Betting Preview: The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

The Course

If you read my first look yesterday, you’ll already know that this week represents a new challenge for the players teeing it up in Abu Dhabi. For the first time since its inception in 2006, this tournament travels to a new venue in Yas Links, designed by American Kyle Phillips.

That means that the obvious picks this week might not be so obvious.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by DP World Tour (@dpworldtour)

The Obvious Picks

The previous winners list is a who’s who of top talent. Tyrell Hatton won last year, Lee Westwood in 2020, Shane Lowry, the 2019 Open winner, won here in 2019 before that major victory, and Tommy Fleetwood won back to back in 2017 and 2018.

Rory McIlroy has also traditionally done well in Abu Dhabi and the Middle East, coming up short to Collin Morikawa in the DP World Championship in November after getting this awful break on 15 coming down the stretch (see below). We all remember what he did to his shirt after that too.

Some times you can be too accurate…

An awful break for @McIlroyRory on 15.#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/nGHdWSrprD

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 21, 2021

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing any of the names above, but with short prices ranging from 7/1 to 25/1, I believe the value lies elsewhere. Another factor to bear in mind this week (and every week) is the weather.

The Weather

Winds in the mid 20 km/h region are forecast for Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. The outlier is Friday, where winds closer to 50 km/h are expected. This throws up the possibility of a draw bias, where players get to go out before the wind gets really bad, so keep an eye out for the draw too.

That said, the wind being up favours us taking on some of the big hitters as there’s one extra variable that can swing the tournament in our favour.

Sam Horsfield (1.25pts e/w @ 50/1)

Two time European Tour winner Sam Horsfield has been on my radar for quite a while, and he reminds me in many ways of Rory McIlroy. He has some way to go to match Rory’s achievements, but there’s enough about Sam Horsfield to warrant me selecting him this week.

His driving, when it’s good, is where I draw most of my parallels to Rory, and although it can get erratic at times, this week’s links course will require a balanced approach. Driver will be needed at times, but the course’s 10 par 4s average 432 yards and will favour good iron play from tee and fairway.

Sam is a good iron player and ranked first on the DP World Tour in 2021 for strokes gained approach, gaining an average of 1 stroke per round over his 68 rounds last year. He ranked 27th for distance and if he can find the right balance between his iron play and driver, he poses a real threat on every hole.

Course management will obviously be key, but at 50/1 I’m more than happy to ride Horsfield this week in Abu Dhabi.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by Sam Horsfield (@samhorsfield96)

Danny Willett (0.75pts e/w @ 80/1)

After donning the green jacket in 2016 at the Masters, Willett went on to win the Dubai Desert Classic in the same year, the DP World Tour Championship in 2018, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in 2019 and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2021.

This is proof that Danny has incredible pedigree in big tournaments. Why then is Willett 80/1 I hear you ask? In spite of his incredible ability and temperament, Danny can have extended periods where he struggles. At the beginning of the 2018 season he had 9 missed cuts and 1 withdrawal in his first 12 tournaments. In early 2021 he also tested positive with Covid, had a wisdom tooth removed, had appendicitis and had a hernia removed.

That said, what’s left of Danny Willett is still very good and with multiple wins already in the Middle East combined with his win in the Alfred Dunhill this past October, Danny Willett represents a good bet. It’s worth noting too that the Alfred Dunhill features the Kingsbarns course, also designed by Kyle Phillips.

Willett fought off Shane Lowry and Tyrell Hatton on that Sunday in October. Let’s hope he can repeat the feat this week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by Danny Willett (@danny.willett)

Justin Harding (0.5pts e/w @ 100/1)

Another player I think is worth taking a look at this week is South African Justin Harding. Like Sam Horsfield, he’s also won twice on the DP World Tour. His first victory came in the Middle East (a plus for this week) when he won the 2019 Qatar Masters and he won again on Tour last year at the Kenya Open.

Although it was in a limited field due to Covid, I was impressed watching Harding play well in the South African Open Championship in December. After 3 solid round he was leading by 4 shots, only to shoot a final round 77 to finish tied 6th in the end. Hence the 100/1 price tag about him here.

That effort wasn’t a capitulation, rather a series of unfortunate events and with that little bit of form coming in here plus pedigree in the Middle East, Justin Harding will hopefully make it all look easy with a win this week at 100/1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by Justin Harding (@hackharding)

Your Picks

If you are having a bet this week, the very best of luck. Is there anyone else you fancy who we haven’t named above? Please do let us know in the comments.

Odds

The odds quoted are at the time of writing. Please shop around for the best prices and place terms for you.

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Cover Image Via Instagram