Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Honda Classic

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for The Honda Classic

The Honda Classic Sleeper Preview

There will undoubtedly be some relief to leave behind the Californian swing behind; as beautiful a place as it is, the weather conditions simply weren’t conducive to the levels of flawless golf we expect on the PGA TOUR.

So now we head to Florida this week for the Honda Classic, and while conditions aren’t going to be perfect by any means – rain and winds are predicted on Thursday and Sunday – at least there should be an absence of suspensions and delays that can so often ruin a golf tournament.

Not that Dustin Johnson will mind.  The new world number one enjoyed the better half of the draw but was still head-and-shoulders above anyone else to tee off at Riviera, as a margin of victory of five shots proves.  A win at one of his favorite courses has been a long time coming for DJ, and he will be delighted to have that monkey off his back.

Johnson will have a well-earned rest this week as the top three from the 2016 Honda Classic – Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, and Justin Thomas – look set to lock horns once again.  It was the Australian that prevailed 12 months ago to lift the trophy, and that was his first victory after switching from the belly to traditional putting stroke.

That trio will be joined by an eclectic cast that is heavy on Europeans; no surprise given that seven of the last ten winners of this event have come from outside of the US.  Thomas Pieters will look to build on his outstanding showing at Riviera, while journeyman pros such as Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald, and Padraig Harrington will be desperate to get back into the winner’s circle.  They will be joined by a selection of Europe’s Ryder Cup team, including Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Masters champion Danny Willett.

If they are to dethrone Scott then they will need to tame this PGA National course in Palm Beach.  At 7,140 yards for its Par 70 things are a little tight off the tee, but in the past that hasn’t seemed to matter too much: it’s hitting the smaller-than-average greens that is the real key here.  In his winning run Scott hit 76% of greens but only two-thirds of fairways, so strong iron and approach play is a key weapon this week.

The Champion course at PGA National was originally designed by the legendary George and Tom Fazio, who were renowned for their devilish architecture, and that was backed by something of an overhaul from Jack Nicklaus in 1990; who created the infamous trio of holes known as The Bear Trap from 15 through 17.

So how hard is PGA National?  In the past six renewals of the Honda Classic, only one champion has reached double digits under par as their winning score.

This has been, historically, an excellent tournament to bet on if you enjoy getting behind an outsider or two.  The likes of Harrington (2015), Russell Henley (2014), Rory Sabbatini (2011), and Camilo Villegas (2010) have all won here in recent times, and none of those were particularly well fancied at the time of their victory.

As if to emphasize the point, Harrington played in 21 PGA TOUR events in 2015, missed the cut in 12, and only finished inside the top-20 twice!  It seems like PGA National can be a place that brings out the best in people.

With that in mind, here are five long-odds picks who should go well this week:

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The Honda Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Honda Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Ollie Schniederjans – Vegas Odds 66/1 – The 23-year-old has banked top-10s at Torrey Pines and Riviera this season already, so we know that he can handle the more difficult tracks, and that experience should bode well for his third visit to the PGA National.  He missed the cut last year but finished T9 as a rookie in 2015, and so at this kind of price he has to be worth a go.  Schniederjans was one of the best tee-to-green exponents on show last week with +1.74 strokes gained T2G and +1.08 in approach, and it confirms our suspicion that this is a young man with an excellent short game.  If he could get his putter going he could well claim the first PGA TOUR win of his career sooner rather than later.

Luke Donald – Vegas Odds 70/1 – The Englishman loves playing at PGA National, and so it has been refreshing to see him play himself into some kind of form over the past few weeks.  A T23 at Pebble Beach was backed by a T17 at Riviera last time out, and those are nice numbers for a guy who has his name inscribed on the Honda Classic trophy and who recorded back-to-back top-10s here in 2014 and 2015.  Statistically Donald is nothing special but sometimes players just fit courses, regardless of what the data is telling you.

Graham DeLaet – Vegas Odds 80/1 – With 28 top-10s to his name, you could argue that the Canadian is long overdue for his first PGA TOUR win, and perhaps it will come in an event like this which has a fairly open feel to it.  His current form is certainly in place anyway with a T9 and T17 in his last pair of starts, and encouraging showings at the Sony Open (T7 in 2016) suggests he should be well suited to breezy, Bermuda tests.  His form at PGA National is mixed, although a T9 in 2013 is a nice indicator of potential.

Scott Brown – Vegas Odds 100/1 – There are some nice trends following Scott Brown into this week, including a T2 at Riviera following a T10 in this event 12 months ago.  A T7 at the Valspar Championship last year confirms the 35-year-old’s love of playing golf on this side of the country, and why not: he is an excellent wind-exposed player.  He’s another, like Donald, who is of little interest statistically, but when form and course history collide occasionally magic things happen.

Padraig Harrington – Vegas Odds 140/1 – When betting on Vegas odds it’s no good backing players who look the part but who you’re not convinced will win: Stewart Cink and Martin Flores tick that box this week.  Instead, it is smart to put your money on players who COULD win, but could also flop dramatically.  Step forward Padraig Harrington, who won here in 2015 despite displaying no signs of form whatsoever previously.  The Irishman hasn’t pulled up any trees this season either, to be honest, although there has been evidence of that magical touch around the green.  A T39 last week, with an opening round of 67, at least suggests signs of life.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The Honda Classic here.

Cover photo via Instagram