Two-Time Major Winner Justin Thomas is Struggling in 2023: But Why?

Entering the 2023 edition of the Ryder Cup in Italy, Justin Thomas is a wild-card member of Team USA who’s desperately searching for his old-form to return.

Prior to the 2023 regular-season’s home-stretch of golf which included the Open Championship and a few regular-events, Thomas and his fellow-Americans were poised to standout for their Head-Captain whilst teeing it up within a pair of marquee events at the (2023-) U.S. Open and The Memorial.

Much to his own dismay, the Kentucky native missed consecutive-cuts at Jack’s Place-&-LACC and managed a combined score of 20 over-par thru 72 holes (Memorial 6-over, US Open 14-over). On Friday of the U.S. Open, Thomas shot an abysmal second-round score of 11 over-par, 81, en route to his second missed-cut (2023 Masters: 4-over) within 2023’s three Major-championships to that point.

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Within his lone made-cut of the 2023 major-championship season, Thomas defended his 2022 PGA Championship victory (which came-) in Oklahoma with a pedestrian, T-65 finish in upstate-New York at Oak Hill Country Club. Over the course of Thomas’s entire 2022-23 Tour-season which includes three missed-cuts in the majors; like his at Royal Liverpool in the calendar-year’s final-major, the American witnessed his world-ranking plummet to 24th while managing just three top-10 finishes and zero-wins across 20 total-tournaments.

From another perspective, Thomas’s game may not be miles-off when one considers the fact that he did rack-up ten top-25 finishes within his 2022-23 tour-campaign with two of them arriving in his last six-events at the Travelers, T-9, and the Wyndham, T-12. Nevertheless, the 15-time Tour-winner and former World Number 1 (player; in JT-) boasts just two victories since the five-time winner in the 2017-season captured his 13th title at the WGC-Fed-Ex St. Jude Classic in 2020; with the 2021 Players and the 2022 PGA being his latest victories. Although Thomas’ victories at the Players Championship and the PGA (for the second time) are no small-feat, the current version of Thomas isn’t rattling off the sheer number of wins that he did during his 2017-to-2020 (stretch of) years; and it isn’t even close.

Within the best-season of his Tour-career to-date, 2017, Thomas was a winning-machine that brought home five-victories including his first major-championship at Quail Hollow within the 2017 PGA Championship . During a four-year span from 2017-to-2020 within Thomas’s professional-career (2013-present), the 5’9”, 155 pound-phenom captured 11 titles while enjoying separate-stints sitting-atop the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

Amid Thomas’s spectacular ascent up the World Rankings, the (now) 30 year-old became close-friends with Tiger Woods and, somewhere along the line, moved to Jupiter, Florida, where Woods also resides. The pair of multiple-time major-winners happen to be members of the same private-club, Medalist Golf Club, and they’ve formed a strong-friendship that ventures into helping each other with their games.

A couple of years back, Thomas sought Tiger’s guidance regarding his own game while (also-) searching for some method to take his talents to the next level. In spite of Thomas’s successes within regular-events prior to the pandemic, the (then-) 27 year-old felt that he was underperforming in the majors; given that he hadn’t yet captured his second-major victory.

In 2020, Thomas still felt unfulfilled despite the fact that he won a couple of times on the PGA Tour during that year and he finished in the field’s top-10 at the Masters and the U.S. Open. Similar to how Tiger adopted a mindset that placed loads of emphasis on the major-championships at a young age, JT wasn’t going to allow himself to bask in the glory of his 2017-brilliance by being satisfied with his close-calls in major championships to that point.

Ever since the (now-) 15-time major-champion enjoyed his most recent-stretch of true-dominance over the golfing world circa 2012-to-2013; a two-year return-to-form which included his ascent back-up the OWGR (and-) to the world number 1 ranking amid 8 tour-victories, the older and (now) more-humbled, 47-year old adopted a softer attitude/approach towards his fellow competitors; an open-mindedness (of-) which was evidenced thru Tiger’s forwardness in teaching the game’s up-and-coming talent.

Luckily for JT, the future HOF’er experienced a climb-up the World Golf Rankings that overlapped with Tiger’s two-year stretch of fine-form from 2018-to-2019 which included three-victories at the 2018 Tour Championship, 2019 Masters, and 2019 Zozo. In late-2020/early-2021, Tiger felt like he was close enough with his good friend, Justin Thomas, to offer him some honest-insight on the state of his (still-) maturing-game. In confidence, Tiger told JT he needed to become more multi-dimensional with his ball-flight.

