Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The 2016 John Deere Classic

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 John Deere Classic

The 2016 John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Preview

While some – if not all – of the golfing world’s attention will be on the circus sideshow that the Olympic Games in Rio have become, plenty of the game’s leading lights will head to Silvis, Illinois, for a perennial favorite in the PGA TOUR calendar: the John Deere Classic.

Jordan Spieth was on the balmiest of hot streaks when he won the title here in 2015, coming as it did just three weeks after his US Open triumph, and in doing so he became the second multi-time John Deere Classic champion this decade alongside Steve Stricker, who incredibly converted here three years in a row from 2009 to 2011.  Spieth isn’t defending his title this week, but Stricker is in Illinois alongside a raft of former JDC winners including the bookies’ favorite Zach Johnson (2012), John Senden (2006), Brian Harman (2014) and Sean O’Hair (2005).  Yep, it’s that kind of tournament.

This event was originally known as the Quad Cities Open following its foundation in 1971, and was played at the Crow Valley Country Club in Davenport before moving to the Oakwood Country Club in 1975.  It stayed there for some 25 years before finding a new home at TPC Deere Run.  This stretch was designed by D.A Weibring and sits on an old Native American settlement (there aren’t many courses that can say that), and in recent years it has become synonymous with producing low-scoring affairs: the last five winners of the John Deere Classic have posted 72 hole totals ranging from -19 to -22.  Spieth fired a 61 on Saturday last year, and that kind of score isn’t unusual: Scot Brown shot 61 and Paul Goydos cam in with an incredible 59 back in 2010.  That gives a good indication of the kind of player we should be looking to draft this week.

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 track playing at around 7,268 yards, which is pretty short (for PGA TOUR standards) and explains why the likes of Johnson, Stricker and Harman have been able to win here.  Those guys are solid tee-to-green merchants who tend to find their way to the dance floor in a timely fashion, and if the historical stats are anything to go by that remains the best way to tame this course.  Nine of the last ten winners here have ranked inside the top 30 for Driving Accuracy (Spieth has been the only exception, you might not be surprised to learn), and each of the last ten champions have ranked inside or just outside the top 30 for Greens in Regulation.

You will probably be less shocked to read that Spieth putted the lights out here in 2015, ranking seventh for Strokes Gained: Putting, so ability with the flatstick is key as you might expect on average-sized Bentgrass greens that are running at approximately 11 on the stimpmeter.  And finally, a red hot short game – Spieth came in 16th for Proximity and 32nd for Scrambling – once again appears to be of ultra-importance.

As far as scoring goes, well, you probably know the drill on Par 71s by now: three short enough to attack in two Par 5s give ample scoring opportunities, particularly the first up on the front nine, which Spieth eagled twice in 2015.  All in all, the golden child played the long holes at -8 and bagged 15 birdies across the Par 4s in his win, so we’d better draft picks who are in decent scoring form right now.

The cannier golf daily fantasy managers amongst you will have noticed another key trend that is worthy of further examination as well: both Stricker and Johnson have won the tournament formerly known as the Crowne Plaza International at Colonial in the past, while Spieth was the victor in its successor the Dean & Deluca Invitational earlier this year.  Clearly, prior form at Colonial is a handy guide here.

Naturally, a weakened field due to Olympic commitments (and those who fancied a week of R&R) leaves DFS managers with slightly skewed salaries to deal with, and a top three of Zach Johnson, Jon Rahm and Kevin Na kind of sums up what to expect here.  Not to worry though, there is plenty of sleeper picks to create value in your line-up this week.

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The 2016 John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Jerry Kelly – Vegas Odds 50/1 – What a red hot return to form Jerry Kelly enjoyed this weekend at the Travelers Championship, and how timely it was heading into one of his favorite events of the year.

The 49-year-old finished a solitary stroke behind eventual winner Russell Knox placing second in Connecticut, and that followed a rather inconsistent streak in which he finished 19th at THE PLAYERS Championship, then he failed to make the weekend in his next four starts before T26 at the Canadian Open suggested he had rediscovered that super-smooth ball striking touch.  The silver medal in the Travelers on Sunday confirms it.

