Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational  

Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview

The curious case of PGA TOUR 2024 struck again at the Cognizant Classic.

Whether deliberate (the tenth hole turned into a Par 5 rather than a long Par 4), or weather-based, the usually challenging PGA National was turned into a super-soft birdie fest, which brings more players into the field as potential winners.

So much so, after 54 holes of play, 17 of the top 25 players on the leaderboard had started the tournament at sportsbook odds of 100/1 or longer, which must be a rarity to say the least for a non-alternate event.

One of them, Austin Eckroat, muscled his way into a share of the lead with an excellent ball-striking performance, before asserting all the running on his own on Sunday and Monday as rain washed out play on the former.

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It was a maiden PGA TOUR title for Eckroat, but it might well have been his tenth with how serenely he converted his chance.

Golf fans, surely, are united in hoping for a much tougher Arnold Palmer Invitational this week – which it has been, historically.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Our top pick last week was Russell Henley who ended up finishing T41 on the week. 

In total, we had 6 of our total picks make the cut with our best finish being Doug Ghim at T16.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Field

It’s a high-grade field that meets for the latest Signature Event on the PGA TOUR.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the way at a venue that they have loved over the years, while Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth also have recent top-fives to their name here.

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Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa have less salubrious records around Bay Hill – they’ll be looking to make that right this week, while Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas and Cameron Young will be getting their second, third and fourth looks at the track respectively.

Kurt Kitayama, the surprise champion in 2023, will look to defend his title in a field in which McIlroy, Scheffler and Jason Day are the only other previous winners at Bay Hill.

This Week’s Course Preview

Although not an Arnold Palmer design from scratch, the master soon got to work after getting his hands on the keys in 1974.

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Host of this event since 1979, Bay Hill could – you suspect – be used as a major venue, such is the extent of its challenge, which has remained tough for more than four decades.

In the mid-2010s, winning scores started to creep lower and lower, but course officials have got to grips with that and now a single digit under par has been enough to win here in three of the last four years.

Tipping the scales at around 7,450 for its Par 72, Bay Hill is a winding piece of golfing real estate with plenty of trees and doglegging holes, which test the shot-shaping skills of even the game’s best.

Water is in play on ten holes and you’ll find 80+ bunkers too, so there’s trouble at every turn for those straying from the straight from tee to green.

The Bermuda greens themselves run at a speedy 11.5 on the stimp when conditions allow, so even when safely touching down on the dancefloor the difficulty isn’t over.

Factor in the stiff Floridan breeze and we should – in theory – see a much more difficult test than last week, with only seven holes playing under par here last year.

Four of those were the Par 5s – the sixteenth, measuring 511 yards, is blessed relief on this otherwise tough test, while the eighth and ninth were downright nasty, recording nearly as many double bogeys or worse as birdies!

That little stretch may not have a catchy name like the Bear Trap, but it’s an almightily difficult way to end the front nine at Bay Hill.

Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL

Unfortunately, the heavy rain which derailed Sunday’s action at the Cognizant Classic is sticking around in Florida this week.

Rain is in the forecast for Bay Hill on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, before a brief respite for the first two days of action. Temperatures could reach 86 degrees through a mix of sunshine and cloud, with the wind down on Thursday before picking up to 12mph on Friday.

The weekend looks to be a wet and wild one, unfortunately, with the early forecast predicting plenty of rain – particularly on Saturday. The wind on Saturday could hit 20mph, so it will very much be a case of hold onto your hat….and everything else.

ORLANDO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

It’s no disrespect to Kurt Kitayama to label him an unlikely Arnold Palmer Invitational champion – even the sportsbooks had him down as a 200/1 outsider!

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But an opening round of 76 saw him tapping leader Jon Rahm on the shoulder, before a Friday 68 saw him open up a two-shot lead on the field.

Kitayama gave some back in tough conditions on the Saturday with 72, meaning that he led Scheffler by one shot and Hovland by two heading into the final round – most expected that latter duo to duke it out for the title.

But it’s they that would have the jitters, shooting 73 and 75 respectively, to gift-wrap the trophy for Kitayama. 

He birdied three, six and seven, and not even a triple-bogey at the treacherous ninth could derail him as a serene back nine of -1 ensured he remained one stroke clear of McIlroy and Harris English, who couldn’t find a birdie at 17 or 18 to push the tournament into a playoff.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week

This is more like it! Yes, Bay Hill is likely to be impacted by the rain this week, but the variance and the unpredictability of the Cognizant Classic will, hopefully, be long forgotten this week.

• PGA $40k Albatross: Single-entry games are the way to go this week given the small field status and, relatively speaking, the absence of a cut – top-50 and ties in a 72-man field can’t really be described as a cut. So, $12 in for this contest and, hopefully, the $4,000 top prize out.
• PGA $50k Dogleg: For a slightly larger outlay of $33, this single-entry game has a larger payscale – up to $5,000 to the winner – and just 1,766 teams.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Generally speaking, extra distance has been helpful at Bay Hill – and a rain-softened course is likely to accentuate that.

