Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 American Express

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 American Express

The 2025 American Express Fantasy Preview

Although he didn’t credit it, you wonder how important the fourth round at The Sentry proved in Nick Taylor’s victory at the Sony Open on Sunday.

Overall, it was another humdrum performance in a year full of them from the Canadian, finishing T48 in a field of 59. For Taylor to have missed out on the Presidents Cup, despite winning the Phoenix Open last February, shows just how badly his season petered out.

In that fourth round at Kapalua, Taylor gained +1.80 strokes on the field putting – a very rare moment of positivity with that particular club over the past 12 months. 

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It meant that the Canadian headed across to Waialae with a bit more confidence on the greens, and he was able to parlay that into the win – his fifth on the PGA TOUR – via a playoff against Nicolas Echavarria.

They had been tied on -16 at the end of regulation play on a day in which a dozen or more players had a genuine shot at lifting the trophy; J.J. Spaun and Stephan Jaeger, perhaps, those that missed out most egregiously given their position at the top of the leaderboard deep on Sunday. 

Taylor had chipped in for eagle on the 72nd hole – that always helps, to tie it up with Echavarria, with the pair then both making birdie at the first extra hole. On the second, the Colombian made a three-putt par, whereas Taylor stiffed his approach close to make birdie and extend his fine record in playoffs to 3-0.

The irony of the win was not lost on Taylor, who missed out on what would have been a career-defining moment in 2024 in the Presidents Cup on home soil. But you can’t keep a good man down.

And so it’s onwards we go to The American Express…

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We call that a ONE-TWO punch! 

Nick Taylor’s victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii was nothing short of epic!  After finishing the tournament tied at 16-under-par 264 with Nico Echavarria (another one of our picks), Taylor secured the win by making a clutch birdie on the second playoff hole at Waialae Country Club.

This triumph marked Taylor’s fifth PGA Tour win and won some DFS players a nice chunk of cash. 

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American Express Field

Taylor is one of ten players from inside the OWGR top 30 to tee it up in California.

Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, and Patrick Cantlay are the highest ranked of those, with Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, and Sam Burns also heading to La Quinta.

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Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, and Tony Finau round out that big ten, while defending champion Nick Dunlap – who won here 12 months ago in such remarkable fashion as an amateur –looks to follow in the footsteps of a number of two-time winners of this event. 

Of the sponsor invites, keep an eye on the fantastically-named Blades Brown. The 17-year-old broke a century-old record as the youngest medallist in U.S. Amateur history in 2023… the mark previously set by Bobby Jones, no less.

This Week’s Course Preview

There’s not one, not two, but three host courses to wrap our head around this week.

Each hosts one of the opening three rounds on rotation, before Pete Dye’s Stadium Course takes on exclusive duties for round four.

All three of the layouts are short Par 72s, with Dye’s layout generally the toughest of the trio. In typical Dye fashion, there’s as many as 90 bunkers on the real estate, while water is in play on seven holes.

The Nicklaus Tournament course is also housed at the same PGA West facility as the Stadium Course. Measuring just 7,166 yards for its Par 72, the Golden Bear’s layout provides plenty of birdie opportunities for those who strike the ball well.

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La Quinta Country Club, meanwhile, is even shorter than the Nicklaus Tournament course, with wide fairways and receptive greens – Adam Hadwin once posted a round of 59 here in the American Express.

All three courses have Bermuda greens, and all three are easy enough to score on too… Dunlap won this event 12 months ago with a score of -29.

It’s worth remembering too that the American Express, in time-honored tradition, is a pro-am event, with a host of celebrities and dignitaries in the field across the opening 54 holes, before the pros are left to their own devices on Sunday.

Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA

It’s a typical week in the Californian desert in January: cold at night, warm (ish) by day, with wall-to-wall sunshine.

In fact, all four days of The American Express look set to replicate one another: little chance of rain, with sunny spells and temperatures in the region of 69 degrees.

