Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2018 CareerBuilder Challenge
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2018 CareerBuilder Challenge
2018 CareerBuilder Challenge Fantasy Preview
The 2017/18 campaign is barely into its stride, and yet one man is enjoying the finest season of his career to date already!
Patton Kizzire backed up his win at the OHL Classic at the tail-end of last year with another fine victory at last week’s Sony Open: an event that will forever be remembered for a catalog of chaotic happenings.
The false alarm of an incoming missile strike in Hawaii unsettled even those with the steeliest of resolve, and strike action from various television crews meant that many viewers were left without pictures and/or sound as they attempted to tune in to a tumultuous Sunday.
Just six strokes separated the top 13 players on the leaderboard heading into the final round, with overnight leader Tom Hoge being chased hard by the in-form Brian Harman, Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk and Kizzire too.
But it was James Hahn who really put the cat among the pigeons; his final round of 62 seeing him fly up the leaderboard and usurp all above him….apart from Kizzire that is.
They both finished on -17, and a topsy-turvy play-off went to the sixth additional hole: Kizzire triumphing on the par 3 seventeenth after Hahn’s approach shot trickled off the green and into the fringe.
It was a fascinating contest and a fitting end to a manic week. Let’s hope this week’s event, the CareerBuilder Challenge, is equally as pulsating!
Phil Mickelson of the United States plays a shot during the second…
Phil Mickelson of the United States plays a shot during the second round of the WGC – HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 27, 2017 in Shanghai, China. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Sony Open
Our picks held up last week with our top selection, Jordan Spieth, charging back from his first round double bogey to finish T18 with 16 birdies and 44 pars on the week.
Our best finisher was our top-mid tier pick Webb Simpson who almost made a run for it on Sunday. Webb knocked down 22 Birdies and 1 Eagle on the week and contributed enough to help plenty of the ‘One and Done’ leaguers.
Lastly, Russel Knox finished T10 and both Reavie and Cook finished in at T18.
Our only missed cut was Jimmy Walker, who we warned to be a very questionable alternative sleeper pick. With this, our made cut percentage now over the first nine events of the wrap around season is over 87%.
Patton Kizzire of the United States poses with the trophy after…
Patton Kizzire of the United States poses with the trophy after winning the Sony Open In Hawaii on the sixth playoff hole against James Hahn at Waialae Country Club on January 14, 2018 in Honolulu,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
In the end, it was Patton Kizzire who got hot late to take home the gold trophy in Maui.
2018 CareerBuilder Challenge Field
The European Tour heads off the Middle East for its money-spinning ‘Gulf Swing’, and so many of the great and good of golf – Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Henrik Stenson ad the returning Rory McIlroy – are off seeking (more) fortune.
So this week feels like something of an overflow event, even though this is a high quality field that should provide an ultimately competitive event.
Jon Rahm rightly takes the honors as headline-maker after his magnificent 12 months, and he will be joined by major champions Phil Mickelson and Zach Johnson as well as Ryder Cupper Patrick Reed.
A number of players head to California for the first of the West Coast Swing events in fine form. Kizzire, Hahn, Harman, Webb Simpson, Russell Knox and Ollie Schneiderjans all filed top-10 finishes at the Sony Open last week, and they will be looking to connect another in La Quinta this time around.
A host of former CareerBuilder Challenge winners, including defending champion Hudson Swafford, Bill Haas, Jhonattan Vegas, Jason Dufner and Brian Gay, are also in town.
Bubba Watson hits his second shot on the 13th hole during the second…
Bubba Watson hits his second shot on the 13th hole during the second round of the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open at the TPC Summerlin on November 3, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
This is one of those unique PGA TOUR events where have not one course to decipher but three!
Our host is the TPC Stadium Course, which hosts one of the three opening rounds of rotation as well as Sunday’s shootout. The other two tracks are the PGA West (Nicklaus) layout and La Quinta Country Club.
The Stadium Course is the jewel in the crown. Golf Digest ranked it as the fourth most difficult course in the USA in their annual report, and it’s a theme that seems to ring true for PGA TOUR pros and amateurs alike….and remember, this CareerBuilder Challenge is a pro-am tournament for the first three days.
Playing at a hefty 7,300 yards for its Par 72, the Stadium layout was designed by Pete Dye and features a pair of punishing final holes. The 17th is called Alcatraz – for the uninitiated, that was also the name of a so-called unescapable prison that housed Al Capone and Whitey Bulger, among others. This par three features an island green and averaged over par last year. The 18th, meanwhile, also averaged over par last year and features a water hazard immediately to the left of the small green.
The Nicklaus Tournament Course is designed by, yep you guessed it, Jack Nicklaus, and it plays a tad easier than the Stadium layout. Measuring 7,204 yards for its Par 72, this is designed as the classic ball-strikers test – as you know the great man likes it – and while there is plenty of room off the tee, the areas around the greens are hazardous at best. Water, sand and thick grass awaits errant approaches, while the sloping and tiered greens reward precision iron play.
Thirdly comes La Quinta CC (Par 72, 7060 yards), with its sumptuous tree-lined fairways, shimmering lakes and immaculate greens. This is the easiest of the three courses, and it was here that Adam Hadwin joined the 59 club just 12 months ago.
