Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions – 2014 Shell Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Shell Houston Open April 3rd – 6th, 2014

Tournament Preview

The 2014 Shell Houston Open represents the last PGA TOUR event before the 2014 Masters, with plenty of players making their their final tune-up before heading to Augusta on Sunday. Names like McIlroy, Fowler, Spieth, Haas, Kuchar, Mahan, Stenson, Dustin Johnson and (maybe) Phil Mickelson will be in attendance at the Golf Club of Houston on Thursday to tee it up during what’s forecasted to be a rainy week.

Last week’s winner Steven Bowditch will be back in the field, although we don’t predict as much noise coming out of him this week given the stronger field. FedExCup points leader Jimmy Walker, who had a decent showing at the VTO last week, will also be back to hopefully scoop up some more points before heading to Augusta.

The Course

Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course) measures in at 7,441 yards and plays as a par 72. Recently given a new name, this Rees Jones design has been known to replicate Augusta National’s setup, making it the perfect venue for players to get their game in shape for the Masters.

Formerly Redstone GC, the new course has recently changed owners and is now controlled by the Escalante Golf Company who also grabbed four other Houston-area clubs. Most of the features of the course remain unchanged and it still plays as a challenging track with tough greens and a Stimpmeter reading of 13+. It’s also important to note that the long 488-yard 18^th ranks as one of the most difficult closing holes on TOUR. This concluding hole is lined with water that runs along the entire left side, which should make for an interesting 72^nd hole if things are close down the stretch.

Photo by GolfClubofHouston.com

Weather Forecast for Houston, TX (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (April 3) 79 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 2: Friday (April 4) 80 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 3: Saturday (April 5) 74 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday (April 6) 72 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.

2013 Results

D.A. Points was forced to sit through an excruciating three-hour rain delay before eventually notching a huge win which granted him a late Masters invitation. Points finished with a 6-under-par 66 with four pars to hold off the hot-handed Henrik Stenson and Billy Horschel by just one stroke. D.A. arrived in Houston with his mother’s old putter in the bag, the key to his victory according to Points, who fired an opening round 64. Horschel and Stenson also closed with 66s, but fell short when Points drained a couple of tough pars at Nos. 17 and 18. We won’t be taking the reigning champ this week.

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Perhaps more importantly than the million bucks and 500 FedExCups points on the line this week is the coveted last invite to the Masters. Both Johnson Wagner (2008) and D.A. Points punched their ticket last year with a win in Houston.

Mickelson, who had a strong showing here last year just can’t seem to get his game in gear as of late. The struggling lefty had to withdraw from last week’s VTO with injury and it’s still uncertain if he’ll be in the field this week.

Fantasy Notes

It’s always a challenge to pick winners in such a flooded field of champions, but our predictions as of late have certainly been on point. Last week we opted to pick Furyk over Mickelson, a wise choice given Phil’s WD and Furyk’s T6 finish. We also opted away from sleeper favorite Freddie Jacobson who finished -1 ($78,740) for own own sleeper pick Charlie Hoffman, who finished T11 and earned $136,400. If we play our cards right we should see similar fantasy successes this week.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 4-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-3p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC). 
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon-6 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com). 
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 Shell Houston Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Shell Houston Open

• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 12/1): Even though Las Vegas has DJ as a second favorite at 14/1 odds, we think they’re underestimating his ability to rise to the occasion in big events. Johnson has top 10s in all five stroke-play events in the 2013-14 season and 4 of them are Top 5s. He also finished T4 in his last start which was on the difficult (and windy) Blue Monster at Doral. DJ currently leads the PGA TOUR in more stats than we can count and he shared a 4th place finish here last year. He’s our horse this week.
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 16/1): We really like what we’ve seen out of the World No. 3 recently (save for the shank heard ’round the world). The 2013 FedExCup champion is coming off a T5 at Bay Hill where he co-led field in fairways hit while putting on a GIR clinic. Stenson finished T3 at Golf Club of Houston in 2009 and tied with Billy Horschel for T2 last year after coming up short to D.A. Points. Needless to say, he’s certainly no stranger to this track.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 20/1): There is something about Spieth that draws us towards picking him every week. Perhaps it’s the fact that the TOUR’s hottest young star already has four Top 10s this year and close to $2 million in earnings. Or perhaps it’s his short game that never seems to quit. Regardless, some might say that’s all adds up to a solid fantasy player…and we agree. Spieth has what it takes to win in any field, and this week could be his if the putter heats up.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 22/1): We struggled with the idea of leaving Kuch out this week and slotting in Keegan or Mahan, however, like we said in last week’s predictions, this is when Kuch began to heat up last year which culminated in his dominant win at the Players in May of 2013. He could  (and should) have wrapped it up in San Antonio if his driver didn’t fail him last Sunday, but he ended up finishing T4 (his fifth top 10 of 2013-14). With those kinds of stats its tough to avoid him, plus Kuch finished T8 in his last two starts at Golf Club of Houston (2010, 2011).  He’s a Top 10 animal.
• Rory McIlroy(Golficity Odds 28/1): You might be surprised to see Rory in this spot with Vegas boasting him as the clear favorite. As mentioned earlier, we disagree with picking him that high, but we do agree that he needs to remain in consideration heret.  His P2 (Playoff 2nd) finish at the Honda showed us signs of life, but we’re not set on the young Irishman until he starts notching more Top 10s. He could win this thing, but we wouldn’t pick him outright. Ignore the 9/1 Vegas odds and pick him low this week.

 Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Shell Houston Open

• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 45/1): “The silent killer,” Haas has the ability to creep up leaderboards and win events like this. He has top 25s in his last four starts including a T14 in his last PGA TOUR appearance at Copperhead. The 2011 FedExCup champ finished T10 at Golf Club of Houston last year and currently ranks 21st in the all-around. If you need a new sleeper pick this week, grab Haas. He’s got the ability to earn you some nice fantasy coin.
• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 66/1): Once again we’re going to stick with Hoffman in the super-sleeper spot. Charlie did everything we could ask of him last week in San Antonio with a T11, bringing home a nice chunk of fantasy change. Keep in mind that he’s also 7-for-7 at Golf Club of Houston with one top 10 and three additional top 25s.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Valero Texas Open

• Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 12/1): T6 ($200,725)
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 18/1):  T16 ($78,740)
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 20/1): 10^th ($167,400)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 22/1): T4 ($272,800)
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 25/1):  T6 ($200,725)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Valero Texas Open

• Jason Kokrak (Golficity Odds 33/1): T31 ($36,766)
• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 65/1):  T11 ($136,400)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $14,786,049 (Average tournament winnings of $1,137,388).
• Winners picked: 3 winners selected out of 13 tournaments (23.07% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 34 out of 91 players picked (37.36% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 10 out of 91 players picked (11% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 9 out of 91 players (90.10% of the picks made the cut in 2014).

What are your fantasy picks and predictions for this week’s 2014 Shell Houston Open at Golf Club of Houston? Let us know by leaving your comments below.

(Cover Photo Credit)