There’s little wind to speak of too, with 2-4 mph expected all week long.

LA QUINTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from American Express

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It’s interesting that after 54 holes at last year’s edition of The American Express, three of the top four players had played the La Quinta-Nicklaus-Pete Dye rotation.

The anomaly? Nick Dunlap, who made hay from the opposite side of the draw to become the first amateur to win on the PGA TOUR in more than 30 years.

He led by three going into the final round, but his inexperience – and the presence of Sam Burns and Justin Thomas behind him – suggested that Dunlap might not be able to see out the win.

But not a bit of it. The 20-year-old – who coincidentally will turn 21 on Monday – gave himself the ideal birthday present, posting a final round of 70 to win by one from Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Even a double-bogey at the seventh hole would not deny Dunlap, who showed maturity beyond his youthful years to stead the ship before playing the back nine in a bogey-free 34. 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s American Express

The pro-am format, as well as having three different host courses, does not lend itself to easy DFS success at The American Express. But we can use the contests below as a springboard for a good week nonetheless.

• PGA $175k Drive the Green: It’s the perfect contest for lower budget players, with $5 per entry affording the opportunity to play for the $25k jackpot and a host of other handsome prizes.
• GOLF TOUR $20 Winner Take All: It’s an unusual plan of attack, but this $20 contest – which features just ten players – sees the winner take the entire pot, which works out at $175 after DK have taken their rake. If our lineup sparks, we could land the kitty. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for American Express

The rollcall of the most recent winners at The American Express – Dunlap, Jon Rahm, Hudson Swafford, Si-Woo Kim, and Andrew Landry – hardly helps us to begin our handicapping of the field.

Rahm once blasted the ‘piece of s***’ setup for the event, labelling it a ‘putting contest’, but what’s interesting about that list of winners is that, the Spaniard aside, none would be described as an elite putter.

With the presence of amateurs in the field, of course conditions are made easier, but that extends to the greens too – hence why some ordinary flatstick merchants have been able to walk away with the trophy here.

What you do off the tee is seemingly irrelevant given the width of the fairways at all three host venues, so preference is for distance off the peg… although that’s not been an absolute prerequisite, historically, Dunlap, Rahm, and Swafford are all longer than the TOUR average in this regard.

Quality on approach also won’t go amiss in setting up easier birdie chances, while on the greens themselves there’s a chance that even normally-weak putters can thrive on slow and easy-to-read surfaces.

Otherwise, there’s not a huge amount to work with. We can use the Phoenix Open as a guide – both are desert events that have shown some correlations across their leaderboards over the years.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the American Express   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the American Express  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Max Greyserman (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.3, Salary: $9,200)

Since 2005, only four major champions have won The American Express.

The multi-course rotation, the ease of the conditions, and the presence of amateurs and celebrities in the field makes it more difficult for the best players in the world to stamp their authority on this tournament.

And that’s an angle we have to lean into with our fantasy draft, in which we must avoid tying up too much of our salary cap in the big guns. That’s not to say that a Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, or Patrick Cantlay won’t win this week, but the history books suggest that the edge of elite players is not the same in the AMEX as it is elsewhere.

All of which brings us in roundabout fashion to Max Greyserman, a big hitting, birdie-making youngster with an eye on landing his maiden PGA TOUR title.

Since July, he’s finished second in three PGA TOUR outings, so if he hits his irons and wedges well – Greyserman is huge off the tee and nearly always putts well – he could go close again in conditions that will suit.

But will he? Well, he gained +0.24 on approach against a stellar field at The Sentry, which is a good start.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Putting – 2nd
• Birdie Average – 7th
• Driving Distance – 17th

Top Tier Pick #2

Harry Hall (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 68.7, Salary: $8,800)

What a curiosity from Harry Hall at the Sony Open, who managed to contend – eventually finishing T10 – despite losing strokes to the field off the tee and on approach.

