Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2025 John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

It’s off we go to the John Deere Classic this week; the final event on American soil prior to the sojourn to Scotland and Ireland for the Links Swing. This tournament has been played for more than 50 years, with the past 25 of those held at TPC Deere Run, a sumptuous piece of golfing real estate that is one of the most eye-catching on TOUR.

As stunning as it is on the eye, there’s little to separate TPC Deere Run from any other parklands track, which means that the players have taken to it kindly over the years.

None more so than Davis Thompson, who romped to a course record score of -28 in soft conditions last year to win by four strokes. That franked his tremendous potential, at a venue that has otherwise tended to be the preserve of positional style golfers over the years – Sepp Straka, J.T. Poston, and Lucas Glover are the most recent winners aside from Thompson.

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With wide open fairways, large Bentgrass greens, and little in the way of hazards, the winning scores in recent times are indicative of the birdie fest that TPC Deere Run relents to. And that’s despite there being just three Par 5s at this Par 71 layout that measures just shy of 7,300 yards. Landing balls in the fairway, hitting precise wedges, and making putts – that’s the order of the day at a venue at which 14 of the 18 holes averaged under par last year.

Generally speaking, the field hasn’t been the strongest at the John Deere Classic, and that opens the door to the potential of a long odds winner – of Luke Clanton (55/1), Michael Thorbjornsen (66/1), and C.T. Pan (120/1) finished T2 here last year, while Sepp Straka, J.T. Poston, and Lucas Glover won in the three years prior at odds of 50/1 or longer.

So perhaps opportunity knocks for players and punters alike this week… so who have we backed in our 2025 John Deere Classic sleeper shortlist?

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Alex Smalley – 45/1

Smalley finished T2 here in 2023, firing a closing 64 and gaining nearly eight strokes on approach for the week—a perfect blueprint for how to tame TPC Deere Run. In 2025, he’s continued his rise, ranking top 5 in SG: Total on easy scoring courses and excelling in Birdie or Better %—a key stat when you need to go low. His iron play is razor-sharp, and he’s consistently contending in events with softer fields. Given his familiarity with this track and a skill set tailor-made for wedge-heavy layouts, Smalley brings both upside and comfort to this birdie-fest.

Key Stats:

• SG: Total (Easy Courses) – 5th

• Birdie or Better % – Top 10

• SG: Approach – 11th

Eric Cole – 70/1

Cole has been one of the most consistent players in the mid-tier this season, quietly stacking top-30 finishes and gaining ground in SG: Tee-to-Green and Ball-Striking week in and week out. His putting can run hot, and that’s exactly what you need at a course where the winner often flirts with -20 or lower. While Cole doesn’t have a ton of experience here, his short game and scoring efficiency on par 4s under 450 yards (there are seven of them here) make him a great fit. He’s due for a breakout week in a field that lacks big names.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – Top 15

• SG: Ball-Striking – Top 20

• Par 4 Efficiency (<450 yds) – Top 10

Emiliano Grillo – 80/1

Grillo’s ball-striking is once again the strength of his game—he’s gained strokes in that category in each of his last four starts and even posted a T19 at the U.S. Open recently, showing he can handle both tough setups and score-friendly tracks. What makes Grillo a sleeper threat here is that he’s also putting better than usual, gaining strokes on the greens in two of his last three events. Deere Run rewards guys who can find 16+ greens a round and convert from 10–15 feet. Grillo is one of the few in this price range with both the pedigree and form to pull it off.

Key Stats:

• SG: Ball-Striking – Top 10

• Greens in Regulation – Top 10

• SG: Putting (Last 3 Events) – Positive Trend

J.T. Poston – 60/1

Poston won this event in 2022 with a wire-to-wire performance and has shown a consistent knack for taking advantage of bentgrass greens. His short game and wedge play are among the best in this field—he’s 2nd in proximity from 75-125 yards, and top 10 in bentgrass putting over the last 24 rounds. Poston also tends to show up at the same courses year after year, and TPC Deere Run is clearly one of his favorites. His recent form includes a T12 at the Travelers, where he gained over four strokes putting, signaling he could be heating up at the right time.

Key Stats:

• Proximity 75-125 yds – 2nd

• SG: Putting (Bentgrass) – Top 10

• Course History – Winner (2022), Multiple Top 25s

Ryo Hisatsune – 90/1

The 22-year-old from Japan is one of the most accurate drivers in the field, and that opens up tons of scoring chances on a course like Deere Run where position off the tee is more important than distance. He’s gained strokes on approach in five of his last six starts, and while his results haven’t popped yet on the PGA Tour, he’s a proven winner in Japan and Europe. Hisatsune thrives on technical layouts and ranks Top 15 in Fairways Gained and Proximity from 100-150 yards, exactly the kind of repeatable skills needed to go low for four straight days. He could be this year’s breakout name.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – Top 10

• Proximity 100-150 yds – Top 15

• SG: Approach – Trending Up

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the John Deere Classic here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024-2025)

Cover photo via Instagram