BETS: Matchups, Faders, Straight Up Winners, & More // Waste Management Phoenix Open

There’s a lot to break down from Patrick Reed’s win at Torrey Pines. Unless you live under a rock, you are aware of what happened with Patrick Reed’s embedded ball controversy. I’m not a Patrick Reed fan, and I hate the way it went down, but at the end of the day it is such a gray area because the spotter told him it didn’t bounce.

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Now, I still have no idea (or I do because of his past) why Patrick Reed would pick up the ball before a rules official even got there. Nonetheless, he’s still really phenomenal at golf, so I wish things like this didn’t happen. Also, my best bet on the Pin High Podcast was Patrick Reed Top 30, so I didn’t exactly sweat that one out.

As for the success of this article last week, other than our winner, Corey Conners, being an absolute bust because of his short game, we did pretty well. The matchup bets went 1-0-1, bringing my record in 2021 to 5-2-1.

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As predicted, Jon Rahm contended and the Top 10 bet on him was a winner. And finally, the lock of the week winning streak has officially started with Max Homa easily making the cut, and even finishing within the top 20 for a cherry on top. The lock of the week has won the last 3 weeks, so how about the Golficity readers start believing in me.

To Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Scottie Scheffler (+5000)

Scottie Scheffler was doing Scottie Scheffler things last week in San Diego. He started on the North Course on Thursday, posting a 7 under 65, only to shoot 7 over on the South Course on Friday to miss the cut by one. But this week’s course out in Phoenix is no challenge like the South Course at Torrey Pines, so I expect Scheffler, who’s so good off the tee (13th SG: off the tee, 18th in driving accuracy), to give it a run for the trophy at 50/1 odds.

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To Finish Top 10 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Justin Thomas (+110)
I don’t think it’s a hot take to think that Justin Thomas has a fantastic chance to contend this week, or any week for that matter, but this strategy worked last week with Jon Rahm and I’m here to bring you winners.

He posted a top 3 finish last year, and despite recent controversy, he still is incredibly efficient off the tee, as well as the most elite approach player on TOUR. There’s going to be plenty of accessible hole locations this week, and the par 5’s will be reachable in two, so look for JT to contend, and possibly even win with those +775 odds.

To Finish Top 20 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Corey Conners (+275)

I really hate to put Conners in this slot after he disappointed us last week, but the weakness in his game will not be nearly as highlighted at TPC Scottsdale as it was at Torrey Pines. I’m going to give him one more chance to impress us before he gets sent to the do not play card.

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Two Matchup Picks

Rickie Fowler (-125) over Brooks Koepka

Brian Harman (-150) over Cameron Champ

Lock of the Week: Will Zalatoris Top 40 (-150)

I’ll never give anything out that exceeds the odds of -150, and I don’t normally like to even go that high, but Will Zalatoris is turning into an absolute machine. He has insane ball striking stats, and he’s coming off of a T7 last week. He’s matching what all the young studs on TOUR are doing: ball striking and hitting the ball a mile, and I love it. Lock it in.

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The stretch of golf we have coming up includes Pebble Beach, Riviera, a WGC event, the Arnold Palmer, Bay Hill, and the Bear Trap at PGA National. Wow. So settle in, and enjoy what’s going to be a great few months of golf.

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