Kelly has made 13/19 cuts this season and boasts 91 career top ten finishes to his name; two of which have come in the John Deere Classic (fourth in 2013, third in 2014).  His record at Deere Run is outstanding, with six cuts made in seven starts and four on the spin since 2011.

A magician from within 200 yards of the pin, ranking third on tour for Scrambling and tenth for Proximity to Hole from Fairway as he does, if Kelly’s putter is hot this week – as it was in Connecticut – then he has a chance of repeating the dose.

Chris Stroud – Vegas Odds 60/1 – Having gone seven-for-seven across a nine-year span at Deere Run, Chris Stroud is a reliable mid-ranger to have on board this week.

The pick of the bunch in this event has been a fifth last year for the Texan, which suggests he has really gotten to grips with Deere Run’s unique set-up.  And here’s a guy who loves Colonial too: 14th in 2014, 7th in 2013, 13th in 2012 and a very handy 13th in the Dean & Deluca Invitational back in May.

Earlier in the 2016 campaign Stroud had a few problems with making the weekend, but since a bizarre patch in May when he withdrew from THE PLAYERS Championship after a first round 75, before getting disqualified from the Byron Nelson for allegedly missing his tee time, he has missed just one cut of six.

A skilled putter (ranking 55th on tour for Strokes Gained: Putting), Stroud is also pretty good at shooting low on the Par 4s (64th for Birdies or Better Leaders), so with plenty of chances of small numbers here we are happy to have such a talent on side.

Spencer Levin – Vegas Odds 66/1 – If you’re looking for a sleeper pick that is bubbling up rather nicely at the minute then Spencer Levin, with back-to-back top 20 finishes, looks a smart investment.

He took T14 at the Canadian Open to signal a return to form, and last week’s T11 at the Travelers Championship cements the notion that Levin is striking the ball as well as he has done all season right now.  Add in a top five return at the Byron Nelson in May and you get a flavor of what he is capable of achieving.

Levin is still a young man having just turned 32, but he hasn’t quite yet lived up to his potential in a pro career dating back a decade.  Just three top 10s in more than 200 starts is hardly the stuff of DFS legend.

But statistically at least, all of the pieces of the jigsaw are in place.  Levin has made his last four cuts at Deere Run with three top 40 finishes in among them, and he boasts the kind of all-round game that should do damage this week: he ranks 70th on tour for Total Driving, 60th for Scrambling and 43rd for Proximity to Hole.  To emphasize the point, he is a very respectable 39th in the world for Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Conditions look well set for Levin the Californian to go well.

Hudson Swafford – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Swafford has become something of a DFS dream of late: nine consecutive cuts made reveal one of the most consistent performers on tour, and while his final results might not suggest as such here is a guy who can really shoot low when the mood takes him (he ranks inside the tour top 50 for Par 4 and Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders).

A missed cut here in 2014 was resolved by a 35th last year, and he has only finished outside the top 40 once in his last six starts, which suggests plenty of points are there to be had.

There won’t be many better drivers on show this week than Swafford (he ranks fourth for Total Driving), and with an agreeable iron game (23rd for Proximity) meshing rather nicely with a happy knack with the flatstick (62nd for Strokes Gained: Putting), there’s no reason to suggest that he won’t finish in the money once again.

Bud Cauley – Vegas Odds 125/1 – Bud is someone that you might call a ‘computer pick’ this week given his statistical fit for Deere Run, despite a string that reads 52-MC-72 in three visits here.

He’s playing some rather tidy golf at the moment, and while the halcyon days of May seem to be behind him (he finished T4 at Byron Nelson) three cuts made in three events, including a best of 31st at the Barbasol Championship, reveal a player heading to Illinois in better touch than usual.

Then there’s that handy proclivity for success at Colonial that we have spoken about, with the Daytona Beach pro returning a pair of top 20s there in 2013 and 2014, and a data-led penchant to make the eyes water: fifth for Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 22nd for Scrambling, 44th for Total Driving and second for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders suggests that Cauley should have plenty of chances to make low numbers and occupy the business end of the leaderboard.

With four of his five missed cuts this season coming in May or earlier, let’s hope that Bud can secure himself another weekend of frontline golf and another place in the money.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 John Deere Classic here.

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