Chad Campbell plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round…
Chad Campbell plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round of the CareerBuilder Challenge in partnership with The Clinton Foundation at the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West on January 22,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA
Keep a very close eye on the forecast before setting your line-ups as final, that’s our advice.
In order of complexity from hardest to easiest, there is a clear hierarchy from Stadium Course through to Nicklaus and finally to La Quinta, and it makes sense to ensure that you can take advantage of any draw advantage you can.
For reference, there is an event on the European Tour called the Alfred Dunhill Links, and like the CareerBuilder that is played across three different courses on the opening trio of days. It was noticeable this year that many of the top-20 finishers played the most difficult course on the calmest day weather-wise, and while that is common sense it is important to keep it in mind.
So to the weather in La Quinta this week. The key thing to note is that the forecast is good for all four days, with high temperatures of 75 degrees on Thursday to lows of 66 degrees on Saturday.
So far, so good, and here could be the difference-maker. Thursday and Saturday don’t particularly look set to be too windy, but on Friday for some reason the breeze could top 15 mph; which is certainly strong enough to be a factor. As such, we’d be looking to avoid drafting players who are tackling the Stadium Course on Friday.
Last Year’s Results from the CareerBuilder Challenge
Hudson Swafford bagged the first PGA TOUR title of his career here 12 months ago with a strong show of low scoring.
He opened up with a round of 65 at La Quinta to share T2 with last week’s winner, Patton Kizzire, and sit one shot behind leader Dominic Bozzelli.
Swafford followed up with another round of 65 at the Nicklaus layout to take the lead himself from Bozzelli and Danny Lee, before he was dumped into T3 at the 54-hole stage after recording a -1 round at the Stadium Course. Adam Hadwin, meanwhile, took La Quinta to pieces with his round of 59 to take the outright lead.
But Swafford would make his move on Sunday with a fine round of 67 to pip Hadwin at the post. Brian Harman, Bud Cauley and Bozzelli rounded out the top five.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlAu4Vvxjm0[/embedyt]
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the CareerBuilder Challenge this Week
We’ve spoken at length about the potential for a draw bias this week, and so the advantage lies firmly with gamers who are well researched and keep an eye on the weather. Do that, and you an enter these DraftKings lip-smacking contests with gusto:
- PGA $267 Winner Takes All: Here’s an intriguing new category of contests. Four players enter and the winner bags the whole bounty: in this one, the winner trousers $1k from an entry point of $267.
- PGA $150k Best Ball: A cool $15k awaits the winner of this 22,000 player contest, with the top 95 home earning a minimum of $100. Not bad for an $8 buy in.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the CareerBuilder Challenge
The CareerBuilder Challenge is a difficult tournament to predict given the rotational course policy which naturally opens the door to a clear draw bias. But if we’ve got the forecast right, we should hopefully minimize the potential impact of that.
The next thing gamers should note is the pro-am format, which naturally appeals to some players more than others. A handy guide is to consider past results here and at the AT&T Pebble Beach, which handily is a three-course pro-am event held in California.
As far as the winner’s profile is concerned, Swafford’s set-up last year was as simple as it gets. He ranked first for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and tenth for SG: Approach, and so while he didn’t gain many with his putter he didn’t need to – the damage was done from tee to green.
That was an overarching theme of the week, and when you look at the caliber of players who featured in the top 10 last year – Harman, Cauley, Steele, Chad Campbell and Scott Stallings – we know that straight, accurate hitting is essential.
On that note, it’s worth noting the correlation with a couple of other Pete Dye courses: Harbour Town, which hosts the RBC Heritage, and TPC Sawgrass: the home of THE PLAYERS Championship.
And of course, we remain on Bermuda this week so any hotshots with their putter in Hawaii should follow suit in California.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 70.4, GPFP: 58.00 Salary: $11,100)
It’s fair to say that 2018 is a big year for Patrick Reed. He’s just become a father for the second time, and so the year has started well for him from a personal perspective, and now he just needs to make sure his golf follows suit.
This is a Ryder Cup year, and we all know what that competition means to Reed. Whatever happens in 2018 you’d expect him to be in Team USA – he’d surely get a wildcard in the worst-case scenario – but knowing Patrick he won’t want to have to rely on others’ generosity. He will want to be winning tournaments, finishing high up in the FedExCup standings and simply earning his place through quality performances.
He ended 2017 well with T11 at the CJ Cup, and that was a continuation of his fine form in the second half of the year: T2 at the PGA Championship, T6 at the Dell Technologies, T13 at the TOUR Championship and, of course, a triumphant turn in the President’s Cup team.
The worry for us is that he will be using new clubs for the first time after switching to Nike, and the worry for Reed himself is that he is almost becoming better known for his exploits as a team-based golfer, rather than as an individual; a fact that will alarm the former five-time PGA TOUR winner. Perhaps 2018 is the year he puts that right.