His lack of accuracy with driver in hand won’t be punished too readily in California, while his off-week on approach was a rarity for Hall, who improved considerably in that department in 2024.

The Brit ranked inside the PGA TOUR’s top-50 for SG: Putting, Putts Per Round, and Birdie Average last season, which are all solid foundations for success in The American Express.

Key Stats (2024):

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 6th
• Putts Per Round – 9th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 69.0 Salary: $8,700)

When we drafted Nick Taylor as a sleeper pick last week, it was partly due to a strong putting round on Sunday at The Sentry; finally, the Canadian found some positivity with the flatstick.

So how about going two-in-two with Kurt Kitayama, who gained +2.00 on the field putting on Sunday at the Sony Open… a rarity indeed for a player whose woes on the greens, in stark contrast to his elite ball-striking, are well documented.

But look at this too. Kitayama gained +0.14 on the field putting at the ZOZO Championship on his way to a solo fifth finish, so things are just starting to bubble up nicely.

In 2024, Kitayama ranked seventh on the entire PGA TOUR for SG: Tee-to-Green. Once he figures out the putting part, he is a champion in waiting.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Approach – 10th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 16th
• Driving Distance – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Ben Griffin (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 66.8, Salary: $7,800)

With five finishes of T11 or better on the PGA TOUR since April, the penny seems to have dropped for Ben Griffin.

He established himself as an ultra-reliable iron and wedge hitter, setting up masses of birdie looks. And while he wasn’t always able to take them, given that his flatstick cooled down at the end of 2024, the basic building blocks for success at The American Express have often been in place for Griffin.

Extra real estate off the tee will appeal this week, and if he can just combine the best elements of his game together at the same time, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this Bermuda specialist contending for the trophy.

Key Stats (2024):

• Total Birdies – 1st
• SG: Approach – 34th
• SG: Putting – 52nd

Low-Tier Pick

Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 69.8, Salary: $7,600)

Bob Hope, the great American comedian, was the host of his event for many a year in decades bone by, even lending his name to the tournament’s official name.

Jhonattan Vegas won the Bob Hope Classic in 2011, and while the host courses have changed – only La Quinta remains from that vintage, it shows how comfortable Vegas is in the multi-course, pro-am environment.

The Venezuelan’s game appeared to be in fine fettle upon his return at The Sentry. He led a stellar field at Kapalua on approach, gaining +2.81, and but for mediocre returns from his short game, might have improved upon his finish of solo fourth.

As we know, the greens at this trio of Californian courses are far from spicy, so we can surely expect something of an improvement from Vegas’ putting this week.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
• SG: Approach – 22nd
• Birdie Average – 25th

Sleeper Pick for the American Express

Sam Stevens (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.4, Salary: $7,100

By our reckoning, Sam Stevens produced the second-best approach play numbers of his entire PGA TOUR career at the Sony Open last week.

Unfortunately, his putting – such a strong part of his game in 2024 – did not comply, which is why he finished a mere T59. But a guy that ranked 38th on TOUR for SG: Putting in 2024 can surely demand a rapid improvement from himself.

There are reasons to be cheerful, then, if he can sustain his iron and wedge play to anything like the same level. This big-hitting birdie maker could then take full advantage. 

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 17th
• Birdie Average – 34th
• SG: Putting – 38th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the American Express

Justin Lower (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 62.4, Salary: $6,900)

As recently as November, Justin Lower had chances to win not one but two PGA TOUR events.

Instead, he finished with T2 and T5 finishes at the WWT Championship and Bermuda Championship… the latter in particular, with a final round of 72, a huge opportunity missed.

That was in lower-quality company than this field, of course, but that’s not to say that the unique variance and unpredictability of The American Express won’t play into the hands of players like Lower.

Key Stats (2024):

• Birdie Average – 14th
• SG: Putting – 31st
• Proximity to Hole – 34th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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