Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

Another week, another shock winner on the PGA TOUR.

Austin Eckroat is a super-solid player, make no mistake, and he enjoyed one of the best ball-striking and putting combined performances of his career at PGA National in the Cognizant Classic.

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But he went off at sportsbook odds of 100/1, which means he has to be filed under the ‘surprise champion’ heading. 

One of the reasons is just how easy a typically tough layout played. Rory McIlroy alluded to it in a press conference on Wednesday, suggesting that the rough had been trimmed down and the greens softened. We normally take these things with a pinch of salt, but he wasn’t kidding.

PGA National played as a shadow of its former self, whether caused by rain and bad weather in the area or as an edict passed down by PGA TOUR chiefs to make courses more scoreable – woefully failing to read the room accurately that birdies are all that make for entertaining golf to watch. 

Hopefully, it’s the former rather than the latter, and either way our bets will be amended accordingly in 2025.

Anyway, rant over – it’s on we go to a layout that *should* almost certainly provide a sterner test in the second leg of the Florida Swing.

Bay Hill, the layout purchased by Arnold Palmer back in the 1970s, has been lovingly restored and crafted by the man himself – today, it remains almost a major-worthy test of ball-striking, scrambling and putting.

Arnie lends his name to the tournament, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and this should be the first challenging assignment for the players in 2024, with doglegging, tree-lined fairways, water patrolling ten holes and more than 80 bunkers on the premises.

The Bermuda greens run fast – at least they will do if it doesn’t bucket it down with rain, as is forecast, so there’s challenges from tee to flagstick….exactly how most golf lovers like to watch the pros tested.

This is another Signature Event on the PGA TOUR, so you probably know the drill by now – a small field (72 players, pending withdrawals), and a mini 36-hole cut trimming the field to 50 and ties.

There’s more money on the table too, hence why such a strong field is assembling in Florida – in fact, Tony Finau is the only player that’s eligible who has turned down their invitation. There’s McIlroy, Scheffler, Cantlay, Morikawa, Schauffele, Spieth, and defending champion – checks notes – Kurt Kitayama.

Yep, that’s right, 200/1 chance Kitayama played a blinder here 12 months ago, topping the field for fairways found and flushing the lights out with his long irons – making a mockery of his pre-tournament price. 

You would think that’s the exception to the rule for a classy event won by the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, Bryson, Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari in recent years, but given how the season has gone so far with longshot victories, you can never be too sure.

With that in mind, who makes the grade in our sleeper shortlist for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational?

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Keegan Bradley – 60/1 – Although he has the ability to be frustrating when backed, Keegan Bradley is – at his best – the sort of smooth operator that can thrive at Bay Hill.

He’s got five finishes of T11 or better at this stretch, including T2 and T3, which confirms that this straight shooter – whose best work tends to come on Bermuda greens – has got what it takes to win at this level.

A missed cut at the Genesis aside, things have been going well for Keegan in 2024, with T2 at the Sony Open followed by T11 at Pebble Beach.

Harris English – 66/1 – Almost going under the radar is the tremendous length that Harris English has added to his game – he regularly outdrives the field now, while still hitting fairways liberally enough.

It could be a game-changer for a player who is a high-grade talent anyway, with T7 at the Genesis Invitational last time out an indicator of what upside there is to English now that he can send it.

He finished T2 here 12 months ago as a shorter hitter, so his extra length at a rain-softened Bay Hill should work nicely.

Chris Kirk – 66/1 – A cold week with the flat stick rather undermined Chris Kirk’s title defense at the Cognizant Classic.

Even so, he heads to Bay Hill with confidence. He likes it here, with two top-10s and four other top-20s to his name, and on Bermuda greens in general, so this is a setup that continues to reward the straight shooter.

Although Kirk’s form has been a mixed bag since winning The Sentry, but his long-term view is of a player who is striking the ball nicely and who will surely putt better this week than last.

Matthieu Pavon – 66/1 – There will, presumably, be a drop-off in Matthieu Pavon’s form soon.

But it’s hard to jump off a train with such momentum. He’s gained strokes on the field with his ball-striking in four out of five starts on the PGA TOUR in 2024 – remember, these are courses he is seeing for the first time as a rookie.

His win at the Farmers in strong company was richly deserved – more than two strokes gained on the field ball striking, and the same putting – is testament to that, so there’s no reason to think he won’t take to Bay Hill either.

Luke List – 90/1 – The margins are fine for a player like Luke List, but he is definitely putting better at the moment.

He was positive in that department at the Phoenix Open and Genesis, and not too shabby in his 36 holes at the Cognizant Classic – a lack of room off the tee costing him a shot at the weekend.

Bay Hill is slightly more forgiving in that regard, and so if List brings his generally-always excellent approach play to party with a more assured hand on the greens, he can perhaps best a PB of T7 here.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2024)

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