Key Stats (2017):
- Scrambling – 41st
- SG: Around-the-Green – 45th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 67th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Brendan Steele (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 71.0, GPFP: 106.76 Salary: $8,900)
There are three things we like about Brendan Steele this week: he has a fine record in this tournament, is a proud Cali native and has a habit of delivering repeat performances at his favorite courses.
He’s notched top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts in this event, won the Safeway Open twice in back-to-back years, and has connected quality performances at the CIMB Classic (T3 and T13), the Texas Open (T8 and T13) and the Barracuda Championship (T5 and T7).
Previous form at Pete Dye courses (here and T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship last year) adds further incentive.
Typically excellent from tee-to-green (23rd for Strokes Gained in 2017), Steele suits the CareerBuilder Challenge down to the ground.
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Tee to Green – 23rd
- Birdie Average – 32nd
- SG: Approach – 37th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Chris Kirk (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 71.2, GPFP: 53.07 Salary: $8,100)
It’s great to see Chris Kirk returning to something like his best form.
The four-time PGA TOUR winner has had his struggles in recent years, but with back-to-back top-tens to his name – T4 at the RSM Classic, T10 at the Sony Open – it’s clear that the groove is back in his game.
Kirk is always someone to consider on Pete Dye layouts. He’s got a top-10 to his name in this event, as well as a number of impressive showings elsewhere including T12 at TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship 2017) and T5 and T10 at TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic) and Crooked Stick (BMW Championship) respectively.
The stats from the Sony Open show that Kirk was hitting his approaches nicely and scrambling/chipping well too, and we do like to back in-from and confident players in this pro-am format; they are more likely to enjoy the festivities compared to those who are not striking the ball well.
Key Stats (2017):
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 11th
- Driving Accuracy – 51st
- Birdie Average – 56th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Brian Stuard (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 79.5, GPFP: 63.60 Salary: $7,500)
A return to his former swing coach has coincided with Brian Stuard recording four top-25 finishes in his last half-dozen starts, and his game looks in fine fettle right now.
Three of those efforts have been top-10s, and perhaps most impressively he has continued his great form despite the festive break, which could have derailed his momentum.
A former winner at another Pete Dye track, TPC Louisiana, for the 2016 Zurich Classic, Stuard’s short and steady game should suit all three tracks this week, and with a pair of top-10s to his name in this event clearly the pro-am format does not concern him.
Key Stats (2018):
- Driving Accuracy – 8th
- SG: Approach – 55th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 65th
Low-Tier Pick:
Tom Hoge (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPFP: 73.58 Salary: $7,000)
We could be in danger here of ‘after-timing’, which is essentially betting on a horse that has already bolted.
But the key thing to note is that Tom Hoge played very well at the Sony Open, where he enjoyed the 54-hole lead before finishing T3.
He showcased some excellent tee-to-green stats at Waialae and ranked second behind some chap called J. Spieth in the Greens in Regulation metric, and while GIR is one of those much-debated stats the point is that his tee-to-green game is working well.
How high is Hoge’s ceiling as a player? It’s hard to say given that he’s led a rather nomadic existence as a golfer, but the fact he has recorded top-10s in two of his last tour starts suggests there’s plenty more to come from the 28-year-old.
Key Stats (2018):
- SG: Approach the Green – 25th
- SG: Tee to Green – 45th
- Birdie or Better Percentage – 65th
Sleeper Pick for the CareerBuilder Challenge
Kevin Chappell (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 70.9, GPFP: 67.99 Salary: $7,700)
Finally breaking his PGA TOUR duck in 2017, Kevin Chappell has improved exponentially since then.
So the reason he is a sleeper pick is simply because many gamers will take a peek at his course form here – 66-58-8-30-48 – and decide that they can cross him off their shortlist.
But, like we say, we would argue that Chappell is playing better golf now than he has ever done.
Look at his form since April. After finishing T7 at the Masters, the 31-year-old won his first title at the Texas Open shortly after. Further top-10s at the St Jude Classic, the Canadian Open and the Northern Trust, plus his delight at being selected in the President’s Cup team, highlight what a fantastic 2017 Chappell enjoyed.
There’s no reason why he can’t follow up again in 2018 – there’s that Ryder Cup narrative to remember, and back on Californian soil he could get off to the best possible start.
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Tee to Green – 29th
- Birdie or Better Percentage – 48th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 51st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the CareerBuilder Challenge
Ryan Blaum (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 36.13 Salary: $7,300)
Just six players gained +2.00 or more shots from tee-to-green at last week’s Sony Open: James Hahn, Tom Hoge, Jerry Kelly, Chez Reavie, Scott Piercy and Ryan Blaum.
Indeed, if the latter had putted better he may well have finished higher than his T10 return, but don’t forget the greens at Waialae are said to be rather grainy compared to those at the La Quinta estates, and so we’re not losing too much sleep there.
Blaum finished T25 here last year on debut, which is a pretty solid return, and the 34-year-old looks set to be one of those players who enjoys their maturity as a professional golfer a little later in life. A pair of top-10s in 2017 suggests there is plenty of scope for development.
Key Stats (2018):
- SG: Tee to Green: 48th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders: 48th
- SG: Approach: 50th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineup
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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