Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – AT&T Byron Nelson 2017

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the AT&T Byron Nelson

AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview

Just occasionally, this beautiful game of golf has a habit of surprising you. THE PLAYERS Championship, played at the terrifically tough TPC Sawgrass, is commonly referred to as the unofficial fifth major, such is the heritage and the complexity of lifting the trophy.

We, like most, suspected that one of the world’s finest players would win the tournament as a consequence of the above, and so it was more-than-slightly eyebrow raising to see a Sunday shootout between Si-Woo Kim, Ian Poulter, and Louis Oosthuizen unfold.

The Korean has missed seven cuts this season and withdrawn from four events through injury, and while his skillset is abundantly clear – he won the Wyndham Championship last year remember – 2017 has been a year to forget for the youngster so far.

Until now.

He showed tremendous temperament to fire a round of 69 with the pressure mounting – on the day, only Dustin Johnson and Brendan Steele shot lower.  That’s the mark of a champion, but don’t feel bad if you didn’t draft Si-Woo: his form heading into the event read 22-MC-WD-48-49-WD!  He barely appeared on the shortlist for the majority.

This week we’re heading back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson, another event which has been particularly hard to second guess over the years.  Sergio Garcia is the defending champion – that’s easy enough to believe, but former winners here include Rory Sabbatini (2009), Brendan Todd (2014), and Steven Bowditch (2015).

Can we expect another unexpected name on the trophy this week?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from THE PLAYERS Championship

Given his aforementioned recent form we’re pretty certain most lineups did not contain Si Woo Kim last week and if you we’re one of the fortunate lucky guessers who did take the 21 year old, then bravo to you.

It puzzled many the likes of Kim and Poulter finished so well at the challenging TPC Sawgrass while so many fantasy studs were kept from cracking the Top 10.

Despite six of seven made cuts, our men faded late in the week and Francesco Molinari remained our only highlight with his eighteen birdies and 80 fantasy points.  Meanwhile, our favorite for the week, Rory McIlory, clearly continued to struggle with some lingering back pain, for which he’ll undergo an MRI this week.

 
What can you say, it was a tough week for guys like DJ, McIlroy, and Jason Day.  None of the big guns came to play last week and lots of rosters were busted.

We simply shake off the week and move onto the next contest.

2017 AT&T Byron Nelson Field

So, he is mortal after all.  Dustin Johnson’s outrageous run of top-five finishes came to an end at THE PLAYERS, although it’s telling that an ‘off week’ for the US Open champion is a T12 finish in which he shoots Sunday’s best round.

DJ has a good record around this week’s TPC Four Seasons track, and so he will be looking to get back into the mix this week.

He will be joined in Texas by native Jordan Spieth, who won the Dean & Deluca Invitational in the Lone Star State about a year ago, along with Masters winner and defending champion here, Sergio Garcia, plus a trio of other major winners in Jason Day, Jimmy Walker, and Charl Schwartzel.

There will be plenty of local interest this week, with Beau Hossler and Robby Shelton both Texas bred and Paul Everest, the venue’s Director of Golf, also teeing up!

This Week’s Course Preview

This is the last time that TPC Four Seasons will host this event after a 35 year run – next year it will move to Trinity Forest GC in Dallas.

A Par 70 track at 7,166 yards, TPC Four Seasons was initially designed by Jay Morrish and Byron Nelson before a full overhaul in 2007 courtesy of D.A. Weibring and Steve Wolford.

The Bentgrass greens are large, undulating and run at an ordinary 11 on the stimpmeter, while the redesign a decade ago brought into play plenty more water features.

Given its short yardage, TPC Four Seasons is renowned for being a ‘less than driver’ course, with the average drive length 12 months ago a paltry (by modern standards) 280.6 yards.  The fairways are of an average width and are Bermudagrass in construction.

Weather Forecast for Irving, Texas

The long-range forecast for Irving isn’t great unfortunately, with strong winds and scattered thunderstorms expected.

These things are always prone to changing of course, but for now there appears to be a huge advantage in the favor of the Thursday AM/Friday PM wave.  The early wave have lighter winds and calm conditions to enjoy on Thursday morning before the afternoon sees winds of 17mph and a chance of rain of 87%.