Kitayama went the other way 12 months ago, clubbing down and ranking first for Driving Accuracy, while hitting some excellent approaches from the key yardage bucket of 175-225 yards – more shots in this range are hit at Bay Hill than any other PGA TOUR course, and Kitayama was, statistically, a top-20 player on TOUR last season for that metric.

But, as a rule, it’s long drivers that are comfortable with the right-to-left shot shape in particular that we like at Bay Hill – Scheffler, McIlroy, Cantlay and Speith are all in that lineage, and each finished inside the top-five 12 months ago.

Class with long irons is also essential – just as much for staying out of trouble as setting up birdie chances, while comfort on fast Bermuda greens is also key….albeit they may run softer this year if the rain does fall.

As for correlating courses, nothing particularly springs to mind although you can use Augusta National as a guide – that right-to-left shaping and long irons are both orders of the day there, while leaderboard similarities with the Genesis Invitational are also worthy of a second look.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 87.8, Salary: $10,000)

Patrick Cantlay finished T4 on his debut here 12 months, which really is a tremendous effort at such an idiosyncratic track on first viewing.

After a wobble to start 2024, Cantlay hit his straps last time out with another excellent T4 turn at the Genesis, gaining a mammoth +1.48 strokes on the field on approach and +1.73 putting – always a happy marriage.

Cantlay’s tee-to-green game has been so good these past 12 months it’s amazing that he hasn’t won – maybe Bay Hill will be the place he puts that strange anomaly to rest.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 19th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 35th
• SG: Putting – 58th

Top Tier Pick #2

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 88.7, Salary: $9,400)

A solid opening round at the Genesis was rather undermined by signing for the wrong score and getting disqualified – not Jordan Spieth’s finest hour.

Mind you, it continues his improved touch out on the course, with better driving resulting in solo third at The Sentry and T6 at the Phoenix Open.

Still elite around the greens and with inconsistent brilliance on approach, Spieth has the game to thrive at Bay Hill – as he has proven with two T4 finishes in a pair of trips.

A softer track will also play into his hands, so the signs are very promising for Spieth backers.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 5th
• SG: Putting – 11th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 14th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Cameron Young (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 85.9, Salary: $8,700)

Although his default setting is to give it a whack off the tee, Cameron Young showed at PGA National that he can club down, land his ball in fairways and provide a firm foundation – he reached nearly 80% GIR for the week at the Cognizant.

Young putted better there too, which could well be the missing piece of the puzzle as he seeks that maiden PGA TOUR title.

A rain-softened Bay Hill will aid the quest of a player that’s already finished 10-13 at the track in two visits, and his weak chipping game could be hidden if the Bermuda greens are more receptive due to their softness.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 16th
• Birdie Average – 18th 

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Corey Conners (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 76.5, Salary: $7,800)

Strokes gained on the field off the tee and on approach, strokes lost on the greens.

It’s becoming a running theme of Corey Conners’ career, but one that we must remain sympathetic too – Bermuda is, undoubtedly, the surface he has the best chance of delivering a useful putting performance on.

Besides, we know the Canadian likes the grain of the greens at Bay Hill – you don’t finish 21-11-3 here in your last three trips with an ice-cold putter. Conners can match anyone here tee-to-green….if a few putts drop, he can certainly contend for the trophy.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 17th
• SG: Approach – 19th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 39th

Low-Tier Pick

Adam Scott (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 82.8, Salary: $7,500)

It’s been an outstanding start to 2024 for Adam Scott, whose ball striking is reaching levels not seen from the Australian since he won the correlating Masters.

That’s scored him an invite this week, and while his record at Bay Hill is a mixed bag, Scott was T3 here back in the day.

The way he is flushing the ball, and putting so nicely, it feels as though Scott will win soon – Bay Hill just feels like the kind of layout where that is possible.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 9th
• Bogey Avoidance – 25th
• Scrambling – 30th

Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 66.1 Salary: $6,900)

Emiliano Grillo gained a mammoth +2.64 strokes on the field here with his ball striking 12 months ago, ranking T3 for GIR. A cold flatstick was the reason he didn’t contend more forcibly.

But if you track his data over the past 12 months, the Argentine has definitely been putting much better – to the point that if he pieces that together with his generally very good approach play, he can challenge for honors….as he did when winning the Charles Schwab Challenge.

He’s got a pretty good record at Bay Hill – his best, T7, was matched by that excellent ball-striking effort 12 months ago, so he will relish a return visit.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 25th
• Scoring Average – 40th
• Proximity to Hole – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Taylor Moore (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 71.4, Salary: $6,300)

One of the central tenets to Taylor Moore’s game is his ability from the 200-yard mark – often a key factor at Bay Hill.

His approach play enjoyed something of a renaissance last time out – he was +1.93 on the field at the Genesis, and hopefully that breeds confidence as Moore has the short game to win big tournaments like this one.

He gained +0.93 strokes on the field off the tee and +1.21 putting at Bay Hill 12 months ago, so you can see how the recipe might just come together.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 16th
• SG: Approach – 55th
• Bogey Avoidance – 64th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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