Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions – 2014 Valero Texas Open

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Valero Texas Open March 27 – 30, 2014

Tournament Preview

The Florida swing has come to a close and the TOUR will now head to Texas before returning back east to Augusta National for the Masters. Returning champion Martin Laird will be in the field to defend his title among some big names like Mickelson, Walker, Spieth, Kuchar, and Zach Johnson. The challenge this week will be a daunting course that lies ahead, however, we’re confident that we can bank some serious fantasy dollars with this week’s field.

The Course

TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks) measures in at 7,435 yards and plays as a par 72. The course is a Greg Norman & Sergio Garcia collaboration and it opened back in 2010 as one of two courses located in Texas Hill Country (north of San Antonio). The Oaks course offers a tough challenge with narrow fairways and deep bunkers (some 12 feet deep). The native vegetation presents plenty of unplayable lies, forcing players to navigate through the clubs in their bag a little more carefully.

Photo by TPC.com

You may recall three years ago when Kevin Na carded a 16 at the par-4 ninth hole after finding himself under rocks and in the deep brush. It’s certainly a day he would like to forget.

Kevin Na cards a 16 in Round 1 of Valero Texas Open

In the opening round of the 2011 Valero Texas Open, Kevin Na cards a 16 on the par-4 9th hole at the AT&T Oaks Course. Tell us what you think on Facebook: http://facebook.com/PGATOUR. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Mar 27) 82 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 2: Friday (Mar 28) 86 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (Mar 29) 81 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (Mar 30) 81 degrees, 0% chance of rain, sunny.

2013 Results

Martin Laird birdied his final three holes to win his third PGA TOUR victory, matching the course record with a 9-under-par 63, and beating out the charging Rory McIlroy by two shots after beginning the day four shots behind leader Billy Horschel. Laird birdied five of his first nine holes to get an early jump on the field, but the tension built as Rory kept steady pressure on Laird. In the end however, Laird’s late birdie on 17 from just off the fringe, followed by a clincher 15-foot birdie putt on 18 was enough to seal the deal. McIlroy finished with a 66 which was his best finish in the six months since he won the 2012 BMW Championship.

Round 4 Recap: 2013 Valero Texas Open

In the final round of the Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio, Martin Laird shot an 9-under 63 to win his first Texas trophy by two strokes. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Phil Mickelson returns this week after taking two weeks off to try and get his game in tune for a chance to win his fourth green jacket at Augusta. Since his WD at Torrey Pines, Mickelson’s best finish was T16 at the WGC Cadillac Championship at Doral.

There are still a handful of Masters invitations left to be handed out and two could potentially go to world No. 57 Chesson Hadley and No.63 Ryan Palmer, both of who will be eagerly trying to crack the top 50 after Sunday.

Martin Laird will also try to become the third man to defend a Texas Open crown since Justin Leonard did it back-to-back in 2000-01, followed by Zach Johnson doing the same in 2008-09.

Fantasy Notes

We were hampered with a couple of unexpected withdrawals last week (Bubba and Hunter), as well as an unlikely missed cut from Justin Rose, but our other picks hung in there to rack up a total of $729,606, bumping our total 2014 earnings to over $13,692,943. Bubba Watson’s WD drew particular criticism from fans an analysts alike who felt his “allergies” were simply an excuse to withdraw due to bad play. Adam Scott, another of our top picks last week, saw his opportunity to win slip through his grasp as he gave up a lofty seven shot lead by posting a final round 76.  Ouch!

With that said, our weekly fantasy picks and predictions are currently averaging over $1.14 million in total fantasy earnings per tournament for 2014, keeping our Premium Members squarely on track for another record breaking season.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-3p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC). 
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon-6 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com). 
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 Valero Texas Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Valero Texas Open

• Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 12/1): While Vegas has ZJ at a16/1, we think he has a slightly better chance to win this week. Johnson is a two-time winner of the VTO but hasn’t competed in the event since missing the cut back in 2010. Already with a win this year, Johnson has a total of two Top 3s, three Top 10s, and nine Made Cuts in nine appearances.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 18/1): Walker has been quiet since going on a tear earlier this year. He’s 10 of 11 this year in cuts made with three wins and retains dominant FedExCup points lead. Walker also has a T3 here at TPC San Antonio from back at the 2010 VTO. We picked him higher than the Vegas oddsmakers did this week because he’s a hometown hero who knows the track well. Since we haven’t seen him since the WGC-Cadillac at Doral, we have to speculate that he headed home to get a few practice rounds in at TPC San Antonio.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 20/1): We kind of hope this kid finally raises a trophy this week. Spieth has amassed three Top 10 finishes including one runner up in 2014, but his putter seams to be keeping him just short of the big check.   Overall the young sophomore hasn’t had much success at the VTO, finishing with only a T41 and a MC in his two previous attempts, but with seven Top 25s under his belt already this season, Spieth is likely to earn you some coin this week.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 22/1): Just as he did in 2013, Kuchar lost his hot hand during the Florida swing, but if you remember, Texas was also where he regained his focus last year. Kuch as two Top 25s here at TPC San Antonio and is a cut-making machine. He wouldn’t be our top pick to win it all, but he can be a serious contender for a Top 10 nod this week.
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 25/1): It came down to either Furyk or Mickelson in this spot, but Mickelson hasn’t cracked a Top 10 yet in the 2013-2014 season, which made us take a closer look at Jim Furyk. Furyk is 5 for 5 in cuts-made this year including a T5 at the Match Play event and an 8th place finish at the Northwestern Mutual Challenge in December. Last year he shot under par in each round to finish T3 at TPC San Antonio (which was his event debut). We’re putting him right in line with Vegas here at a 25/1.

 Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Valero Texas Open

• Jason Kokrak (Golficity Odds 33/1): We’ve been watching this young Canadian closely lately, and his impressive finish last week at Bay Hill (4th) really opened our eyes. In eleven events played this season Kokrak has a total of eight made-cuts and seven Top 25s, plus he currently ranks 6th in adjusted scoring. Kokrak notched a  T15 at TPC San Antonio last year and has been making some noise as of late. Great sleeper pick here for sure.
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 45/1): A lot of people are chatting about Freddie Jacobson as their big sleeper, but we’re going with Ryan Moore for this spot. Normally Moore could easily be in our Top 5 picks to win, but there’s something slightly off about his game that’s keeping out of that short list this week. Ignore the T60 at Bay Hill last week and focus on his four Top 10s this season. Simply put, Moore has the type of game that can earn him the win, as long as his mental and physical stamina hangs in there.  If you need a long shot this week, go with Moore – Vegas has him as a 16/1!
• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 65/1):  Due to the recent withdrawals of our Sleeper Pick Ryan Moore, we’re opting to go with Hoffman this week as a secondary long shot. Hoffman has been silently creeping up leaderboards and currently ranks 33^rd in adjusting scoring. He’s also finished no worse than T13 (2x) in four attempts at TPC San Antonio. Charlie finished T3 here last year and currently has three top-10s this season. Grab him to replace Moore if you still need a sleeper this week.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 10/1):  WD
• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 12/1):  WD
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 22/1):  MC
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 25/1):  T20
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 28/1):  3rd

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 40/1):  T52
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 50/1):  T5

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $13,692,943 (Average tournament winnings of $1,141,078).
• Winners picked: 3 winners selected out of 12 tournaments (25% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 30 out of 84 players picked (35.71% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 10 out of 84 players picked (11.90% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 9 out of 84 players (89.28% of the picks made the cut in 2014)

Let us know what you think of this week’s fantasy golf picks and predictions for the 2014 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio by leaving us your comments below.

(Cover Photo Credit)