On Friday the picture is unsettled throughout the day, with no particular favoritism either way.

The weekend forecast is equally as bleak although the good news is that Sunday appears to be the best of the bunch with average wind speeds of 8 mph and only the occasional shower.

As always, stay tuned for the latest forecasts for a more accurate view.

Last Year’s Results from AT&T Byron Nelson

It will be remembered for the year that Sergio Garcia became the first player to win twice at Four Seasons, but the key takeaway away from the Byron Nelson 12 months ago has to be the capitulation of Brooks Koepka.

He led by three heading into the final round, and was going steadily until back-to-back birdies at 14 and 15 opened the door to the Spaniard, who himself twice found the drink on the back nine.

Koepka had a birdie putt at 18 to secure victory but that curled agonizingly wide, and his miserable afternoon was complete when his drive on the first playoff hole also suffered a watery grave.  Given his proclivity for finding the drink at Sawgrass last week, that is something he will be desperate to eradicate from his game.

Garcia held his nerve, as all great champions do, to make par and land his ninth PGA TOUR title.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21_i59NDFqc[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Byron Nelson this Week

The AT&T Byron Nelson isn’t a frontline PGA TOUR event by any means, but it has to be said that DraftKings has really come to the party with their slate of contests this week.

There are nine separate contests with a minimum prize pot of $50,000, which suggests that the big sharks will be well spread…offering up opportunities for others.

• PGA $450k Up and Down: With a buy in of $36, this 14.4k team contest is surely going to generate plenty of interest.  There’s a top prize of $50k for the winner, while the first 35 home will all trouser at least $1000.
• PGA $175k Fore: At the other end of the price scale is this contest, which offers another generous prize pot but for just a $4 investment.  Finish in the top 150 to land a minimum prize of $100.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the AT&T Byron Nelson

The numbers that Sergio Garcia produced here 12 months ago suggest that once again we are in for an all-round ball strikers test.

Unusually for TPC Four Seasons, giving the ball a whack off the tee was crucial: Garcia ranked T4 for this metric, while the trio ahead of him – Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Broos Koepka – finished T12, T12 and second respectively.  So giving the ball a bunt will be important this week, especially with strong winds aiding and destroying in equal measure.

As you would expect, the Spaniard was solid from tee to green – gaining +1.944 of his strokes on the field here – with an outstanding GIR stat of 79.17% dancefloors found.

But Garcia only found 57.14% of fairways for a Driving Accuracy rank of T43, which would suggest his scrambling was exceptional.  It had to be, because his Putting Average rating of 41st is nothing to write home about!

So strong approach play and scrambling will be important in blustery Irving, as will giving it some humpty from the tee.

And your picks had better play the Par 5s well.  There’s only two of them in this Par 70 stretch of course, but Garcia played these at -6…almost half his final score.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Dustin Johnson (Odds: 6/1, FPPG: 86.2, GPFP: 112.06 Salary: $12,500)

It is widely accepted that Dustin Johnson doesn’t enjoy playing at TPC Sawgrass, and yet a T12 represented his best effort there in some time.  He finished with a bang as well: his round of -4 was Sunday’s best.

So what do we expect to happen this week at a course he has previously gone 12-8-7 at in his last three trips?  An improvement on those numbers, that’s for sure.

There’s no badge of honor in drafting DJ – he is clearly the best player on the planet right now, but at an event like Byron Nelson, where we have come to expect the unexpected, it makes sense to draft a player who you would put your car keys on making the cut and probably finishing top-ten as a minimum.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 56.3, GPFP: 69.19 Salary: $10,200)

While his return at Sawgrass might not suggest as much, Koepka is playing well enough at the moment to get into contention again here at Four Seasons.

His tee-to-green game has been outstanding in the past month or so, and to battle back to finish T16 in THE PLAYERS after so readily finding the water is testament to his increasing mental strength.

Will there be some kind of hangover from his Four Seasons collapse a year ago?  Possibly, but the good news is that he is striking the ball so cleanly at present that it may not be a factor.

