European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2018 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

2018 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Fantasy Preview

After completing its winter duties in South Africa, the European Tour moves onto the Middle East this week for a stint we like to call the ‘Sunshine Swing.’

Perhaps it should be renamed the ‘Dollar Sign Swing,’ as a purse of $3,000,000 this week’s event, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, has a persuasive effect on some of the finest players in the world.

It’s certainly why Dustin Johnson is making a rare appearance in a European Tour event, and presumably the reason why Rory McIlroy makes his log-awaited return from injury too.

Dustin Johnson of the United States celebrates on the 18th green…

Dustin Johnson of the United States celebrates on the 18th green after winning during the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club on January 7,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

That duo will be joined by a stellar cast including the red hot Justin Rose, defending champion and Rolex Cup winner Tommy Fleetwood, former British Open victor Henrik Stenson, the ever consistent Matt Kuchar and course specialist Martin Kaymer, plus a collection of outstanding talents from across the globe.

The assignment facing them this week is the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, which boasts a lengthy Par72 track measuring some 7,583 yards. It is long and flat with plenty of water and sand lurking to gobble up any errant balls, and with the wind looking unpredictably breezy this week in the region there could be plenty that fall foul of the hazards.

That said, this is still a tamable track as evidenced by Fleetwood (-17), Fowler (-16) and Stal (-19) all going low in their winning efforts these past three years.

The greens here are Bermuda, so plenty will feel right at home, with the fairways of seashore Paspalum build, and with a stroke index of 71.19 last year it is no surprise to learn that many of the world’s best players are able to take this layout to the cleaners.

So what does it take? Quite simply: hit greens….lots of them. Eight of the last eleven winners here have ranked inside the top-10 for Greens in Regulation, and while we know that stat can be a tad misleading clearly giving yourself plenty of par breaking opportunities is key.

And we’re willing to put a premium on long, straight driving too. The last two champions, Fleetwood and Rickie Fowler, ranked ninth and sixth for Driving Accuracy and 15th and 27th for Driving Distance respectively. Fowler’s DD figure looks surprisingly low, actually, but we know he can comfortably hit the ball 320+ yards so we’re willing to say that keeping the ball in play, as far down the fairway as you can find, is essential.

So who are the smart picks in Abu Dhabi this week? Let’s have a look.

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This Week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Fantasy Picks

Dustin Johnson – $11,800 – Can you afford not to pick the world number one, the best player on the planet, the man who won last time out and who finished second at this course 12 months ago?

Of course, drafting the top-salaried player is always a risk, but there are so many upsides to DJ when compared to his closest competitors that we simply have to get involved. For instance, Rory McIlroy is just $200 cheaper despite not having played competitive golf since October. Yes, his course form is outstanding, but why risk the unknown factors that the Irishman brings to the table when Johnson is in such ominously imperious form?

Justin Rose, just $400 cheaper than the world number one, hasn’t played the course since 2015.

So you see, backing Johnson is a expensive but necessary play, and one that should at least give gamers plenty of bang for their buck. Let’s face it: he’s the most likely winner this week.

Martin Kaymer – $9,100 – At roughly the same price point you will find Martin Kaymer and Tommy Fleetwood; two players whose careers have gone in polar opposite directions of late.

If you directly compare the two you would argue that Fleetwood has by far the better chance of winning here given that he is now a proven champion following a glittering 2017. But course form of 1-MC-MC-19-MC-MC is an obvious dilemma, whereas Kaymer’s 4-16-3-31-6 return has stayed solid even in the midst of his issues.

Oh, and did we mention that the German’s run here between 2008-11 read 1-1-2-1?

The desert swing has come at a great time for Kaymer as he plots a route back into the world’s top 50 players; a strong run over the next few weeks will make a huge difference to his standing in the game.

We’re inclined to suggest his form is strong enough to mount a challenge here, after Kaymer finished fifth at the Nedbank Challenge and T17 at the DP World Tour Championship towards the end of 2017.

Haotong Li – $8,300 – When the field is as high quality as this one, we have to draft players who can live with the fierce pace that the likes of DJ, McIlroy and Rose are likely to set.

We’ve no qualms in drafting Haotong Li then, the young Chinese ace who looks ready to win plenty more titles in 2018.

The key asset to his game is his almost flawless ball striking; something which led to him to third place at the British Open last year.

His straight hitting was also in evidence when finishing fourth at the Nedbank Challenge and T13 at the DP World Tour Championship in his most recent strokeplay starts, and while this is his first start at Abu Dhabi the Chinaman has already delivered some excellent results in the desert.

There is an unusual correlation between this tournament and the Open de France; two countries that are literally thousands of miles apart. But Tommy Fleetwood, Martin Kaymer and Pablo Larrazabal have won both tournaments and stacks of players have recorded top-10s in them as well. For reference, Li finished T7 in France last year, and so there is no reason why a high quality showing cannot be achieved this week.

Ross Fisher – $7,600 – This is one of those simple picks we can make based on the premise that we believe the player has been undervalued in the market.

Fisher’s formline reads 17-34-58-2-2, and that is a welcome return to the upper reaches of the game for a player whose undoubted talent is sometimes waylaid by a complete lack of self-belief.

An improving record at the Abu Dhabi club, with a pair of top-20s in his last trio of visits, suggests Fisher is starting to take to life in the desert, and while it would be a huge leap of faith to suggest he can win this week a top-10 is certainly there for the taking.

Bryson DeChambeau – $7,300 – As regular followers of the PGA TOUR will know, Bryson DeChambeau is one of those players who likes to scientifically plot his way around the golf course, and with a premium on finding greens here there is no reason why he cannot thrive in these parts.

He actually led after 18 holes here on his tournament debut as a wide-eyed rookie in 2015, and followed up with a top-20 in the Dubai Desert Classic a fortnight later, and so golf in these unique Middle Eastern conditions poses no concerns.

At the age of 24 he has already contended in a Masters and recorded his first PGA TOUR win (the John Deere Classic), and if you asked ‘experts’ to pick their players under 25 to watch, you suspect DeChambeau would feature on a lot of lists.

All of which suggests he is woefully under-priced here.

Hideto Tanihara – $6,900 – Our final pick goes to a player who really shone in last week’s EurAsia Cup.

The Asian team may have gone down to a narrow 10-14 defeat, but Hideto Tanihara and his playing partner Phachara Khongwatmai picked up a pair of points in the ‘doubles’ fixtures by overcoming the pair of Alex Noren and Paul Dunne in the fourballs and foursomes.

Tanihara would go on to lose 2&1 to Henrik Stenson in the singles, but you sense the Japanese player would have taken a lot of confidence from his exploits against guys who are all European Tour winners.

This is his debut at Abu Dhabi but at least he will be familiar with the Paspalum grass that is commonly found on the Japanese Tour circuit, and form in England (T3 at the BMW PGA Championship) suggests a bit of wind won’t put him off his stride.

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