren (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 75.1, GPFP: 64.68 Salary: $8,800)
Twice in the space of four weeks has Alex Noren been involved in a close scrap for the title, and that is an indication that he has well and truly found his feet on American soil.
The Swede has made himself into a semi prolific winner on the European Tour, but as we know translating that pedigree onto the PGA TOUR and into big WGC events like this does not come automatically.
So it’s pleasing to see that Noren is competing hard in strong field Tour events. Having missed out at the Farmers Insurance Open in a playoff, he finished T16 in the tough Genesis Open and T3 at the Honda Classic last week.
So the form is strong, and another feather in Noren’s cap is that he won at another tree-infested layout, Wentworth, to claim the BMW PGA Championship in 2017.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 12th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 33rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Paul Casey (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 80.9, GPFP: 87.39 Salary: $8,400)
Four of the first six players home in this event 12 months ago were European, and whether that is merely coincidence – we only have one leaderboard to work with, remember – or a sign of something more concrete remains to be seen.
But we do know that the Europeans typically have more experience of playing parkland tracks and on Kikuyu, so perhaps there is something in that.
As far as straight shooting goes, Paul Casey is a safe bet this week. He thrives in approach play tests like this, and the presence of a few trees off the tee won’t faze him; this is a guy who has also won at Wentworth and who routinely plays well at Augusta, too.
The Englishman isn’t the flashiest of players around, but in ranking 30th for Birdie Average he should still give us plenty of bang for our buck in what is, don’t forget, a no cut event.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th
- SG: Approach – 14th
- Par Breakers – 23rd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Russell Henley (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 56.8, GPFP: 58.58 Salary: $7,400)
It would appear that, once again, the salary-makers have largely overlooked Russell Henley – not that that bothers us!
The 28-year-old is enjoying a decent run of form at the moment, and brings with him a hot hand that has survived the testing conditions of PGA National (T24 in the Honda Classic – inside the top-10 at the halfway mark) and enjoyed a decent turn at the rather more friendly AT&T Pebble Beach (T15).
Henley has a T11 to his name at the tree-framed Augusta National, and won at the less arboricultural but tree-heavy nonetheless Waialae as well.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 18th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 46th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 63rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Joost Luiten (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 69.4, GPFP: 62.80 Salary: $7,300)
One player from the European Tour who really is outstanding with irons in hand is Joost Luiten, and that was the foundation for his victory at the Oman Open just a two weeks ago.
His formline extends back to a T11 in Malaysia too, at another tree-lined event hosted by Saujana, and anybody that can finish second at the dastardly Valderrama should be able to do well at the similar (in aesthetics) Chapultepec.
One black mark against Luiten’s name is that he has never quite come to the party in majors, which poses the question can he mix it with the big boys? He spoke with such confidence after his win in Oman, however, that we are willing to give him a chance to.
Key Stats (European Tour):
- Greens in Regulation – 71%
- Driving Accuracy – 62%
- Average Putts Per Round – 29.25
Sleeper Pick for the WGC Mexico Championship
Pat Perez (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 69.7, GPFP: 90.91 Salary: $7,400)
The nature of the WGC, no cut events dictates that as DFS gamers we can open the net far and wide in the search for birdie makers. We want high finishes too, of course, but breaking par is another handy weapon in the arsenal.
Curiously, Pat Perez ranks fourth on Tour this season for Birdie Average, which is a circumstantial stat but revealing nonetheless. Of course, many of those birdies came at the start of the campaign when Perez was in fine form, but it is still a handy indicator.
He shot two rounds under par at Riviera (and the others of 72 and 73 are nothing to worry about), and will surely enjoy the more agreeable conditions of Chapultepec.
Mexico is always something of a homecoming for Perez; he is partly Mexican in heritage, and won the OHL Classic south of the border in 2017.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 4th
- SG: Approach – 37th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 62nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC Mexico Championship
Hao-Tong Li (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 70.4, GPFP: 122 Salary: $7,400)
The Chinese golfer sat in T26 after 54-holes of the Genesis Open on his first visit to Riviera, and that offers a hint as to the potential that this 22-year-old possesses.
Li won on his penultimate start at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he was being chased by Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton on the championship Sunday. That, and the fact he has won the China Open under intense pressure from his home fans, tells us that this is a fine prospect indeed.
The youngster has finished in the top-five at two tree-lined layouts (Shenzhen International 2015, Maybank Championship 2017), and as a confirmed birdie-maker could well be a solid sleeper play for gamers this week.
Key Stats (European Tour):
- Greens in Regulation: 69.37%
- Average Putts Per Round: 29.45
- Stroke Average: 70.78
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
With JT
Without JT
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the WGC Mexico Championship with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
