Fantasy Golf Predictions – The 2013 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 BMW Championship

Preview:   We rode the Henrik Stenson train quite a few times this season but going into the Deutsche Bank Championship we opted not to buy his stock simply because he’s been disappointing us…but he proved us wrong with his victory at TPC Boston 2 weeks ago.

We won’t be making that mistake again as we like Stenson’s chances now that he has snatched the No.1 spot in FedExCup points away from Tiger Woods with his victory last Monday.

This week the top 70 on the FedExCup points leaderboard will advance to Conway Farm for a chance to make the Top 30 and play East Lake for the TOUR Championship.

The Course: Conway Farms Golf Club measures 7,216 yards and plays as a par 71. This beautiful course was created on a farmland in Chicago’s North Shore area.  The Tom Fazio design opened its doors in 1991 and has increased in popularity over the last few years. The course played home to some large events such as the 1997 NCAA Division I championship and 1998 U.S. Junior Amateur before making the main stage by hosting the 2009 Western Amateur and 2010 U.S. Mid-Amateur.

Luke Donald is a member of this club and it is said that he played an intricate role in getting the club to become host of this event back when Luke was World No. 1.

Photo by ConwayFarmsGolfClub.org

The Weather at 2013 BMW Championship in Lake Forest, IL (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Sept 12) 76 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 2: Friday (Sept 13) 63 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (Sept 14) 67 degrees, 0% chance of rain, sunny.
• Round 4: Sunday (Sept 15) 69 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-Storms

2012 Results: Rory McIlroy won his second straight FedExCup playoff title at this event last year but has not quite been able to compete at that level again since, which is why we are continuing to stay away from the young Irishman.

In 2012 Rory emerged out of a four-way tie with consecutive birdies and cruised to a two-shot win at a wet Crooked Stick Golf Club. This was a solid run from Rory following his eight-shot win at the PGA Championship giving him 3 wins in 4 events when it mattered most.

Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood tied for second and were unable to keep up with McIlroy as big mistakes cost them both down the stretch.

Notes: We’re riding high on Stenson and Scott this week.  We believe they both will remain hot and cruise through to East Lake.  Tiger Woods doesn’t excite us this week, but we’ve been fooled many times by what we think is a bruised up Woods and turns out to be a stud on the course.

You also can’t rule out Justin Rose and Kuchar who have continued to play great in the FedExCup playoffs.

Lastly, don’t be scared of Phil Mickelson. He always seems to show up to these events and although he’s not in our top five this week, he could easily still win this thing.

Other names we like but not enough to add to this week’s list include Dufner, Day, and Spieth.  Also keep in mind Luke Donald plays this course quite often, so he has a tiny advantage – but not enough in our book.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2013

• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 8/1): Scott disappointed us in his last go around and didn’t stay hot from his Barclays win. His T53 at TPC Boston is his second-worst finish in nine appearances.   The week off is sometimes good for guys like this to get it back together.  Scott is currently riding perhaps his best season ever and we’re sure he’d love to cap it all off by taking a FedExCup champion title back home to Australia.
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 12/1): Rose has had the hot hand as of late and he’s finished under par in all eight rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs. He tied for second at The Barclays and carded a T16 at the Deutsche Bank Championship.  The 2013 US Open winner has what it takes to win this one has been consistently knocking on the door.  This just could this be the event when it swings open for Justin.
• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 15/1): Tiger finally fell out of the top spot in the FedExCup standings with his awful T65 at the Deutsche Bank Championship.  He was not on his game at all on a course where people were scoring everywhere. Tiger wants that top spot back and he can earn it with a strong finish this week. But to do so Tiger is going to have to improve his work on the greens.  Woods ranked 70th in strokes gained-putting at TPC Boston.
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 20/1): Stenson is riding a wave of momentum after his victory at the Deutsche Bank Championship and which marks his fifth top-three finish in six starts. Henrick was also fourth overall in total driving and fifth in adjusted scoring at TPC Boston. We love how this guy is playing right now and we can easily see a back to back winner here.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 23/1): Kuchar fell out of form a bit but had a strong finish with a T4 for his first top 10 at TPC Boston in 10 attempts.  “Kuch” has eight top 10s in 2013 and is currently fourth in FedExCup points – still within that coveted top 5 which allows you to win it all if you win at East Lake. He has a TOUR-high 25 consecutive cuts made and ranks sixth in adjusted scoring.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 30/1): Lefty followed up his T6 at The Barclays with a co-leading 63 in his opening round at TPC Boston, but sank in later rounds to finish at T41. As a result, he slipped to sixth in the FedExCup standings knocking him out of that all-important top 5 spot.  However, Mickelson always seems to surprise and we think he has enough fuel in the tank to squeeze back into the top-5 spot.
• Steve Stricker (Golficity Odds 45/1): Stricker emerged with a solo second at TPC Boston after sitting out the Barclays.  This was Stricker’s third runner-up finish of the season in just 11 starts. He ranks first in par-4 scoring and second in greens hit, adjusted scoring, and the all-around. Steve played great last time out and his putting is right there, so look out for another run from Mr. Stricker.

Last Event’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (2013 Deutsche Bank Championship)

• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 8/1): T65
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 12/1): T53
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 15/1): T41
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 20/1): T27
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 23/1): T13

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 30/1):  MC
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 45/1): T4

(Cover Photo Credit)