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Specifically, Thomas needed to learn how to confidently work the ball from right-to-left and at various trajectories; high/medium/low. To that point within Thomas’s career, he was almost exclusively a fader of the golf ball who hit a lot of high moon-balls. Although Justin was able to win while heavily favoring his left-to-right ball-flight, Tiger knew that Justin’s overt favoritism towards playing the fade wasn’t doing the former Bama-standout any favors within golf’s hardest tests; the majors.

In May of 2021, Thomas clearly took Woods’s advice to-heart and displayed that thru capturing one of the world’s most coveted-events in the Players Championship using his superior ball-striking. In attacking TPC Sawgrass’s challenging, dog-leg left 18th-hole (of-) which contains water guarding the entire left hand-side, JT executed a pair of beautiful, piercing-draws from the tee-box with a fairway-wood on (both) Saturday and Sunday en route to winning the tournament.

A year later at the 2022 PGA Championship, Thomas put on another ball-striking clinic and eventually fought-off Will Zalatoris, Mito Pereira and the remaining-competition whilst mounting an historic back-nine charge and, ultimately, captured his second major-championship title. Thru capturing his second major-championship title, Thomas proved to the world that he could move the golf ball in both directions while exerting nearly complete-control over his tee-ball-&-iron-game in-general and throughout all four rounds at Southern Hills. All-the-while, Thomas’s swing in 2022 appeared to be a (near-) carbon-copy of what it was in yesteryear; in spite of a few, key differences.

For over two-decades now, Tiger Woods hasn’t been shy in referencing the inherent significance that lies in “neutralizing” his own setup. Without a neutral setup, Tiger wouldn’t be able to execute his “9 shots” at a level he feels he needs. To be clear, a “neutral” setup is one that isn’t too closed/open relative to our intended target/start-line. In order to achieve a more neutral/square setup, we must have our shoulder/hip/feet/clubface-line all pointed in the same direction; at our target/start-line.

Although (achieving) this may seem relatively straightforward, the best players in the world work diligently to “get their lines” where they need them to be whilst referencing their shoulder/hip/feet-line at the setup-position. Earlier in JT’s career, his shoulder-line was open to his hip/feet-line at address. Remember, golfers are always going to-be prone to bringing the club back (on the backswing) on a line that’s parallel to their feet-line, and returning it on a line that’s parallel to their shoulder-line.

If our shoulder-line is open to our feet-line at the setup position for a right handed player (and left-handed), it’s easier to swing “across the (proper) plane” or, in other words, “too far left (for a righty)”. With his shoulder plane/line angled open, Justin routinely delivered the club-head into the back of the ball on an out-to-in path; or one that’s across-his-body or to-the-left. In order to execute consistent fade’s, he delivered the club from out-to-in with a club-face that’s angled open to the club’s path.

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In his efforts to-neutralize his (open-) shoulder-plane, Thomas worked diligently to involve his lead side. By involving his lead side, Thomas would be more “stacked” at the setup-position; which means that his shoulders/knees/feet are more on-top of each other in-relation to the ground. From another perspective, involving his lead side helps him setup to the golf ball with his lead arm/shoulder more out-in-front of his body; rather than “behind” it. As we’ve touched on previously, you can work on involving your lead side more by doing drills like the one-handed drill. If you watch JT closely on the course these days, you can see him holding the club in just his lead left-hand in an effort to-utilize his lead side adequately.

Before 2020, JT’s hands were positioned a little higher at the top of his backswing than they are now. According to swing-methodology, JT’s plane was too vertical during his winning days. Because JT is a right-hand man like a Scottie Scheffler or a Jordan Spieth, he has no problem executing his beautifully steep-backswing; despite the verticality of his swing being pinned as less-than-optimal.

Over the course of the last two seasons, JT has worked tirelessly on involving his lead side in order to neutralize his setup. In doing so, JT achieved a more optimal position with his hands at the top of the backswing; deeper and more behind-his-head and less-up. From this position, golf swing theory says that JT is in a more favorable-position to return the club-head (in-) to the back of the ball on a line that’s more on-plane. As we saw during the 2021 Players and 2022 PGA Championship, JT proved that he’s able to work the ball in both directions with much more precision and confidence.

But, in a larger sample-size, JT isn’t nearly as comfortable deploying his lead side as he is with his dominant, trail side. Consequently, his scoring has been wildly inconsistent. Looking at JT’s swing now and comparing it to his swing in 2017-‘18, a lot of teachers may reach the conclusion that his setup/swing today is better suited to play good golf. But, his scores on the course aren’t nearly as consistent/good as they used to be. Once again, JT’s genetic-makeup lends itself to the steeper move of his youth.

Obviously speaking, golf isn’t played on a simulator. While you may take pride in achieving a face-to-path value that equals 0.0 during your next Trackman hitting-session, that same-swing may not work miracles for you on the actual golf-course.

Somewhere along the way, JT became so immersed in working the ball (in both directions) to perfection that he ignored his short-game and lost sight of what made him a great player. Now, JT’s iron-game (along with his putting) is about as poor as it’s ever been in his 10 years on the PGA Tour. On the range, his perfectly neutral-setup and his deeper hand-position at the top of his backswing makes it easier for him to hit all types of different shots; whether it’s high draw’s, low fade’s, medium draw’s or what have you. However, in the heat of competition, JT’s ability to exercise control over his iron-game isn’t as pronounced as it once was.

If you watched JT on the putting-green during the 2022 PNC Championship, his new putting-routine involved pretending to roll a ball underhand with his right-hand in the direction of the hole as he stood behind his ball in-line with the hole. After working so hard to-involve his lead-side with his long-game, his putting deserted him thanks to a lack of focus on it as well as his emphasis on (involving-) the hand he prefers not to feel during the putting stroke. By working-on engaging his lead-side to achieve a more neutral setup/ball-flight, he too-oft ignored the feel in his dominant, superior right-hand. Moving forward, I’d argue that JT needs to remember who is he at-heart in order to re-find his game; (and he’s-) a right-hand man.

Mainly, JT lost his way and must remember that he’s a left-to-right player. And, JT is a right-hand man. Not even an athlete as gifted as JT (-is) can rewrite the 20-plus year script that took place during his younger years as a golfer. In other words, JT relied (mostly) on his trail side to win double-digit times on the PGA Tour; as well as a slew of other junior/amateur/collegiate events. In order to hit fades/draws (both adequately), he shouldn’t lose sight of his own DNA; or the indescribable characteristics (-of him) that made/make him great. While I’m all for working on the lead-side, I wouldn’t do it so much that I begin to lose sight of why I play golf.

Myself, JT, and everybody else; plays the game in order to get the ball in-the-hole in the least amount of strokes (-possible). With the Ryder-Cup only two-weeks away, JT needs to get into a golfer’s mindset; and not the mindset of a player who’s merely trying to make swings. In his hey day, Thomas was one of the top-50 putters in the entire world; according to strokes-gained putting circa 2016-‘17 & 2017-‘18. Today, JT’s putting is virtually unrecognizable while (also-) ranking outside of the top-135 in “Strokes-Gained: Putting”.

While the mid-twenties version of Thomas hit his tee-ball around the same distance that he does now and with comparable accuracy, today’s competition has stepped it up a notch or two compared to the fields of the mid-to-late 2010’s. As such, Thomas’ driver lately hasn’t been the weapon that it once was during his winning years. Similarly, Greyson’s main-man has not been the great iron-player that he was during his Ralph Lauren ambassadorship; even though the 30 year old’s iron-game remains well-above the Tour’s average-mark in “Strokes-Gained: Approach”.

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From a strictly statistical-standpoint, however, it’s worth noting that the current state of Thomas’ game mostly resembles that of his former self; besides his performance with the flat-stick. On the other hand; and this is a subject that I’ve been adamant about for quite some time, forging an argument that’s predicated mostly upon comparative-data within larger sample-sizes and can be a misleading initiative; as it fails to tell the whole-story in the proper context; which should be told in groups of four. As this applies to Thomas directly, he hasn’t been able to string together four rounds of quality-golf virtually all season.

Thru 36 holes at the Fortinet Championship this week in Napa, California, Thomas was 8 under-par and just four-shots back of the leader, Sahith Theegala. After hitting just 3 of 14 fairways in his opening-round of 3 under-par, 69, Thomas was quick to point out his struggles with the driver while patting himself on the back for his efforts making big-putts and salvaging a respectable-number on his scorecard.

As JT continues on this path of re-learning how to post a score versus trying to make a swing, capturing what he once had is going to come down to asserting “ownership” over his own game; rather than relying on other people and/or external-circumstances to-help him get where he’s trying to go. After all, golf is an individual game; and no “team format” can make this claim less true.

Cover Image via Twitter