Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Wells Fargo Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Wells Fargo Championship May 1st – 4th

Tournament Preview

Tiger Woods remains sidelined but sources have confirmed that he has resumed some light chipping. Meanwhile the PGA TOUR rolls on with the field becoming a little more robust this week in North Carolina.  Phil Mickelson will make his first start since missing the cut at Augusta – a rarity to say the least since he hasn’t been cut there since 1997. Although winless at Quail Hollow, Phil has seven top-10s in his last ten appearances here, including 2^nd place finish in 2010.

Last year’s winner, Derek Ernst, will be accompanied by six other past champions, all seeking to become the first repeat winner in this event since it launched eleven years ago. Rory McIlroy almost accomplished that feat but fell to Rickie Fowler’s first TOUR win in a three-man playoff back in 2012.

Webb Simpson, who hasn’t made much noise this year, is playing on home turf this week – he resides not too far from Quail Hollow. Simpson held the 54-hole lead two years ago before losing out to the three-man playoff by one stroke.

The Field

We didn’t see many big names in the field last week in New Orleans, but that has all changed this week as players are starting to prepare for the upcoming Players Championship. As we mentioned, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy will be in attendance to fight off past champs Rickie Fowler and Derek Ernst. Ernie Els, Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson and Justin Rose will in the field as well, and you can’t look past guys like Martin Laird, Hunter Mahan, and Brendon de Jonge.

The Course

Quail Hollow Club measures in at 7,442 yards and plays as a par 72. This beautifully laid out track was designed by George Cobb and opened way back in 1962. From the start this course proved its worthiness of hosting big events for all the major TOURs. Quail Hollow originally began hosting the Kemper Open in 1969 and continued to do so for ten years after. From there the course then went on to host the World Seniors Invitational  for an additional nine years. After a little Tom Fazio facelift, the PGA TOUR came back to Quail Hollow in 2003 for this event. Quail Hollow will play host to its first major championship in 2017, a date it was granted to host of the PGA Championship. Like other courses on TOUR, this track has a testy 3-hole stretch known as the “Green Mile.” Some players and analysts label this trio as the toughest finishing combination on the PGA TOUR.

Here is a flyover of the tough 16^th at Quail Hollow:

Camera Flyover Hole 16 – Wells Fargo Championship 2014

Camera Flyover Hole 16 – Wells Fargo Championship 2014

Weather Forecast for Charlotte, NC (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (April 24) 75 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 2: Friday (April 25) 68 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (April 26) 72 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (April 27) 79 degrees, 0% chance of rain, sunny.

2013 Results

In 2013 Derek Ernst beat out difficult field to capture his first PGA TOUR win. Ernst took on David Lynn after forcing a playoff with a tap in birdie on the 72^nd hole, quickly defeating him with a birdie on the first playoff hole. At one point, Phil Mickelson had a one-shot lead with only three holes remaining. Lefty tried to hang in tough but wind and rain forced him to bogey Nos. 16 and 17 and drop out of contention. Ernst finished with a 2-under 70 and went on to win after dunking a beautiful 15-footer for birdie, seemingly coming out of nowhere to win the event. Believe it or not, Ernst had entered Quail Hollow last year having missed 6 of 8 cuts in the previous events he has played.

Round 4 Recap: 2013 Wells Fargo Championship

In the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship, Derek Ernst shot a 2-under 70, winning his first PGA TOUR event after a one-hole playoff with David Lynn. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 7:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (GC), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon – 6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

Fantasy Notes

It was a tough week in Louisiana, as we watched a number of top contenders fall by the wayside on what proved to be a challenging TPC track. In total our fantasy picks brought in a disappointing $346,800 at the Zurich Classic, but we’re prepared to shake that off and come back strong again this week. The one bit of shining hope last week was Justin Rose’s T8 finish, bringing in a total of $197,200 in fantasy cash.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 Wells Fargo Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Wells Fargo Championship

• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 10/1): The current FedExCup points leader is back in action this week after short break. It’s been two weeks since he grabbed a T8 in his Masters debut, and we’re still feeling really good about him. Most fantasy players are starting to use him up, so pick him if you haven’t gambled on Walker much this year. For regular fantasy pick-em leagues, be sure to include him in your top three. Remember, he already has five top 10s this season plus a few wins, and he finished T22 here in 2013 to boot.
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 12/1): With everyone screaming Rory this week, a lot of people are (mistakenly) overlooking Furyk. Looking back, he has four top 10s in nine visits to Quail Hollow including a T7 in 2010. Additionally, Furyk has finished no worse than T20 in last four starts. He skipped the Zurich last week so he’ll be fresh off of his T7 at Harbour Town (plus the a week worth of rest). Furyk shines in big field events so he could easily be a top pick this week for most leagues.
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 15/1): Vegas is praising Rory at 7/1, but we see things a bit different. Although he has been showing signs of life lately, Rory still has a lot to prove to fans and fantasy players. This week he’s coming home to the site of his PGA TOUR breakthrough win in 2010. He also managed to work his way into a playoff just two years later before ultimatly losing to Fowler  Although we’re not putting him as high as Vegas we have to admit that he’s consistent here – on top of the record we mentioned before Rory also has a T10 here last year and owns the currentcourse record (62). You’d be foolish not to put him on your fantasy team in some capacity this week.
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 22/1): Admittedly, he’s tough call here because he has no top 25s in five attempts at this event, but Rose has been climbing some leaderboards lately. The reason we have him up here over a Mahan or Mickelson is because he’s posted top 15s in three of his last four starts and is coming off an impressive T8 in New Orleans last week.
• JB Holmes (Golficity Odds 28/1): If you are trying to avoid Mickelson (like we are this week), try playing Holmes again. Some may say he’s a sleeper pick but Holmes has been putting some solid rounds together trying to prove himself out on the course as of late. He’s also coming off of as T11 in New Orleans which marked his fourth top 20 in five starts, and he has a T9 finish under his belt at Quail Hollow.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Wells Fargo Championship

• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 40/1): Moore can quietly jump up the leaderboard and has tons of potential to win here. He logged a T5 here in 2012 and followed that up with another strong T6 last year. In all Moore has four top 10s this season. We have him at a 40/1 shot because he hasn’t made much noise since the WM Phoenix Open, but he’s a solid sleeper pick this week for sure.
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 40/1): One day he can miss the cut and another day he can almost win the Masters. We’re not quite sure how to read Fowler right now, because he can definitely win this event (again), but he can completely fall apart and miss the cut. Although he missed the cut at the Zurich last week, Fowler has Top 10s in two of his last three starts this season and has improved dramatically since going under Butch Harmon’s wing. Our hope is that his 2012 PGA breakthrough win here fires him up come Thursday.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Zurich Classic

• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 18/1): MC
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 25/1): MC
• Matt Every (Golficity Odds 30/1): WD
• Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 35/1): MC
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 38/1): T8 ($197,200)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Zurich Classic

• JB Holmes (Golficity Odds 50/1): T11 ($149,600)
• Kevin Stadler (Golficity Odds 50/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $20,832,565 (Average tournament winnings of $1,225,445).
• Winners picked: 5 winners selected out of 17 tournaments (29.41% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 44 out of 119 players picked (36.97% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 14 out of 119 players picked (11.76% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 15 out of 119 players (87.39% of the picks made the cut in 2014).
• Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 1 (100%)

What are your fantasy picks and predictions for this week’s 2014 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow? Let us know by leaving your comments below.

(Cover Photo Credit)