One of the longest drivers on tour, the 26-year-old can make the most of his opportunities on the Par 5s and is putting as well as he has ever done.  If the mental side of his game is right, there is no limits to Koepka’s potential.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 8th
• Birdie Average – 11th
• SG: Putting – 14th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Bud Cauley (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 57.4, GPFP: 53.39 Salary: $7,800)

Make the most of being able to draft Cauley at such an agreeable price…this is a guy whose first PGA TOUR title is coming sooner or later.

The 27-year-old has 16 top-ten finishes to his name already, and one of those came here 12 months ago when he tied for fourth.  Remarkably, three of those other top-10s have come in his last trio of starts: T9 at the RBC Heritage, T10 at the Texas Open, and T5 at the Zurich Classic.  How’s that for a converging trend!

You won’t find many better players on the approach from 125-175 yards, and if that short stick can get dialed in then another top-ten finish – as a minimum – is not crazy talk at all.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 4th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 12th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 44th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Sung Kang (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 62.6, GPFP: 69.50 Salary: $7,400)

With fellow Korean, Si-Woo Kim, winning a rather prestigious trophy last week, you wonder if his fellow countrymen, such as the in-form Sung Kang, will be inspired accordingly?

As mentioned, Kang is in white hot form at the moment with four decent showings in his last four strokeplay events: top-tens at the Houston Open and Texas Open confirm his love of playing in this neck of the woods, while T11 at the RBC Heritage shows he can handle classic ball-striker’s tracks.  We’re even happy enough with a T30 at THE PLAYERS Championship with three rounds of level par or better.

His all-round game from tee to green is in good shape, and so let’s take a chance on a Korean double this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 27th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 35th
• Greens in Regulation – 35th

Low-Tier Pick:

Smylie Kaufman (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 39.5, GPFP: 31.57 Salary: $7,100)

After an abject start to the season, Kaufman is bubbling up quite nicely at present.  We can ignore his campaign stats as he has only come alive in the past couple of weeks: the Wells Fargo was the catalyst, where he finished T5, and it’s always pleasing to see that followed up a week later with another good performance; this time T12 at THE PLAYERS.

The game moves so fast that it is easy to forget that Kaufman has already bagged his first PGA TOUR title (Shriners in 2016) and led The Masters in the same year, so clearly this is a young man with bags of potential.

Will his power game get the better of TPC Four Seasons?

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 17th
• Going for the Green – 17th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 41st

Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Marc Leishman (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 66.1, GPFP: 75.30 Salary: $7,800)

On paper at least the nature of TC Four Seasons should be right up his alley, but Leishman’s form here doesn’t necessarily reflect the fact: MC-MC-3-12-3-MC-12-8 is about as inconsistent as it gets.

But the key takeaway is that when Leishman hits his traps here, he does so with aplomb.

Since winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March the Aussie’s form has tailed off somewhat, but there are caveats: The Masters is rarely a true representation of current form, he opened up with rounds of 68 and 69 at the RBC Heritage and missed the cut at Sawgrass with a not disastrous score of +4.  There are no demons to confront here.

A long hitter that excels on approach and when scrambling, Leishman can go birdie-mad when his putter is hot – in a tournament like this, that could make all the difference.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 125-150 Yards – 1st
• SG: Putting – 16th
• Scoring Average – 16th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Billy Hurley III (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 53.6, GPFP: 42.86 Salary: $6,900)

There are some players who, as we know, perform better on some surfaces more than they do others, and so when we look at Billy Hurley’s seasonal form we must take into consideration this is a guy who loves putting on Bentgrass.

He’s an excellent low-cost pick too thanks to his consistency: BHIII has made 11 cuts from 16 starts, with six of those being top-30s.  The picks are clearly the T15 at Shriners and T8 at the Wells Fargo just a couple of weeks ago.

Three rounds of par or better at THE PLAYERS confirms that Hurley is striking the ball rather nicely at present, and for a player whose reasonable return at Four Seasons reads 41-MC-16 that’s good enough for us to pull the trigger.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting: 27th
• Total Birdies: 36th
• SG: Approach the Green: 42nd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup I

Sample Lineup II  (Alternative: Lower Priced Top Tier)

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.30%” bar_text=”14 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.80%” bar_text=”35 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”38.10%” bar_text=”64 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.80%” bar_text=”5 out of 24 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”8.30%” bar_text=”2 out of 24 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.40″ bar_text=”125 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram